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Lawrence Weinstein

¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿
Solving Today’s Problems
on the Back of a Napkin

Princeton University Press Princeton and Oxford

Copyright

c 2012 by Lawrence Weinstein
Requests for permission to reproduce material from this work should be sent
to Permissions, Princeton University Press

Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William Street, Princeton,

New Jersey 08540

In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, 6 Oxford Street,

Woodstock, Oxfordshire OX20 1TW

All Rights Reserved

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Weinstein, Lawrence, 1960–
Guesstimation 2.0: solving today’s problems on the back of
a napkin / Lawrence Weinstein.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-691-15080-2 (pbk.: alk. paper) 1. Estimation theory—
Miscellanea. 2. Problem solving—Miscellanea. I. Title.
QA276.8.W45 2012
519.5
44—dc23
2012011182

British Library Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available

This book has been composed in Minion Pro with Scala Sans display
Printed on acid-free paper. ∞
press.princeton.edu
Typeset by S R Nova Pvt Ltd, Bangalore, India
Printed in the United States of America
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
To my parents, who taught me to love learning
Contents

Acknowledgments xi
Preface xiii

1 How to Solve Problems 1

2 General Questions 11
2.1 Who unrolled the toilet paper? 13
2.2 Money height 17
2.3 Blotting out the Sun 19
2.4 Really extra-large popcorn 21
2.5 Building volume 25
2.6 Mass of money 29
2.7 A baseball in a glass of beer 33
2.8 Life on the phone 37
2.9 Money under the bridge 41
2.10 Monkeys and Shakespeare 45
2.11 The titans of siren 49
2.12 Airheads at the movies 53
2.13 Heavy cars and heavier people 55
2.14 Peeing in the pool 59

3 Recycling: What Really Matters? 63

3.1 Water bottles 67
3.2 99 bottles of beer on the wall . . . 71
3.3 Can the aluminum 75
3.4 Paper or plastic? 79
3.5 Paper doesn’t grow on trees! 83
3.6 The rain in Spain . . . 87
3.7 Bottom feeders 91
3.8 You light up my life! 95

vii
4 The Five Senses 101
4.1 Don’t stare at the Sun 103
4.2 Men of vision 105
4.3 Light a single candle 109
4.4 Oh say can you see? 113
4.5 Bigger eyes 117
4.6 They’re watching us! 121
4.7 Beam the energy down, Scotty! 125
4.8 Oh say can you hear? 131
4.9 Heavy loads 135

5 Energy and Work 139

5.1 Power up the stairs 143
5.2 Power workout 145
5.3 Water over the dam 149
5.4 A hard nut to crack 153
5.5 Mousetrap cars 155
5.6 Push hard 159
5.7 Pumping car tires 161
5.8 Pumping bike tires 165
5.9 Atomic bombs and confetti 169

6 Energy and Transportation 173

6.1 Gas-powered humans 177
6.2 Driving across country 181
6.3 Keep on trucking 185
6.4 Keep on biking 189
6.5 Keep on training 193
6.6 Keep on flying 197
6.7 To pee or not to pee 201
6.8 Solar-powered cars 205
6.9 Put a doughnut in your tank 209
6.10 Perk up your car 213
6.11 Don’t slow down 217
6.12 Throwing tomatoes 219

viii Contents
7 Heavenly Bodies 223
7.1 Orbiting the Sun 227
7.2 Flying off the Earth 229
7.3 The rings of Earth 233
7.4 It is not in the stars to hold our destiny 237
7.5 Orbiting a neutron star 241
7.6 How high can we jump? 245
7.7 Collapsing Sun 249
7.8 Splitting the Moon 253
7.9 Splitting a smaller moon 257
7.10 Spinning faster and slower 263
7.11 Shrinking Sun 267
7.12 Spinning Earth 271
7.13 The dinosaur killer and the day 273
7.14 The Yellowstone volcano and the day 277
7.15 The orbiting Moon 281
7.16 The shortest day 283

8 Materials 289
8.1 Stronger than spider silk 291
8.2 Beanstalk to orbit 295
8.3 Bolt failure 299
8.4 Making mountains out of molecules 303
8.5 Chopping down a tree 307

9 Radiation 311
9.1 Nuclear neutrinos 315
9.2 Neutrinos and you 319
9.3 Solar neutrinos 323
9.4 Supernovas can be dangerous 327
9.5 Reviving ancient bacteria 331
9.6 Decaying protons 335
9.7 Journey to the center of the galaxy 337

ix
Appendix A
Dealing with Large Numbers 341
A.1 Large Numbers 341
A.2 Precision, Lots of Digits, and Lying 343
A.3 Numbers and Units 345

Appendix B
Pegs to Hang Things On 347

Bibliography 351
Index 355

x Contents
Acknowledgments

I would like to thank the many people who helped me

write this book (and apologize to those I inadvertantly
omit).
First and foremost, I thank the Physics Department
of Old Dominion University, for providing an in-
tellectually stimulating environment, for encouraging
my interest in estimation, and for tolerating the time
I spend writing. I thank my friend and colleague,
John Adam, for many enjoyable discussions about
the book and for helping to start my writing career
by co-authoring Guesstimation. I thank my editor at
Princeton University Press, Vickie Kearn, for being
helpful, friendly, and supportive during all phases
of the project (and for being so patient when the
manuscript was a bit late). Thanks also to the folks
at the Physics Teacher, who provide space for my
monthly estimation column (from which some of the
problems in this book are modified). I am grateful
to the many colleagues and students who suggested
interesting questions, both for the column and for this
book.
I thank my wife and children, Carol, Lee, and
Rachel, for their specific suggestions and corrections,
for their general support of this project, for their
toleration when I get that vacant look in my eyes and
start mumbling exponents, and for making life fun and
worthwhile.
Lastly, this book is dedicated to my parents. I thank
my father for encouraging my love of mathematics,
and I thank my mother for showing that writing books
is not that scary. When I asked my mother if she had

xi
to be extra careful to be absolutely correct because she
was writing a book, she laughed and responded that
she had far more freedom to write what she wanted in
a book than in a magazine article.
Any errors or omissions in this book are, of course,
all mine.

xii Acknowledgments
Preface

How much is this book worth to you?

That is a typical estimation question. You are not
looking for a precise answer. Your answer will help
determine a future action (e.g., buying the book or
not). And you can answer it in several different ways.
For example, you could consider the value of finally
knowing the answer to that age-old question, “paper
or plastic?” once and for all, so that you no longer need
to agonize over it at the grocery store. You could con-
sider the value of improving your estimation abilities,
either as an enjoyable pastime or as a useful business
skill. You could consider the value of whiling away a
few hours, thinking about interesting problems and
reading amusing solutions. Lastly, you could consider
the value of acing that job interview with Google. If
this book does help you get that high-flying job, please
let me know (I promise not to charge you more for it).
If you estimate that the value of this book is more
than its cover price, then I hope you will buy it. If
you estimate that its value is less than its price, then I
hope you will not buy it (or that you will be pleasantly
surprised when reading it).
This book continues where the popular and widely
reviewed Guesstimation leaves off. We’ll look at prac-
tical questions such as the value of the solar panel on a
Prius and how far we should walk to recycle that water
bottle. We’ll look at impractical questions such as how
far a mousetrap-powered car could travel and whether
there are more brains or air in a movie theater. We’ll
develop the ability to see the news and identify the
numerical bovine coprolites (BS, that is).

xiii
 In addition to learning how to estimate for fun
and profit, we’ll become a lot more familiar with big
numbers. These numbers are all around us, and some
of them are even important. There are a billion people
in China. The federal budget deficit is a trillion dollars.
The president was paid a million dollars. After a while
all these zillions sound the same. However, a trillion
is a thousand times bigger than a billion, which is a
thousand times bigger than a million. A factor of a
thousand is a lot. If you make $50,000 a year, then
you probably don’t worry too much about spending
$50 for something important. Similarly, if the federal
budget deficit is $1 trillion, then we probably shouldn’t
worry too much about spending $1 billion for some-
thing important (assuming that we can agree on what
is important).
Randall Munroe of xkcd.com, describes in a web
comic the difference between a million and a billion
more graphically.

Recognizing that a billion is much larger than a

million can help you avoid some embarrassing errors.
For example, in May 2010 the Dow Jones Industrial

xiv Preface
average plunged one thousand points in just a few
minutes. According to the New York Times, “Federal
officials fielded rumors that the culprit was a single
stock, a single institution or execution system, a $16
billion trade that should have been $16 million” [1].
Oops.
By the way, Google really does use questions like
the following in job interviews. How many golf balls
can fit in a school bus? How many piano tuners are
there in the whole world? [2, 3]. If you can answer
questions like these, you will be more attractive to
companies like Google because it shows that you are
a flexible thinker, are willing to attack imprecise ques-
tions, and can apply your knowledge to real-world
questions.
And you will finally know the answer, if not to the
question of “life, the universe, and everything” [4],
then at least to the question of “paper or plastic?”

xv
 How to Solve Problems

Chapter 1
¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿
Why estimate?
Because we need to know an answer so we can decide
what to do. If we’re deciding whether to drive to
Virginia Beach for the weekend, we need to estimate
how long it will take. If we’re deciding whether to get
a solar panel on our new car, we need to estimate how
much gas it will save. If we’re deciding between paper
and plastic, we need to estimate how much plastic is
in the bags we use each year. All these questions (and
many more) lead to actions. If the drive is too long, we
won’t go to Virginia Beach. If the solar panel generates
enough energy, we’ll buy that option. If we only use a
few pounds of plastic bags in a year, we won’t agonize
over the choice.
We are not looking to determine the answers to
these questions precisely. We just need to deter-
mine them well enough to decide on an action. This
means answers fall into one of the three “Goldilocks”
categories:
1. too big
2. too small
3. just right
If the answer is too big or too small, then the action is
obvious. If the driving time is about 1 hour (too small)
then we will drive to Virginia Beach for the weekend.
If the driving time is about 10 hours (too big) then
we won’t. Only if the driving time is in between (just
right), do we need more information (such as how
much traffic to expect). Similarly, if the solar panel
option on the new car will save about 500 gallons of
gasoline each year (too big), then we will buy the solar
panel. If the solar panel option will only save about
5 gallons of gasoline each year (too small), then we
will not buy it. If it will save an intermediate amount,
then we need to do more work to get a more precise

2 Chapter 1 How to Solve Problems

answer. Similarly, if we use 1 pound (too small) or
1,000 pounds (too big) of plastic bags a year, then our
“paper or plastic” decision is easy. Only if the answer is
intermediate (just right) do we need to do more work
to determine the exact relative environmental impact
of plastic and paper bags. However, the extra work to
achieve that level of precision is way beyond the scope
of this book.
In this book, we will only try to estimate answers to
within a factor of ten, as that will be good enough for
most questions.
How do we estimate? There are three steps and one
technique to make it easier. First, write down the
answer. Second, if necessary, break the problem down
into small pieces. Third, recombine the pieces. The
final step is to compare our answer to the Goldilocks
categories. The technique is to establish boundaries for
the answer rather than to estimate it directly.
Let’s look at this in more detail.

Step 1: Write down the answer to within a factor

of ten.* Many problems are simple enough so that
we can answer them immediately (within a factor
of ten). How long does it take a pumpkin to fall
from a ten-story building? How much does a new
compact car cost? How long does it take to fly across
country? All of these can be answered immediately (10
seconds, $20,000, and 6 hours). However, you need to
remember one principle.

Dare to be imprecise!
None of those answers is precisely correct. Precise an-
swers take a lot more time. However, most questions

*A “factor of ten” refers to the number of zeros in the answer. Is

the answer 1, 10, 100, or 1,000?

3
do not need persnickety precision. If you want to buy
a car and can only afford to spend $5,000, then you
cannot buy a new car. If you can afford to spend
$100,000, then you can buy a new car. Only if you
have an intermediate amount, for example $15,000,
do you need to know the cost of a new car more
precisely.
Of course, if all problems were this easy, you would
not bother with this book. If the problem is more
complicated than that, we need to simplity it.

Break down the problem

Step 2: Break the problem into smaller pieces. Write
down the answer to each of these pieces to within a
factor of ten. If the smaller pieces are still too compli-
cated, break them down further. Then we

Recombine the pieces

Step 3: Take the estimates of each piece and multiply
them together to get the overall estimate. For example,
if we want to estimate the total time that all college
students talk on their cell phones, we would multiply
our estimate of the number of college students by
our estimate of the time each student spends on the
phone.

Estimate by bounding
Technique: It is often easier and more reliable to
estimate upper and lower limits for something than
to estimate the quantity directly. Consider estimating
the amount of time each day that the average col-
lege student spends talking or texting on his or her
cell phone. We don’t know if it is 10, 27, 34 or 62
minutes. However, we can confidently claim that it is

4 Chapter 1 How to Solve Problems

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