Climate Anomalies Influencing MAM Rainfall

1. Overview of MAM Rainfall Season

The MAM season, often called the “long rains” in East Africa, marks a
critical agricultural and hydrological period. It is primarily controlled by the
northward movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ),
which brings moist, unstable air from the Indian Ocean over the region.

However, MAM rainfall is also highly variable from year to year, and this
variability is largely driven by large-scale climate anomalies—oscillations
or disturbances in ocean-atmosphere systems that influence temperature,
pressure, and wind patterns over East Africa.

🌊 Major Climate Anomalies Affecting MAM Rainfall

1. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

 Mechanism:
ENSO is the most dominant driver of interannual rainfall variability in
the tropics. It involves periodic warming (El Niño) and cooling (La Niña)
of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
 Impact on MAM Rainfall:
o El Niño years: Often associated with below-normal MAM
rainfall in much of Tanzania and coastal East Africa.
 This occurs because warming in the Pacific shifts the
Walker Circulation eastward, weakening convection
over East Africa and reducing moisture inflow from the
Indian Ocean.
o La Niña years: Often linked with enhanced MAM rainfall,
since the stronger Walker Circulation supports convection over
the western Indian Ocean and East Africa.
 Supporting Studies:
o Nicholson (2015) and Indeje et al. (2000) found a negative
correlation between MAM rainfall and El Niño events in East
Africa.
o Camberlin and Philippon (2002) reported that while OND (short
rains) often increase during El Niño, MAM (long rains) tend to
be suppressed.

2. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

  Mechanism:
The IOD refers to a seesaw pattern of sea surface temperature (SST)
anomalies between the western and eastern Indian Ocean.
o Positive IOD: Warmer western Indian Ocean and cooler eastern
Indian Ocean near Indonesia.
o Negative IOD: Opposite configuration.
 Impact on MAM Rainfall:
o The IOD influence is stronger during OND, but it still
modulates MAM rainfall through changes in moisture
advection from the Indian Ocean.
o Positive IOD tends to enhance convection and rainfall over East
Africa, while negative IOD suppresses it.
 Studies:
o Black et al. (2003) and Behera et al. (2005) show that weak or
negative IOD events contribute to MAM droughts over Tanzania
and Kenya.

3. Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

 Mechanism:
SST anomalies over the tropical western Indian Ocean (TIO) directly
affect moisture availability and monsoon circulations.
 Impact:
o Warmer western Indian Ocean SSTs promote convection and
moisture convergence, increasing MAM rainfall.
o Conversely, cool SSTs near East Africa reduce convection and
lead to suppressed rainfall.
 Supporting Study:
o Rowell et al. (1995) demonstrated that warm anomalies in the
western Indian Ocean correspond to enhanced rainfall in
coastal Tanzania.

4. Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO)

 Mechanism:
The MJO is an eastward-moving pulse of tropical convection that
recurs every 30–60 days. It influences short-term rainfall variability.
 Impact:
o During active MJO phases (convection over the western Indian
Ocean), rainfall increases over East Africa.
o When MJO convection shifts to the Maritime Continent or Pacific,
subsidence over East Africa suppresses rainfall.
  Relevance:
o The MJO explains intra-seasonal variability and dry spells
within the MAM season.
o Wheeler and Hendon (2004) and Pohl and Camberlin (2006)
identified the MJO as a key driver of wet/dry spells during
MAM.

5. Subtropical Anticyclones and Monsoon Circulation

 Mechanism:
The Mascarene High (southwest Indian Ocean high-pressure system)
and Somali Jet play crucial roles in transporting moisture.
 Impact:
o A strong Mascarene High or weakened Somali Jet can
suppress rainfall over East Africa.
o Conversely, a weakened Mascarene High enhances onshore
flow and moisture convergence.
 Example:
o When the Mascarene High intensifies, subsidence over the
region increases, reducing convection (Hastenrath, 2007).

6. Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) Dynamics

 Mechanism:
The ITCZ migrates northward across Tanzania during March–May. Its
timing, strength, and position determine onset and cessation of
MAM rains.
 Impact:
o Delayed ITCZ migration → late onset or reduced MAM rainfall.
o Early northward shift → early cessation or short rainy season.
 Link with anomalies:
o ENSO and IOD modulate ITCZ position and intensity, hence
affecting rainfall timing and amount.

📈 Summary Table: Effects of Major Climate Anomalies

 Effect on MAM
Climate
Mechanism Rainfall in East Key References
Anomaly
Africa
Warm central/eastern Nicholson (2015),
↓ Reduced
El Niño Pacific SSTs weaken Indeje et al.
rainfall
Walker Circulation (2000)
Cool Pacific enhances
↑ Increased Camberlin &
La Niña convection over western
rainfall Philippon (2002)
Indian Ocean
Warm western Indian ↑ Enhanced Behera et al.
Positive IOD
Ocean SSTs rainfall (2005)
Negative Cool western Indian ↓ Reduced Black et al.
IOD Ocean SSTs rainfall (2003)
MJO Active Enhanced convection over ↑ Short-term Pohl & Camberlin
Phase western Indian Ocean rainfall increase (2006)
Strong
↓ Suppressed Hastenrath
Mascarene Enhanced subsidence
rainfall (2007)
High
↓ Delayed onset /
ITCZ Delay Late northward shift Nicholson (2017)
less rainfall

🌍 Conclusion

MAM rainfall variability in East Africa, including Zanzibar and coastal

Tanzania, is primarily driven by interconnected ocean–atmosphere
anomalies in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

 ENSO and IOD modulate large-scale atmospheric circulation.

 Indian Ocean SSTs and MJO govern sub-seasonal variability.
 Regional systems (ITCZ, Mascarene High, Somali Jet) shape the
local manifestation of these effects.

Understanding these anomalies is essential for predicting rainfall onset,

cessation, and seasonal performance, which has direct implications for
agriculture, water management, and climate adaptation strategies in
Tanzania.

OTHER SOURCE
Overall Conclusion for the MAM Season:
"The primary characteristic of the MAM 'Long Rains' in the Unguja and Pemba
regions is its high interannual variability, marked by alternating years of
extreme wetness and drought. While a very slight non-significant wetting
trend is observed, the dominant feature of the climate is its vulnerability to
extremes. This variability is likely forced by large-scale climate models like
the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD),
rather than by a consistent long-term trend."