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SOFTWARE PROCESS
DYNAMICS

Raymond J. Madachy

IEEE PRESS

WILEY-INTERSCIENCE
A JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC., PUBLICATION
SOFTWARE PROCESS
DYNAMICS
 IEEE Press
445 Hoes Lane
Piscataway, NJ 08854

IEEE Press Editorial Board

Mohamed E. El-Hawary, Editor in Chief

R. Abari T. G. Croda R. J. Herrick

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T. Chen

Kenneth Moore, Director of IEEE Book and Information Services (BIS)

Catherine Faduska, Senior Acquisitions Editor
Jeanne Audino, Project Editor

Technical Reviewers
Raman Aravamudham, University of Iowa
Márcio Barros, UNIRIO/Brazil
Guilherme H. Travassos, COPPE/Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
SOFTWARE PROCESS
DYNAMICS

Raymond J. Madachy

IEEE PRESS

WILEY-INTERSCIENCE
A JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC., PUBLICATION
Copyright © 2008 by the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. All rights reserved.

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.

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Printed in the United States of America.

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
CONTENTS

Foreword xiii
Barry Boehm

Preface xvii

PART 1 FUNDAMENTALS

Chapter 1 Introduction and Background 3

1.1 Systems, Processes, Models, and Simulation 6
1.2 Systems Thinking 8
1.2.1 The Fifth Discipline and Common Models 9
1.2.2 Systems Thinking Compared to System Dynamics 9
1.2.3 Weinberg’s Systems Thinking 10
1.3 Basic Feedback Systems Concepts Applied to the Software Process 10
1.3.1 Using Simulation Models for Project Feedback 13
1.3.2 System Dynamics Introductory Example 14
1.4 Brooks’s Law Example 16
1.4.1 Brooks’s Law Model Behavior 19
1.5 Software Process Technology Overview 22
1.5.1 Software Process Modeling 22
1.5.2 Process Lifecycle Models 29
1.5.3 Process Improvement 40
1.6 Challenges for the Software Industry 45
1.7 Major References 47
1.8 Chapter 1 Summary 48
1.9 Exercises 49
v
.
vi CONTENTS

Chapter 2 The Modeling Process with System Dynamics 53

2.1 System Dynamics Background 54
2.1.1 Conserved Flows Versus Nonconserved Information 55
2.1.2 The Continuous View Versus Discrete Event Modeling 55
2.1.3 Model Elements and Notations 56
2.1.4 Mathematical Formulation of System Dynamics 56
2.1.5 Using Heuristics 60
2.1.6 Potential Pitfalls 60
2.2 General System Behaviors 61
2.2.1 Goal-Seeking Behavior 61
2.2.2 Information Smoothing 63
2.2.3 Example: Basic Structures for General Behaviors 63
2.3 Modeling Overview 64
2.3.1 An Iterative Process 68
2.3.2 Applying the WinWin Spiral Model 70
2.4 Problem Definition 73
2.4.1 Defining the Purpose 73
2.4.2 Reference Behavior 74
2.4.3 Example: Model Purpose and Reference Behavior 75
2.5 Model Conceptualization 75
2.5.1 Identification of System Boundary 78
2.5.2 Causal Loop Diagrams 79
2.6 Model Formulation and Construction 83
2.6.1 Top-Level Formulation 84
2.6.2 Basic Patterns and Rate Equations 90
2.6.3 Graph and Table Functions 96
2.6.4 Assigning Parameter Values 99
2.6.5 Model Building Principles 101
2.6.6 Model Integration 103
2.6.7 Example: Construction Iterations 104
2.7 Simulation 110
2.7.1 Steady-state Conditions 112
2.7.2 Test Functions 113
2.7.3 Reference Behavior 115
2.8 Model Assessment 116
2.8.1 Model Validation 117
2.8.2 Model Sensitivity Analysis 121
2.8.3 Monte Carlo Analysis 125
2.9 Policy Analysis 126
2.9.1 Policy Parameter Changes 127
2.9.2 Policy Structural Changes 128
2.9.3 Policy Validity and Robustness 129
2.9.4 Policy Suitability and Feasibility 130
2.9.5 Example: Policy Analysis 130
2.10 Continuous Model Improvement 131
2.10.1 Disaggregation 132
 CONTENTS vii

2.10.2 Feedback Loops 132

2.10.3 Hypotheses 132
2.10.4 When to Stop? 133
2.10.5 Example: Model Improvement Next Steps 133
2.11 Software Metrics Considerations 134
2.11.1 Data Collection 134
2.11.2 Goal–Question–Metric Framework 135
2.11.3 Integrated Measurement and Simulation 136
2.12 Project Management Considerations 138
2.12.1 Modeling Communication and Team Issues 139
2.12.2 Risk Management of Modeling Projects 140
2.12.3 Modeling Documentation and Presentation 141
2.12.4 Modeling Work Breakdown Structure 142
2.13 Modeling Tools 142
2.14 Major References 145
2.15 Chapter 2 Summary 146
2.15.1 Summary of Modeling Heuristics 148
2.16 Exercises 149

Chapter 3 Model Structures and Behaviors for Software Processes 155

3.1 Introduction 155
3.2 Model Elements 157
3.2.1 Levels (Stocks) 157
3.2.2 Rates (Flows) 159
3.2.3 Auxiliaries 159
3.2.4 Connectors and Feedback Loops 160
3.3 Generic Flow Processes 160
3.3.1 Rate and Level System 160
3.3.2 Flow Chain with Multiple Rates and Levels 161
3.3.3 Compounding Process 162
3.3.4 Draining Process 163
3.3.5 Production Process 163
3.3.6 Adjustment Process 163
3.3.7 Coflow Process 164
3.3.8 Split Flow Process 165
3.3.9 Cyclic Loop 165
3.4 Infrastructures and Behaviors 166
3.4.1 Exponential Growth 166
3.4.2 S-Shaped Growth and S-Curves 167
3.4.3 Delays 169
3.4.4 Balancing Feedback 175
3.4.5 Oscillation 177
3.4.6 Smoothing 180
3.4.7 Production and Rework 182
3.4.8 Integrated Production Structure 183
3.4.9 Personnel Learning Curve 183
viii CONTENTS

3.4.10 Rayleigh Curve Generator 185

3.4.11 Attribute Tracking 186
3.4.12 Attribute Averaging 187
3.4.13 Effort Expenditure Instrumentation 187
3.4.14 Decision Structures 188
3.5 Software Process Chain Infrastructures 192
3.5.1 Software Products 193
3.5.2 Defects 196
3.5.3 People 200
3.6 Major References 203
3.7 Chapter 3 Summary 204
3.8 Exercises 204

PART 2 APPLICATIONS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS

Introduction to Applications Chapters 211

Chapter 4 People Applications 217

4.1 Introduction 217
4.2 Overview of Applications 221
4.3 Project Workforce Modeling 222
4.3.1 Example: Personnel Sector Model 222
4.4 Exhaustion and Burnout 224
4.4.1 Example: Exhaustion Model 224
4.5 Learning 227
4.5.1 Example: Learning Curve Models 231
4.6 Team Composition 234
4.6.1 Example: Assessing Agile Team Size for a Hybrid Process 235
4.7 Other Application Areas 252
4.7.1 Motivation 252
4.7.2 Personnel Hiring and Retention 256
4.7.3 Skills and Capabilities 260
4.7.4 Team Communication 260
4.7.5 Negotiation and Collaboration 261
4.7.6 Simulation for Personnel Training 263
4.8 Major References 265
4.9 Chapter 4 Summary 265
4.10 Exercises 267

Chapter 5 Process and Product Applications 269

5.1 Introduction 269
5.2 Overview of Applications 273
5.3 Peer Reviews 274
5.3.1 Example: Modeling an Inspection-Based Process 275
5.3.2 Example: Inspection Process Data Calibration 289
 CONTENTS ix

5.4 Global Process Feedback (Software Evolution) 291

5.4.1 Example: Software Evolution Progressive and 293
Antiregressive Work
5.5 Software Reuse 299
5.5.1 Example: Reuse and Fourth-Generation Languages 301
5.6 Commercial Off-the-Shelf Software (COTS)-Based Systems 309
5.6.1 Example: COTS Glue Code Development and COTS 310
Integration
5.6.2 Example: COTS-Lifespan Model 317
5.7 Software Architecting 319
5.7.1 Example: Architecture Development During Inception and 319
Elaboration
5.8 Quality and Defects 327
5.8.1 Example: Defect Dynamics 328
5.8.2 Example: Defect Removal Techniques and Orthogonal 330
Defect Classification
5.9 Requirements Volatility 333
5.9.1 Example: Software Project Management Simulator 337
5.10 Software Process Improvement 343
5.10.1 Example: Software Process Improvement Model 346
5.10.2 Example: Xerox Adaptation 354
5.11 Major References 362
5.12 Provided Models 363
5.13 Chapter 5 Summary 363
5.14 Exercises 364

Chapter 6 Project and Organization Applications 369

6.1 Introduction 369
6.1.1 Organizational Opportunities for Feedback 371
6.2 Overview of Applications 372
6.3 Integrated Project Modeling 373
6.3.1 Example: Integrated Project Dynamics Model 373
6.4 Software Business Case Analysis 395
6.4.1 Example: Value-Based Product Modeling 396
6.5 Personnel Resource Allocation 411
6.5.1 Example: Resource Allocation Policy and Contention Models 411
6.6 Staffing 416
6.6.1 Example: Rayleigh Manpower Distribution Model 418
6.6.2 Example: Process Concurrence Modeling 423
6.6.3 Integrating Rayleigh Curves, Process Concurrence, and 441
Brooks’s Interpretations
6.7 Earned Value 442
6.7.2 Example: Earned Value Model 450
6.8 Major References 460
6.9 Provided Models 460
x CONTENTS

6.10 Chapter 6 Summary 460

6.11 Exercises 462

Chapter 7 Current and Future Directions 469

7.1 Introduction 469
7.2 Simulation Environments and Tools 472
7.2.1 Usability 473
7.2.2 Model Analysis 473
7.2.3 Artificial Intelligence and Knowledge-Based Simulation 474
7.2.4 Networked Simulations 475
7.2.5 Training and Game Playing 475
7.3 Model Structures and Component-Based Model Development 476
7.3.1 Object-Oriented Methods 478
7.3.2 Metamodels 478
7.4 New and Emerging Trends for Applications 479
7.4.1 Distributed Global Development 480
7.4.2 User and People-Oriented Focus 482
7.4.3 Agile and Hybrid Processes 482
7.4.4 Commercial Off-the-Shelf Software 484
7.4.5 Open Source Software Development 486
7.4.6 Personnel Talent Supply and Demand 488
7.5 Model Integration 489
7.5.1 Common Unified Models 489
7.5.2 Related Disciplines and Business Processes 490
7.5.3 Meta-Model Integration 491
7.6 Empirical Research and Theory Building 492
7.6.1 Empirical Data Collection for Simulation Models 493
7.7 Process Mission Control Centers, Analysis, and Training Facilities 494
7.8 Chapter 7 Summary 496
7.9 Exercises 498

Appendix A: Introduction to Statistics of Simulation 501

A.1 Risk Analysis and Probability 502
A.2 Probability Distributions 503
A.2.1 Interpreting Probability Distributions 505
A.2.2 Measures of Location, Variability and Symmetry 506
A.2.3 Useful Probability Distributions 508
A.3 Monte Carlo Analysis 515
A.3.1 Inverse Transform 515
A.3.2 Example: Monte Carlo Analysis 516
A.4 Analysis of Simulation Input 521
A.4.1 Goodness-of-Fit Tests 521
A.5 Experimental Design 523
A.5.1 Example: Experimental Design and Model Response Surface 524
 CONTENTS xi

A.6 Analysis of Simulation Output 525

A.6.1 Confidence Intervals, Sample Size, and Hypothesis Testing 525
A.7 Major References 527
A.8 Appendix A Summary 527
A.9 Exercises 529

Appendix B: Annotated System Dynamics Bibliography 531

Appendix C: Provided Models 565

References 571

Index 593
FOREWORD

The pace of change in software-intensive systems continues to accelerate at a dizzying

rate. This presents a huge challenge for people trying to develop useful software. In the
early days of software development, developers could freeze the requirements for the
software, develop the software to the requirements, and deliver the resulting software
two years later with confidence that the requirements would still be relevant and the
software would be useful. Most of our software engineering processes, methods, and
tools were developed and used under the assumption of relatively stable requirements.
Examples are formal specification languages, performance-optimized point-solution
designs, fixed-requirements software-cost estimation, earned-value management sys-
tems, requirements traceability matrices, fixed-price/fixed-requirements contracts, and
a general attitude that “requirements creep” was bad in that it destabilized software de-
velopment.
However, as these practices became increasingly institutionalized, the accelerating
rate of software change made them increasingly risky to use. Projects would use them
for two years and become extremely frustrated when the users were not interested in
the obsolete capabilities that resulted. Projects would fall behind schedule and use sta-
tic models (time to complete = work remaining divided by work rate) to try to make up
time by adding people, and run afoul of Brooks’s law (adding people to a late software
project will make it later). Or they would sprint for the finish line using a point-solu-
tion design that satisfied the initial requirements but was extremely difficult to modify
when trying to satisfy users’ changing requirements.
Ironically, even with all of these difficulties, organizations would increasingly turn
to software and its ability to be electronically upgraded as their best way to adapt their
products, services, and systems to the increasing pace of change in their business or
operational environment.

xiii
.
xiv FOREWORD

In order to keep up with this increased demand for software and the rapid pace of
change, software organizations and projects need better ways to reason about the ef-
fects of change on their software products, projects, and processes. This is often very
difficult to do, as software changes often have complex second-order and higher-order
interaction effects that are hard to visualize and reason about. Thus, for example, a
project with high rates of change in its requirements, being developed by a team with
high rates of change in its personnel, will need to understand and control the interac-
tions of decreased productivity due to change processing, decreased productivity due
to new staff members’ unfamiliarity with the project and product, and loss of produc-
tivity when key staff members are diverted from project work to train and mentor new
people in order to develop increased downstream productivity.
One of the best techniques for reasoning about the effects of such complex interact-
ing changes is the System Dynamics modeling framework that Ray Madachy presents
in this book. As I have found in numerous applications of the method, it enables pro-
ject personnel to model such effects and run the models to better understand the impli-
cations of candidate project strategies and decisions.
From the pioneering application of Jay Forrester’s System Dynamics approach to
software project modeling by Tarek Abdel-Hamid and Stuart Madnick in their 1991
book Software Project Dynamics, system dynamics modeling has been applied to
many aspects of software development and management. These include the analysis of
the effects on software system cost, schedule, and quality of alternative approaches to
software process sequencing, software requirements determination, software architec-
ture and design, software project organization and staffing, software development and
integration, software quality assurance, and software change management. These ap-
plications have constituted the major source of solution approaches in the software
process simulation community and its annual series of ProSim conferences (recently
combined with the Software Process Workshop into the International Conference on
Software Process, held concurrently with the International Conference on Software
Engineering).
Ray Madachy has been a major contributor to this body of work. His experience in
applying system dynamics modeling as a technical leader in such diverse organizations
as the aerospace corporation Litton Systems, the e-commerce system development
company C-Bridge Institute, and the software tools company Cost Xpert Group have
given him a broad and deep perspective on the critical success factors of developing
and applying system dynamics models to various classes of software decision situa-
tions. His experience in teaching and researching these techniques at USC has enabled
him to develop an integrating framework and set of techniques that make system dy-
namics modeling much easier and cost-effective to learn and apply to a software deci-
sion situation.
His resulting book begins with an overview of the systems dynamics modeling
framework, and an example application showing how to develop a system dynamics
model that helps explain the conditions under which you can add people to a software
project with or without having Brooks’s Law apply. Next is an extensive chapter on
the modeling process that introduces concepts and techniques used to develop system
dynamics models, with illustrations of how they are developed and applied. The next
 FOREWORD xv

chapter provides and explains a full range of model structures from modeling mole-
cules to large infrastructures and flow chains that can be used in new models. Once
this framework is established, there are three chapters that apply it to the most signifi-
cant classes of system dynamics applications.
The first of these chapters covers useful applications to software personnel deci-
sions: workforce levels and team composition, learning, burnout, skills, motivation, re-
tention, and rotation effects. The second chapter covers software process and product
decision situations: peer reviews, software reuse, COTS-based system development,
software architecting, and software process improvement effects. The third chapter
covers project and organization applications, such as business case analysis, defect re-
duction strategies, and staffing management strategies. The final chapter projects like-
ly future uses and research challenges in software process modeling and simulation,
including how system dynamics models can add value via integration with other class-
es of models.
The appendices also provide important and one-of-a-kind material. The first appen-
dix covers statistics of simulation, which is not covered in traditional references on
system dynamics. Next is a thorough annotated bibliography of work using system dy-
namics for software processes, and is the definitive compendium for the field. Finally,
the last appendix lists executable models provided with the book. These are used in ex-
amples and can be used for further exercises or for incorporation into your own mod-
els. These are valuable, reusable, and fun assets to go along with the book.
Overall, the book brings together a tremendous amount of useful process modeling
material and experience in using it in practical software decision situations. It orga-
nizes this material into a unifying framework that makes it easier to apply and explain,
and illustrates it with a wide variety of useful examples. I believe that the book will
serve as a standard reference for the software process dynamics field and a great help
to practitioners and researchers for a good long time.

BARRY BOEHM
Los Angeles, California University of Southern California
June 2006
PREFACE

This book is designed for professionals and students in software engineering or infor-
mation technology who are interested in understanding the dynamics of software de-
velopment, or in assessing and optimizing process strategies. Its purpose is to improve
decision making about projects and organizational policies by making its readers better
informed about the dynamic consequences of decisions. Decisions may involve setting
project budgets and schedules; return-on-investment analysis; trade-offs between cost,
schedule, and quality or other factors; personnel hiring; risk management decisions;
make, buy, or reuse; process improvement strategies; and so on.
The importance of process dynamics is hard to refute given the well-known (but too
often ignored) combined effects of schedule pressure, communication overhead,
changing business conditions, requirements volatility and user requests, experience,
work methods such as reviews and quality assurance activities, task underestimation,
bureaucratic delays, organizational shifts, demotivating events, other sociotechnical
phenomena, and the feedback therein. These complex and interacting process effects
are elegantly modeled with system dynamics using continuous quantities interconnect-
ed in loops of information feedback and circular causality. Knowledge of the interre-
lated technical and social factors coupled with simulation tools can provide a means
for organizations to improve their processes.
The objectives of this book are to:

앫 Provide methods, tools, models, and examples to improve management decision

making at all levels. Simulation can support corporate strategy and investment
analysis, business case development, project and portfolio management, and
training, for example.

xvii
xviii PREFACE

앫 Illustrate systems thinking in action to develop increasingly deep understandings

of software process structures and behaviors.
앫 Describe the modeling process, including calibration of models to software met-
rics data.
앫 Show basic building blocks and model infrastructures for software development
processes.
앫 Review the field of software process modeling with system dynamics. Show
how others have used the principles of system dynamics to analyze and improve
processes in organizations.
앫 Provide practical lessons learned about the dynamics of software processes.
앫 Provide sufficient introductory material, including exercises and executable
models on the Internet. Software practitioners who are brand new to simulation
can immediately get their hands dirty and start modeling. Students can learn at
their own pace, delving into the models as deeply as time and interest dictate.
앫 For those experienced in software process simulation, provide more detail of
critical implementation issues and future research motivations.

The book is mostly new material, except for some example applications, and syn-
thesizes previous work in the area. There has been much growth in the field; it has
evolved to a state of maturity, and this book addresses the need to communicate find-
ings. It draws from over 100 publications from practitioners and researchers experi-
enced in system dynamics modeling of processes in organizations (all of them summa-
rized in Appendix B). It is written to be a self-contained learning experience, and a
comprehensive reference for modeling practitioners. The sections are structured so that
readers can approach the subject from different perspectives and gain valuable knowl-
edge for further study and practice depending on their needs.
A constructive understanding of process dynamics is provided by the illustrated
models. Where appropriate, guidelines are presented for process improvement and
general software management strategies (common threads include risk management
and concentrating on people). The perspective in the book addresses the dynamics of
software development, and best practices are described from that view. Some of these
practices are illuminated through simulation experiments herein, and some will be-
come foci of further study.
Readers may be involved in software process improvement, project planning and
management, software development, testing, quality assurance, strategic corporate
planning, organizational learning, education, or simply desire to understand the inter-
related factors of software development. There is no need for sophisticated math skills,
but a passing knowledge of numerical integration concepts will make the introductory
material easier. Readers will increase their understanding of the complexities of soft-
ware development and be able to use system dynamics for modeling and improving
processes in their particular organizations. They will gain insight into the real-world
mechanics behind the modeling equations.
For academic uses, this book may serve as an upper-level or graduate textbook for
Software Process Modeling or other simulation courses. It can be used to support cur-
 PREFACE xix

riculums in Software Engineering, Software Project Management, Software Quality

Assurance, Systems Engineering or related subjects.
Part 1 of the book presents modeling fundamentals for software processes. These
chapters may constitute an entire course for those new to system dynamics modeling.
Advanced students should cover applications and future directions in Part 2. These
topics can be studied in whole or as selected subjects. Other disciplines or focused
studies may choose relevant application topics. For example, researchers in organiza-
tions or sociology might want to cover people applications, engineering process
groups might investigate selected process applications, while senior managers could
focus on project or organizational applications.
The sequence and depth of subjects should be tailored accordingly for any of these
uses. The variety of exercises in the book may serve as homework assignments, exam
questions, or even major research projects. Except for the introductory chapters, de-
tailed equations are generally omitted from the text and left for the reader to study
from the models.
Though a primary objective is to instruct in computer-aided analysis, several identi-
fied exercises early in the book should be done without a computer. This is to help de-
velop intuition of process dynamics, and to strike a balance by not becoming overly re-
liant on blindly using the computer during model development and evaluation of
simulation results. The structure of the book is explained in more detail below.

BOOK ORGANIZATION AND HIGHLIGHTS

This section provides a sequential outline of topics with selected highlights. Each
chapter includes numerous graphics, charts, and tables to help illustrate the material.
The book is also supplemented on the Internet containing the sample models and sim-
ulation tools, exercises, extra references, and updates to the material. The book is di-
vided into two major parts per the outline below:

Part 1—Fundamentals
Chapter 1—Introduction and Background
Chapter 2—The Modeling Process with System Dynamics
Chapter 3—Model Structures and Behaviors for Software Processes
Part 2—Applications and Future Directions
Introduction to Applications Chapters
Chapter 4—People Applications
Chapter 5—Process and Product Applications
Chapter 6—Project and Organization Applications
Chapter 7—Current and Future Directions
Appendices and References
Appendix A—Introduction to Statistics of Simulation
Appendix B—Annotated Bibliography
Appendix C—Provided Models
References
xx PREFACE

Chapter 1 establishes the context and foundation of the book, with a goal of helping
people use models to quantitatively evaluate processes in order to make better deci-
sions. The chapter presents an introduction and background including motivational is-
sues and a capsule history of the field. Definitions of terms are provided for reference
throughout the book. The concepts of systems thinking are introduced, so one can see
how simulation can be used to leverage learning efforts and improve organizational
performance. Control systems principles are introduced, and then a simple motivation-
al example of modeling Brooks’s Law is shown. A review of software process technol-
ogy covers process modeling, lifecycle models, and process improvement.
A description of the iterative modeling process with the system dynamics simula-
tion methodology is provided in Chapter 2. Basic modeling elements and classical sys-
tem behaviors are shown. The underlying mathematical formulation of system dynam-
ics is covered with its ramifications for software process models.
The activities of problem definition, model formulation (including calibration),
simulation, assessment, communication to others, and challenging the model for the
next iteration are elaborated on. Since simulation is both art and science, guidelines
and modeling heuristics are discussed. It is seen that there is much in common with
software engineering principles in general such as iteration, abstraction, aggregation,
and so on, yet there are also aspects of simulation that require somewhat different
skills.
This chapter also details the multiperspective validation of system dynamics mod-
els, which is of paramount importance before drawing policy conclusions from simula-
tion experiments. Different modeling tools and environments are overviewed to help
modelers in choosing appropriate tools for their different needs. Also see Appendix A
on the use of statistics in the modeling process.
Chapter 3 presents patterns of model structures and behaviors for software process-
es. Included is a detailed description of levels, flows, auxiliaries, infrastructures, and
feedback loops instantiated for software processes. State variables of interest include
software work artifacts, defect levels, personnel levels, effort expenditure, schedule
date, and others. Corresponding rates over time include software productivity, defect
introduction and elimination rates, financial flows for costs and revenue, and so on.
Project reference behaviors for different structures and management policies are intro-
duced.
An important contribution of this chapter is the explication of basic flow processes
for software development. Common structures for software processes ferreted out of
the major models (upcoming in Chapters 4 through 6) are shown. Together with proto-
typical feedback loops such as learning and project controlling, these infrastructures
can be (re)used to develop models relevant to any software process. This section also
illustrates a major advantage in system dynamics models over other modeling tech-
niques: inherent cost, schedule, and quality trade-offs by modeling their interactions.
Part 2 covers modeling applications in the field and future directions. Chapter 4 fo-
cuses on people applications, Chapter 5 covers process and product applications, and
Chapter 6 is about projects and organizations. Each chapter contains applications of
varying complexity. An overview of applications and research to date is provided, in-
cluding history, a list of different implementations, and critiques of the various work.
 PREFACE xxi

Modeling examples from the field are shown with sample insights. The examples are
further instances of the generic structures from Chapter 3.
The application examples show threads of simulation modeling with actual model
implementations and worked out examples. These original examples should be of par-
ticular value to system dynamics novices, and more experienced modelers can study
them for additional ideas. Many also amplify some lessons learned regarding the soft-
ware process. Some of the example models are also contained on the accompanying
website. Additional exercises are provided for students to work out and practitioners to
implement. Note that the applications chapters will also be updated online to keep up
with new work.
Chapter 7 presents current and future directions in software process modeling and
simulation. These include advances in simulation environments and tools, model struc-
tures and component-based model development, new and emerging trends for applica-
tion models, model integration (not just system dynamics models), empirical research,
theory building, and putting it all together in process mission control centers and train-
ing facilities.
Appendix A introduces statistics for simulation as an addendum to the modeling
fundamentals about which simulation analysts, researchers, and graduate students
studying broader aspects of simulation must be knowledgeable. Statistical methods are
used to handle the stochastic inputs and outputs of simulation models. The appendix
covers the principles of probability distributions, sample size, confidence intervals,
and experimental design applied to continuous system simulation. Monte Carlo simu-
lation is described and recommended probability distributions for software process
modeling are also provided.
Appendix B is an annotated bibliography of using system dynamics for software
processes and is the most complete set of references for the field. It demonstrates well
the breadth of applications to date and is a convenient place to start researching partic-
ular topics. These same citations are identified in the References in boldface.
Appendix C lists the provided models referenced in the chapters or exercises. These
go along with the examples, and can be executed and modified by readers for their
own purposes. These models will be updated and replaced on the Internet as improve-
ments are made. Models provided by other readers will also be posted.

INTERNET SITES

The referenced models, tools, updates, discussion, and color book information are
available on the world wide web at http://csse.usc.edu/softwareprocessdynamics and at
a mirror site http://softwareprocessdynamics.org.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I would like to extend sincere appreciation to all the other people who contributed to
this work. I initially learned system dynamics for physiological modeling in a graduate
xxii PREFACE

biomedical engineering course at UCSD in 1982 under the excellent direction of Drs.
Alan Schneider and James Bush. This book would not be complete without the accom-
plishments of other researchers and support of colleagues including Dr. Tarek Abel-
Hamid, Richard Adams, Dr. Vic Basili, Dr. James Collofello, Scott Duncan, Dr. Susan
Ferreira, Dr. David Ford, Tobias Haberlein, Jim Hart, Dr. Dan Houston, Dr. Marc
Kellner, Peter Lakey, Dr. Manny Lehman, Dr. Robert Martin, Dr. Margaret Johnson,
Emily oh Navarro, Dr. Nathaniel Osgood, Dr. Dietmar Pfahl, Oliver Pospisil, Dr.
David Raffo, Dr. Juan Ramil, Dr. Stan Rifkin, Dr. Howard Rubin, Dr. Ioana Rus, Dr.
Walt Scacchi, Dr. Neil Smith, Dr. Greg Twaites, Dr. Wayne Wakeland, Dr. Gerry
Weinberg, Dr. Paul Wernick, and Ed Yourdon; Litton personnel including Dr. Denton
Tarbet, Wayne Sebera, Larry Bean, Frank Harvey, and Roy Nakahara; Charles Lein-
bach from C-bridge Institute; Benny Barbe from Cost Xpert Group; and Dr. Julian
Richardson and Dr. Michael Lowry for their support at NASA. USC graduate students
who contributed to this work are Ashwin Bhatnagar, Cyrus Fakharzadeh, Jo Ann Lane,
Dr. Nikunj Mehta, Kam Wing Lo, Jason Ho, Leila Kaghazian, Dr. Jongmoon Baik
(also including post-graduate contributions), and Wook Kim. Profound thanks goes to
Dr. Barry Boehm, who has served as a mentor and been my biggest influence since the
middle of my Ph.D. studies. This book owes much to his continual support, penetrating
insights, and inspiration to contribute. Many thanks to the anonymous IEEE reviewers
for their long hours and detailed constructive reviews, and IEEE staff including Jeanne
Audino, Cathy Faduska, Chrissy Kuhnen, Cheryl Baltes, and Matt Loeb. I also am
most grateful to my wife Nancy for her long-term support and lots of patience, and my
young daughters Zoey and Deziree for extra motivation and lessons on adaptation to
change.

BOOK UPDATES AND MAKING CONTRIBUTIONS

The field of software process modeling itself is quite dynamic, with much happening
in conjunction with other software process work. It has been a challenge keeping up
with the times as this book has progressed, and the rate of change in the industry has
increased over these years. It is inevitable that some things will continue to change, so
the reader is urged to access the Internet site for updates at any time, including new
and improved models.
Updates to the chapters will be put on the book’s Internet site until the next pub-
lished edition. The application Chapters 4–6 will have substantial updates and entire
sections replaced. The goal is to keep the applications current and presented in a uni-
form format. Chapter 7 on current and future directions is a wild card in terms of pre-
dicted changes, and the annotated bibliography will be updated continuously.
It is an exciting time with much opportunity and more work to be done. Hopefully,
some of the ideas and exercises in this book will be used as a basis for further practice
and research. People will provide new and better exercises and those will be posted
too. Your comments on this book and experiences with modeling actual processes are
of great interest to this author, and your feedback will help in developing the next edi-
 PREFACE xxiii

tion. You are encouraged to send any ideas, improvement suggestions, new and en-
hanced models, or worked out exercises from this book. They will be included in fu-
ture editions as appropriate.

RAYMOND J. MADACHY
Los Angeles, California
November 2007
Other documents randomly have
different content
Almerting claimed her for his “steady,” and bought her ice-cream. In
the range of the short block and its confining corners it was all done,
lingering by the curbstone and strolling a half block either way in the
side streets, until she had offended seriously at home, and the threat
was repeated anew. He often tried to persuade her to go on picnics
or outings of various kinds, but this, somehow, was not to be thought
of at her age—at least with him. She knew her father would never
endure the thought, and never even had the courage to mention it,
let alone run away. Mere lingering with him at the adjacent street
corners brought stronger and stronger admonishments—even more
blows and the threat that she should not get in at all.
Well enough she meant to obey, but on one radiant night late in
June the time fled too fast. The moon was so bright, the air so soft.
The feel of far summer things was in the wind and even in this dusty
street. Theresa, in a newly starched white summer dress, had been
loitering up and down with Myrtle when as usual they encountered
Almerting and Goujon. Now it was ten, and the regular calls were
beginning.
“Aw, wait a minute,” said “Connie.” “Stand still. He won’t lock yuh
out.”
“But he will, though,” said Theresa. “You don’t know him.”
“Well, if he does, come on back to me. I’ll take care of yuh. I’ll be
here. But he won’t though. If you stayed out a little while he’d letcha
in all right. That’s the way my old man used to try to do me but it
didn’t work with me. I stayed out an’ he let me in, just the same.
Don’tcha let him kidja.” He jingled some loose change in his pocket.
Never in his life had he had a girl on his hands at any
unseasonable hour, but it was nice to talk big, and there was a club
to which he belonged, The Varick Street Roosters, and to which he
had a key. It would be closed and empty at this hour, and she could
stay there until morning, if need be or with Myrtle Kenrihan. He
would take her there if she insisted. There was a sinister grin on the
youth’s face.
 By now Theresa’s affections had carried her far. This youth with
his slim body, his delicate strong hands, his fine chin, straight mouth
and hard dark eyes—how wonderful he seemed! He was but
nineteen to her eighteen but cold, shrewd, daring. Yet how tender he
seemed to her, how well worth having! Always, when he kissed her
now, she trembled in the balance. There was something in the iron
grasp of his fingers that went through her like fire. His glance held
hers at times when she could scarcely endure it.
“I’ll wait, anyhow,” he insisted.
Longer and longer she lingered, but now for once no voice came.
She began to feel that something was wrong—a greater strain
than if old Rogaum’s voice had been filling the whole neighborhood.
“I’ve got to go,” she said.
“Gee, but you’re a coward, yuh are!” said he derisively. “What ’r
yuh always so scared about? He always says he’ll lock yuh out, but
he never does.”
“Yes, but he will,” she insisted nervously. “I think he has this time.
You don’t know him. He’s something awful when he gets real mad.
Oh, Connie, I must go!” For the sixth or seventh time she moved,
and once more he caught her arm and waist and tried to kiss her, but
she slipped away from him.
“Ah, yuh!” he exclaimed. “I wish he would lock yuh out!”
At her own doorstep she paused momentarily, more to soften her
progress than anything. The outer door was open as usual, but not
the inner. She tried it, but it would not give. It was locked! For a
moment she paused, cold fear racing over her body, and then
knocked.
No answer.
Again she rattled the door, this time nervously, and was about to
cry out.
Still no answer.
 At last she heard her father’s voice, hoarse and indifferent, not
addressed to her at all, but to her mother.
“Let her go, now,” it said savagely, from the front room where he
supposed she could not hear. “I vill her a lesson teach.”
“Hadn’t you better let her in now, yet?” pleaded Mrs. Rogaum
faintly.
“No,” insisted Mr. Rogaum. “Nefer! Let her go now. If she vill
alvays stay oudt, let her stay now. Ve vill see how she likes dot.”
His voice was rich in wrath, and he was saving up a good beating
for her into the bargain, that she knew. She would have to wait and
wait and plead, and when she was thoroughly wretched and
subdued he would let her in and beat her—such a beating as she
had never received in all her born days.
Again the door rattled, and still she got no answer. Not even her
call brought a sound.
Now, strangely, a new element, not heretofore apparent in her
nature but nevertheless wholly there, was called into life, springing in
action as Diana, full formed. Why should he always be so harsh?
She hadn’t done anything but stay out a little later than usual. He
was always so anxious to keep her in and subdue her. For once the
cold chill of her girlish fears left her, and she wavered angrily.
“All right,” she said, some old German stubbornness springing up,
“I won’t knock. You don’t need to let me in, then.”
A suggestion of tears was in her eyes, but she backed firmly out
onto the stoop and sat down, hesitating. Old Rogaum saw her,
lowering down from the lattice, but said nothing. He would teach her
for once what were proper hours!
At the corner, standing, Almerting also saw her. He recognized the
simple white dress, and paused steadily, a strange thrill racing over
him. Really they had locked her out! Gee, this was new. It was great,
in a way. There she was, white, quiet, shut out, waiting at her father’s
doorstep.
 Sitting thus, Theresa pondered a moment, her girlish rashness
and anger dominating her. Her pride was hurt and she felt
revengeful. They would shut her out, would they? All right, she would
go out and they should look to it how they would get her back—the
old curmudgeons. For the moment the home of Myrtle Kenrihan
came to her as a possible refuge, but she decided that she need not
go there yet. She had better wait about awhile and see—or walk and
frighten them. He would beat her, would he? Well, maybe he would
and maybe he wouldn’t. She might come back, but still that was a
thing afar off. Just now it didn’t matter so much. “Connie” was still
there on the corner. He loved her dearly. She felt it.
Getting up, she stepped to the now quieting sidewalk and strolled
up the street. It was a rather nervous procedure, however. There
were street cars still, and stores lighted and people passing, but
soon these would not be, and she was locked out. The side streets
were already little more than long silent walks and gleaming rows of
lamps.
At the corner her youthful lover almost pounced upon her.
“Locked out, are yuh?” he asked, his eyes shining.
For the moment she was delighted to see him, for a nameless
dread had already laid hold of her. Home meant so much. Up to now
it had been her whole life.
“Yes,” she answered feebly.
“Well, let’s stroll on a little,” said the boy. He had not as yet quite
made up his mind what to do, but the night was young. It was so fine
to have her with him—his.
At the farther corner they passed Officers Maguire and Delahanty,
idly swinging their clubs and discussing politics.
“’Tis a shame,” Officer Delahanty was saying, “the way things are
run now,” but he paused to add, “Ain’t that old Rogaum’s girl over
there with young Almerting?”
“It is,” replied Maguire, looking after.
 “Well, I’m thinkin’ he’d better be keepin’ an eye on her,” said the
former. “She’s too young to be runnin’ around with the likes o’ him.”
Maguire agreed. “He’s a young tough,” he observed. “I never liked
him. He’s too fresh. He works over here in Myer’s tobacco factory,
and belongs to The Roosters. He’s up to no good, I’ll warrant that.”
“Teach ’em a lesson, I would,” Almerting was saying to Theresa as
they strolled on. “We’ll walk around a while an’ make ’em think yuh
mean business. They won’t lock yuh out any more. If they don’t let
yuh in when we come back I’ll find yuh a place, all right.”
His sharp eyes were gleaming as he looked around into her own.
Already he had made up his mind that she should not go back if he
could help it. He knew a better place than home for this night,
anyhow—the club room of the Roosters, if nowhere else. They could
stay there for a time, anyhow.
By now old Rogaum, who had seen her walking up the street
alone, was marveling at her audacity, but thought she would soon
come back. It was amazing that she should exhibit such temerity, but
he would teach her! Such a whipping! At half-past ten, however, he
stuck his head out of the open window and saw nothing of her. At
eleven, the same. Then he walked the floor.
At first wrathful, then nervous, then nervous and wrathful, he finally
ended all nervous, without a scintilla of wrath. His stout wife sat up in
bed and began to wring her hands.
“Lie down!” he commanded. “You make me sick. I know vot I am
doing!”
“Is she still at der door?” pleaded the mother.
“No,” he said. “I don’t tink so. She should come ven I call.”
His nerves were weakening, however, and now they finally
collapsed.
“She vent de stread up,” he said anxiously after a time. “I vill go
after.”
 Slipping on his coat, he went down the stairs and out into the
night. It was growing late, and the stillness and gloom of midnight
were nearing. Nowhere in sight was his Theresa. First one way and
then another he went, looking here, there, everywhere, finally
groaning.
“Ach, Gott!” he said, the sweat bursting out on his brow, “vot in
Teufel’s name iss dis?”
He thought he would seek a policeman, but there was none.
Officer Maguire had long since gone for a quiet game in one of the
neighboring saloons. His partner had temporarily returned to his own
beat. Still old Rogaum hunted on, worrying more and more.
Finally he bethought him to hasten home again, for she must have
got back. Mrs. Rogaum, too, would be frantic if she had not. If she
were not there he must go to the police. Such a night! And his
Theresa—— This thing could not go on.
As he turned into his own corner he almost ran, coming up to the
little portico wet and panting. At a puffing step he turned, and almost
fell over a white body at his feet, a prone and writhing woman.
“Ach, Gott!” he cried aloud, almost shouting in his distress and
excitement. “Theresa, vot iss dis? Wilhelmina, a light now. Bring a
light now, I say, for himmel’s sake! Theresa hat sich umgebracht.
Help!”
He had fallen to his knees and was turning over the writhing,
groaning figure. By the pale light of the street, however, he could
make out that it was not his Theresa, fortunately, as he had at first
feared, but another and yet there was something very like her in the
figure.
“Um!” said the stranger weakly. “Ah!”
The dress was gray, not white as was his Theresa’s, but the body
was round and plump. It cut the fiercest cords of his intensity, this
thought of death to a young woman, but there was something else
about the situation which made him forget his own troubles.
 Mrs. Rogaum, loudly admonished, almost tumbled down the stairs.
At the foot she held the light she had brought—a small glass oil-lamp
—and then nearly dropped it. A fairly attractive figure, more girl than
woman, rich in all the physical charms that characterize a certain
type, lay near to dying. Her soft hair had fallen back over a good
forehead, now quite white. Her pretty hands, well decked with rings,
were clutched tightly in an agonized grip. At her neck a blue silk
shirtwaist and light lace collar were torn away where she had
clutched herself, and on the white flesh was a yellow stain as of one
who had been burned. A strange odor reeked in the area, and in one
corner was a spilled bottle.
“Ach, Gott!” exclaimed Mrs. Rogaum. “It iss a vooman! She haf
herself gekilt. Run for der police! Oh, my! oh, my!”
Rogaum did not kneel for more than a moment. Somehow, this
creature’s fate seemed in some psychic way identified with that of
his own daughter. He bounded up, and jumping out his front door,
began to call lustily for the police. Officer Maguire, at his social game
nearby, heard the very first cry and came running.
“What’s the matter here, now?” he exclaimed, rushing up full and
ready for murder, robbery, fire, or, indeed, anything in the whole
roster of human calamities.
“A vooman!” said Rogaum excitedly. “She haf herself umgebracht.
She iss dying. Ach, Gott! in my own doorstep, yet!”
“Vere iss der hospital?” put in Mrs. Rogaum, thinking clearly of an
ambulance, but not being able to express it. “She iss gekilt, sure. Oh!
Oh!” and bending over her the poor old motherly soul stroked the
tightened hands, and trickled tears upon the blue shirtwaist. “Ach, vy
did you do dot?” she said. “Ach, for vy?”
Officer Maguire was essentially a man of action. He jumped to the
sidewalk, amid the gathering company, and beat loudly with his club
upon the stone flagging. Then he ran to the nearest police phone,
returning to aid in any other way he might. A milk wagon passing on
its way from the Jersey ferry with a few tons of fresh milk aboard, he
held it up and demanded a helping.
 “Give us a quart there, will you?” he said authoritatively. “A
woman’s swallowed acid in here.”
“Sure,” said the driver, anxious to learn the cause of the
excitement. “Got a glass, anybody?”
Maguire ran back and returned, bearing a measure. Mrs. Rogaum
stood looking nervously on, while the stocky officer raised the golden
head and poured the milk.
“Here, now, drink this,” he said. “Come on. Try an’ swallow it.”
The girl, a blonde of the type the world too well knows, opened her
eyes, and looked, groaning a little.
“Drink it,” shouted the officer fiercely. “Do you want to die? Open
your mouth!”
Used to a fear of the law in all her days, she obeyed now, even in
death. The lips parted, the fresh milk was drained to the end, some
spilling on neck and cheek.
While they were working old Rogaum came back and stood
looking on, by the side of his wife. Also Officer Delahanty, having
heard the peculiar wooden ring of the stick upon the stone in the
night, had come up.
“Ach, ach,” exclaimed Rogaum rather distractedly, “und she iss
oudt yet. I could not find her. Oh, oh!”
There was a clang of a gong up the street as the racing
ambulance turned rapidly in. A young hospital surgeon dismounted,
and seeing the woman’s condition, ordered immediate removal. Both
officers and Rogaum, as well as the surgeon, helped place her in the
ambulance. After a moment the lone bell, ringing wildly in the night,
was all the evidence remaining that a tragedy had been here.
“Do you know how she came here?” asked Officer Delahanty,
coming back to get Rogaum’s testimony for the police.
“No, no,” answered Rogaum wretchedly. “She vass here alretty. I
vass for my daughter loog. Ach, himmel, I haf my daughter lost. She
iss avay.”
 Mrs. Rogaum also chattered, the significance of Theresa’s
absence all the more painfully emphasized by this.
The officer did not at first get the import of this. He was only
interested in the facts of the present case.
“You say she was here when you come? Where was you?”
“I say I vass for my daughter loog. I come here, und der vooman
vass here now alretty.”
“Yes. What time was this?”
“Only now yet. Yussed a half-hour.”
Officer Maguire had strolled up, after chasing away a small crowd
that had gathered with fierce and unholy threats. For the first time
now he noticed the peculiar perturbation of the usually placid
German couple.
“What about your daughter?” he asked, catching a word as to that.
Both old people raised their voices at once.
“She haf gone. She haf run avay. Ach, himmel, ve must for her
loog. Quick—she could not get in. Ve had der door shut.”
“Locked her out, eh?” inquired Maguire after a time, hearing much
of the rest of the story.
“Yes,” explained Rogaum. “It was to schkare her a liddle. She
vould not come ven I called.”
“Sure, that’s the girl we saw walkin’ with young Almerting, do ye
mind? The one in the white dress,” said Delahanty to Maguire.
“White dress, yah!” echoed Rogaum, and then the fact of her
walking with some one came home like a blow.
“Did you hear dot?” he exclaimed even as Mrs. Rogaum did
likewise. “Mein Gott, hast du das gehoert?”
He fairly jumped as he said it. His hands flew up to his stout and
ruddy head.
 “Whaddy ya want to let her out for nights?” asked Maguire roughly,
catching the drift of the situation. “That’s no time for young girls to be
out, anyhow, and with these toughs around here. Sure, I saw her,
nearly two hours ago.”
“Ach,” groaned Rogaum. “Two hours yet. Ho, ho, ho!” His voice
was quite hysteric.
“Well, go on in,” said Officer Delahanty. “There’s no use yellin’ out
here. Give us a description of her an’ we’ll send out an alarm. You
won’t be able to find her walkin’ around.”
Her parents described her exactly. The two men turned to the
nearest police box and then disappeared, leaving the old German
couple in the throes of distress. A time-worn old church-clock nearby
now chimed out one and then two. The notes cut like knives. Mrs.
Rogaum began fearfully to cry. Rogaum walked and blustered to
himself.
“It’s a queer case, that,” said Officer Delahanty to Maguire after
having reported the matter of Theresa, but referring solely to the
outcast of the doorway so recently sent away and in whose fate they
were much more interested. She being a part of the commercialized
vice of the city, they were curious as to the cause of her suicide. “I
think I know that woman. I think I know where she came from. You
do, too—Adele’s, around the corner, eh? She didn’t come into that
doorway by herself, either. She was put there. You know how they
do.”
“You’re right,” said Maguire. “She was put there, all right, and
that’s just where she come from, too.”
The two of them now tipped up their noses and cocked their eyes
significantly.
“Let’s go around,” added Maguire.
They went, the significant red light over the transom at 68 telling
its own story. Strolling leisurely up, they knocked. At the very first
sound a painted denizen of the half-world opened the door.
 “Where’s Adele?” asked Maguire as the two, hats on as usual,
stepped in.
“She’s gone to bed.”
“Tell her to come down.”
They seated themselves deliberately in the gaudy mirrored parlor
and waited, conversing between themselves in whispers. Presently a
sleepy-looking woman of forty in a gaudy robe of heavy texture, and
slippered in red, appeared.
“We’re here about that suicide case you had to-night. What about
it? Who was she? How’d she come to be in that doorway around the
corner? Come, now,” Maguire added, as the madam assumed an air
of mingled injured and ignorant innocence, “you know. Can that stuff!
How did she come to take poison?”
“I don’t know what you’re talking about,” said the woman with the
utmost air of innocence. “I never heard of any suicide.”
“Aw, come now,” insisted Delahanty, “the girl around the corner.
You know. We know you’ve got a pull, but we’ve got to know about
this case, just the same. Come across now. It won’t be published.
What made her take the poison?”
Under the steady eyes of the officers the woman hesitated, but
finally weakened.
“Why—why—her lover went back on her—that’s all. She got so
blue we just couldn’t do anything with her. I tried to, but she wouldn’t
listen.”
“Lover, eh?” put in Maguire as though that were the most unheard-
of thing in the world. “What was his name?”
“I don’t know. You never can tell that.”
“What was her name—Annie?” asked Delahanty wisely, as though
he knew but was merely inquiring for form’s sake.
“No—Emily.”
 “Well, how did she come to get over there, anyhow?” inquired
Maguire most pleasantly.
“George took her,” she replied, referring to a man-of-all-work about
the place.
Then little by little as they sat there the whole miserable story
came out, miserable as all the wilfulness and error and suffering of
the world.
“How old was she?”
“Oh, twenty-one.”
“Well, where’d she come from?”
“Oh, here in New York. Her family locked her out one night, I
think.”
Something in the way the woman said this last brought old
Rogaum and his daughter back to the policemen’s minds. They had
forgotten all about her by now, although they had turned in an alarm.
Fearing to interfere too much with this well-known and politically
controlled institution, the two men left, but outside they fell to talking
of the other case.
“We ought to tell old Rogaum about her some time,” said Maguire
to Delahanty cynically. “He locked his kid out to-night.”
“Yes, it might be a good thing for him to hear that,” replied the
other. “We’d better go round there an’ see if his girl’s back yet. She
may be back by now,” and so they returned but little disturbed by the
joint miseries.
At Rogaum’s door they once more knocked loudly.
“Is your daughter back again?” asked Maguire when a reply was
had.
“Ach, no,” replied the hysterical Mrs. Rogaum, who was quite
alone now. “My husband he haf gone oudt again to loog vunce more.
Oh, my! Oh, my!”
 “Well, that’s what you get for lockin’ her out,” returned Maguire
loftily, the other story fresh in his mind. “That other girl downstairs
here to-night was locked out too, once.” He chanced to have a girl-
child of his own and somehow he was in the mood for pointing a
moral. “You oughtn’t to do anything like that. Where d’yuh expect
she’s goin’ to if you lock her out?”
Mrs. Rogaum groaned. She explained that it was not her fault, but
anyhow it was carrying coals to Newcastle to talk to her so. The
advice was better for her husband.
The pair finally returned to the station to see if the call had been
attended to.
“Sure,” said the sergeant, “certainly. Whaddy ya think?” and he
read from the blotter before him:
“‘Look out for girl, Theresa Rogaum. Aged 18; height, about 5, 3;
light hair, blue eyes, white cotton dress, trimmed with blue ribbon.
Last seen with lad named Almerting, about 19 years of age, about 5,
9; weight 135 pounds.’”
There were other details even more pointed and conclusive. For
over an hour now, supposedly, policemen from the Battery to
Harlem, and far beyond, had been scanning long streets and dim
shadows for a girl in a white dress with a youth of nineteen,—
supposedly.
Officer Halsey, another of this region, which took in a portion of
Washington Square, had seen a good many couples this pleasant
summer evening since the description of Theresa and Almerting had
been read to him over the telephone, but none that answered to
these. Like Maguire and Delahanty, he was more or less indifferent
to all such cases, but idling on a corner near the park at about three
a.m., a brother officer, one Paisly by name, came up and casually
mentioned the missing pair also.
“I bet I saw that couple, not over an hour ago. She was dressed in
white, and looked to me as if she didn’t want to be out. I didn’t
happen to think at the time, but now I remember. They acted sort o’
funny. She did, anyhow. They went in this park down at the Fourth
Street end there.”
“Supposing we beat it, then,” suggested Halsey, weary for
something to do.
“Sure,” said the other quickly, and together they began a careful
search, kicking around in the moonlight under the trees. The moon
was leaning moderately toward the west, and all the branches were
silvered with light and dew. Among the flowers, past clumps of
bushes, near the fountain, they searched, each one going his way
alone. At last, the wandering Halsey paused beside a thick clump of
flaming bushes, ruddy, slightly, even in the light. A murmur of voices
greeted him, and something very much like the sound of a sob.
“What’s that?” he said mentally, drawing near and listening.
“Why don’t you come on now?” said the first of the voices heard.
“They won’t let you in any more. You’re with me, ain’t you? What’s
the use cryin’?”
No answer to this, but no sobs. She must have been crying
silently.
“Come on. I can take care of yuh. We can live in Hoboken. I know
a place where we can go to-night. That’s all right.”
There was a movement as if the speaker were patting her on the
shoulder.
“What’s the use cryin’? Don’t you believe I love yuh?”
The officer who had stolen quietly around to get a better view now
came closer. He wanted to see for himself. In the moonlight, from a
comfortable distance, he could see them seated. The tall bushes
were almost all about the bench. In the arms of the youth was the girl
in white, held very close. Leaning over to get a better view, he saw
him kiss her and hold her—hold her in such a way that she could but
yield to him, whatever her slight disinclination.
It was a common affair at earlier hours, but rather interesting now.
The officer was interested. He crept nearer.
 “What are you two doin’ here?” he suddenly inquired, rising before
them, as though he had not seen.
The girl tumbled out of her compromising position, speechless and
blushing violently. The young man stood up, nervous, but still defiant.
“Aw, we were just sittin’ here,” he replied.
“Yes? Well, say, what’s your name? I think we’re lookin’ for you
two, anyhow. Almerting?”
“That’s me,” said the youth.
“And yours?” he added, addressing Theresa.
“Theresa Rogaum,” replied the latter brokenly, beginning to cry.
“Well, you two’ll have to come along with me,” he added
laconically. “The Captain wants to see both of you,” and he marched
them solemnly away.
“What for?” young Almerting ventured to inquire after a time,
blanched with fright.
“Never mind,” replied the policeman irritably. “Come along, you’ll
find out at the station-house. We want you both. That’s enough.”
At the other end of the park Paisly joined them, and, at the station-
house, the girl was given a chair. She was all tears and melancholy
with a modicum possibly of relief at being thus rescued from the
world. Her companion, for all his youth, was defiant if circumspect, a
natural animal defeated of its aim.
“Better go for her father,” commented the sergeant, and by four in
the morning old Rogaum, who had still been up and walking the
floor, was rushing stationward. From an earlier rage he had passed
to an almost killing grief, but now at the thought that he might
possibly see his daughter alive and well once more he was
overflowing with a mingled emotion which contained rage, fear,
sorrow, and a number of other things. What should he do to her if
she were alive? Beat her? Kiss her? Or what? Arrived at the station,
however, and seeing his fair Theresa in the hands of the police, and
this young stranger lingering near, also detained, he was beside
himself with fear, rage, affection.
“You! You!” he exclaimed at once, glaring at the imperturbable
Almerting, when told that this was the young man who was found
with his girl. Then, seized with a sudden horror, he added, turning to
Theresa, “Vot haf you done? Oh, oh! You! You!” he repeated again to
Almerting angrily, now that he felt that his daughter was safe. “Come
not near my tochter any more! I vill preak your effery pone, du teufel,
du!”
He made a move toward the incarcerated lover, but here the
sergeant interfered.
“Stop that, now,” he said calmly. “Take your daughter out of here
and go home, or I’ll lock you both up. We don’t want any fighting in
here. D’ye hear? Keep your daughter off the streets hereafter, then
she won’t get into trouble. Don’t let her run around with such young
toughs as this.” Almerting winced. “Then there won’t anything
happen to her. We’ll do whatever punishing’s to be done.”
“Aw, what’s eatin’ him!” commented Almerting dourly, now that he
felt himself reasonably safe from a personal encounter. “What have I
done? He locked her out, didn’t he? I was just keepin’ her company
till morning.”
“Yes, we know all about that,” said the sergeant, “and about you,
too. You shut up, or you’ll go down-town to Special Sessions. I want
no guff out o’ you.” Still he ordered the butcher angrily to be gone.
Old Rogaum heard nothing. He had his daughter. He was taking
her home. She was not dead—not even morally injured in so far as
he could learn. He was a compound of wondrous feelings. What to
do was beyond him.
At the corner near the butcher shop they encountered the wakeful
Maguire, still idling, as they passed. He was pleased to see that
Rogaum had his Theresa once more. It raised him to a high,
moralizing height.
“Don’t lock her out any more,” he called significantly. “That’s what
brought the other girl to your door, you know!”
 “Vot iss dot?” said Rogaum.
“I say the other girl was locked out. That’s why she committed
suicide.”
“Ach, I know,” said the husky German under his breath, but he had
no intention of locking her out. He did not know what he would do
until they were in the presence of his crying wife, who fell upon
Theresa, weeping. Then he decided to be reasonably lenient.
“She vass like you,” said the old mother to the wandering Theresa,
ignorant of the seeming lesson brought to their very door. “She vass
loog like you.”
“I vill not vip you now,” said the old butcher solemnly, too delighted
to think of punishment after having feared every horror under the
sun, “aber, go not oudt any more. Keep off de streads so late. I von’t
haf it. Dot loafer, aber—let him yussed come here some more! I fix
him!”
“No, no,” said the fat mother tearfully, smoothing her daughter’s
hair. “She vouldn’t run avay no more yet, no, no.” Old Mrs. Rogaum
was all mother.
“Well, you wouldn’t let me in,” insisted Theresa, “and I didn’t have
any place to go. What do you want me to do? I’m not going to stay in
the house all the time.”
“I fix him!” roared Rogaum, unloading all his rage now on the
recreant lover freely. “Yussed let him come some more! Der
penitentiary he should haf!”
“Oh, he’s not so bad,” Theresa told her mother, almost a heroine
now that she was home and safe. “He’s Mr. Almerting, the stationer’s
boy. They live here in the next block.”
“Don’t you ever bother that girl again,” the sergeant was saying to
young Almerting as he turned him loose an hour later. “If you do,
we’ll get you, and you won’t get off under six months. Y’ hear me, do
you?”
“Aw, I don’t want ’er,” replied the boy truculently and cynically. “Let
him have his old daughter. What’d he want to lock ’er out for? They’d
better not lock ’er out again though, that’s all I say. I don’t want ’er.”
“Beat it!” replied the sergeant, and away he went.
 WILL YOU WALK INTO MY PARLOR?
It was a sweltering noon in July. Gregory, after several months of
meditation on the warning given him by his political friend, during
which time nothing to substantiate it had occurred, was making
ready to return to the seaside hotel to which his present prosperity
entitled him. It was a great affair, the Triton, about sixty minutes from
his office, facing the sea and amid the pines and sands of the Island.
His wife, ‘the girl,’ as he conventionally referred to her, had been
compelled, in spite of the plot which had been revealed or
suggested, owing to the ailing state of their child, to go up to the
mountains to her mother for advice and comfort. Owing to the
imminence of the fall campaign, however, he could not possibly
leave. Weekdays and Sundays, and occasionally nights, he was
busy ferreting out and substantiating one fact and another in regard
to the mismanagement of the city, which was to be used as
ammunition a little later on. The mayor and his “ring,” as it was
called, was to be ousted at all costs. He, Gregory, was certain to be
rewarded if that came to pass. In spite of that he was eminently
sincere as to the value and even the necessity of what he was doing.
The city was being grossly mismanaged. What greater labor than to
worm out the details and expose them to the gaze of an abused and
irritated citizenship?
But the enemy itself was not helpless. A gentleman in the
publishing business of whom he had never even heard called to offer
him a position in the Middle West which would take him out of the
city for four or five years at the least, and pay him six or seven
thousand dollars a year. On his failure to be interested some of his
mail began to disappear, and it seemed to him as though divers
strange characters were taking a peculiar and undue interest in his
movements. Lastly, one of the politicians connected with his own
party called to see him at his office.
 “You see, Gregory, it’s this way,” he said after a short preamble,
“you have got a line as to what’s going on in connection with that
South Penyank land transfer. The mayor is in on that, but he is
absolutely determined that the public is not going to find it out, and
so is his partner, Tilney—not until after the election, anyhow. They
are prepared to use some pretty rough methods, so look out for
yourself. You’re fond of your wife, are you? Well, keep her close
beside you, and the kid. Don’t let them get you away from her, even
for a moment, where you shouldn’t be. You saw what happened to
Crothers two or three years ago, didn’t you? He was about to expose
that Yellow Point Ferry deal, but of course no one knew anything
about that—and then, zip!—all at once he was arrested on an old
charge of desertion, an old debt that he had failed to pay was
produced and his furniture seized, and his wife was induced to leave
him. Don’t let them catch you in the same way. If you have any debts
bring them to us and let us see what we can do about them. And if
you are interested in any other woman, break it off, send her away,
get rid of her.”
Gregory viewed him with an irritated, half-pitying smile.
“There isn’t any other woman,” he said simply. Think of his being
faithless to “the girl” and the kid—the blue-eyed, pink-toed kid!
“Don’t think I’m trying to pry into your affairs,” went on the
politician. “I’m just telling you. If you need any further advice or help,
come to me. But whatever you do, look out for yourself,” and with
that he put on his high silk hat and departed.
Gregory stood in the center of his office after his visitor had gone,
and gazed intently at the floor. Certainly, from what he had
discovered so far, he could readily believe that the mayor would do
just what his friend had said. And as for the mayor’s friend, the real
estate plunger, it was plain from his whispered history that no tricks
or brutalities were beneath him. Another politician had once said in
describing him that he would not stop short of murder, but that one
would never catch him red-handed or in any other way, and certainly
that appeared to be true. He was wealthier, more powerful, than he
had ever been, much more so than the mayor.
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