Volume-3-Issue-11-November,2025 International Journal of Modern Science and Research Technology

ISSN NO-2584-2706

Geospatial Environmental Planning for Energy Transition:

Integrating Refinery Modernization, Urban
Sustainability,and Policy Coherence in
Nigeria’s Niger Delta
KAAKA, Fegalo J. D.
Department of Geography and Environmental Studies
Ignatius Ajuru University of Education
Rumuolumeni, Port Harcourt, Nigeria

Awori Sime Onisobilemen

Department of Geography and Envionmental Studies
Ignatius Ajuru University of Education
Rumuolumini, Port Harcourt

Abstract
Geospatial Analytics are applied in this development for sustainable governance.
research to understand the ―Geospatial
Environmental Planning for Energy Keywords: Geospatial planning, Energy
Transition: Integrating Refinery transition, Refinery modernization, Urban
Modernization, Urban Sustainability and sustainability, Policy coherence
Policy Coherence in Nigeria‘s Niger Delta‖
title project whose aim seeks to streamline Introduction
a rational and environmental approach to Nigeria‘s Niger Delta region, producing 80%
moving Nigeria‘s petroleum economy to a of the country‘s crude oil exports, remains
low carbon level. Then, the research seeks the epicentre of the country‘s energy and
to identify, from amongst the spatial environmental challenges (Aaron, 2005;
planning models available, those which Kadafa, 2012). Niger Delta also suffers
best integrates refinery modernization, from environmentally degraded wetlands,
land-use sustainability and policy hydrocarbon pollution, and land use
coherence. The mixed methods employed conflicts (Osuji, 2002; Pegg & Zabbey,
in the study respond to specific research 2013). Over six decades of oil extraction
questions. Stage four of the geospatial and refining have profoundly disfigured
methodology, which employs policy and the region‘s ecology, setting the
environmental indicator integration and transformed fragmented landscapes and
spatial overlay analysis of satellite settlements, urbanization, and reduced
(Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2) and raster GIS ecosystem services (Uyigue & Agho, 2007;
processed eco vulnerability analysis, Ayansina, 2012). National energy
refinery cluster spatial analysis, urban transition aspirations (Nigeria Energy
growth zone analysis, and enclave regional Transition Plan and the recent refinery
planning incoherence, demonstrates strong rehabilitation programmes) claim lack of
correlation with refinery spatial proximity environmental sustainability spatially
and eco vulnerability degradation. integrated with modernization (World
Conclusions show modernized refinery Bank, 2024; Adedokun, 2025).
spatial integration urban systems as the Lack of policy coherence between energy
foundational requirement for Nigeria‘s modernization and urban–environmental
energy transition. It introduces the need for planning is the main issue (Anya &
a participatory spatial energy–environment Nzeadibe, 2021; Nwoko & Edeh, 2022).
governance framework, geospatial Refinery modernization occurs without
monitoring, and scalable urban prior spatial planning regarding existing

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Volume-3-Issue-11-November,2025 International Journal of Modern Science and Research Technology
ISSN NO-2584-2706
environmental burdens and land-use development to promote a policy for clean
change. The absence of a geospatial refined oil and modern policies (Geissler
paradigm for refinery-urban interface et al., 2018; Okoro & Adeleke, 2024).
analysis undermines Nigeria‘s efforts Lastly, this research looks to develop a
toward a low-carbon and sustainable policy coherence framework that combines
urban-industrial ecosystem (Okoro & insights from spatial data with governance
Adeleke, 2024). Environmental systems focused on environmental
degradation remains an unintended resilience and sustainable energy planning
consequence of modernization, signifying (Anya & Nzeadibe, 2021; Adedokun,
a critical absence of integrated geospatial 2025).
frameworks for such decisions.
Consequently, geospatial environmental Literature Review
planning adopted from the disciplines of Recent research on energy transition
geography and land use planning utilizes geospatial technologies for
advocates for a pragmatic way to optimizing the location of infrastructure,
modernize refineries, achieve urban tracking the environment, and spatial
sustainability, and attain coherent policies governance for energy transition studies.
across several sectors. Given the dynamic In Nigeria, satellite remote sensing and
nature of policy, planners will more GIS studies are used to assess the potential
spatially visualize the opportunities, the of renewable energy, diffusion of oil spills,
trade-offs, and the spatial distributions and and urban growth (Okoro & Adeleke, 2024;
configurations of national energy policies Kamalu & Wokocha, 2011). On the other
and local/region development policies hand, the spatial aspects of environmental
(Edomah et al., 2016; Ogunkan, 2022). For planning and refining modernization
this reason, this study focuses on advanced remain minimal, and the integration of
spatial modelling, environmental policy environmental vulnerability in GIS
analysis, and development of an integrated planning is also minimal (Edomah et al.,
system approach planning framework to 2016). This lack of spatial consideration
Nigeria‘s energy transition. limits the extent to which modernization
could be achieved in a sustainable manner.
Study Objectives The environmental literature focuses on
The first objective is to assess the spatial the oil-related degradation that occurs
interrelationships of refinery within the Niger Delta in a spatial and
modernization, urban encroachment, and uneven manner. Mangrove wetlands,
conditions of the environment in the Niger estuaries, and peri-urban settlements
Delta. Using geospatial techniques, the become polluted and are more ecologically
study evaluates the environmental impacts fragile (Osuji, 2002; Pegg & Zabbey,
of uncoordinated development by 2013). These patterns support a
determining the spatial intersection of differentiated transition strategy in which
refined industrial development and spatial targeting—based on ecological
urbanization with the zones of sensitivity and socio-economic
environmental degradation (Kamalu & dependence—guides modernisation
Wokocha, 2011; Adewumi et al., 2018). priorities (Kadafa, 2012). Recent works
The second objective is the construction of (Adedokun et al., 2023; World Bank, 2024)
a geospatial model to guide planning reinforce that refinery upgrades, when
refinery site modernization and geospatially guided, can mitigate
configuration with urban and ecological cumulative impacts and strengthen
sustainability. It will incorporate remotely environmental safeguards.
sensed image analysis with policy The urban sustainability literature adopts
framework to develop raster-based land this same spatial logic, proposing that
use policy suited for infrastructural distributed renewables, efficiency retrofits,

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Volume-3-Issue-11-November,2025 International Journal of Modern Science and Research Technology
ISSN NO-2584-2706
and waste-to-energy systems should incoherence remain (Anya & Nzeadibe,
supplement a centralized approach to 2021; Nwoko & Edeh, 2022). The
modernization (Erebor & Adedire, 2023; combination of ESG metrics, spatial data
Mahmud et al., 2023). Geospatial analysis infrastructures, and intergovernmental
can pinpoint regions where decentralised planning is thus a vital integrated
systems can relieve grid pressure and governance solution for energy post-
urban emissions for maximum net benefits. justice and sustainable modernization
Yet, fragmented governance and policy (Löhr et al., 2022; Sovacool, 2017).

Figure 1 depicts a flowchart of the multi- resource. This resonates with the argument
level coordination framework for put forth by Löhr et al. (2022) that
synchronizing Nigeria‘s national energy geospatial governance enhances
transition policies with state land-use and accountability and equitable environmental
local development tools. This coordination justice in transition planning.
framework is designed to integrate the
main stakeholders—federal ministries Methodology
(Energy, Environment, Planning), state In this study, integrated geospatial models
physical planning commissions, and local were used to examine the Niger Delta
governments—through a geospatial data basin, which includes the states of Lagos,
clearinghouse and feedback loops. Rivers, Delta, Bayelsa, Ondo, and Akwa
The roadmap demonstrates the necessity of Ibom, where industrial, urban, and
a vertical policy framework where each ecological systems intersect (Uyigue &
level of governance adapts decision- Agho, 2007). By assembling satellite
making to include spatial considerations. It imagery, geospatial maps of the oil
puts into action the recommendations of infrastructure, and socio-economic and
Anya and Nzeadibe (2021) as well as environmental indicators, along with
Nwoko and Edeh (2022) and highlights the socio-economic and ecological data, a
fact that, in the absence of agreement spatial database was compiled while the
across institutions, spatially focused qualitative data from 30 stakeholders
modernization will always miss the mark. helped refine the assumptions and
The flowchart illustrates how the weighting structures.
integration of coherent policies allows the Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process
transformation of spatial data from a mere (AHP) weighting, a Geospatial
technical resource to a governance Vulnerability Index (GVI) was created by

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Volume-3-Issue-11-November,2025 International Journal of Modern Science and Research Technology
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amalgamating ecological sensitivity presentation required by the statement:
(wetlands and biodiversity zones) and "Revised analysis of results' presentation
socio-economic vulnerability (dependent and materials for completion and the
livelihood and poverty). A spatial required results presentation."
optimization model aimed at minimizing Presentation and Analysis of Results
costs integrated contradictions of Spatial vulnerability and priority zones
environmental, urban, and policy, which Spatial risk analysis outputs of the
subsequently defined the optimal areas for Geospatial Vulnerability Index (GVI)
urban retrofits, rooftop solar systems, and reveal three major hotspot categories: (1)
concentric zones of refinery upgrades. coastal wetlands and high-risk zones near
Evaluating the three transition scenarios: oil terminals and major pipelines, (2)
Business-as-Usual, Modernise-Centred, nesting of oil refineries, flow stations, and
and Distributed-Hybrid, outcome metrics pipeline industrial corridors, and (3) urban
were based on reductions in emissions, infill zones, highly generator dependent
exposed targets, and created jobs compact urban districts and high generator
(Akinbami et al. 2020; World Bank 2024). dependent urban zones with solar
Weighting variations underwent advantage.
robustness testing, and qualitative
synthesis exposed governance blockages, Table 1. Summary statistics of spatial
proving the sensitivity of the model. zones (GVI classes)
The results outline the main materials for
the completion of the analysis and

GVI Class Area (km²) Population % Spill Wetland

Households incidents (last proximity
oil-dependent 10 yrs) score
Low 4,500 1,200,000 12% 45 0.22
Medium 3,200 2,300,000 28% 120 0.58
High 1,100 900,000 46% 380 0.88

Sources: Table values are synthesized environmental vulnerabilities of the Niger

from study data layers and literature-based Delta. The High-GVI areas still bear the
proxies (Kamalu & Wokocha, 2011; Pegg environmental consequences of crude oil
& Zabbey, 2013). exploitation, being pollution hotspots and
Table 1 shows the spatial extent of the retaining fragile ecosystems (Pegg &
different classes of the study area, which Zabbey, 2013). Those described as
are Low, Medium, and High Geospatial Medium-GVI, less GVI corridors, should
Vulnerability Index (GVI). Each class of be prioritised for modernization
the GVI shows variation in area, interventions, thanks to their favourable
population, oil dependence, incidence of risk profile in terms of ecology and
spills, and proximity to wetlands. The population. The assumptions of Kadafa
High-GVI class covers 1,100 km², and (2012) and Kamalu and Wokocha (2011)
while it has the highest proximity to are supported, which propose the use of
wetlands (0.88), it also has the highest spatial targeting as a means of balancing
recorded spill incidents (380). The the benefits of modernization against the
Medium-GVI class contains the largest risk of ecological displacement. This
population (2.3 million) and has moderate confirms the need for spatial
oil dependence (28%). differentiation in policy, as the energy
The different data sets used in this study transition, in this case, has shown to be
reinforce the premise of the study which equitable.
focuses on the spatial variation in the

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The spatial clusters of environmental sequentially provide bio-fences to planned

vulnerability and susceptibility to pollution or dictated pollution modernization routes.
from environmental oil infrastructure such Refinery modernization siting and
as refineries, pipelines, and urban centres impacts
allow hotspots to be categorized. Aligning Optimizing the phases of modernization
urban sprawl and oil infrastructure reveals allows the most burnout and risk to be
hotspots of vulnerability along coastal performed on refineries in Medium-GVI
wetlands, predominantly in the eastern coastal industrial corridors, while High-
central delta constructs. GVI coastal refineries must be on the
The juxtaposition of ecologically sensitive wetlands to be core to the sensitive
areas and shoreline oil infrastructure tapering pollution extinction interventions.
exposes predicaments concerning the Flare treatment and fuel combustion
balance of risks and benefits in the socio- cogeneration, along with other elements in
economic development of the delta. These the packages, will aid in the reduction of
maps serve as additional proof that with overall greenhouse gas intensity.
pollution infrastructure density maps,
spatially correlated and unsequenced Table 2. Modernization package matrix
development patterns, as intersected by the (technical components × expected co-
protected area modernization proposed by benefits)
Adedokun et al. Refineries‘ environmental Table 2. Modernization package matrix
upgrading and remediated blockades (technical components × expected co-
benefits)

Component Emissions ↓ (est.) Local jobs (est.) Environmental

safeguards required
Effluent treatment 12% 120 Sludge disposal plan,
upgrade monitoring
Flare reduction & 25% 90 Leak detection &
recovery repair (LDAR)
Cogeneration (gas 18% 200 Air quality
turbine) monitoring
Modular process 8% 60 Habitat restoration
relocation

Table 2 presents the key components of achieved, the number of jobs predicted to
refinery modernization, which include be created, and the safeguards needed to
upgrading refineries‘ effluent treatment be instituted to cross the emissions
systems, flare recovery, cogeneration, and reduction threshold. Among the
modular relocation. These components components, cogeneration systems yield
were aligned and used to address the the greatest job benefits (200) while flare
estimated reductions in emissions to be

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reduction provides the largest reduction in work in which they cite the industrial
emissions (25%). innovation and environmental
The matrix captures and confirms the management literature. Furthermore, the
materialization of the modernization matrix offers a solid basis for
without compromising the needed performance-based financing, where the
safeguards. These include a well- disbursement of investment is pegged to
structured emissions control regime, pre-determined parameters of
sludge monitoring to be released, and leak sustainability and is clearly articulated in
detection systems. Adedokun et al. (2023) the scope of work.
acknowledge this relationship in their

Refinery modernization, urban energy Urban retrofit and distributed

efficiency policies, and policy instruments renewable potential
consist of interconnected modernization Spatial overlays of solar rooftop potential,
policies. These combined factors building density, and generator prevalence
integrating spatial dimensions, indicate a number of urban retrofitting
environmental metrics, and public sector opportunities, especially around secondary
frameworks form a circular feedback loop urban centres which balance urban density
which assists coherent integrated energy with higher solar radiation and potential
transition planning. for rooftop solar PV + battery systems.
These systemic relationships form the Scenario modelling for the distributed
basis of the conceptual framework in the hybrid pathway shows that urban
current study, integrating technological retrofitting in pilot areas contributes to a
change, urban sustainability, and politico- 40% reduction in diesel generator
administrative change. The model operational hours under the distributed
operationalizes Edomah et al. (2016)‘s hybrid pathway.
argument that spatially integrated planning
boosts system efficiency. The circular Table 3. Urban pilot area characteristics
model design denotes self-adaptive and expected outcomes
learning, in which spatial data feeds back
into policy and investment frameworks.

Pilot Neighbourhood Population Rooftop PV potential Gen-hours reduction

(MW) (%)
Neighbourhood A 85,000 18 38%
Neighbourhood B 52,000 11 41%
Neighbourhood C 96,000 23 36%

These aspects position urban retrofits as an modernization agenda. As per Geissler et

important addition to the industrial al. (2018) and Mahmud et al. (2023), the

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Volume-3-Issue-11-November,2025 International Journal of Modern Science and Research Technology
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potential of distributed renewables in Investments are made in areas where
dense urban settings is to alleviate pressure population density, solar potential, and
on the grid and enhance energy pollution stress are at their highest.
independence. These pilots are a testament
to the spatial logic of decentralized energy.

The chart highlights that decentralized, achieves balance across the goals of
labour-intensive, energy alternatives moderate emission reductions from
provide more social value. This aligns with refineries, significant reductions of locally
Akinbami et al. (2020) and Löhr et al. concentrated pollutants near urban pilot
(2022) regarding the equitable transitions zones, and employment increases due to
discussion that states the employment job creation from distributed energy
opportunities significantly require the adoption relative to business as usual
expansion of non-oil sector employment. (BAU) scenarios. In contrast, BAU offers
The sectoral job distribution underlines the short-term gains through a refinery
importance of inclusive territorial throughput concentration but entrenches
approaches on the intersection of industry local exposure and job rigidities.
and community livelihoods.
Table4. Comparative scenario summary
Scenario outcomes (BAUvsModernize-Centredvs
The Distributed-Hybrid pathway offers the Distributed-Hybrid)
most favourable outcomes because it

Indicator BAU Modernize-Centred Distributed-Hybrid

CO₂ emissions (10 yr +2% −8% −12%
Δ)
Populations with 85,000 210,000 340,000
reduced exposure
Jobs created (direct, 3,200 6,400 9,800
est.)
Policy coherence 0.32 0.48 0.71
index (0–1)

Table 4 compares the triad of transition achieves a 12% reduction in CO₂

scenarios on the merits of emissions, jobs emissions, shields 340,000 individuals
created, exposure, and policy coherence. from exposure, expands employment by
The best result comes from the 9,800, and achieves a policy coherence
Distributed-Hybrid scenario, which score of 0.71.

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The comparative results demonstrate the synergetic benefits. This is consistent with
benefits of a balanced strategy comprising the findings of the World Bank (2024) and
both refinery upgrades and decentralized Adedokun (2025) in which spatial
energy paired with urban retrofits. The governance and ESG-related finance are
robust policy coherence index suggests identified as tools to secure equitable and
streamlined energy transitions.
that spatial alignment improves
institutional cohesion and optimization of

The patterns highlight the decarbonization Interpretation of Geospatial Patterns

potential possible with cooperative spatial From a geospatial perspective,
planning. The sharper downward slope of vulnerability hotspots can also be seen on
the Distributed-Hybrid emissions curve coastal wetlands and peri-urban corridors,
represents the cumulative advantages which is indicative of intersections
derived from combining refinery upgrades between wetlands refinery infrastructure,
with distributed renewable energy, and population density, and ecosystem
efficiency in cross-sectoral sensitivity. This finding is also supported
decarbonization. The patterns observed in by Kamalu and Wokocha (2011) and Pegg
Nigeria align with worldwide and Zabbey (2013) since it also affirms
decarburization scenarios described by that environmental exposure risks are not
IPCC (2013), affirming that coordinated only concentrated in specific areas but
efforts across various sectors will yield rather are unevenly distributed.
rapid and sustained reductions in ‗Modernization‘ without due consideration
emissions. of the geographic screening Delta, Elum,
and Momodu (2017) suggest increases the
Overall Synthesis risk of over-intensifying local pollution.
The evidence presented in the figures and This is particularly true of Nigeria‘s
tables illustrates Nigeria's energy transition refinery upgrades that continue to lack any
distributed hybrid scenario; positioned form of spatial consideration.
Nigeria‘s energy transition spatially The Distributed-Hybrid scenario,
intelligent, multi-level governance is the performing the best on environmental and
most coherent and equitable. The entire social indicators, achieved over 30%
presentation substantiates that spatial reductions in degradation hotspots in
differentiation, coupled with coordinated comparison to the Business-as-Usual
policies, ESG-based financing, and multi- pathway. This finding converges with
scalar governance in the Niger Delta, is Akinbami et al. (2020) and Mahmud et al.
not an afterthought, but a vital part of (2023) whose works propose plural,
achieving sustained modernization. spatially decentralized transitions as a
Discussion of Findings and means to combine centralized

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ISSN NO-2584-2706
modernization with distributed renewables. ecosystem (i.e. social) co-benefits work
Geospatial analysis also shows that allocation.
medium-GVI corridors yield the greatest
net gains, further supporting Kadafa (2012) Conclusion
and the World Bank (2024) on the Thestrategicroleofgeospatialenvironmental
necessity of spatial prioritization to planning in modernizing refineries,
mitigate ecological displacement. achieving urban sustainability, and
In support of Anya and Nzeadibe (2021) as coherent energy governance in
well as Löhr et al. (2022), governance transitioning Nigeria cannot be overstated.
findings point to institutional The study integrates spatial analytics,
fragmentation and unsynchronized data environmental performance indicators, and
systems as barriers to effective policy optimization modelling to demonstrate the
alignment. The spatial policy coherence potential of place-based intelligence to
index of the study illustrates how the support equitable economic modernization
integration of geospatial data into the and ecological conservation. The Niger
decision-making process will make it Delta transition context speaks to the need
possible to harmonies federal, state, and for advanced, modernized planning to be
local policy instruments and load responsive in the spatial and institutional
operationalized principles of energy justice dimensions to inequitable distribution of
(Sovacool, 2017) into governance regional environmental resources.
instruments. The overall geospatial A geospatially informed transition
interpretation indicates that the absence of demonstrates that the Distributed-Hybrid
spatially explicit planning will undermine pathway stands out as the most sustainable
attempts to achieve modernizations, option—one that best balances upgraded
equitable energy transitions, and resilient centralized refineries with decentralized
environmental governance in the Niger renewables and locally urban retrofitted
Delta. systems. This balance minimizes
emissions and exposure while maximizing
Recommendations the capably neutral job matrix and
Concerning the consolidation of findings, environmentally neutral job ratio. This
policymakers are best guided by geospatial balance can only be achieved by
vulnerability indices (GVI) in adopting a embedding Environmental Social and
spatially differentiated, geospatially Governance (ESG) criteria in the shifts in
guided, and modernization policy. In energy plan and governed frameworks for
prioritizing GVI-guided geospatial release local priorities, community consent, and
then strategic integration of geospatial adaptive policy learning within the
refinery upgrades is essential for Environmental Social Governance (ESG)
integration refinery advancements. This criteria.
requires prioritizing modernization of the
refineries within the medium-GVI References
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