Discrete Probability Distributions
Chapter-4
Probability Distribution
Probabilities tell you??? how likely certain events. What probability does not tell. overall impact of these events and, what it means to you?
In this chapter we will see how to use probability to predict long-term outcomes and also measure the certainty of these predictions
Probability Distribution
Random Variables Discrete Probability Distributions Expected value and Variance Binomial Distribution Poisson Distribution Hypergeometric Distribution
Random Variables
A random variable is a numerical description of the Which is a variable that outcome of an experiment. can take a set of values,
A discrete random variable may finite number of values or an infinite sequence of values.
where each value is associated with a assume either a specific probability
A continuous random variable may assume any numerical value in an interval or collection of intervals. Eg:- Time, weight, distance, and temperature can be described by continuous random variables.
Example: XYZ Mart
Number of customers visiting the store 101 No. of days this level was Observed 5 7 Probability that Random Variable will take on this value 0.05 0.07 0.08 0.09
102 103
104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 Total
8
9 10 12 12 11 10 9 7 100
0.1 0.12
0.12 0.11 0.1 0.09 0.08 1.00
Example: XYZ Mart
Probability
0.14 0.12
0.1
0.08 Probability 0.06
0.04
0.02
0 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111
Random Variables
Question Family size
Random Variable x x = Number of dependents reported on tax return
Type Discrete Continuous Discrete
Distance from x = Distance in miles from home to the store site home to store Own dog or cat x = 1 if own no pet; = 2 if own dog(s) only; = 3 if own cat(s) only; = 4 if own dog(s) and cat(s)
Discrete Probability Distribution
The probability distribution for a random variable describes how probabilities are distributed over the values of the random variable.
We can describe a discrete probability distribution with a table, graph, or equation.
Discrete Probability Distribution
The probability distribution is defined by a probability function, denoted by f(x), which provides the probability for each value of the random variable.
The required conditions for a discrete probability function are: f(x) > 0 f(x) = 1
Discrete Probability Distribution
Number of Days 80 50 40 10 20 200
A tabular representation of the probability distribution for TV sales
80/200
Units Sold 0 1 2 3 4
x 0 1 2 3 4
f(x) .40 .25 .20 .05 .10 1.00
Discrete Probability Distribution
Graphical Representation of Probability Distribution
.50
Probability
.40
.30 .20 .10
Values of Random Variable x (TV sales)
Discrete Uniform Probability Distribution
The discrete uniform probability distribution is the simplest example of a discrete probability distribution given by a formula. The discrete uniform probability function is f(x) = 1/n
the values of the random variable are equally likely
where: n = the number of values the random variable may assume
Expected Value
The expected value, or mean, of a random variable is a measure of its central location. E(x) = = xf(x) The variance summarizes the variability in the values of a random variable.
Var(x) = 2 = (x - )2f(x)
The standard deviation, , is defined as the positive square root of the variance.
Expected Value
x 0 1 2 3 4 f(x) xf(x) .40 .00 .25 .25 .20 .40 .05 .15 .10 .40 E(x) = 1.20
expected number of TVs sold in a day
Expected Value
Variance and Standard Deviation
x
0 1 2 3 4
x-
-1.2 -0.2 0.8 1.8 2.8
(x - )2
1.44 0.04 0.64 3.24 7.84
f(x)
.40 .25 .20 .05 .10
(x - )2f(x)
.576 .010 .128 .162 .784
Variance of daily sales = 2 = 1.660
Standard deviation of daily sales = 1.2884 TVs
Binomial Distribution
It is associated with a multi-step experiment Four Properties of a Binomial Experiment
1. The experiment consists of a sequence of n identical trials.
2. Two outcomes, success and failure, are possible on each trial.
3. The probability of a success, denoted by p, does not change from trial to trial.
4. The trials are independent.
Binomial Distribution
Binomial Probability Function
n! f (x) p x (1 p )( n x ) x !(n x )!
where: f(x) = the probability of x successes in n trials n = the number of trials p = the probability of success on any one trial
Could x be a Continuous Random Variable?
Binomial Distribution
Example:Evans is concerned about a low retention rate for employees. In recent years, management has seen a turnover of 10% of the hourly employees annually. Thus, for any hourly employee chosen at random, management estimates a probability of 0.1 that the person will not be with the company next year.
Binomial Distribution
Using the Binomial Probability Function Choosing 3 hourly employees at random, what is the probability that 1 of them will leave the company this year?
Let: p = .10, n = 3, x = 1
n! f ( x) p x (1 p ) (n x ) x !( n x )!
3! f (1) (0.1)1 (0.9)2 3(.1)(.81) .243 1!(3 1)!
Binomial Distribution
Decision Tree
1st Worker 2nd Worker 3rd Worker L (.1) S (.9) L (.1) Stays (.9) S (.9) Leaves (.1) Stays (.9) Stays (.9) L (.1) S (.9) L (.1)
x
3 2
Leaves (.1)
Leaves (.1)
Prob. .0010 .0090
2
1 2 1 1 0
.0090
.0810 .0090
.0810
.0810 .7290
S (.9)
Binomial Distribution
Expected Value E(x) = = np Variance Var(x) = 2 = np(1 p)
Standard Deviation
np(1 p )
Binomial Distribution
Expected Value E(x) = = 3(.1) = .3 employees out of 3 Variance Var(x) = 2 = 3(.1)(.9) = .27 Standard Deviation
3(.1)(.9) .52 employees
Binomial Distribution
Harish is in charge of the electronics section of a large departmental store. He has noticed that the probability that a customer who is just browsing will buy something is 0.3. Suppose that 15 customers browse in the electronics section each Hour, then 1. What is the Prob. that at least one browsing customer will buy something during a specific hour. 2. What is the Prob. that at least four browsing customer will buy something during a specific hour. 3. What is the Prob. that no browsing customer will buy anything during a specific hour. 4. What is the Prob. that no more than four browsing customers will buy something during a specific hour.
