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GOODREADS | what is the future likely to bring? A reasonable stance might be to try to look at the human species from the outside. So imagine that youre an extraterrestrial observer who is trying to figure out whats happening here or, for that matter, imagine youre an historian 100 years from now assuming there are any historians 100 years from now, which is not obvious and youre looking back at whats happening today. Youd see something quite remarkable. For the first time in the history of the human species, we have clearly developed the capacity to destroy ourselves. Thats been true since 1945. Its now being finally recognized that there are more long-term processes like environmental destruction leading in the same direction, maybe not to total destruction, but at least to the destruction of the capacity for a decent existence. And there are other dangers like pandemics, which have to do with globalization and interaction. So there are processes underway and institutions right in place, like nuclear weapons systems, which could lead to a serious blow to, or maybe the termination of, an organized existence.
How to Destroy a Planet without Really Trying
The question is: What are people doing about it? None of this is a secret. Its all perfectly open. In fact, you have to make an effort not to see it. There have been a range of reactions. There are those who are trying hard to do something about these threats, and others who are acting to escalate them. If you look at who they are, this future historian or extraterrestrial observer would see something strange indeed. Trying to mitigate or overcome these threats are the least developed societies, the indigenous populations, or the remnants of them, tribal societies and first nations in Canada. Theyre not talking about nuclear war but environmental disaster, and theyre really trying to do something about it.
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Ecuador, which also has a large indigenous population, is the only oil exporter I know of where the government is seeking aid to help keep that oil in the ground, instead of producing and exporting it and the ground is where it ought to be. Meanwhile, the United States, the richest and most powerful country in world history, is the only nation among perhaps 100 relevant ones that doesnt have a national policy for restricting the use of fossil fuels, that doesnt even have renewable energy targets. Its not because the population doesnt want it. Americans are pretty close to the international norm in their concern about global warming. Its institutional structures that block change. Business interests dont want it and theyre overwhelmingly powerful in determining policy, so you get a big gap between opinion and policy on lots of issues, including this one. So thats what the future historian if there is one would see. He might also read todays scientific journals. Just about every one you open has a more dire prediction than the last.
In fact, all over the world Australia, India, South America there are battles going on, sometimes wars. In societies where indigenous populations have an influence, many are taking a strong stand. See: http://goo.gl/CShcP
The Most Dangerous Moment in History
The other issue is nuclear war. Its been known for a long time that if there were to be a first strike by a major power, even with no retaliation, it would probably destroy civilization just because of the nuclear-winter consequences that would follow. You can read about it in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. Its well understood. So the danger has always been a lot worse than we thought it was. Weve just passed the 50th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis, which was called the most dangerous moment in history by historian Arthur Schlesinger, President John F. Kennedys advisor. Which it was. It was a very close call, and not the only time either. In some ways, however, the worst aspect of these grim events is that the lessons havent been learned. What happened in the missile crisis in October 1962 has been prettified to make it look as if acts of courage and thoughtfulness abounded. The truth is that the whole episode was almost insane. There was a point, as the missile crisis was reaching its peak, when Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev wrote to Kennedy offering to settle it by a public announcement of a withdrawal of Russian missiles from Cuba and U.S. missiles from Turkey. Actually, Kennedy hadnt even known that the U.S. had missiles in Turkey at the time. They were being withdrawn anyway, because they were being replaced by more lethal Polaris nuclear submarines, which were invulnerable.
Lets turn to the present. Theres an interesting recent history. In 1993, Israel and North Korea were moving towards an agreement in which North Korea would stop sending any missiles or military technology to the Middle East and Israel would recognize that country. President Clinton intervened and blocked it. Shortly after that, in retaliation, North Korea carried out a minor missile test. The U.S. and North Korea did then reach a framework agreement in 1994 that halted its nuclear work and was more or less honored by both sides. When George W. Bush came into office, North Korea had maybe one nuclear weapon and verifiably wasnt producing any more. Lately, for instance, there have been South Korean-U.S. military exercises on the Korean peninsula which, from the Norths point of view, have got to look threatening. Wed think they were threatening if they were going on in Canada and aimed at us. In the course of these, the most advanced bombers in history, Stealth B-2s and B-52s, are carrying out simulated nuclear bombing attacks right on North Koreas borders. This surely sets off alarm bells from the past. They remember that past, so theyre reacting in a very aggressive, extreme way. Well, what comes to the West from all this is how crazy and how awful the North Korean leaders are. Yes, they are. But thats hardly the whole story, and this is the way the world is going. Its not that there are no alternatives. The alternatives just arent being taken. Thats dangerous. So if you ask what the world is going to look like, its not a pretty picture. Unless people do something about it. We always can.
