Introduction to HDM-4
Henry Kerali
Lead Transport Specialist The World Bank
Transport and Development
Transport sector is vital for economic & social development Roads constitute the largest component of transport Roads require a balance of:
Maintenance (or Preservation) Development (or Improvement)
Objective of Road Management
Consistent and Rational Policy Objectives Sufficient and Reliable Funding Effective Procedures & Management Tools
HDM-4 Objectives .
Economic basis for selecting investment alternatives
Road standards
Pavement standards Alignments
HDM-4 Objectives ..
Standard framework for investigating road investments Minimize Road Agency and Road User Costs
Non-motorized transport facilities Traffic congestion Vehicle emissions Travel times
Transport costs Road accidents
History of the HDM model
de Weille 1966 Highway Cost Model 1971 Kenya Study 1971-75
RTIM (TRRL)
Caribbean Study 1977-82 India Study 1976-82 Brazil Study 1975-84
HDM-II 1981
RTIM2 (TRL)
HDM-III 1987
HDM-4 HDM-VOC Model 4 2000 1994 ISOHDM
RTIM3 (TRL)
HDM-4 Concept
Predicts road network performance as a function of
Traffic volumes and loading Road pavement type and strength Maintenance standards Environment / Climate
Quantifies benefits to road users from:
Savings in vehicle operating costs (VOC) Reduced road user travel times Decrease in number of accidents Environmental effects
Optimum Transport Costs
Cost Total Optimum Road User
Road Works
Design Standards
Road Management
Purpose:
To optimise the overall performance of the network over time in accordance with POLICY OBJECTIVES and within budgetary constraints
Typical objectives:
Minimise transport costs Preserve asset value
Provide and maintain accessibility
Provide safe and environmentally friendly transport
Life Cycle Costs
Road Agency Costs
Management, Operations Labor, Equipment, Materials Land acquisition Maintenance and Rehabilitation
Road User Costs
Vehicle operation Travel time Road accidents
Comparison of Project Alternatives
Discounted RAC
(Road works + RUC) Without Overlay
NPV
With Overlay
Project Life (years)
End of Analysis
Comparison of Project Alternatives
Discounted RAC
Without Paving
NPV
RUC
Cost of Paving
Project Life (years)
End of Analysis
Life Cycle Analysis
Input Data
Predict Road Deterioration Predict Road Work Effects VOC, Accident & Time costs Discount Annual Costs & Compare
Output NPV, IRR,.. Repeat for all years
Road Deterioration
Predict long term pavement performance Predict effects of maintenance standards Calculate annual costs: Road Agency + Road User
Poor Road Condition
Maintenance Standard
Pavement Performance Curve Rehabilitation
Good
Time (years) or Traffic Loading
Pavement Performance
Pavement Types modelled:
Bituminous (AC, ST, etc.) Unsealed (Gravel, Earth, Sand, etc.) Concrete (JPCP, JRCP, CRCP, etc.) Block (Bricks, etc.)
Models from pavement performance experiments in:
Brazil, Kenya, India, South Africa France, USA, Sweden, Finland, Australia
Principles Of Deterioration Models
Models are structured empirical Individual distresses modelled separately Relationships are incremental and recursive dY = K a0 f(X1, X2, X3, etc) Modelled sequentially through to roughness Maintenance intervention at end of each year
Cracking Initiation Model
ICA=Kcia{CDS2*a0exp[a1SNP+a2(YE4/SN2)+CRT}
ICA time to cracking initiation, in years
CDS construction quality
SNP structural number of pavement YE4 traffic loading
Kcia
calibration factor
CRT effect of maintenance
All Cracking Progression
CRP dACA = Kcpa CDS zA [(zA*a0*a1*tA*YE4*SNPa2 + SCAa1 )1/a1 - SCA]
CRP = retardation of cracking progression due to preventive treatment Progression of All cracking commences when tA > 0 or ACAa > 0
Pavement Deterioration Concept
Area of Cracking Rut depth
t1 t1
Time Water ingress Uneven Surface Lower strength
Time
Faster deformation
Uneven surface
Spalling
Further cracking
ROUGHNESS
Potholes
Shear
Patches
Patches
Concrete Roads
Joint Spalling Punch outs Cracking Faulting Slab failures Riding Quality
Models From USA Chile
Bituminous Pavements
Predicted defects:
Cracking Ravelling Edge Break Potholes Riding Quality Skidding
Bituminous Road Deterioration .
Bituminous Road Deterioration ..
Unsealed Roads
Unsealed Road Deterioration ..
Unsealed Road Deterioration
Road Work Classification
Preservation
Routine
Patching, Edge repair Drainage, Crack sealing
Development
Improvements
Widening Realignment Off-carriageway works
Periodic
Preventive treatments
Construction
Upgrading New sections
Rehabilitation
Pavement reconstruction
Special
Emergencies Winter maintenance
Road Works
Road Work Effects
Condition
Reconstruct Overlay
Traffic / Time
Road User Effects
Road User Effects
Vehicle operating costs
fuel, oil, tyres, parts consumption vehicle utilisation & depreciation
Travel time
passengers cargo
Road accidents Non-Motorized Transport Energy consumption Vehicle emissions & noise
RUE Features in HDM-4
Effects of traffic congestion on speed, fuel, tyres and maintenance costs Non-motorised transport modelling Effects of road works on users Traffic safety impact Vehicle emissions impact Vehicle noise impact
Motorised Vehicles
Impact of Road Condition on VOC
Heavy Truck
Road User Costs ($/veh-km)
Bus
Pickup/utility
Car Rickshaw
Good
Road Condition (IRI)
Poor
Non-Motorised Transport
Role of HDM-4
Management Function Planning Programming Preparation HDM-4 Application Strategy Analysis Programme Analysis Project Analysis
Road Management Functions
Planning
Setting standards and policies Long term estimates of expenditure
Programming
Medium term work programmes
Preparation
Detailed project design and work packaging
Operations
Implementation of works in field
HDM-4 Applications
Road sector policy studies Strategic planning of road network development, improvement & maintenance Determination of funding requirements Preparation of multi-year road work programmes Economic appraisal of individual road projects Research studies
Road pricing Vehicle regulations Pavement design standards
Standards & Policies
Road pricing
road use costs (to define fuel levies) congestion charges weight-distance charges
Vehicle regulations
axle load limits energy consumption, vehicle emissions & noise
Engineering Standards
sustainable road network size pavement design and maintenance standards
Strategy Analysis
Analysis of entire road networks to determine funding needs and predict performance under budget constraints
Objectives:
Determine budget allocations for road maintenance and improvement Prepare work programs Determine long term network performance Assess impact on road users
Strategic Analysis Approach
Road Network
G F P
Matrix H
M L
Revenues, Sector budgets
Resource Constraints
Preservation Evaluation
Developmen t Candidates
Optimal Strategy under Budgetary Constraints
Optimization Module
Effect of budget levels
Primary Roads
6.0 5.0
$15m Annual Budget $10m
Average Roughness (IRI)
4.0 3.0 2.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Target = 3.5 IRI
$20m
2006
Road Network Performance
Budget Allocations
7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Secondary Roads $35m/yr Feeder Roads $30m/yr
Average Roughness (IRI)
Primary Roads $20m/yr
Programme Analysis
Preparation of single or multi-year expenditure programs under specified budget constraints.
Objective: prioritise candidate road projects in each year within annual budget constraint Annual budgets obtained from strategic maintenance plan
Procedure .
Use specified standards to screen network & identify candidate projects, e.g.
road sections which exceed specified condition roads with inadequate capacity pavements which need strengthening upgrade pavements with high traffic volumes
Procedure ..
Determine maintenance or improvement options Specify budget limits & periods Optimise using selected objective Produce optimal list of projects for budget period
Work Programme Output
Priority Rank 1 2 3 4 5 : 1 2 3 : 1 2 3 : Road Section N1-2 N4-7 N2-5 R312-1 R458-3 : N4-16 R13-23 N521-5 : N1-6 N7-9 F2140-8 : Length Province Type of (km) or District Road Work 20.5 2 Resealing 23.5 7 Overlay 40mm 12.5 5 Reconstruct 30 4 Widen 4 lane 36.2 3 Overlay 60mm : : : 32.1 6 Reconstruct 22.4 4 Overlay 40mm 45.2 2 Widen 4 lane : : : 30.2 4 Resealing 17.8 3 Overlay 60mm 56.1 1 Reconstruct : : : Scheduled Year 2000 2003 2000 2003 2000 2003 2000 2003 2000 2003 : 2001 2004 2001 2004 2001 2004 : 2002 2005 2002 2005 2002 2005 : : : : Cost Cumulative $m S$m 5.4 5.4 10.9 16.3 8.6 24.9 31.4 56.3 16.3 72.6 : 22.8 22.8 9.7 32.5 41.3 73.8 : 8.2 8.2 9.2 17.4 34.9 52.3 :
Project Appraisal
Project types
New construction, upgrading Reconstruction, resealing Widening, lane addition Non-Motorised Transport lanes
Economic indicators
Net Present Value (NPV) Economic Rate of Return (ERR)
Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR), NPV/C
First Year Rate of Return (FYRR)
Project Level Outputs
Sensitivity analysis results
Scenario analysis Road condition indicators Road user cost details Energy & emissions
HDM Technology Set
Knowledge Base Software
Models
RDWE
RUE SEE
HDM Series
Conclusions Why HDM-4?
Transparency of analysis Life cycle analysis capable of:
Short, Medium & Long term analyses What-if analysis
Internationally accepted analysis framework
Availability of technical expertise Local calibration
Web sites:
http://hdm4.piarc.org http://www.bham.ac.uk
