Climate change

Fisika lingkungan
2007
Pfis-fkip untan
ls
 1. Has the climate changed during the
20th century?
• Yes, many observations indicate that the world's climate has
changed during the 20th century:

1.1. The average surface temperature has increased by about

0.6°C (1°F).
Snow cover and ice extent have decreased.
The sea level has risen by 10 to 20 cm (4 to 8").
1.2. Some other important changes include precipitation, cloud
cover and extreme temperatures.

1.3. Some important aspects appear NOT to have changed, like

Antarctic sea-ice extent or extreme events such as storms,
tornadoes, thunder days, or hail events.
 2. What causes this climate change?

• 2.1. Climate has and will always vary for natural reasons.
However, human activities are increasing significantly
the concentrations of some gases in the atmosphere,
such as greenhouse gases (mainly CO2), which tend to
warm the earth surface, and anthropogenic aerosol,
which mostly tend to cool it.
• 2.2. Although more research is needed, understanding of
climate processes and computer models have improved
leading the IPCC to draw the following conclusion: Most
of the warming over the last 50 years is likely to have
been due to man-made activities.
3. What climate changes are expected for
the future?
3.1. To predict the future climate, several greenhouse gas emission
scenarios were developed and fed into computer models

3.2. They project for the next century that, without specific policy
changes :
– global mean temperature should increase by between 1.4 and 5.8°C (2.5 to
10°F).
– the Northern Hemisphere cover should decrease further, but the Antarctic
ice sheet should increase.
– the sea level should rise by between 9 and 88 cm (3.5" to 35").
– other changes should occur, including an increase in some extreme
weather events.
3.3. After 2100, human induced climate change is projected to persist for
many centuries.
The sea level should continue rising for thousands of years after the
climate has been stabilized.
 4. What are the likely consequences of
climate change?
4.1. Regional changes in climate, particularly increases in temperature,
have already affected some physical and biological systems.
4.2. Both natural and human systems are vulnerable to climate change
because of their limited adaptive capacity. This vulnerability varies
with geographic location, time, and social, economic and
environmental conditions.
4.3. Some extreme weather events and the damage, hardship, and death
they cause are projected to increase with global warming. There is
also a potential for large-scale and possibly irreversible impacts which
pose risks that have yet to be reliably quantified; their likelihood is
probably very low but is expected to increase with the rate, magnitude,
and duration of climate change
4.4. Man will have to adapt to and cope with the climate change
consequences that are not prevented by mitigation. Economic losses
can be expected, especially in poorest regions; the higher the
warming, the greater the losses. Promoting adaptation, sustainable
development and equity can be mutually reinforcing.
5. How could Climate Change affect us in
the future?
5.1. Projected changes in climate are expected to have both
beneficial and adverse effects on water resources, agriculture,
natural ecosystems and human health. But the larger the
changes in climate the more the adverse effects should
dominate. For instance, some crop and forest productivities
could benefit from a small climate change. But for many other
natural systems, the adverse effects should be dominant,
especially if warming exceeds a few degrees.
5.2. Human populations are expected to face increasing flooding
and heat waves but reduced cold spells. The geographic range
for infectious diseases should increase.
5.3. The vulnerability of human populations and natural systems
to climate change differs substantially across regions and
across populations within regions.
6. How could greenhouse gas emissions
be reduced?
6.1.climate change is a unique, global, long-term problem, involving
complex interactions.
6.2. There are many technological options for reducing greenhouse
emissions, some at low or negative cost. Forests and agricultural
lands provide significant but not necessarily permanent carbon sinks,
which may allow time for other options.
6.3. There will be both costs and benefits to reducing greenhouse gases.
Most studies project that in 2010, the Kyoto Protocol should cost
developed countries a reduction in projected GDP of about 0.2% to 2%
without emission trading and about half of that with emission trading.
6.4. Greenhouse gas reduction programs need to overcome many
barriers. Governments have a wide array of instruments at their
disposal. With coordinated actions and international regimes,
efficiency and equity should improve.
6.5. Further research is required to strengthen future assessments and to
reduce uncertainties.
7. Are recent extreme weather events due
to global warming?

• It is not possible to link any particular

event definitively to global warming. But as
the world warms, more of some types of
extreme events are expected, such as
heat waves, heavy precipitation, blizzards
and droughts. For some other events such
as extra-tropical storms, there is little
agreement between current predictive
models.
 8. Do man-made greenhouse gases
matter compared to water vapor?

• Water vapor is by far the most important

greenhouse gas Nevertheless, the man-
made increase in other greenhouse gases
such as CO2 is expected to induce some
additional warming in the coming decades.
Warmer air contains more water vapor;
this in turn amplifies the man-made
warming. Other reactive mechanisms
(feedback) could both amplify or reduce
this warming.
 9. Can ecosystems adapt to Climate
Change?
• Ecosystems have a limited capacity to adapt to
climate change; some might not be able to cope
as they had done in earlier periods and are
expected to suffer damages because:
• The rate and extent of climate change is
expected to be faster and greater than in the past
and could exceed nature's maximum adaptation
speed;
• Human activities and pollution have increased the
vulnerability of ecosystems
 10. What is and is not known with
certainty about climate change?

10.1. The earth's average surface temperature has

increased by about 0.6 °C (1°F) during last century, and
human activities are increasing the levels of greenhouse
gases which tends to warm the planet.
10.2. How much and how fast temperatures will continue to
rise remains uncertain, and the exact impacts of climate
change over the 21st century, especially for local
regions, remain largely unknown.
10.4. However, global warming poses real risks. Because
the exact nature and amplitude of these risks remains
uncertain, we have to use our best judgment – guided by
the current state of science – to determine what the most
appropriate response should be.
 11. Conclusion
The earth's climate has changed over the last century (see 1). There is
new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed the last
50 years is attributable to human activities (see 2.3). Evolving
computer models (see 2.2) are predicting that, because of greenhouse
emissions, temperatures should continue to rise over the 21st century
(see 3), impacting nature and mankind both positively and negatively
(see 4 dan 5).
The impacts should vary among regions (see 5.3), but they can not yet be
predicted accurately, especially for small-scale areas (see 10.3).
However, it is expected that:
the more the greenhouse gases are emitted, the higher the tendency
for the earth to warm (see 3.2),
the greater and faster the warming, the more the adverse effects will
dominate (see 5),
and the higher the possibility, although probably remote, of large-
scale and possibly irreversible impacts (see 4.3).
Therefore, although an acceptable level for greenhouse gases has not yet
been determined, reducing emissions should reduce the risk of
adverse effects. Many options for emission reductions are available
(see 6.2); their costs need to be balanced with the risks left for future
generations.
Climate change
2007
Fisika lingkungan
2007
Pfis-fkip untan
ls
 1. What makes the climate change?
• The Earth’s climate is influenced by many factors, mainly
by the amount of energy coming from the sun, but also by
factors such as the amount of greenhouse gases and
aerosols in the atmosphere, and the properties of the
Earth’s surface, which determine how much of this solar
energy is retained or reflected back to space.
• The atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases
such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and
nitrous oxide (N2O) have significantly increased since the
beginning of the industrial revolution. This is mainly due to
human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels,
land use change, and agriculture. For instance, the
atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is now far
higher than in the last 650 000 years and has been
growing faster in the last ten years than it has been since
the beginning of continuous measurements around 1960.
 2. How is climate changing and how has it
changed in the past?
• changes in temperature, sea level and snow cover since 1850
2.1 The warming of global climate is now unequivocal. There are many
observations of increasing air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting
of snow and ice, and rising sea levels. More specifically, eleven of the last
twelve years (1995-2006) rank among the 12 warmest years ever recorded
since global surface temperatures are measured (1850). Over the last 100
years (1906–2005), global temperature has increased by 0.74°C. Global
sea level has risen by 17 cm during the 20th century, in part because of the
melting of snow and ice from many mountains and in the polar regions.
More regional changes have also been observed, including changes in
Arctic temperatures and ice, ocean salinity, wind patterns, droughts,
precipitations, frequency of heat waves and intensity of tropical cyclones.
2.2 The temperatures of the last half century are unusual in comparison with
those of at least the previous 1300 years. The last time that the polar
regions remained significantly warmer than now for a very extended period
(125 000 years ago), the sea level rose by 4 to 6 meters.
2.3 Most of the increase in global temperature observed over the past fifty
years is very likely due to human emissions of greenhouse gases.
 3. How is the climate going to change in
the future?
From 1980 to the end of the 21st century, temperatures are projected to increase by
1.8°C to 4.0°C.
3.1 The global average temperature is expected to increase by about 0.2°C per decade
over the next two decades. Continuing greenhouse gas emissions at or above current
rates would cause a further increase in global temperatures and many other climatic
changes during the 21st century.The best estimates for projected global temperature
increases from the 1980s to the end of the 21st century range from 1.8°C (1.1 -
2.9°C) to 4°C (2.4 - 6.4°C) for the IPCC scenarios that do not consider additional
mitigation measures apart from those already in place in 2000.
3.2 Global average sea level is expected to rise by 18 to 59 cm by the end of the 21st
century. Warming is expected to be greatest over land and at high northern latitudes
and smallest over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean. Other
projected changes include acidification of the oceans, reduced snow cover and
sea ice, more frequent heat waves and heavy precipitation, more intense tropical
cyclones, and slower oceanic currents.

3.3 Warming and sea level rise caused by human activities will continue for centuries,
even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized. If warming persists over
many centuries, it could lead to a complete melting of the Greenland Ice sheet,
increasing global sea levels by about 7m
 What impacts of climate change have
already been observed?
Glaciers are melting in many places across the world.
• Regional climate change is already affecting many natural systems.
For instance, it is increasingly being observed that snow and ice are
melting and frozen ground is thawing, hydrological and biological
systems are changing and in some cases being disrupted,
migrations are starting earlier, and species' geographic ranges are
shifting towards the poles.
• Despite remaining gaps in knowledge, it is likely that these effects
are linked to human influence on climate. At the regional level,
however, responses to natural variability are difficult to separate
from the effects of climate change.
• Some previously unanticipated impacts of regional climate change
are just starting to become apparent. For instance, melting glaciers
can threaten mountain settlements and water resources, and
damage associated with coastal flooding are increasing.
 5. What impacts are expected in the future?
5.1 Over the course of the 21st century, many impacts are expected to occur in natural
systems. For instance, changes in precipitation and the melting of ice and snow are
expected to increase flood risks in some areas while causing droughts in others. If
there is significant warming the capacity of ecosystems to adapt will be exceeded,
with negative consequences such as an increased risk of extinction of species.
5.2 The most vulnerable people are in general the poor, since they have less capacity to
adapt, and their livelihoods are often dependent on resources that are linked to
climate.
5.3 Africa is found to be particularly vulnerable to climate change, because of existing
pressures on its ecosystems and its low capacity to adapt. On all continents, water
supply and the threat to coastal areas will be an issue. Overall future impacts are
expected to be negative, although some positive effects are also expected initially,
such as an increase in agricultural productivity at high latitudes accompanying a
moderate warming, or decreased heating needs in cold regions.
5.4 Impacts will depend on the magnitude of the temperature increase. For instance,
some crops at mid- to high latitudes will have higher productivity if local temperature
increases by 1-3 °C, but will be negatively affected beyond that (see Table ). If higher
temperatures persist after the 21st century it could result in very large impacts. For
instance, the large sea-level rise that would result from the melting of the Greenland
and Antarctic ice sheets would have major repercussions on coastal areas. The cost
associated with the effects of climate change is projected to increase over time with
rising temperatures.
5.5 A projected increase in the severity and frequency of droughts, heat waves, and other
extreme weather events is expected to cause major impacts over the course of this
century
 6. How do people adapt to climate change?
• Changes in consumption habits can help address climate change.
6.1 Humans need to adapt to the impacts of climate change, for
instance through technological solutions such as coastal defences
and changes in consumption habits. Humans are already adapting
to climate change, and further adaptation efforts will be necessary
during coming decades. However, adaptation alone is not expected
to be able to cope will all projected effects since the options diminish
and the costs increase with rising temperatures.
6.2 Vulnerability of human populations to climate change and its
consequences can be affected by other factors, such as pollution,
conflicts, or epidemics such as AIDS. An emphasis on
sustainable development can help human societies reduce their
vulnerability to climate change. However, climate change itself can
become an impediment to their development.
6.3 Mitigation measures that aim to reduce greenhouse gases
emissions can help avoid, reduce or delay impacts, and should be
implemented in order to ensure that adaptation capacity is not
exceeded
 7. What are the current trends in
greenhouse gas emissions?
• Global greenhouse gas emissions have grown markedly
since pre-industrial times, with a 70% increase from
1970 to 2004 alone . Over this period, emissions from
the transport and energy sectors have more than
doubled. Policies put in place in some countries have
been effective in reducing emissions in those countries
to a certain degree, but not sufficiently to counteract the
global growth in emissions.
• Without additional measures to mitigate climate change,
global green house gas emissions will continue to grow
over the coming decades and beyond. Most of this
increase would come from developing countries, where
per capita emissions are still considerably lower than
those in developed countries.
 8. What actions can be taken to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions?
8.1 Mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have a certain cost. However,
they also constitute an economic benefit by reducing the impacts of climate change, and
the costs associated with them. In addition, they can bring economic benefits by reducing
local air pollution and energy resource depletion. If the benefits of avoided climate change
are taken into account and a “carbon price” is established for each unit of greenhouse gas
emissions, this could create incentives for producers and consumers to significantly invest
in products, technologies and processes which emit less greenhouse gases. 8.2 Changes
in lifestyle and behaviours that favor resource conservation can contribute to
climate change mitigation.
8.3 Mitigation measures can also have other benefits for society, such as health cost savings
resulting from reduced air pollution. However, mitigation in one country or group of
countries could lead to higher emissions elsewhere or effects on the global economy.
8.4 No one sector or technology can address the entire mitigation challenge. All sectors
including buildings, industry, energy production, agriculture, transport, forestry, and waste
management could contribute to the overall mitigation efforts, for instance through greater
energy efficiency. Many technologies and processes which emit less greenhouse gases
are already commercially available or will be in the coming decades
8.5 In order to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, emissions
would have to stop increasing and then decline. The lower the stabilization level aimed for,
the more quickly this decline would need to occur. World-wide investments in mitigation
technologies, as well as research into new energy sources, will be necessary to achieve
stabilization. Delaying emission reduction measures limits the opportunities to achieve low
stabilization levels and increases the risk of severe climate change impacts
 9. How can governments create incentives for
mitigation?
9.1 A wide variety of policy tools can be applied by governments to create
incentives for mitigation action, such as regulation, taxation, tradable
permit schemes, subsidies, and voluntary agreements. Past experience
shows that there are advantages and drawbacks for any given policy
instrument. For instance, while regulations and standards can provide
some certainty about emission levels, they may not encourage
innovations and more advanced technologies.
Although the impact of the Kyoto protocol’s first commitment period 2008-
2012 on global carbon emissions is expected to be limited, it has allowed
the establishment of a global response to the climate problem as well as
the creation of an international carbon market and other mechanisms that
may provide the foundation for future mitigation efforts.
9.2 Switching to more sustainable development paths can make a major
contribution to climate change mitigation. Policies that contribute to both
climate change mitigation and sustainable development include those
related to energy efficiency, renewable energies, and conservation of
natural habitats. In general, sustainable development can increase the
capacity for adaptation and mitigation, and reduce vulnerability to the
impacts of climate change.
 10. Conclusion
• Current warming trends are unequivocal. It is very likely that
greenhouse gases released by human activities are responsible for most of
the warming observed in the past fifty years. The warming is projected to
continue and to increase over the course of the 21st century and beyond.
• Climate change already has a measurable impact on many natural and
human systems. Effects are projected to increase in the future and to be
more severe with greater increases in temperature. Adaptation measures
are already being implemented, and will be essential in order to address the
projected consequences. There is, however, a limit to adaptation; mitigation
measures will also be needed in order to reduce the severity of impacts.
• Mitigation measures that aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can help
avoid, reduce or delay many impacts of climate change. Policy instruments
could create incentives for producers and consumers to significantly invest
in products, technologies and processes which emit less greenhouse gases.
Without new mitigation policies, global greenhouse gas emissions will
continue to grow over the coming decades and beyond. Rapid world-wide
investments and deployment of mitigation technologies, as well as research
into new energy sources will be necessary to achieve a stabilization of the
concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
• Additional research addressing gaps in knowledge would further reduce
uncertainties and thus facilitate decision-making related to climate change.
 12. Other views

This summary is based on the latest

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPPC) review, the Third Assessment Report
(TAR)
It is considered by most scientists as a consensus
document and other recent scientific
assessments reach similar conclusions.
However, some people and organizations
disagree with certain IPCC conclusions