Lecture 14:
Stock market basics
and stock pricing
Mishkin Ch 7 part A
page 151-159
Plus supplementary lecture notes
1
Review
Term structure of interest rate
Yield curve
Expectations theory
long-term interest rate = average of short-term
interest rates.
Segmented markets theory
Liquidity premium theory
long-term
interest rate = average + liquidity premium
liquidity premium > 0 and increase with maturity
2
Interpret the yield curve using
liquidity premium theory
yield curve
expected future short-term i would?
steeply upward sloping
rise
slightly upward sloping
unchanged
flat
decline moderately
downward sloping
decline sharply
You can figure out what the market is predicting about
future short-term interest rates by looking at the slope
of the yield curve.
3
Stocks
A share of stock is a claim on the
net income and assets of the
corporation.
Rights of shareholders
Shareholders (stockholders) have
ownership interest in the company
proportional to shares owned.
Large shareholder vs. small
shareholders
Rights include:
rights to be residual claimants
2. voting rights influence management
1.
Shareholders payof
possible income:
dividends: payments made periodically,
usually every quarter, to stockholders.
Shareholders are eligible for dividends,
but no guarantee.
capital gain: can sell stocks to earn
price appreciation but may also incur
loss from price decline.
limited liability
6
Stock exchanges
New York Stock Exchange
(NYSE, "Big Board" )
NASDAQ
(National Association of Securities
Dealers Automated Quotation System)
electronic trading system
Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes
listed companies
When a firm go public, it does not add to its
debt. Instead, it brings in additional
owners who supply it with funds.
7
Read stock quotes
Microsoft Corporation
(MSFT) NASDAQ
$26.03 $+0.05+0.19%
Open
$26.11
High:
$26.39
Low:
$25.45
52-Wk
Rng
$ 25.60 - $ 37.50
P/E Ratio
15.13
Volume
71,527,599
52-Wk Rng
Highest and lowest share
price achieved by the
stock over the past 52
weeks.
P/E Ratio
Price-Earnings Ratio =
(Current stock price)/
(Current annual earnings
per share)
Volume
Volume of shares traded
yesterday (in 100s)
8
Major events
1987 crash:
1990s boom:
total value of stocks fell by about a trillion dollars
between August 1987 and the end of October
1987.
a major boom in last half of the 1990s, the value
of stocks increased by about $2.5 trillion per year
during the boom.
bubble burst in 2000:
Starting in early 2000, the stock market began to
decline, the NASDAQ fell by over 50%, while the
Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes fell by 30%
through January 2003.
9
If I could forecast stock
price
Fundamental analysis
Technical analysis
macro-econ and firm performance dividend
stocks intrinsic value
P/E ratio, debt-to-equity ratio, return-on-assets
ratio, price/earnings to growth ratio ...
volume of trade and price trend
moving averages, regressions, price
correlations, cycles, chart.
Behavioral finance perspective
sunspot and consumer confidence
10
Technical analysis
cycles and waves
chart
candle stick
11
Alternative views of stock pricing
1.
2.
Fundamental Finance View:
Stock prices are largely determined by the true
financial conditions of firms, as reflected in their
profits, market power, R&D prospects, etc.
Behavioral Finance View:
Stock prices are strongly affected by market
psychology:
irrational exuberance or pessimism;
beauty contest guesses about the most attractive
stocks to buy based on what other people are buying or
selling (fads, herd following, ).
12
Pricing principle of fundamental view
Basic principle of finance:
value
today = present value of future cash flows
e.g. for coupon bonds, bond price today = PV of
all future cash flows:
C
C
C
F
P
...
2
n
1 i (1 i )
(1 i ) (1 i ) n
Then, value of stock today (current price) = ?
13
One-period valuation model
current stock price = PV of all future cash flows
for a one-period stock, current price should be:
Div1
P1
P0
(1 ke ) (1 ke )
(1)
P0 = the current price of the stock
Div1 = the dividend paid at the end of year 1
ke = the required return on investment in equity
P1 = the sale price of the stock at the end of the first period
Expected end of period price, and Expected dividend
14
Generalized dividend valuation model
for a n-period stock, current price should be:
Dn
Pn
D1
D2
P0
1
2
n
(1 ke ) (1 ke )
(1 ke )
(1 ke ) n
If n is large, Pn happens far in the future, then the last
term of the equation is small. (no price bubble)
Dt
P0
t
(1
k
)
t 1
e
(2)
(3)
Price of stock is determined only by present value
of future dividends: dividend valuation15model.
Gordon growth model
Assume dividend growth is a constant,
denote as g
D0 (1 g )1 D0 (1 g ) 2
D0 (1 g )
P0
K
1
2
(1 ke )
(1 ke )
(1 ke )
(4)
Assume the growth rate g is less than the
required return on equity Ke
D0 (1 g )
D1
P0
( ke g )
( ke g )
(5)
16
Apply Gordon growth model
Gordon growth model predicts that
current stock price P0 will be lower if:
1.
Current dividend D0 is lower;
2.
Or the expected dividend growth rate g is
lower;
Or the required return on equity ke is
larger.
3.
17
Example - 9/11 attacks
Fears led to downward revision of the growth
prospects for U.S. companies and hence a
lower expected dividend growth rate g.
Increased uncertainty led to a larger required
return on investment ke.
As predicted by the Gordon Growth Model,
these two effects of the 9/11 attacks were
followed by a drop in stock market prices.
How would you predict the effects of oil price
spikes on stock market prices?
18
More about pricing formulas
The current market price P0 is an equilibrium
market price:
Right side is what investors are willing to pay for
the stock, given their current desires and
beliefs.
If right side were greater than the current market
price, investors would increase their demand for
the stock and thus bid up this market price.
If right side were less than current market price,
investors would reduce their demand for the
stock, thus causing this market price to fall.
19
How the market sets prices
The price is set by the buyer willing to pay
the highest price
The market price will be set by the
buyer who can take best advantage of the
asset
Superior information about an asset can
increase its value by reducing its risk
20
