Afghan Quagmire and Regional Actors

Brief Introduction

 Afghanistan: The School of militancy & Jihad.

 Afghanistan: Poppy Capital of the World.

 Afghanistan: The most bombed, crushed, corrupted,

and mined nation of the globe.

 Afghanistan: The most isolated & barren landscape

on earth.
 Brief Introduction…

An unlikely target of some of empires and

superpowers.

Has the history of resistance to foreign occupation

and continue to enjoy the status of “Graveyard of
Empires.”

Has always been the part of all ‘great games’.

 Afghanistan: From modernity to orthodoxy
 Domestically, it has passed through the contests
between the forces of modernity and orthodoxy,

 From King Amanullah’s attempts to modernize Afghan

society in 1920s,

 To Republic of Dawood in 1973,

 To Communism of Tarakai and Hafiz Amin,

 To theocracy under Taliban rule in 1990s.

 Historical Background of Afghan conflict
No other country has ever faced more blows than
that of Afghanistan.

Faced wrath of Alexander, and Babur in 1504, who

took the control of Kabul - entered into subcontinent
and established Mughal Dynasty.

Modern Afghanistan won its independence on

August 19, 1919 under King Amanullah Khan.
 Historical Background of Afghan conflict
Under King Zahir Shah (1933-1973), Afghanistan was
politically stable and prosperous.
1973 coup of Sardar Dawood.
April 27, 1978 Communist coup, known Saur
Revolution against Dawood, by Tarakai.
Tarakai was ousted by Hafiz-ul-Amin in Sep, 14, 1979.
Amin was ousted by Soviets in Dec 27, 1979.
Communists introduced failed land reforms.
 Historical Background of Afghan conflict
Soviet invasion December, 1979 – Brzezinski – stinger.

Geneva accords April 1988 – USSR troops’

withdrawal – Najeeb govt.
Najeeb stepped down - March 17, 1992 and
handed Kabul over to Mujahedeen under Ahmed
Shah Masood.

Infighting among Mujahedeen led to the

emergence of Taliban 1994 – who regarded
Rabbani govt. as anti Pashtoon and corrupt.
 Rise of Taliban
Therefore, during Civil War (1994-1996) they earned
popular support from the Pashtun masses.

In Nov. 1994 Taliban took over Qandahar, and in Sep

1995 captured Herat.

Eventually, Taliban seized the control of Kabul in

September 1996 and ousted the Rabbani
Government.
 9/11 and Bonn Process
After 9/11 and subsequent US invasion ousted
Taliban within one month.
UN invited all major Afghan parties other than
Taliban, esp. Northern Alliance to Bonn, Germany.

On December 5, 2001, the Afghan participants

signed the “Bonn Agreement”.

UNSC under 1386 resolution, established ISAF to

administer security in Afghanistan.
 9/11 and Bonn Process
Interim Government was formed under Hamid Karzai
on December 22, 2001.

After six months, Loya Jirga comprising 1650 elders

endorsed Hamid Karzai as the head of the
Transitional Authority.
In January 2004 Afghan constitution was enacted.

Hamid Karzai became president after securing 55%

votes in 2004 election.
 Regional Dimension from Comp. to Coop.
Afghan neighbours have traditionally competed and
intervened into Afghanistan to promote their national
interests.

No regional country can impose its will in Afghanistan.

But, they all surely have capacity to spoil anything

they perceive against their interests.
 Pak. and Afghan.: troublesome relationship
There are no two states shares as much common
fate, culture, history and geo-political dilemmas as
Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Historically, relations between two sides have been
combination of optimism and gloom, collaboration
to antagonism since the creation of Pakistan in 1947.
Afghanistan opposed Pakistan’s entry into UNO.
Its irredentist claims – Pashtoonistan stunt.
In 1950s – tumultuous relations – diplomatic relations
were severed.
 Afghanistan descends into chaos.
In 1960s relations were at ease relatively.

1970s premier ZA Bhutto visited Afghanistan that was

reciprocated by Sardar Daoud.

Afghanistan – in late 1978 descended into chaos –

USSR invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.

Mujahedeen resistance – CIA + ISI (Operation

Cyclone).
 After 9/11: Taliban ousted.
After 9/11, Pakistan Joined WoT, and Taliban were
ousted within one month.

Now, emergence of TTP, stability in Afghanistan has

become more crucial for Pakistan.

Pakistan Supports Afghan-led Afghan-owned solution

of Afghanistan issue.
 After 9/11 Pakistan and Afghanistan
Afghan leadership always accuse Pakistan for
playing Taliban card in the guise of (Afghan-lead-
Afghan-owned).
Corrupt and incompetent Afghan govt. keeps on
charging Pakistan.
Sympathetic policy of Pakistan has been very
antagonistically responded by Afghanistan.
It has done nothing to address Pakistani grievances
about hunting down TTP leadership in Afghaistan.
 After 9/11 Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Pakistan gave 500 US$ Mn in aid 3,000 scholarships
to Afghanistan.

Pakistan doesn’t want Taliban’s take over of

Afghanistan - will support TTP and strive for the
Pashtoonistan, now under the banner of jihad.

Pakistan has never claimed to have ‘strategic

depth’ in Afghanistan nor does it intend to.
 After 9/11 Pakistan and Afghanistan

“We want to have strategic depth in

Afghanistan, but that does not imply controlling
it. If we have a peaceful, stable and friendly
Afghanistan, automatically we will have our
strategic depth because our western border will
be secure, and we will not be looking at two
fronts”.
Gen. Kayani, 2010
 Pakistan fears;

Today, Pakistan is concerned about the two

developments;

First, manoeuvring of the TTP by Afghan intelligentsia;

Second, collaboration between TTP and Afghan

Taliban.
 Pakistan fears;
Both outcomes will be devastative for internal
security of Pakistan;

Therefore, Pakistan is in favour of a stable

Afghanistan with Taliban mainstreamed as political
force.

This is how TTP can be deprived from Afghan Taliban

support.
 After 9/11: old conflict new bitterness
After Karzai
Ashraf Ghani approached Pakistan and Murree
Process started in July, 2015.

But, the breaking of news in Aug 2015 about the

death of Mullah Omer sabotaged the Murree
process.

In fact, Karzai, NDS, and India were not happy with
growing Pakistani influence.
 After 9/11: Old conflict new bitterness

Ghani, was accused for having an appeasement

policy towards Pakistan.

Pakistan believes – Ghani proved weak man to deal

with.

On June 6, 2017, “Kabul Peace Process meeting”,

Ghani accused Pakistan for continuing “undeclared
war against Afghanistan”.
After 9/11: Old conflict new bitterness
Ironically, Pakistan is viewed as part of the problem
not part of solution in foreign capitals.

World views Pakistan through the lens of

Afghanistan, militancy, and Its Nuclear weapons.

Pakistan trying hard for border management but

Afghanistan – not cooperating.
 Pakistan/USA and Haqqanis
Old Jihadi veterans – previously supported by
Pak/US.

US and Afghanistan use to accuse Pakistan for their

own failures.

US did not press Pakistan for disassociation because;

1. Taliban are not a direct threat to US security.

Pakistan/USA and Haqqanis
2. USA always thrives on crisis.

3. Pakistan is more important to US than Taliban issue

in Afghanistan.

4. US pressure did not work in the past as well.

5. States never compromise on national security.

 India: aspires for CA
India views Afghanistan through; Pakistan and CA.
India does not want Afghanistan be ruled by
conservative regime – to avoid violence spill over
into India & Kashmir.

A stable and democratic Afghanistan will not allow

such takeover.

Wishes to use Afghanistan as “land bridge”, for

access to energy rich CA.
 India: Aspires for CA

Gave around US$2 billion of aid to Afghanistan.

Projecting soft power to the detriment of Pakistan by
building, universities, hospitals, dams and building of
the parliament.
An Indian steel consortium invested US$ 11 Bn in
mining.
It would have not been possible without NATO’s
security cover.
 India: Aspires for CA

In 2011, signed strategic agreement with

Afghanistan for capacity building of ANSF.

India is arming ANA and using Afghan soil against

Pakistan.
 Iran: A Concerned Neighbour
In 1990s, Iran backed Northern Alliance.

Therefore, supported US-led invasion of

Afghanistan to over throw Deobandi Taliban.

Iran was with US against Taliban, but after ISIS in

Afghanistan – Iran now supports Taliban as lesser
evil.
 Iran: A Concerned Neighbour
 On strategic fronts, Iran has three strategic objectives;

 First, Tehran neither wants a regime closer to U.S. nor

anti Shia conservative like Taliban/ISIS.

 Second; Iran supports an Afghan govt. with

representation of Shi’ite Hazaras and Tajiks.

 Third; protection of investments and personnel in

Western Afghanistan.
 China: Ambitious Power – new in Afghanistan.
China’s policies have been very careful – and
Muslim Xinjiang centric.

China is also committed to stabilize Afghanistan.

After US withdrawal instable Afghanistan will be a

threat to Chinese Belt Road Initiative (OBOR).

Supports Afghan-led Afghan-owned peace process

to keep India out of Afghanistan.
 China: Ambitious Power – new in Afghanistan.
China is part of Quadrilateral Coordination Group.

China-Afghanistan-Pakistan — foreign minister-level

dialogue forum.

In 2008, a Chinese group acquired Aynak copper

deposit worth of US$ 3.5 bn/30 years That has
potential of $ 100 bn.
“Without Afghan connectivity, there is no way to
connect China with the rest of the world”, Yao Jing.
 Russia: An Afghan Victim

Afghanistan is observed by Russia through the

lenses of security threats to Russia and CARs.

First, Russia worries - Islamic extremism will energize

militant movements in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.

Secondly, drug & human trafficking from

Afghanistan to CA and Russia.
 ISIS in Afghanistan.
Afghan government was least concerned about
ISIS in Afghanistan…why?

ISIS in Afghanistan has proved to be blessing in

disguise for Taliban.

China, Pakistan, Iran, and Russia are getting closer

and arming Taliban against ISKP.
 USA/NATO Allies: Tired and Fatigued
USA invaded Afghanistan after 9/11 – in pursuit of
Al-Qaeda and their Taliban affiliates.

USA toppled Taliban – established Bone Process

and resultant Karzai government.

They failed in democratization of Afghanistan – they

now have assumed the role ‘train’, ‘advice’, and
‘assist’.
 USA/NATO Allies: Tired and Fatigued
 Intra-Afghan Dialogue, “Help Afghan Talk to Afghans”.

 US/NATO now insist to stay in Afghanistan by keeping

12,000 (9800 US) troops for coming years.

 Trump has announced another 8,000 US/Nato troops

surge.

 USA by living in Afghanistan intends to keep an eye on

nuclear ambitious Iran, put pressure on China and
resurgent Russia, Nuclear Pakistan, and ensure smooth
energy flow through Persian Gulf.
 USA/NATO Allies: Tired and Fatigued

US is losing the war in Afghanistan.

But, many views resurgence of Taliban and the

advent of ISIS is “Constructed Chaos” to justify
American presence in Afghanistan.

Emerging Equation
US, India and Afghan govt
= Iran, Pakistan, China, and Russia views ISIS.
Towards a sustainable political settlement
Opening up the political Space.
Talks with the Taliban.
Agenda for Talks.
Capacity to negotiate.
Regional Talks.
International Role in Talks.
 Afghan Conflict and Stakeholders
International Players

Regional Players

Afghan Government

Opposition Parties/Groups
Negotiation Framework

1- Internally Generated Incentives;

When stakeholders themselves develop mechanisms
– they are more peaceful – DDR (Disarmament,
Demobilization, Reintegration)

2 - Security Incentives;
Will not be targeted by others
Negotiating Framework

3- Amnesty Incentives;

4- Political Incentives (Power Sharing)

5- Identity Incentives;
Dignity, Autonomy
 Conclusion:

Afghanistan is still far from a functioning state

despite 15 years long expensive campaign by
international coalition.

Afghanistan has regional solution – with a power

sharing mechanism.

Any solution imposed by others will be short-lived.

 Conclusion

Taliban must be mainstreamed as political entity.

Pakistan sensitivities must be dealt in relation to

Indian footprints on Afghan soil.

China should play a larger role for cherished peace

and security.