DW200705 Probability 1
PROBABILITY
Pengalaman yang diperoleh dari
Experience resulting from repeated percobaan berulang atau
experiments or from recurrent observasi terus menerus acapkali
dipakai untuk memprediksi hasil
observations is frequently used to dari kejadian masa depan. Jika
predict the outcome of future events. kita melempar koin yang ideal kita
If we toss a properly balanced coin dapat memprediksi dengan yakin
we can predict with certainty that it bahwa koin akan jatuh di posisi
with fall either a head or a tail. We muka atau belakang. Kita katakan
say that the chance of its showing bahwa kesempatan untuk jatuh
heads for a single toss is 50: 50 menunjukan sisi depan untuk
sekali lempar adalah 50:50
Dalam pemakaian matematika arti
In mathematical usage the meaning dari kata probability ditentukan
of the word probability is established dengan definisi dan tak ada
hubungannya dengan
by definition and is not connected kepercayaan atau bentuk-bentuk
with beliefs or any forms of wishful pemikiran kebijakan dan ramalan
thinking.
DW200705 Probability 2
If an event can happen in s ways (success) and fail to happen
in f ways (fail), and if each of these s+f ways is EQUALLY
LIKELY TO OCCUR, (mempunyai kesempatan muncul / terjadi
yang sama) the probability of success (the event happening,
peristiwa yang diharapkan, terjadi) in a single trial is
s
p
s f
And the probability of failure (probabilitas gagal) is
f
q
s f
DW200705 Probability 3
In a toss of a coin, a head can occur only in s=1 way
and a tail in f= 1 way, and both way are equally likely to
occur; thus
1 1
p
11 2
By definition we see that:
s f s f
pq 1 ( 100%)
s f s f s f
DW200705 Probability 4
EXAMPLE
From a bag containing 7 black balls and 4 white balls, a ball is drawn
at random. What is the probability that it is white?
Success = s = 4 (white); fail = f = 7 (black), then p = 4/11
In a single throw of two dice what is the probability of
getting (a) a total of 9 ; (b) a total different from 9 ?
A total of 9 can be obtained as follows : 6+3, 3+6, 5+4, 4+5. There
are four possible ways to get a total of 9 out of 36 equally likely ways
in which two dice can fall. The probability getting a total of 9 is
4 1 1 8
p and then q 1
36 9 9 9
36 4 32 8
or q
36 36 9
DW200705 Probability 5
Expectation
If p is the probability of the occurrence of an event in a single
trial, then the expected number of occurences of expectation of
that event in n trials is defined as np
Example: In 900 trials of a throw of two dice, what is the expected
number of times that the sum will be less than 5 ?
The probability p of obtaining a total less than 5 in a single throw of two
dice, we find that s = 6 , s + f = 36, so p = 6/36 = 1/6 , and the expected
number of times the total will be less than 5 in 900 trials is 1/6 . 900 =
150.
The expectation is easily seen to be the most likely number of
successes to occur in n trials.
Example: What is the expectation of a person to obtains 3 heads in a
single toss of 3 coins?
In a single trial, if H stands for head and T for tail, the following
possibilities exist: HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT. Therefore
s = 1 , s + f = 8, and p = 1/8
DW200705 Probability 6
Three Elementary Probability Laws
If p1, p2, p3 ….. Pr are the separate probabilities of the occurrence of r
mutually exclusive events, the probability P that some one of these events
will occur in a single trial is :
P = p1 + p2 + p3 + ………………….. + pr
EXAMPLE: Find the probability of drawing an ace, king, or queen from
a regular 4 suit, 52-card deck of card.
Solution: The probability of p1 of drawing an ace in a single trial is
(4/52 ) = 1/13 ; the probability of drawing a queen is 1/13. Since this
events are mutually exclusive, the probability of drawing an ace or a
king or a queen is P = (1/13 + 1/13 + 1/13) = 3/13 ; which could also
have been found directly from the definition of probability.
Consider a large number of trial n, then the total number of successes
is equal to s = p1n + p2n + ….. + prn
DW200705 Probability 7
Consequently, in this case:
s p1n p2 n ..... pr n
P p1 p2 .... pn
n n
Consider two events which are not mutually exclusive, let p1 and p2 be
their separate probabilities and p1,2 the probability that both events will
occur together in a single trial; then
s p1n p2 n
s p1n p2 n p n P
n 1, 2
P p1 p2 p1, 2 n
n n
Two or more events are said to be independent if the probability of
occurrence of any of them is not influenced by the occurrence of any
other. Otherwise the events are dependent.
DW200705 Probability 8
If p1 , p2, p3, ……, pr are the separate probabilities of the occurrence of
r independent events, the probability P that all of these events will
occur in a single trial is:
P = p1. p2. p3. …… pr.
Example: What is the probability of obtaining three heads in a single
toss of three coins?
Solution: The probability of obtaining a head with the first coin is p1
= ½; similarly, p2 = ½, and p3 = ½ . These event are independent, and
the probability of tossing three heads with three coins is:
P = ½ . ½ . ½ = 1/8
In the case of r dependent events, if the probability of the occurrence of a
first event is p1, and if, after this event has occurred, the probability of the
occurrence of a second event is p2 , and if, after the first and second event
have occurred, the probability of the occurrence of a third event is p3, and
so on, the probability P that all events will occur in the specified order is:
P = p1.p2.p3 … . pr
DW200705 Probability 9
Example: From a deck of 52 cards, a card is withdrawn at random and
not replaced. A second card is then drawn. What is the probability that
the first card is an ace and the second a king.?
Solution: The probability of getting an ace on the first drawn is p1 =
1/13 and of getting a king in a second draw, after an ace has been
withdrawn, is p2 = 4/51. Therefore, the desired probability is
P = (1/13). (4/51) = 4/663
In solving probability problems the work will be greatly simplified if
we proceed as follows:
1. List all mutually exclusive events which are success for the
problem
2. For each of the above listed events determine the probability
3. Add all of the probabilities obtained in step 2
4. If desirable, check the result by listing the failure for the
problem.
This procedure illustrated in the following examples:
DW200705 Probability 10
Example:
What is the probability that among 23 randomly selected people at least two have
birthdays falling on the same day, that is, on the same month and day (not
necessarily the same year)?
We shall assume that each year has 365 days and that the probability of
a person having a birthday of any of these day is the same.
All 23 people will have different birthdays if all of the following 23
dependent event occur; the first person has a birthday on a day of the
year, which occur, of course, with probability 1; the second person has
his birthday on any day of the year except the one on which the first
person has his birthday, for which the probability is (364/ 365).
The third person has a birthday, on a day of the year except those of the
first two, for which the probability is (363/ 365), and so on. Therefore the
probability Q that all 23 people have different birthdays, is found to be:
364 363 362 343
Q 1. . . ..... 0.493
365 365 365 365
DW200705 Probability 11
So that the desired probability P that at least two people have
birthdays falling on the same day is given by:
P = 1 – 0.493 = 0.507
Even more surprising is the fact that this probability increases very
rapidly with increasing number of people in the room, as shown in
the following table:
Number of people Probability at least 2 people
having the same birthday
20 0.411
21 0.444
22 0.476
23 0.507
24 0.569
30 0.706
40 0.891
50 0.970
60 0.994
DW200705 Probability 12
Example:
A, B, and C in order toss a coin. The first one to throw a head wins. What
are their respective chances of winning?
Let us determine the probability that A will win; we shall denote this
probability by PA. If H stand for head, and T for tail, then the following
situations will mean success for A (note that TTTH means that A, B and
C all obtained tails on their first throws, but A obtained a head on the
second round):
1
H p1
2
1 1 1 1 1
TTTH p2 . . .
2 2 2 2 16
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
TTTTTTH p3 . . . . . .
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 128
DW200705 Probability 13
To obtain the desired probability we need to add the probabilities of
these mutually exclusive events, i.e.:
1 1 1
P A ......
2 16 128
This is an infinite geometric series and we recall that for such a series:
a
a ar ar ar .......
2 3
,
1 r
Where r, the ratio between any two consecutive numbers, is between
-1 and + 1. In this case therefore, since a = ½, r = 1/8 ;
1 1
1 8 4
PA 2
2
.
1 1
8
7
8 2 7 7
The calculation of PB and PC is left as an home exercise
DW200705 Probability 14
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
(probabilitas bersyarat)
The probability of the occurrence of an event B, given that an event A
has occurred, is called the conditional probability of the occurrence of
the event B . P (B|A)
The general formula: P(AB)
P ( B | A)
P( A)
Where the P (A|B) denotes the probability of the occurrence of both
events A and B.
Bayes’ theorem (Bayes’ law, Bayes’ formula)
DW200705 Probability 15
Bayes’ theorem (Bayes’ law, Bayes’ formula)
If B1, B2, …… Bn are n mutually exclusive events, of which some one
must occur in a given trial, that is, P (B1) + P (B2) + …. + P(Bn) = 1; and
A is any event for which P (A) ≠ 0, then the conditional probability P
(Bi|A) for any one of the events Bi, given that the event A has occurred,
is given by:
P( Bi ) P( A | Bi )
P( Bi | A) ,
P( B1 ) P( A | B1 ) P( B2 ) P( A | B2 ) ..... P( Bn ) P( A | Bn )
Example: Let A represent the event of obtaining a good shot, B1 the
event of selecting the right club, and B2 that of selecting the wrong
club. Then P(B1) = 1/5, P(B2) = 4/5, P(A|B1) = 1/3, P(A|B2) = ¼, and,
using Bayes’ formula:
1 1 1
P( A | B1 ) . 1
P( B1 | A) 1 15 34 1 15
.
P( B1 ) P( A | B1 ) P( B2 ) P( A | B2 ) 5 . 3 5 . 4 4
15 4
DW200705 Probability 16
Theorem: The probability of the joint occurrence of two events A and Bi,
where Bi is anyone of the events B1, B2, …., Bn, then it may be written as:
P(ABi) = P(A) P(Bi|A) = P(Bi) P(A|Bi)
From which it follows, if P(A) ≠ 0, that:
P( A) P(A | Bi )
P(Bi | A)
P ( A)
Now, since B1, B2, ….., Bn are n mutually exclusive events of which
some one must occurs in a given trial, we have:
P( A) P( AB1 ) P( AB2 ) ....... P( ABn )
P( B1 ) P( A | B1 ) P( B2 ) P( A | B2 )........... P( Bn ) P( A | Bn )
DW200705 Probability 17
EXAMPLE:
Three automatic machines produce similar automotive parts. Machine A produce
40% of the total, machine B, 25%, and machine C, 35%. On the average, 10% of
the parts turned out by machine A do not conform to the specification, and for
machine B and C the corresponding percent are 5% and 1% respectively. If one
part is selected at random from the combined output and is found not to conform
to the specification, what is the probability that it was produced by machine A ?
Let D represent the event of selecting a defective part, we need to determined the
probability, P (A|D) of the part having been selected from machine A.
P( A) P( D | A)
P ( A | D)
P ( D)
The sum of the following probabilities:
Therefore:
P(DA) = P(A) P(D|A) = (0.40) (0.10) = 0.0400
(0.40)(0.10)
P(DB) = P(B) P(D|B) = (0.25) (0.05) = 0.0125 P ( A | D) 0.714
(0.0560)
P(DC) = P(C) P(D|C) = (0.35) (0.01) = 0.0035
0.0560 Which shows that on the
average machine A produces
71.4% of the defective parts
DW200705 Probability 18
COMBINATION and PERMUTATION
Each of the set which can be made by using all or part of a given collection
of objects, without regard to order of the objects, is called a combination
Each different ordering or arrangement of all or part of a set of objects is
called a permutation
EXAMPLE:
From the letter A, B, C, D in set of 3, find:
1. The number of combination
2. The number of permutation
Solution:
(a) the letter A,B,C, D can be taken in set of 3, without regard to order, in the following
ways: ABC, ABD,ACD, and BCD. Therefore, there are four such combination, i.e.:
there are four combinations of four objects taken 3 at a time.
(b) If ordering is considered also, there are the following permutations of the letters A,
B, C, D in set of 3: ABC, ACB, BAC, BCA, CAB, CBA, ABD, ADB, BAD, BDA, DAB,
DBA, ACD, ADC, CAD, CDA, DAC, DCA, BCD, BDC, CBD, CDB, DBC, DCB, there are
24 permutation
DW200705 Probability 19
EXAMPLE:
Find (a) the number of combinations, (b) the number of permutations, of four
objects taken four at a time.
SOLUTION:
1. Since all 4 objects have to be used in the set, there is only one such
combination in this case.
2. The numberof orderings of the 4 letters A, B, C, D is easily found to be 24,
trhus there are 24 permutations of 4 objects taken four at a time
DW200705 Probability 20
The permutation of A, B, C, D.
C D
C D
B A
D C
D C
B D B A D
A C C
D B D A
B C A C
D D
C B C A
B D B C
A A
D B C B
A D A C
C B D B
D A C A
A B A B
D C
B A B A
DW200705 Probability 21
n!
The formula of permutation: Pn ,r
(n r )!
For those above example: Here n = 4, and r = 3, so P4,3 = 4! / 1 ! = 4.3.2 = 24
n!
The formula of combination: Cn , r
r!(n r )!
Or, if we divide numerator and denominator by (n - r) ! ,
n(n 1)( n 2)....( n r 1)
Cn , r
r!
For those above example: Here n = 4, and r = 3, so 4! 4.3.2.1
C 4,3 4
3.2.1.1
3! 1!
These notation are also used for n
Cn,r ; Crn ; Cn ; nCr ; n Cr ; C (n, r );
n
r
DW200705 Probability 22
The main difficulty
Kesulitan utama dalam menjawab
encountered in problem
masalah tentang permutasi dan
involving permutations and
kombinasi yaitu menentukan apakah
combination is deciding
problem ini termasuk permutasi
whether the problem involves
ataukah kombinasi. Dalam
the number of permutations or
menyelesaikan kasus seperti itu,
the number of combinations.
pertama disarankan untuk
In solving such problem it is
menentukan apakah perubahan
advisable to determine first
urutan obyek akan membuat suatu
whether a change of order in
perbedaan dalam hasil yang
the objects would make a
dikehendaki, jika ya, maka
difference in the desired
diinginkan angka permutasi, jika
result; if it does, the number of
tidak, yang diinginkan adalah
permutation is desired; if it
kombinasi
does not, the number of
combination is wanted
DW200705 Probability 23
EXAMPLE
A student body president is asked to appoint a committee
consisting of 5 boys and 3 girls. He is given a list of 10 boys and
7 girls from which to make appointments. From how many possible
committees must he make selection?
Solution:
In a particular committee, if the order of the appointees is changed, the
result would still be the same committee, so this is a problem of involving
combinations. From 10 boys the student body can select:
10!
C10,5 252
5!5!
group of 5 boys. From 7 girls he can select :
7!
C7 , 3 35
3!4!
groups of 3 girls. Therefore for each of the 252 selection of boys there were
35 possible choices of girls; thus the total number of possible committee is
equal to: (252)(35) = 8820
DW200705 Probability 24
Notes: we assume no Catatan: kita menganggap tak
distinction between the ada pembedaan antara berbagai
various position in the posisi dalam kepengurusan.
committee. However, if the Tetapi, jika kepengurusan terdiri
committee is to consist of a dari ketua, wakil ketua,
president, vice-president, sekretaris, bendahara, dsb,
secretary, treasurer, etc. that yaitu, jika masing-masing
is, if each of the eight delapan posisi kepengurusan
positions of the committee has mempunyai tujuan berbeda dan
a different designation and we kita ingin membedakan juga
wish to differentiate also antara berbagai kemungkinan
between the various possible susunan anggota kepengurusan
assignments of the members pada posisi ini, tentu saja, kita
of the committee to these harus menhitung jumlah
position, we must, of course, permutasi.
calculate the number of
permutations.
DW200705 Probability 25
REPEATED TRIAL (PENGUJIAN BERULANG)
During repeated trial, the probability of success in a single trial remain
fixed, the calculation of the probability of obtaining a given number, say r,
of success in these n trials can be greatly simplified.
We toss a coin several times (or toss several coins once), where H = head,
T = tail , probability of obtaining head is p = ½ , and the probability of
obtaining a tail is q = ½ .
We look at the table next :
In n tosses of a coin, the probabilities of the various possible events
(i.e: obtaining 0, 1, 2, …… n heads) are given by the successive terms of
the binomial expansion of (q + p)n, which is:
(q+p)n = qn + Cn,1 qn-1 p + Cn,2 qn-2 p2 + … .+ Cn,r qn-r pr + pn.
DW200705 Probability 26
Results of repeated trial in coin tossing
Number of Enumeration of Probabilities Expansion Whose Terms Correspond to
tosses possible results Corresponding to These These Probabilities
Results
1 T, H q, p (q + p )1 = q + p
2 TT, TH, HT, q2, qp, qp, p2 (q + p)2 = q2 + 2 qp + p2
HH
3 TTT, TTH, q3, q2p, q2p, q2p, (q + p )3 = q3 + 3 q2p + 3 qp2 + p3
THT, HTT, qp2, qp2, qp2, q3
THH, HTH,
HHT, HHH
… …… ……. ………
……… ……. …….. …….
n (q + p)n = qn + n qn-1 p + …..+ pn
Back to previous slide
DW200705 Probability 27
The coefficient Cn,r represent the number of ways in which n tosses of a coin
can produce exactly r heads and n-r tails. It is precisely the same as the number
of combinations of n things taken r at a time.
The term Cn,r qn-r pr = Cn,r (1/2)n-r (1/2)r , represent the probability that exactly
r heads and n-r tails occur in the n tosses
For example: the probability of obtaining exactly 2 heads in 3 tosses of a coin is
given by: C3,2 q3-2 p2 = 3 (1/2)(1/2)2 = 3/8 , where the coefficient C3,2 = 3
correspond to the 3 cases THH, HTH, HTT, in which 2 heads can be obtained in 3
tosses of a coin.
EXAMPLE
Find the probability of getting 5 exactly twice in 7 throws of a die (tentukan peluang
memperoleh 5 sebanyak dua kali dalam 7 kali lemparan sebuah dadu)
The probability of success (getting a 5) in a single trial is p = 1/6 from which q = 5/6.
Since the number of trial n = 7, and the required number of success r = 2, the
desired probability is the term containing p2 in the expansion of (q+p)7, i.e: C7,2 q5
p2.
Since (q+p)7 = q7 + 7 q6p + 21 q5 p2 + …………. + p7
We find P = 21q5 p2 = 21 (5/6)5 (1/6)2 = 21875/ 93312
DW200705 Probability 28
Thank you
DW200705 Probability 29
DW200705 Probability 30
