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Or Simulation

Computer simulation uses models to study systems that are difficult or impossible to experiment on directly. It is useful across many fields for investigating problems and solutions without risks of real experimentation. Simulations can be static or dynamic, continuous or discrete, and deterministic or stochastic. They involve building a model of the system and running experiments on it to evaluate outcomes. Key benefits include lower costs than real experiments, ability to test conditions that would be dangerous or impractical in reality, and capacity for precise replication. Challenges include developing valid models and analyzing large volumes of output data.

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Balaji Ganesh
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362 views25 pages

Or Simulation

Computer simulation uses models to study systems that are difficult or impossible to experiment on directly. It is useful across many fields for investigating problems and solutions without risks of real experimentation. Simulations can be static or dynamic, continuous or discrete, and deterministic or stochastic. They involve building a model of the system and running experiments on it to evaluate outcomes. Key benefits include lower costs than real experiments, ability to test conditions that would be dangerous or impractical in reality, and capacity for precise replication. Challenges include developing valid models and analyzing large volumes of output data.

Uploaded by

Balaji Ganesh
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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 Simulation – “A way to reproduce the conditions of

a situation, as by means of a model, for study or


testing or training, etc.” – Oxford American
Dictionary (1980)

 Computer simulation uses the power of a computer


to carry out experimentation on a model of the
system of interest.

 Applies in many fields and industries


◦ Numerous academic fields including computer science,
finance, management science, network, system dynamics,
organization theory, logistics, and so on
 Very popular and powerful method
 It is often impossible to do experimentation
in reality with the actual system
◦ System doesn’t exist
◦ Would be disruptive, expensive, or dangerous
 You can use simulation in the research
stages such as:
 Investigation of problem and solution
 Evaluation and validation
 Static vs. Dynamic
◦ Does time have a role in the model?
 Continuous vs. Discrete
◦ Can the “state” change continuously or only at
discrete points in time?
 Deterministic vs. Stochastic
◦ Is everything for sure or is there uncertainty?
 Most operational models:
◦ Dynamic, Discrete, Stochastic
 Discrete system
◦ The system state can change only in a countable number of
points in time!
◦ Event = an instantaneous change in state.
 Example: a queuing system
◦ System state: Number of customer
◦ At each time number of customer can only change by an
integer
 Continuous system
 Simulating the flight of a rocket in the air
◦ System state: rocket position and weight
◦ State changes continuously in time (according to a
partial differential equation)
 Model – set of assumptions/approximations about how the
system works
◦ Study the model instead of the real system … usually much
easier, faster, cheaper, safer
◦ Can try wide-ranging ideas with the model
 Make your mistakes on the computer where they don’t
count, rather than for real where they do count
◦ Often, just building the model is instructive – regardless of
results
◦ Model validity (any kind of model … not just simulation)
 Care in building to mimic reality faithfully
 Level of detail
 Get same conclusions from the model as you would from
system
“A collection of elements that function together to achieve a
desired goal” – (Blanchard 1991)

Key Points: Examples of Systems:


 A system consists of  Traffic Systems
multiple elements
 Political Systems
 Elements are interrelated
 Economic Systems
and work in cooperation
 Manufacturing Systems
 Exists for the purpose of
achieving specific objectives  Service Systems
Incoming Entities System Outgoing Entities

Activities

Outcomes
Resources Controls

Entities - Items processed through the system such as products, customers, and documents.

Activities – Tasks performed in the system that are either directly or indirectly involved in the
processing of entities.

Resources – The means by which activities are performed.


Controls – Dictate how, when, and where activities are performed, they impose order on the system.
Decision Variables – Sometimes referred to as the independent
variables. Changing the value of the decision variables changes the
behavior of the system.

State Variables – Indicate the status of the system at any specific


point in time.

Response Variables – Measure the performance of the system


in response to particular decision variables.
System complexity is a function of two factors:
1. Interdependencies
2. Variability
(Interdependencies + Variability = Complexity)
1 2 3
Modeling Computing Experimentation
 Data collection and  Different types of models  Experiment must be
Analysis require different types of planned so that the
software: various factors which
 Simulation model
may influence the
development 1. Data driven – Suitable
results can be
for less complex
 Validation, Verification, disentangled.
applications
Calibration
 Experimenter must
2. Bespoke Program – In
consider how long to run
cases with many entity
the simulation
classes each with many
members  Experimenter must be
familiar with the
appropriate statistical
methods.
1. Define an achievable goal
2. Put together a complete mix of skills on
the team
3. Involve the end-user
4. Choose the appropriate simulation tools
5. Model the appropriate level(s) of detail
6. Start early to collect the necessary input
data

Introduction 14
7. Provide adequate and on-going
documentation
8. Develop a plan for adequate model
verification
(Did we get the “right answers ?”)
9. Develop a plan for model validation
(Did we ask the “right questions ?”)
10. Develop a plan for statistical output
analysis

Introduction 15
“To model the…” is NOT a goal!
“To model the…in order to
select/determine feasibility/…is a
goal.
Goal selection is not cast in concrete
Goals change with increasing insight

Introduction 16
We Need:
-Knowledge of the system under
investigation
-System analyst skills (model formulation)
-Model building skills (model
Programming)
-Data collection skills
-Statistical skills (input data representation)
Introduction 17
We Need:
-More statistical skills (output data analysis)
-Even more statistical skills (design of
experiments)
-Management skills (to get everyone pulling
in the same direction)

Introduction 18
-Modeling is a selling job!
-Does anyone believe the results?
-Will anyone put the results into action?
-The End-user (your customer) can (and
must) do all of the above BUT, first he must
be convinced!
-He must believe it is HIS Model!

Introduction 19
Assuming Simulation is the appropriate
means, three alternatives exist:
1. Build Model in a General Purpose
Language
2. Build Model in a General Simulation
Language
3. Use a Special Purpose Simulation
Package

Introduction 20
 1.GPSS (General purpose simulation system)
 2. SIMSCRIPT
 3. SLAM II- Simulation language for
Alternative modelling
 4. SIMNET II
 5. DYNAMO
l Designing and analyzing manufacturing
systems
l Evaluating H/W and S/W requirements for a
computer system
l Evaluating a new military weapons system or
tactics
l Determining ordering policies for an
inventory system
l Designing communications systems and
message protocols for them

Introduction 22
l Designing and operating transportation
facilities such as freeways, airports, subways,
or ports
l Evaluating designs for service organizations
such as hospitals, post offices, or fast-food
restaurants
l Analyzing financial or economic systems

Introduction 23
 Cost – experiments on real systems may
turn out to be expensive
 Time – it is possible to simulate weeks,
months, or even years in seconds of
computer time
 Replication – the real world rarely allows
precise replication of an experiment, but
simulations are precisely repeatable.
 Safety – you can study the effect of extreme
conditions, which could be dangerous, or
illegal in real life.
 Each run of a simulation only gives an
estimate of true system performance.
Requires statistical methods to give more
precise results
 Simulation models can be expensive and
time-consuming to develop
 Often difficult to validate the model
 Large volume of output data and attractive
graphics often mask problems in the
natural assumptions

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