PERT CPM

-Program Evaluation and Critical Path Method

Review Technique Developed by El Dupont
- developed by the US for Chemical Plant
Navy with Booz Shutdown Project- about
Hamilton Lockheed same time as PERT
- on the Polaris
Missile/Submarine
program 1958

Both use same calculations, almost similar

Main difference is probabilistic and deterministic in time
estimation
1
 Graphical portrayal of activities and
event
 Shows dependency relationships
between tasks/activities in a project
 Clearly shows tasks that must precede
(precedence) or follow (succeeding)
other tasks in a logical manner
 Clear representation of plan – a
powerful tool for planning and
controlling project

2
 Activity : any portions of project (tasks) which required
by project, uses up resource and consumes
time – may involve labor, paper work,
contractual negotiations, machinery operations
Activity on Arrow (AOA) showed as arrow, AON
– Activity on Node
 Event : beginning or ending points of one or more
activities, instantaneous point in time, also
called ‘nodes’

 Network : Combination of all project activities and the events

PRECEEDING SUCCESSOR
ACTIVITY

EVENT

3
 Construction of network should be based on logical or
technical dependencies among activities

 Example - before activity ‘Approve Drawing’ can be

started the activity ‘Prepare Drawing’ must be completed

WRONG !!! CORRECT 

4
 B
A
A must finish before either B or C can start

A
C both A and B must finish before C can start

A
C
both A and C must finish before either of
B
D B or D can start

5
•Dummy activities is used to identify precedence relationships
correctly and to eliminate possible confusion of two or more
activities having the same starting and ending nodes
•Dummy activities have no resources (time, labor, machinery,
etc) – purpose is to PRESERVE LOGIC of the network

Network activities
a
a 2

1 2 1 Dummy

b 3
b
WRONG!!! RIGHT 

6
 Activity c not
required for e
a
a e
d
1
b 1 b
e
d
c
2
c
WRONG
RIGHT
!!!


A
B
A must finish before B can start
Dummy both A and C must finish before D can start

C
D 7
8
 Consider the list of four activities for making a simple product:

Activity Description Immediate

predecessors
A Buy Plastic Body -
B Design Component -
C Make Component B
D Assemble product A,C

Immediate predecessors for a particular activity are the activities

that, when completed, enable the start of the activity in question.

9
 Can start work on activities A and B anytime, since
neither of these activities depends upon the
completion of prior activities.
 Activity C cannot be started until activity B has been
completed
 Activity D cannot be started until both activities A
and C have been completed.
 The graphical representation (next slide) is referred
to as the PERT/CPM network

10
 Arcs indicate project activities

A D
1 3 4

B C

Nodes correspond to the beginning

and ending of activities

11
Activity Immediate Completion Time
predecessors (Weeks)
A - 5
B - 6
C B 4
D A, C 3
E C 8
F C 4
G D,E,F 14
____
44
____
This information indicates that the total time required to complete
activities is 44 weeks. However, we can see from the network that
several of the activities can be conducted simultaneously (A and B, for
example).

12
 Network of Seven Activities
1 A 3 D 4 G
7
dummy E
B
C 5 F
2 6

•Note how the network correctly identifies D, E, and F as the

immediate predecessors for activity G.

13
 Path
 A connected sequence of activities leading from the
starting event to the ending event

 Critical Path
 The longest path (time); determines the project
duration

 Critical Activities
 All of the activities that make up the critical path

14
 Network of Seven Activities
Non-Critical activity

1 A5 3 D3 4 G14
7
dummy
E8
B6
dummy
C4 5 F4
Critical activity 2 6

Path 1 : A+D+G 5+3+14 = 22 Weeks

Path 2 : B+C+Dummy+D+G 6+4+0+3+14 = 27 Weeks
Path 3 : B+C+E+G 6+4+8+14 = 32 Weeks
Path 4 : B+C+F+dummy+G 6+4+4+0+14 = 28 Weeks

Critical Path = Path 3

15
Activity Immediate Completion
predecessors Time (week)
A - 5
B - 6
C A 4
D A 3
E A 1
F E 4
G D,F 14
H B,C 12
I G,H 2
Total …… 51

This information indicates that the total time required to complete

activities is 51 weeks. However, we can see from the network that several

of the activities can be conducted simultaneously (A and B, for example).

16
Each event has two important times associated with it :
- Earliest time , Te , which is a calendar time when a event can occur
when all the predecessor events completed at the earliest possible
times
- Latest time , TL , which is the latest time the event can occur with
out delaying the subsequent events and completion of project.

 Difference between the latest time and the earliest time of an event is
the slack time for that event

Positive slack : Slack is the amount of time an event can be delayed

without delaying the project completion
 Is that the sequence of activities and events where there is no
“slack” i.e.. Zero slack

 Longest path through a network

 minimum project completion time

 Earliest Start Time (ES)
 earliest time an activity can start
 ES = maximum EF of immediate predecessors
 Earliest finish time (EF)
 earliest time an activity can finish
 earliest start time plus activity time
EF= ES + t

Latest Start Time (LS)

Latest time an activity can start without delaying critical path time
LS= LF - t

Latest finish time (LF)

latest time an activity can be completed without delaying critical path time
LF = minimum LS of immediate predecessors

19
 We are interested in the longest path through the
network, i.e., the critical path.

 Starting at the network’s origin (node 1) and using a

starting time of 0, we compute an earliest start (ES) and
earliest finish (EF) time for each activity in the network.

 The expression EF = ES + t can be used to find the

earliest finish time for a given activity.
For example, for activity A, ES = 0 and t = 5; thus the
earliest finish time for activity A is
EF = 0 + 5 = 5

20
 EF = earliest finish time

ES = earliest start time

Activity

2
[ 0,5]
A
5
1
t = expected activity
time

21
 D[5,8]
2 5
3
E[ 1 0]
6,

G[1 4
5,6 F[
5 ,5]

1 ] 4

0,2
1
7
0
A[

26]
C[5,9]

4]
4 24 ,
4

I[
2
1 6
B[0
,6] [ 9, 21]
6 H
12
3

Earliest start time rule:

The earliest start time for an activity leaving a particular node is equal to
the largest of the earliest finish times for all activities entering the node.

22
 EF = earliest finish time

ES = earliest start time

Activity

3
[5 ,9 ]
C
[ 8 ,12]
4
2
LF = latest finish time
LS = latest start time

23
 To find the critical path we need a backward pass calculation.
 Starting at the completion point (node 7) and using a latest
finish time (LF) of 26 for activity I, we trace back through the
network computing a latest start (LS) and latest finish time
for each activity
 The expression LS = LF – t can be used to calculate latest start
time for each activity. For example, for activity I, LF = 26 and t
= 2, thus the latest start time for activity I is
LS = 26 – 2 = 24

24
 D[5,8] 5
2 3[7,10]
0]

G[1 10,24
E[ 1

14[
1[5 5,6] [ 6, 10]

0,2 ]
F 6,
5[ 0,5]

,6]
4[ 7
5]

4]
A[
0,

4 2 4, 26]
C[5,9]

I[
4[8,12]

2 4 , 26]
2[
1 6
B[0
6[6 ,6] [ 9, 21]
H ,24]
, 12 [ 12
] 12
3

Latest finish time rule:

The latest finish time for an activity entering a particular node is equal to
the smallest of the latest start times for all activities leaving the node.

25
Slack is the length of time an activity can be delayed without affecting the
completion date for the entire project.
For example, slack for C = 3 weeks, i.e Activity C can be delayed up to 3
weeks
,9 ] 3
(start anywhere between weeks 5 and 8).
C [5
2 [ 8 ,12]
4
ES LS EF EF
5 8 9 12

LF-EF = 12 –9 =3

LS-ES = 8 – 5 = 3

LF-ES-t = 12-5-4 = 3

26
Critical Slack Latest Earliest Latest Earliest Activity
path )LS-ES( finish (LF) finish (EF) start (LS) start (ES)

Yes 0 5 5 0 0 A
6 12 6 6 0 B
3 12 9 8 5 C
2 10 8 7 5 D
Yes 0 6 6 5 5 E
Yes 0 10 10 6 6 F
Yes 0 24 24 10 10 G
3 24 21 12 9 H
Yes 0 26 26 24 24 I
27
Illustration of network analysis of a minor redesign of a product and
.its associated packaging
 Before starting any of the above activity, the questions
asked would be

"What activities must be finished before this activity can start"•

?could we complete this project in 30 weeks•

?could we complete this project in 2 weeks•

One answer could be, if we first do activity 1, then activity 2, then activity
3, ...., then activity 10, then activity 11 and the project would then take the sum
.of the activity completion times, 30 weeks

“ ? What is the minimum possible time in which we can complete this project “
We shall see below how the network analysis diagram/picture we construct
.helps us to answer this question
CRITICAL PATH TAKES 24 WEEKS FOR THE COMPLETION OF THE PROJECT
 CPM Network
f, 15

g,
g, 17
17 h,
h, 99
a, 6
i,i, 66

b, 8

d, 13 j,j, 12
12

c,
c, 55
e,
e, 99

33
 Forward Pass
 ES and EF Times f, 15

g,
g, 17
17 h,
h, 99
a,
a, 66
0 6 i,i, 66

b, 8

0 8 d, 13 j,j, 12
12

c,
c, 55

0 5 e,
e, 99

34
 Forward Pass
 ES and EF Times f, 15

6 21
g,
g, 17
17 h,
h, 99
a,
a, 66
0 6 6 23 i,i, 66

b, 8

0 8 d, 13 j,j, 12
12

8 21
c,
c, 55

0 5 e,
e, 99

5 14

35
 Forward Pass
 ES and EF Times
f, 15

6 21
g,
g, 17
17 h,
h, 99
a,
a, 66
21 30
0 6 6 23 i,i, 66

23 29
b, 8

0 8 d, 13 j,j, 12
12

8 21 21 33
c,
c, 55

0 5 e,
e, 99
Project’s EF = 33
5 14

36
 Backward Pass
 LS and LF Times f,f, 15
15
6 21
h,
h, 99
21 30
a,
a, 66 g,
g, 17
17
24 33
0 6 6 23 i,i, 66

23 29
b, 8 27 33

0 8 d, 13 j,j, 12
12
8 21
21 33
c,
c, 55 21 33
0 5 e, 9

5 14

37
 Backward Pass
f,f, 15
15
 LS and LF Times
6 21
h,
h, 99
18 24
21 30
a,
a, 66 g,
g, 17
17
24 33
0 6 6 23 i,i, 66

4 10 10 27 23 29
b, 8 27 33

0 8 d, 13 j,j, 12
12
0 8 8 21
21 33
c,
c, 55 8 21
21 33
0 5 e, 9
7 12 5 14
12 21
38
 Float / Slack
f,f, 15
15
6 21
3 h,
h, 99
9 24
21 30
a,
a, 66 g,
g, 17
17 3
24 33
0 6 6 23 i,i, 66
3 4
3 9 10 27 23 29
4
b, 8 27 33

0 8 d, 13 j,j, 12
12
0
0 8 8 21 21 33
0 0
c,
c, 55 8 21 21 33
0 5 e,
e, 99
7
7 12 5 14
7
12 21
39
 Critical Path f, 15

g,
g, 17
17 h,
h, 99
a,
a, 66
i,i, 66

b, 8
d,
d, 13
13
j,j, 12
12

c,
c, 55
e,
e, 99

40
 PERT is based on the assumption that an activity’s
duration follows a probability distribution instead of
being a single value

 Three time estimates are required to compute the

parameters of an activity’s duration distribution:

 Pessimistic time ( tp ) - the time the activity would

take if things did not go well

 Most likely time ( tm ) - the consensus best estimate

of the activity’s duration

 Optimistic time ( to ) - the time the activity would

take if things did go well

41
 tp + 4 tm + to
= Mean (expected time): e
6

= Standard Deviation :  t p - to
6

= Variance: =2 tp - to
6

42
 Draw the network.

 Analyze the paths through the network and find the critical
path.

 The length of the critical path is the mean of the project duration
probability distribution which is assumed to be normal

 The standard deviation of the project duration probability

distribution is computed by adding the variances of the critical
activities (all of the activities that make up the critical path) and
taking the square root of that sum

 Probability computations can now be made using the normal

distribution table.
43
 Immed. Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Mean
Activity Predec. Time (Weeks) Time (Weeks) Time (Weeks) Time

A -- 4 6 8 6
B -- 1 4.5 5 4
C A 3 3 3 3
D A 4 5 6 5
E A 0.5 1 1.5 1
F B,C 3 4 5 4
G B,C 1 1.5 5 2
H E,F 5 6 7 6
I E,F 2 5 8 5
J D,H 2.5 2.75 4.5 3
K G,I 3 5 7 5
44
 D5
2 5

A6 E1 H6 J3

1 C3 4 7

B4 I5 K5
F4

G2
3 6

Expected Value of time in the critical Path is 23 Weeks 45

Activity Expected Time Variance

A 6 4/9

C 3 0

F 4 1/9

I 5 1

K 5 4/9
46
Determine probability that project is completed within specified time

x-
=Z


where  = tp = project mean time

 = project standard mean time
x = (proposed ) specified time

47
Vpath = VA + VC + VF + VI + VK
= 4/9 + 0 + 1/9 + 1 + 4/9
= 2

path = 1.414

z = (24 - 23)/(24-23)/1.414 = .71

From the Standard Normal Distribution table:

P(z < .71) = .5 + .2612 = .7612

48
 Probability

Z

 = tp x Time

49