Session 12 13
Session 12 13
Session 13
Types of Decisions
Programmed Nonprogrammed
Decision Decision
a simple, routine a new, complex decision
matter for which a that requires a creative
manager has an solution
established decision
rule
Recognize the problem and
Decision the need for a decision
Making
Process
Identify the objective of
the decision
Gather feedback
Follow up
Models of decision making
Rational Decision Making
completely rational
• Bounded Rationality
• Use heuristics
6-8
• How does bounded rationality work?
– Overconfidence Bias:
• Overestimation of performance and ability.
• People think they know more than they do, and it costs them.
– Anchoring Bias:
• fixating on initial information as a starting point and failing to
adequately adjust for subsequent information.
Common Biases and Errors in Decision Making
• Motivational Biases:
– Collision between multiple selves (emotion vs. reason)
– Positive illusions
• Hindsight Bias:
– The tendency of people to overestimate their ability to have predicted
an outcome that could not possibly have been predicted.
– In essence, the hindsight bias is sort of like saying “I knew it!” when an
outcome (either expected or unexpected) occurs – and the belief that
one actually predicted it correctly.
Individual factors that affect decision making
• Personality
• Conscientiousness
• High self-esteem
• Risk aversion
• Gender
• Mental Ability
• Cultural Differences
Influences on Decision Making
• (Source:Parikh, Jagdish, Neubaeur, Fred & Lank, Alden G. (1996), Intuition: The New
Frontier of Management; 3rd edition, Blackwell Business)
Group Decision Making
From Janis, Irving L., Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes, Second Edition. Copyright
© 1982 by Houghton Mifflin Company.
Group Decision Techniques
Nominal Dialectical
Group Inquiry
Technique Brainstorming
Brainstorming
Quality Circles
and Quality Teams
Devil’s Advocacy
Group Decision Making
– After this silent period, each member presents one idea to the group.
– The ideas are discussed for clarity.
– Each group member rank-orders the ideas.
– The idea with the highest aggregate ranking determines the final
decision.
Special Decision-Making Groups
Organizational Individual
Foundation Foundation