What is survival analysis?
Statistical methods for analyzing longitudinal data
on the occurrence of events. Usage In specific to
Healthcare sector
Events may include death, injury, onset of illness,
recovery from illness (binary variables) or
transition above or below the clinical threshold of a
meaningful continuous variable (e.g. CD4 counts).
Accommodates data from randomized clinical trial
or cohort study design.
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Examples of survival analysis
in medicine
2
RCT: Women’s Health
Initiative (JAMA, 2002)
On hormones
Cumulative
incidence On placebo
Women’s Health Initiative
Writing Group.
JAMA. 2002;288:321-333. 3
WHI and low-fat diet…
Control
Low-fat diet
Prentice et al.
JAMA, February 8,
2006; 295: 629 -
642. 4
Objectives of survival analysis
Estimate time-to-event for a group of
individuals/objects, such as time until second
heart-attack for a group of MI patients (for our use
case time until second loop gets triggered)
To compare time-to-event between two or
more groups, such as treated vs. placebo MI
patients in a randomized controlled trial.
To assess the relationship of co-variables to
time-to-event, such as: does weight, insulin
resistance, or cholesterol influence survival time of
MI patients?
Note: expected time-to-event = 1/incidence rate
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Why use survival analysis?
1. Why not compare mean time-to-event
between your groups using a t-test or
linear regression?
-- ignores censoring
2. Why not compare proportion of events
in your groups using risk/odds ratios or
logistic regression?
--ignores time
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Survival Analysis: Terms
Time-to-event: The time from entry into a
study until a subject has a particular outcome
Censoring: Subjects are said to be censored
if they are lost to follow up or drop out of the
study, or if the study ends before they die or
have an outcome of interest. They are
counted as alive or disease-free for the time
they were enrolled in the study.
If dropout is related to both outcome and
treatment, dropouts may bias the results