Discrete Probability

Distribution
TOPICS
Random Variables and their Probability Distribution
Cumulative Distribution Functions
Expected Values of Random Variables
The Binomial Distribution
The Poisson Distribution
RANDOM VARIABLES
A random variable x represents a numerical value associated with each
outcome of a probability distribution.

A random variable is discrete if it has a finite or countable number of

possible outcomes that can be listed.

A random variable is continuous if it has an uncountable number or

possible outcomes, represented by the intervals on a number line.
RANDOM VARIABLES
Example:
Decide if the random variable x is discrete or continuous.

a.) The distance your car travels from home to USTP.

The distance your car travels is a continuous random variable
because it is a measurement that cannot be counted. (All
measurements are continuous random variables.)

b.) The number of students in CpE1D class.

The number of students is a discrete random variable because it
can be counted.
Discrete Probability Distributions
A discrete probability distribution lists each possible value the random
variable can assume, together with its probability. A probability distribution
must satisfy the following conditions.

In Words In Symbols

1. The probability of each value of the discrete 0  P (x)  1

random variable is between 0 and 1,
inclusive.

2. The sum of all the probabilities is 1. ΣP (x) = 1

 Constructing a Discrete Probability Distribution

Guidelines
Let x be a discrete random variable with possible outcomes x1, x2, … , xn.

1. Make a frequency distribution for the possible outcomes.

2. Find the sum of the frequencies.

3. Find the probability of each possible outcome by dividing its frequency by

the sum of the frequencies.

4. Check that each probability is between 0 and 1 and that the sum is 1.
 Constructing a Discrete Probability Distribution

Example:
The spinner below is divided into two sections. The probability of landing on the 1
is 0.25. The probability of landing on the 2 is 0.75. Let x be the number the
spinner lands on. Construct a probability distribution for the random variable x.

x P (x)
1
1 0.25 Each probability is
2 2 0.75 between 0 and 1.

The sum of the probabilities is 1.

Constructing a Discrete Probability Distribution
Example:
The spinner below is spun two times. The probability of landing on the 1 is
0.25. The probability of landing on the 2 is 0.75. Let x be the sum of the
two spins. Construct a probability distribution for the random variable x.

The possible sums are 2, 3, and 4.

1
P (sum of 2) = 0.25  0.25 = 0.0625
2
Spin a 1 on the “and” Spin a 1 on the second
first spin. spin.
 RANDOM VARIABLES

P (sum of 3) = 0.25  0.75 = 0.1875

1
Spin a 1 on the “and” Spin a 2 on the second
2 first spin. spin.
“or”

P (sum of 3) = 0.75  0.25 = 0.1875

Sum of spins,
x P (x) Spin a 2 on the Spin a 1 on the second
“and”
2 0.0625 first spin. spin.
3 0.375
4 0.1875 + 0.1875
 RANDOM VARIABLES

1 P (sum of 4) = 0.75  0.75 = 0.5625

Spin a 2 on the “and” Spin a 2 on the second

2
first spin. spin.

Sum of spins,
x P (x)
2 0.0625 Each probability is between 0 and 1,
3 0.375 and the sum of the probabilities is 1.
4 0.5625
 Graphing a Discrete Probability Distribution

P(x) Sum of Two Spins

Sum of 0.6
spins, x P (x)
0.5
2 0.0625 0.4

Probability
3 0.375
0.3
4 0.5625
0.2

0.1
0 x
2 3 4
Sum
MEAN
The mean of a discrete random variable is given by μ = ΣxP(x).
Each value of x is multiplied by its corresponding probability and the
products are added.

Example:
Find the mean of the probability distribution for the sum of the two spins.

x P (x) xP (x)
2 0.0625 2(0.0625) = 0.125 ΣxP(x) = 3.5
3 0.375 3(0.375) = 1.125
4 0.5625 4(0.5625) = 2.25 The mean for the two
spins is 3.5.
VARIANCE
The variance of a discrete random variable is given by
2 = Σ(x – μ)2P (x).

Example:
Find the variance of the probability distribution for the sum of the two spins.
The mean is 3.5.
ΣP(x)(x – 2)2
x P (x) x–μ (x – μ)2 P (x)(x – μ)2  0.376
2 0.0625 –1.5 2.25  0.141
3 0.375 –0.5 0.25  0.094 The variance for the two
spins is approximately
4 0.5625 0.5 0.25  0.141 0.376
 STANDARD DEVIATION

The standard deviation of a discrete random variable is given by

Example:
Find the standard deviation of the probability distribution for the sum of the two
spins. The variance is 0.376.

x P (x) x–μ (x – μ)2 P (x)(x – μ)2 σ  σ2

2 0.0625 –1.5 2.25 0.141  0.376  0.613
3 0.375 –0.5 0.25 0.094 Most of the sums differ from
4 0.5625 0.5 0.25 0.141 the mean by no more than
0.6 points.
TOPICS
Random Variables and their Probability Distribution
Cumulative Distribution Functions
Expected Values of Random Variables
The Binomial Distribution
The Poisson Distribution
Cumulative Distribution Function

The cumulative distribution function (FX) gives the probability that the
random variable X is less than or equal to a certain number x. Its formula
is:

FX(x)=P(X<=x)

CDF for all R. R in a dice roll is the range of outcomes or {2...12}

Cumulative Distribution Function

In general, we can assume that the probability for anything less than
two is zero, since you cannot roll a one with two dice. Also, that the
probability for all of the numbers in a defined range will equal 1 or
100%.
TOPICS
Random Variables and their Probability Distribution
Cumulative Distribution Functions
Expected Values of Random Variables
The Binomial Distribution
The Poisson Distribution
EXPECTED VALUES OF RANDOM VARIABLES

EXPECTED VALUES OF RANDOM VARIABLES Expected value is the

average value of a random variable over a large number of experiments. \

A random variable maps numeric values to each possible outcome in an

experiment.

We can calculate expected value for a discrete random variable — one in

which the number of potential outcomes is countable — by taking a sum
in which each term is a possible value of the random variable multiplied
by the probability of that outcome.
EXPECTED VALUES OF RANDOM VARIABLES

Since expected value spans the real numbers, it is typically

segmented into:

Negative valued numbers

Neutral valued numbers

Positive valued numbers

TOPICS
Random Variables and their Probability Distribution
Cumulative Distribution Functions
Expected Values of Random Variables
The Binomial Distribution
The Poisson Distribution
Binomial Experiments

A binomial experiment is a probability experiment that satisfies the

following conditions.

1. The experiment is repeated for a fixed number of trials, where each

trial is independent of other trials.
2. There are only two possible outcomes of interest for each trial. The
outcomes can be classified as a success (S) or as a failure (F).
3. The probability of a success P (S) is the same for each trial.
4. The random variable x counts the number of successful trials.
Notation for Binomial Experiments

Symbol Description

n The number of times a trial is repeated.

p = P (S) The probability of success in a single trial.

q = P (F) The probability of failure in a single trial. (q = 1 – p)

x The random variable represents a count of the

number of successes in n trials: x = 0, 1, 2, 3,
… , n.
 Binomial Experiments
Example:
Decide whether the experiment is a binomial experiment. If it is, specify the
values of n, p, and q, and list the possible values of the random variable x.
If it is not a binomial experiment, explain why.

• You randomly select a card from a deck of cards, and note if the card is
an Ace. You then put the card back and repeat this process 8 times.

This is a binomial experiment. Each of the 8 selections represent an

independent trial because the card is replaced before the next one is
drawn. There are only two possible outcomes: either the card is an Ace
or not.
4 1 1 12
n 8 p  q 1   x  0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
52 13 13 13
 Binomial Experiments

Example:
Decide whether the experiment is a binomial experiment. If it is, specify the
values of n, p, and q, and list the possible values of the random variable x.
If it is not a binomial experiment, explain why.

• You randomly select a card from a deck of cards, and note if the card is
an Ace. You then put the card back and repeat this process 8 times.

This is not a binomial experiment. While each trial (roll) is independent,

there are more than two possible outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.
 Binomial Probability Formula
In a binomial experiment, the probability of exactly x successes in n trials is
n!
P (x )  nC x p x q n  x  p x q n x .
(n  x )! x !
Example:
A bag contains 10 chips. 3 of the chips are red, 5 of the chips are white, and 2 of the chips are
blue. Three chips are selected, with replacement. Find the probability that you select exactly
one red chip.
3
p = the probability of selecting a red chip   0.3
10
q = 1 – p = 0.7
P (1)  3C 1(0.3)1(0.7)2
n=3
 3(0.3)(0.49)
x=1
 0.441
 Binomial Probability Distribution

Example:
A bag contains 10 chips. 3 of the chips are red, 5 of the chips are white, and 2 of the
chips are blue. Four chips are selected, with replacement. Create a probability
distribution for the number of red chips selected.
p = the probability of selecting a red chip 3
  0.3
10
q = 1 – p = 0.7 x P (x)
0 0.240 The binomial
n=4 1 0.412 probability formula
x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 2 0.265 is used to find each
3 0.076 probability.
4 0.008
 Finding Probabilities
Example:
The following probability distribution represents the probability of selecting 0, 1,
2, 3, or 4 red chips when 4 chips are selected.
x P (x)
0 0.24 a.) Find the probability of selecting no more than
1 0.412 3 red chips.
2 0.265 b.) Find the probability of selecting at least 1
3 0.076 red chip.
4 0.008

a.) P (no more than 3) = P (x  3) = P (0) + P (1) + P (2) + P (3)

= 0.24 + 0.412 + 0.265 + 0.076 = 0.993

b.) P (at least 1) = P (x  1) = 1 – P (0) = 1 – 0.24 = 0.76

 Mean, Variance and Standard Deviation

Population Parameters of a Binomial Distribution

Mean: μ  np
2
Variance: σ  n pq
Standard deviation: σ  n pq

Example:
One out of 5 students at a local college say that they skip breakfast in the morning. Find the
mean, variance and standard deviation if 10 students are randomly selected.
n  10 μ  np σ 2  n pq σ  n pq
1
p   0.2  10(0.2)  (10)(0.2)(0.8)  1.6
5
q  0.8 2  1.6  1.3
TOPICS
Random Variables and their Probability Distribution
Cumulative Distribution Functions
Expected Values of Random Variables
The Binomial Distribution
The Poisson Distribution
POISSON DISTRIBUTION
The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution of a random
variable x that satisfies the following conditions.

1. The experiment consists of counting the number of times an event, x,

occurs in a given interval. The interval can be an interval of time, area, or
volume.

2. The probability of the event occurring is the same for each interval.

3. The number of occurrences in one interval is independent of the number

of occurrences in other intervals.
POISSON DISTRIBUTION
The probability of exactly x occurrences in an interval is:

μ x e μ
P (x ) 
x!

where e  2.71818 and μ is the mean number of occurrences.

Poisson Distribution

Example:
The mean number of power outages in the city of Brunswick is 4 per year.
Find the probability that in a given year,
a.) there are exactly 3 outages,
b.) there are more than 3 outages.