Quality Control

Chapter 5- Fundamentals
of Probability

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 Learning Objectives
When you have completed this chapter you should be able to:
Define probability using the frequency definition.
Know the seven basic theorems of probability.
Able to apply three different approaches in determining the probability of an
event
Able to determine the probability using basic probability rules and theory
Able to solve the application problems using Bayes’ theorem
Able to determine the probability of an event using basic counting rules.
Identify the various discrete and continuous probability distributions.
Calculate the probability of non-conforming units occurring using the
Hypergeometric, Binomial and Poisson distributions.
 Know when to use the Hypergeometric, Binomial and Poisson
distributions.
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 Outline

1. Definition & Basic of Probability

2. Theorems of Probability

3. Counting of Events

4. Discrete Probability Distributions

5. Continuous Probability Distribution

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 Basic of Probability

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 Definition of Probability
 The measure of the Likelihood, chance, tendency, and trend that
the event will occur as a result of an experiment.
 The chance that something will happen.

Examples:
1. If a Nickel is tossed, the probability of a head is ½ and the
probability of the tail is ½.
2. When a die is tossed on the table, the probability of one spot is
1/6, the probability of two spots is 1/6,.....
3. We are drawing a card from a deck of cards. The probability of
a spade is 13/52.

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 Definition of Probability

Figure 5-1 Probability Distributions

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 Definition of Probability

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 Definition of Probability
definition based on a
frequency interpretation

For an infinite situation, where N = ∞ , the definition will

always lead to a probability of zero.

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 Definition of Probability
Example: A part is selected at random from a container of 50 parts
that are known to have 10 nonconforming units. The part is returned
to the container and a record of the number of trials and the number
nonconforming is maintained. After 90 trials, 16 nonconforming units
were recorded. What is the probability based on known outcomes
and on experimental outcomes?

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Three Different Approaches to Finding the Probability of Event

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 Example 5.1-Classical Probability
 Identify the possible outcomes, sample space and probability of the event for the
given experiment below.
1) An operator spunes an equal 4 sectors spinner with coloured red, yellow, green
and blue, respectively. What is the probability of landing on each colour?

2) Mr. Adam rolled a single virtual 6-sided dice. (i) What is the probability of rolling a
prime number? (ii) What is the probability of rolling not a prime number?

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 Example 5.1-Classical Probability
3) A box contains 6 red, 3 yellow, 5 green, and 8 blue balls. Rahman is
randomly drawn a single ball from the box, what is the probability
that he draws (i) a red ball? (ii) a green ball? (iii) a blue ball? (iv) a
yellow ball?

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 Example 5.2-Empirical Probability
1. Eight coins are tossed simultaneously and this procedure has been repeated
for 270 times. The table below shows the frequencies of the number of tails
are appearing. Calculate the probability of occurred tailed. (i) Equal to five.
(ii) Less than four. (iii) More than six.

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 Example 5.2-Empirical Probability
2. The table below illustrates the distribution marks obtained by 1200 students in a particular
examination. If one student is randomly selected, find the probability he marks is (i) Below 40. (ii)
Above 80. (iii) Between 40 and 100.

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 Example 5.3
Miss Laila rolled the two virtual 6-sided dice simultaneously. Find
the probability that she will obtain (i) the total sum of both dice is 6.
(ii) the one dice being twice the value of another dice. (iii) the total
sum of both dice is greater than 9.

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 Assumptions of Probability

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 Mutually Exclusive

Mutually exclusive means that the occurrence of one event makes the other event
impossible. Thus, if on one throw of a die a 3 occurred (event A ), then event B , say,
a 5, could not possibly occur.

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 Example 5.4
An experiment has five possible outcomes, namely A1, A2, A3, A4, and A5.
Given that these five possible outcomes are mutually exclusive, determine whether
the following assignments of probabilities are permissible and give a reason.

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 Reviews of Venn Diagram

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 Example 5.5

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The Basic Rules of Probability

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 Example 5.6
The probabilities that the supportability of a new cutting machine will be rated very
difficult, difficult, average, easy or very easy are 0.12, 0.17, 0.34, 0.29 or 0.08,
respectively. Find the probabilities that the supportability of this machine will be rated
(i) Difficult or very difficult. (ii) Neither very difficult nor very easy. (iii) Average,
difficult or very difficult. (iv) Average, easy or very easy.

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 Example 5.7
According to a surgical specialist, the probability of a patient surviving after a heart
transplant surgery is 0.55. If a patient survives after the surgery, the probability that
the body reject the transplant within a month is 0.20. What is the probability that the
patient is surviving and do not reject the transplant?

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 Theory of Probability

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 Theorems of Probability
One Event Two or More Event
Out or Two Out or Two
or More Events or More Events

Mutually Not Mutually Independent Dependent

Exclusive Exclusive
Theorem 6 Theorem 7
Theorem 3 Theorem 4

Figure 7-2 When to use Theorems 3,4,6 and 7

Figure 7-2 shows where theorems 3,4,6 & 7 are applicable. We see that if the probability of
only one event is desired, then Theorem 3 or 4 is used, depending on whether the event is
mutually exclusive or not. If the probability of two or more events is desired, then Theorem
6 or 7 is used, depending on whether the events are independent or not. Theorem 5 is not
included in the figure, because it pertains to a different concept.

Two events A and B are independent if the probability of each event remains the same
whetherBesterfield:
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 Theorems of Probability

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 Theorems of Probability

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 Theorems of Probability

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 Theorems of Probability

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 Theorems of Probability
Theorem 2: If the probability of finding an error on an
income tax return is 0.04, what is the probability of
finding an error-free or conforming return?
Theorem 3: If the 261 parts described in
Table 5-1are contained in a box.
1)What is the probability of selecting a
random part produced by supplier X or by
supplier Z?
2)What is the probability of selecting a
nonconforming part from supplier X or a
conforming part from supplier Z?
3)What is the probability that a randomly
selected part will be from supplier Z, a
nonconforming unit from supplier X, or a
conforming part from supplier Y?
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 Theorems of Probability
Theorem 4: If the 261 parts described in
Table 5-1 are contained in a box, what is the
probability that a randomly selected part will
be from supplier X or a nonconforming unit?
Theorem 5: A health inspector examines 3
products in a subgroup to determine if they
are acceptable. From past experience it is
known that the probability of finding no
nonconforming units in the sample of 3 is
0.990, the probability of 1 nonconforming
unit in the sample of 3 is 0.006, and the
probability of finding 2 nonconforming units
in the sample of 3 is 0.003. What is the
probability of finding 3 nonconforming units
in the sample of 3?

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 Theorems of Probability
Theorem 6: If the 261 parts described in Table 5-1are
contained in a box, what is the probability that 2 randomly
selected parts will be from supplier X and supplier Y?
Assume that the first part is returned to the box before the
second part is selected (called with replacement)

Theorem 7: Assume that in Example Problem of

Theorem 6, the first part was not returned to the
box before the second part was selected. What is
the probability?
What is the probability of choosing both parts from
supplier Z?

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 Theorems of Probability
If the 261 parts described in Table 5-
1 are contained in a box, what is the
probability that two randomly
selected parts (with replacement) will
have one conforming part from
supplier X and one conforming part
from supplier Y or supplier Z?

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 Example 5.8

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 Example 5.9

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 Example 5.9

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 Example 5.10

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 Example 5.10

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 Example 5.11
A Ministry of Health of a particular country conducted a study on
community health. The detailed results of the study obtained from
1000000 residents who are given a common AIDS test are
illustrated as table below. If one of the residents is selected, find
the following probabilities:

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 Example 5.12
Based on previous records, there are 8% of all adults over 50 have diabetes in a community.
If a public health service officer in this community correctly diagnoses 95% of all adults
over 50 with diabetes as having the disease, and incorrectly diagnoses 2% of all adults over
50 without diabetes as having the disease. Find the probability that
1)The community health service will diagnose an adult over 50 as having the disease.
2)A person over 50 diagnosed by the health service as having the disease actually has the
disease.

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 Example 5.12

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 Counting Rules & Probability

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 Counting Rules & Probability
1. Simple multiplication: If an event A can happen in any of a ways
or outcomes and, after it has occurred, another event B can
happened in b ways or outcomes, the number of ways that both
events can happen is ab.
2. Permutations: is an ordered arrangement of a set of objects.

n!
P 
r
n

( n  r )!
 The permutations of the word cup are cup, cpu, upc, ucp, puc, and
pcu. In this case there are 3 objects in the set and we arranged them
in groups of 3 to obtain 6 permutations. This is referred to as a
permutation of n objects taking r at a time, where n = 3 and r = 3.
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 Counting Rules & Probability
3.Combinations
If the way the objects are ordered is unimportant, then
we have a combination: n!
C 
n
r
r !( n  r )!

Example: The word “cup” has 6 permutations when

the 3 objects are taken 3 at a time. There is only one
combination, since the same three letters are in
different order.

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What’s is Difference? Permutation vs. Combination

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 Example 5.13
Given the following problem statements, identify whether the
problem involved permutation or combination and explain the reason.
Hence, solve the problem based on permutation or combination rules.

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 Example 5.14

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 Example 5.14

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 Example 5.15

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 Example 5.16

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 Discrete Probability Distributions
In this section, we give the derivation and formulas for the distribution models
which are used in control charts. When specific values such as the integers 0, 1, 2, 3
are used, then the probability distribution is discrete. Typical discrete probability
distributions are hypergeometric, binomial, and Poisson.

Hypergeometric Probability Distribution

1. Occurs when the population is finite and the
random sample is taken without replacement.
2. The formula is constructed of 3 combinations
(total, nonconforming, and conforming):
D N D
C C n d
P(d )  d
N
C n
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Discrete Probability Distributions
Hypergeometric Probability Distribution

D N D The numerator is the

C C n d
P(d )  d ways or outcomes of
N obtaining nonconforming
C n units times the ways or
outcomes of obtaining
conforming units, and the
denominator is the total
possible ways or
outcomes.
Some solutions require
an “or less” probability
others require “or
more” probability and
use the formulas

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Discrete Probability Distributions
Hypergeometric Probability Distribution

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Discrete Probability Distributions

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 Example 5-16
A lot of 9 thermostats located in a container has 3
nonconforming units. What is the probability of
drawing 1 nonconforming unit in a random sample
of 4? For instructional purposes, the following is a
graphical illustration of the problem. Similarly, P(0) = 0.119,P(2) = 0.357,and
P(3) = 0.048.
Because there are only 3 nonconforming
units in the lot, P(4) is impossible.

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Discrete Probability Distributions

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 Discrete Probability Distributions
Binomial Probability Distribution: Consider the following random
experiments and random variables:
1.Flip a coin 10 times. Let X = number of heads obtained.
2.A worn machine tool produces 1% defective parts. Let X = number of defective parts in the
next 25 parts produced.
3.Of all bits transmitted through a digital transmission channel, 10% are received in error. Let
X = the number of bits in error in the next five bits transmitted.
4.A multiple-choice test contains 10 questions, each with four choices, and you guess at each
question. Let X = the number of questions answered correctly.
5.In the next 20 births at a hospital, let X = the number of female births.
This implies that the outcome from one trial has no effect on the outcome to be obtained from
any other trial.
It is often reasonable to assume that the probability of a success in each trial is constant. In
the multiple-choice experiment, if the test taker has no knowledge of the material and just
guesses at each question, we might assume that the probability of a correct answer is 1/4
for each question.
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Discrete Probability Distributions

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 Discrete Probability Distributions
 Binomial Probability Distribution:
 The previous example motivates the following result

A table of cumulative binomial probabilities is provided in the end of these slides, and it can
simplify some calculations. For example, the binomial distribution in Example 3.13 has p =
0.1 and n = 4. A probability such as P(X = 2) can be calculated from the table as

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Discrete Probability Distributions

n 1n(n  1) n2 2
( p  q)  p  np q 
n n
p q  .........  qn
2
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 Discrete Probability Distributions
 Binomial Probability Distribution

n(n  1) n2 2 n 1
( p  q)  p  np q 
n
p q  .........  q
n n

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Discrete Probability Distributions

Figure 7-6 Distribution of the number of tails for an infinite

number of tosses of 11 coins. Because p = q, the distribution is
symmetrical regardless of the value of n ; however, when p ≠
q, the distribution is asymmetrical.
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 Discrete Probability Distributions
Binomial Probability Distribution cont’d
3. See Figure 7-6. Since p=q, the distribution is
symmetrical regardless of the value of n, however,
when p is not equal to q, the distribution is
asymmetrical.
4. In quality work p is the portion or fraction
nonconforming and is usually less than 0.15.
n! d n d
P(d )  p0 q0
d !(n  d )!
where P(d) = probability of d nonconforming units, n = number in the sample, d = number
nonconforming in the sample, p0 = proportion (fraction) nonconforming in the population & q 0
= proportion (fraction) conforming (1 − p0 ) in the population. Because the binomial is for the
infinite Besterfield:
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Discrete Probability Distributions
Binomial Probability Distribution cont’d

n!
P(d )  p0d q0nd
d !(n  d )!

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 Example 5-17

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 Example 5-18

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 Example 5-19

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 Example 5-20

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 Example 5-21
A random sample of 5 hinges is selected from a steady stream of
product from a punch press, and the proportion nonconforming is 0.10.
What is the probability of 1 nonconforming unit in the sample? What
is the probability of 1 or less? What is the probability of 2 or more?
Thus,

What is the probability of 2 or more

nonconforming units?

Or,

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 Example 5-21
FIGURE 8-7 Binomial
Distribution for Various
Sample Sizes When p =
0.10

FIGURE 8-8 Binomial

Distributions for Various
Sample Sizes When p =
0.05

Comparing the distribution for p = 0.10 and n = 30 in Figure 8-7 with the distribution of p =
0.05, n = 30 in Figure 8-8, it is noted that for the same value of n , the larger the value of the
proportion nonconforming
Besterfield: p , the greater the symmetry of the
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Discrete Probability Distributions
Binomial Probability Distribution cont’d.
5. As the sample size gets larger, the shape of the curve will
become symmetrical even though p is not equal to q.
6. The shape of the distribution is always a function of the
sample size, n, and the proportion nonconforming, p.
Change either of these values and a different distribution
results.
7. It requires that there be two and only two possible
outcomes (C, NC) and that the probability of each
outcome does not change.
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Discrete Probability Distributions
Binomial Probability Distribution cont’d.
7. The use of the binomial requires that the trials be
independent, that is, if a nonconforming unit occurs,
then the chance of the next one being nonconforming
neither increases nor decreases
8. It can be approximated by the Poisson when Po≤0.10
and nPo≤5.
9. The normal curve is an excellent approximation when
Po is close to 0.5 and n/N>̳ 0.10.

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 Discrete Probability Distributions
Poisson Probability Distribution: A third discrete probability
distribution is referred to as the Poisson probability distribution , named
after Simeon Poisson, who described it in 1837.

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Discrete Probability Distributions
Poisson Probability Distribution
1. It is applicable to many situations that involve observations per
unit of time; for example, the count of cars arriving at a
highway toll booth in 1-min intervals, the count of machine
breakdowns in 1 day.
2. It is also applicable to situations involving observations per unit
amount; for example, the count of weaving nonconformities in
1000 m2 of cloth, the count of nonconformities for the number
of service calls per week, and the count of rivet nonconformities
in a recreational vehicle.
3. In each of the preceding situations, there are many equal
opportunities for the occurrence of an event.
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Discrete Probability Distributions
Poisson Probability Distribution cont’d.
4. The Poisson is applicable when n is quite large and Po is
small.
5. When Poisson is used as an approximation to the binomial,
the symbol c has the same meaning as d has in the binomial
c
and hypergeometric formulas. ( np0 )  np0
P(c)  e
c!
where c = count, or number, of events of a given classification occurring in a
sample, such as count of nonconformities, cars, customers, or machine
breakdowns np0 = average count, or average number, of events of a given
classification occurring in a sample & e = 2.718281

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Discrete Probability Distributions
Poisson Probability Distribution cont’d.
6. When nPo gets larger, the distribution approaches
symmetry.
7. Table C in the Appendix.
8. The Poisson probability is the basis for attribute
control charts and for acceptance sampling.

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Discrete Probability Distributions
Poisson Probability Distribution cont’d.
9. It is used in other industrial situations, such
as accident frequencies, computer
simulation, operations research, and work
sampling.
10. Uniform (generate a random number table),
Geometric, and Negative binomial
(reliability studies for discrete data).

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Discrete Probability Distributions
Poisson Probability Distribution cont’d.
11. The Poisson can be easily calculated using
Table C.
12. Similarity among the hypergeometric,
binomial, and Poisson distributions can exist.
13. The mean and standard deviation of a
distribution are

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 Example 5-22

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 Example 5-23
The mean rate of a customer arrive at a bank is 11 per hour. Support
that that the number of arrivals per hour follows a Poisson
distribution. Based on the given information, find the probability that
more than 10 customers arrive in a given hour.

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 Example 5-24
In a manufacturing process, the defective rate of sheet metal is five defects per
10 square feet, which follows a Poisson distribution. What is the probability
that a 15-square-foot sheet of the metal will have at least six defects?

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 Example 5-25
The average number of kangaroo ships arriving on any one day at a jetty is
known to be 12. Find the probability that on a given day fewer than nine
trucks will arrive at these jetty?

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 Example 5-26
The average count of billing errors at a local bank per 8-h
shift is 1.0. What is the probability of 2 billing errors? The
probability of 1 or less? The probability of 2 or more?
From Table C for an np0 value of 1.0:
Values in parentheses in the table are
cumulative probabilities for obtaining
“or less” answers.

Besterfield: Quality Control, 8th ed.. © 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
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 The Relationship Between the Binomial
Distribution and the Poisson Distribution
The Poisson Distribution approximation to the Binomial Distribution.

Besterfield: Quality Control, 8th ed.. © 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
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 Example 5-27
The previous records show that the percentage of residents in a community infected
by a rare disease probability is 0.005 percent. By using the Poisson distribution
approximation to the binomial distribution, find the probability that among 10,000
residents in the community, (i) exactly two residents will be infected by the rare
disease. (ii) at most two residents will be infected by the rare disease.

Besterfield: Quality Control, 8th ed.. © 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
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 Example 5-28
The percentage of all new licensed drivers involved in at one accident is 3 percent
for any given year. By using the Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution,
find the probability that among 150 new licensed drivers, (i) only five new licensed
drivers involved in at least one accident for any given year. (ii) at most three new
licensed drivers involved in at least one accident for any given year.

Besterfield: Quality Control, 8th ed.. © 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
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 Continuous Probability Distributions

Normal Probability Distribution

1. When we have measurable data.
2. The normal curve is a continuous probability distribution.
3. Solutions to probability problems that involve continuous
data can be solved using the normal probability
distribution.
4. Under certain condition the normal probability distribution
will approximate the binomial probability distribution.

Besterfield: Quality Control, 8th ed.. © 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
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Continuous Probability Distributions

Normal Probability Distribution cont’d.

4. The Exponential probability distribution is used
in reliability studies when there is a constant
failure rate.
5. The Weibull distribution is used when the time to
failure is not constant.

Besterfield: Quality Control, 8th ed.. © 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
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 Continuous Probability Distributions
Normal Probability Distribution:
 Undoubtedly, the most widely used model for a continuous
measurement is a normal random variable. Whenever a random
experiment is replicated, the random variable that equals the
average (or total) result over the replicates tends to have a normal
distribution as the number of replicates becomes large.
 De Moivre presented this fundamental result, known as the central
limit theorem, in 1733. Unfortunately, his work was lost for some
time, and Gauss independently developed a normal distribution
nearly 100 years later. Although De Moivre was later credited with
the derivation, a normal distribution is also referred to as a
Gaussian distribution.
Besterfield: Quality Control, 8th ed.. © 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
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 Continuous Probability Distributions
Normal Probability Distribution:

The following equations

Probabilities summarize some useful results
associated concerning a normal distribution.
For any normal random variable,
with a
normal
distribution
Besterfield: Quality Control, 8th ed.. © 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
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 Continuous Probability Distributions
Normal Probability Distribution:

Creating a new
Besterfield: Qualityrandom variable by this transformation
Control, 8 ed..
th isPearson
© 2009 referred toUpper
Education, as Saddle
standardizing.
River, NJ 07458.
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Continuous Probability Distributions
Normal Probability Distribution:

Besterfield: Quality Control, 8th ed.. © 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All rights reserved
Continuous Probability Distributions
Normal Probability Distribution:

Besterfield: Quality Control, 8th ed.. © 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All rights reserved
Continuous Probability Distributions
Normal Probability Distribution:

Besterfield: Quality Control, 8th ed.. © 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All rights reserved
Continuous Probability Distributions
Normal Probability Distribution:

Besterfield: Quality Control, 8th ed.. © 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
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Continuous Probability Distributions
Normal Probability Distribution:

Besterfield: Quality Control, 8th ed.. © 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
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 Example 5-29
If the operating life of an electric mixer, which is normally
distributed, has a mean of 2200 h and standard deviation of
120 h, what is the probability that a single electric mixer will
fail to operate at 1900 h or less?
From Table A of the Appendix,
for a Z value of -2.5, area1 =
0.0062.Therefore, the probability
of an electric mixer failing is

“The percent of items less than

1900 h is 0.62%.”

Besterfield: Quality Control, 8th ed.. © 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
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Normal Approximation to the Binomial Distribution

Besterfield: Quality Control, 8th ed.. © 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
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Normal Approximation to the Poisson Distribution

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Besterfield: Quality Control, 8th ed.. © 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
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Besterfield: Quality Control, 8th ed.. © 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
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Besterfield: Quality Control, 8th ed.. © 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All rights reserved
Besterfield: Quality Control, 8th ed.. © 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All rights reserved
Besterfield: Quality Control, 8th ed.. © 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All rights reserved
Besterfield: Quality Control, 8th ed.. © 2009 Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458.
All rights reserved