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PROBABILITY
By
Dr. Koay Chen Yong
Email: [email protected]
Larson/Farber Ch. 3
3 Probability
Weather forecast
Business
Application of Probability
& Its Uses
Games Medicine
Sports
Larson/Farber Ch. 3
Section 3.1
Basic Concepts of
Probability
Larson/Farber Ch. 3
Important Terms
Probability experiment: Roll a die
An action through which counts, measurements or
responses are obtained
Sample space: {1 2 3 4 5 6}
The set of all possible outcomes
Event: { Die is even } = { 2 4 6 }
A subset of the sample space.
Outcome: {4}
The result of a single trial
Larson/Farber Ch. 3
Another Experiment
Probability Experiment: An action through
which counts, measurements, or responses are
obtained
Choose a car from production line
Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes
Event: A subset of the sample space.
Outcome: The result of a single trial
Larson/Farber Ch. 3
Types of Probability
Classical (equally probable outcomes)
Empirical
Probability blood pressure will decrease
after medication
Intuition
Probability the line will be busy
Larson/Farber Ch. 3
Tree Diagrams
Two dice are rolled.
Describe the
Start
sample space.
1st roll
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 12 3 4 5 61 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6
2nd roll
36 outcomes
Larson/Farber Ch. 3
Sample Space and Probabilities
Two dice are rolled and the sum is noted.
1,1 2,1 3,1 4,1 5,1 6,1
1,2 2,2 3,2 4,2 5,2 6,2
1,3 2,3 3,3 4,3 5,3 6,3
1,4 2,4 3,4 4,4 5,4 6,4
1,5 2,5 3,5 4,5 5,5 6,5
1,6 2,6 3,6 4,6 5,6 6,6
Find the probability the sum is 4. P(4) =3/36 = 1/12 = 0.083
Find the probability the sum is 11. P(11) = 2/36 = 1/18
= 0.056
Find the probability the sum is 4 or 11. P(4 or 11)= 5/36
Larson/Farber Ch. 3 = 0.139
Complementary Events
The complement of event E is event E´. E´ consists
of all the events in the sample space that are not in
event E.
E E´ P(E´) = 1 - P(E)
The day’s production consists of 12 cars, 5 of
which are defective. If one car is selected at
random, find the probability it is not defective.
Solution:
P(defective) = 5/12
P(not defective) = 1 - 5/12 = 7/12 = 0.583
Larson/Farber Ch. 3
Section 3.2
Independent Events
and the
Multiplication Rule
Larson/Farber Ch. 3
Independent Events
Two dice are rolled. Find the probability
the second die is a 4 given the first was a 4.
Original sample space: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Given the first die was a 4, the conditional
sample space is: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
The conditional probability, P(B|A) = 1/6
Note: For independent events,
P(A\B) = P(A) or P(B\A) = P(B)
Larson/Farber Ch. 3
Multiplication Rule
Two dice are rolled. Find the probability both are 4’s.
Let A = first die is a 4 and B = second die is a 4.
P(A) = 1/6 P(B) = 1/6 and P(B\A) = 1/6
P(A and B) = 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36 = 0.028
When two events A and B are independent, then
P (A and B) = P(A) x P(B)
Note: For independent events P(B) and P(B|A)
are the same.
Larson/Farber Ch. 3
Section 3.3
The Addition Rule
Larson/Farber Ch. 3
Compare “A and B” to “A or B”
The compound event “A and B” means that A
and B both occur in the same trial. Use the
multiplication rule to find P(A and B).
The compound event “A or B” means either A
can occur without B, B can occur without A or
both A and B can occur. Use the addition rule
to find P(A or B).
A B A B
A and B A or B
Larson/Farber Ch. 3
Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events, A and B, are mutually exclusive if
they cannot occur in the same trial.
A = a person is under 16 years old
B = a person is having driving license
A = a person was born in Kuala Lumpur
B = a person was born in Penang
A B Mutually exclusive
P(A and B) = 0
When event A occurs it excludes event B in the same trial.
Larson/Farber Ch. 3
Non-Mutually Exclusive Events
If two events can occur in the same trial, they are
non-mutually exclusive.
A = a person is under 25 years old
B = a person is a lawyer
A = a person was born in Alor Setar
B = a person watches football on TV
A and B
Non-mutually exclusive
A B
P(A and B) ≠ 0
Larson/Farber Ch. 3
The Addition Rule
The probability that one or the other of two events will
occur is: P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
A card is drawn from a deck. Find the
probability it is a king or it is red.
A = the card is a king B = the card is red.
P(A) = 4/52 and P(B) = 26/52
but P(A and B) = 2/52
P(A or B) = 4/52 + 26/52 – 2/52
= 28/52 = 0.538
Larson/Farber Ch. 3
The Addition Rule
A card is drawn from a deck. Find the
probability the card is a king or a 10.
Let A = the card is a king B = the card is a 10.
P(A) = 4/52 and P(B) = 4/52 and P(A ∩B) = 0
P(A or B) = 4/52 + 4/52 – 0 = 8/52 = 0.054
When events are mutually exclusive,
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Larson/Farber Ch. 3
Summary
1. For complementary events P(E') = 1 - P(E)
Subtract the probability of the event from one.
2. The probability both independent events A and B occur
P(A and B) = P (A ∩ B) = P(A) X P(B)
Use Multiplication Rule
3. Probability at least one of two events occur
P(A or B) = P(A U B)= P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)
Use Addition Rule
Add the simple probabilities, but to prevent double counting, don’t forget
to subtract the probability of both occurring.
4. If mutually exclusive, then P(A or B) = P(A U B)= P(A) +P(B)
as P(A ∩ B) = 0
Larson/Farber Ch. 3
Section 3.4
Using Tree Diagram
Larson/Farber Ch. 3
Fundamental Counting Principle
If one event can occur m ways and a second event can occur
n ways, the number of ways the two events can occur in
sequence is m • n. This rule can be extended for any number
of events occurring in a sequence.
If a meal consists of 2 choices of soup, 3 main dishes and 2 desserts,
how many different meals can be selected?
Dessert
Soup Main
Start
2 • 3 • 2 = 12 meals
Larson/Farber Ch. 3
Example:
The probabilities that two students, A and B will
E
pass the driving test are 1/3 and 2/5 respectively.
Calculate the probability that
(a) both A and B pass the driving test,
(b) either one of them passes the driving test,
(c) at least one of them passes the driving test.
B 2/5 pass Let A = A pass
pass A’ = A fail
1/3 3/5 fail B = B pass
A B’ = B fail
2/5 pass
fail
2/3 B
3/5 fail
Larson/Farber Ch. 3
Continue:
(a) P (both A and B pass) = P(A ∩ B)
= P(A) X P(B)
= 1/3 X 2/5
= 2/15
(b) P (either one of them passes)
= P(A ∩ B’) + P(A’ ∩ B)
= (P(A) X P(B’)) + (P(A’) X P(B))
= (1/3 X 3/5) + (2/3 X 2/5)
= 7/15
Larson/Farber Ch. 3
Continue:
(c) P(at least one of them passes the driving test)
= 1 – P(both of them fail)
= 1 – (P(A’) X P(B’))
= 1 – ( 2/3 x 3/5)
= 1 – 2/5
= 3/5
Larson/Farber Ch. 3
Group Activities
Have FUN with probabilities!
Larson/Farber Ch. 3
