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Binomial Distribution Powerpoint 1

The document discusses the binomial distribution. It defines the binomial distribution and the conditions that must be present for a binomial setting. These include a fixed number of independent trials with two possible outcomes (success or failure) where the probability of success is the same for each trial. It provides examples of calculating binomial probabilities using the mathematical formula and the calculator. It also discusses the difference between the binomial probability distribution function and cumulative distribution function.

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kailash
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799 views

Binomial Distribution Powerpoint 1

The document discusses the binomial distribution. It defines the binomial distribution and the conditions that must be present for a binomial setting. These include a fixed number of independent trials with two possible outcomes (success or failure) where the probability of success is the same for each trial. It provides examples of calculating binomial probabilities using the mathematical formula and the calculator. It also discusses the difference between the binomial probability distribution function and cumulative distribution function.

Uploaded by

kailash
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Lesson 6.

Discrete Distribution
Binomial
Knowledge Objectives
• Describe the conditions that need to be present to
have a binomial setting.
• Define a binomial distribution.
• Explain when it might be all right to assume a
binomial setting even though the independence
condition is not satisfied.
• Explain what is meant by the sampling distribution
of a count.
• State the mathematical expression that gives the
value of a binomial coefficient. Explain how to find
the value of that expression.
• State the mathematical expression used to calculate
the value of binomial probability.
Construction Objectives
• Evaluate a binomial probability by using the
mathematical formula for P(X = k).
• Explain the difference between binompdf(n, p, X) and
binomcdf(n, p, X).
• Use your calculator to help evaluate a binomial
probability.
• If X is B(n, p), find µx and x (that is, calculate the
mean and variance of a binomial distribution).
• Use a Normal approximation for a binomial
distribution to solve questions involving binomial
probability
Vocabulary
• Binomial Setting – random variable meets binomial conditions

• Trial – each repetition of an experiment

• Success – one assigned result of a binomial experiment

• Failure – the other result of a binomial experiment

• PDF – probability distribution function; assigns a probability to


each value of X

• CDF – cumulative (probability) distribution function; assigns


the sum of probabilities less than or equal to X

• Binomial Coefficient – combination of k success in n trials

• Factorial – n! is n  (n-1)  (n-2)  …  2  1


Criteria for a Binomial Setting
A random variable is said to be a binomial provided:

1. The experiment is performed a fixed number of times.


Each repetition is called a trial.

2. The trials are independent

3. For each trial there are two mutually exclusive (disjoint)


outcomes: success or failure

4. The probability of success is the same for each trial of


the experiment

Most important skill for using binomial distributions is the


ability to recognize situations to which they do and
don’t apply
Example 1a
Does this setting fit a binomial distribution? Explain

a)NFL kicker has made 80% of his field goal attempts in


the past. This season he attempts 20 field goals. The
attempts differ widely in distance, angle, wind and so
on.
Probably not binomial –
probability of success
would not be constant
Example 1b
Does this setting fit a binomial distribution? Explain

b) NBA player has made 80% of his foul shots in the


past. This season he takes 150 free throws. Basketball
free throws are always attempted from 15 ft away with
no interference from other players.

Probably binomial – probability of success would be constant


Binomial Notation
There are n independent trials of the experiment

Let p denote the probability of success and then


1 – p is the probability of failure

Let x denote the number of successes in n


independent trials of the experiment. So 0 ≤ x ≤ n

Determining probabilities:
With your calculator, go to the Distribution menu:
2nd DISTR A yields 2nd DISTR B yields
binompdf(n,p,x) binomcdf(n,p,x)

Some Books have binomial tables, ours does not


Binomial PDF vs CDF
• Abbreviation for binomial distribution is B(n,p)

• A binomial pdf function gives the probability of a


random variable equaling a particular value, i.e.,
P(x=2)

• A binomial cdf function gives the probability of a


random variable equaling that value or less , i.e.,
P(x ≤ 2)

• P(x ≤ 2) = P(x=0) + P(x=1) + P(x=2)


English Phrases
Math
English Phrases
Symbol
≥ At least No less than Greater than or equal to
> More than Greater than
< Fewer than Less than
≤ No more than At most Less than or equal to
= Exactly Equals Is
≠ Different from

P(x ≤ A) = cdf (A) P(x = A) = pdf (A)

P(X)
∑P(x) = 1
Cumulative
probability
or cdf P(x ≤ A) P(x > A) = 1 – P(x ≤ A)

Values of Discrete Variable, X X=A


Binomial PDF
The probability of obtaining x successes in n independent
trials of a binomial experiment, where the probability of
success is p, is given by:
 
P(x) = nCx px (1 – p)n-x, x = 0, 1, 2, 3, …, n

n Cx is also called a binomial coefficient and is defined by

n n!
combination of n items taken x at a time or = --------------
k k! (n – k)!
 
where n! is n  (n-1)  (n-2)  …  2  1
TI-83 Binomial Support

• For P(X = k) using the calculator: 2nd DISTR


binompdf(n,p,k)

• For P(k ≤ X) using the calculator: 2nd DISTR


binomcdf(n,p,k)

• For P(X ≥ k) use 1 – P(k < X) = 1 – P(k-1 ≤ X)


Example 2
In the “Pepsi Challenge” a random sample of
20 subjects are asked to try two unmarked
cups of pop (Pepsi and Coke) and choose
which one they prefer. If preference is based
solely on chance what is the probability that: P(d=P) = 0.5
  P(x) = nCx px(1-p)n-x
a) 6 will prefer Pepsi?
   P(x=6 [p=0.5, n=20]) = C (0.5)6(1- 0.5)20-6
20 6

= 20C6 (0.5)6(0.5)14 = 0.037

b) 12 will prefer Coke?


   P(x=12 [p=0.5, n=20]) = 20C12 (0.5)12(1- 0.5)20-12

= 20C12 (0.5)12(0.5)8 = 0.1201


Example 2 cont
P(d=P) = 0.5 P(x) = nCx px(1-p)n-x

c) at least 15 will prefer Pepsi?


   P(at least 15) = P(15) + P(16) + P(17) + P(18) + P(19) + P(20)
Use cumulative PDF on calculator

P(X ≥ 15) = 1 – P(X ≤ 14) = 1 – 0.9793 = 0.0207

d) at most 8 will prefer Coke?


P(at most 8) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + … + P(6) + P(7) + P(8)

Use cumulative PDF on calculator

P(X ≤ 8) = 0.2517
Example 3
A certain medical test is known to detect 90% of the people
who are afflicted with disease Y. If 15 people with the
disease are administered the test what is the probability
that the test will show that: P(x) = nCx px(1-p)n-x
  P(Y) = 0.9
a) all 15 have the disease?
   P(x=15 [p=0.9, n=15]) = 15C15 (0.9)15(1- 0.9)15-15

= 15C15 (0.9)15(0.1)0 = 0.20589

b) at least 13 people have the disease?


   P(at least 13) = P(13) + P(14) + P(15)

Use cumulative PDF on calculator

P(X ≥ 13) = 1 – P(X ≤ 12) = 1 – 0.1841 = 0.8159


Example 3 cont

P(Y) = 0.9 P(x) = nCx px(1-p)n-x

c) 8 have the disease?

P(x=8 [p=0.9, n=15]) = 15C8 (0.9)8(1- 0.9)15-8

= 15C8 (0.9)8(0.1)7 = 0.000277


Summary and Homework

• Summary
– Binomial experiments have 4 specific criteria that
must be met
• Fixed number of trials
• Independent
• Two mutually exclusive outcomes
• Probability of success is constant
– Calculator has pdf and cdf functions
• Homework
– pg

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