Kathmandu University

Department of Geomatics Engineering

GIS BASED LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY ASSESSMENT USING FREQENCY RATIO APPRROACH IN SINDHUPALCHOWK,NEPAL

Presenters Supervisors
Anil Basnet (03)
Aadarsha Dhakal (08) Mr Kushal Sharma
Cecil Ghimire (10) Mr Dinesh Bhatt
Riya Pokhrel (19)
Nischal Subedi (23)
Road Map of the Presentation

Problem
Introduction Statement

1 2

4 3
Study area Objectives

5 6 7
Project
Methodology Conclusion
Management
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Landslides in Nepal
•Landslide hazards mark at the top position
out of different hazards in Nepal.(Water
Resources Research and Development
Centre,2020)
•In period 1970–2019, 2488 fatal cases of
landslides have been recorded in Nepal,
•This caused 3212 recorded fatalities,
representing an average of about 36 deaths
per year in this period.
•Further, it is speculated that the occurrence
of fatal landslides in Nepal has increased
in recent years which can be seen in the
graph.

Department of Geomatics Engineering

Kathmandu University
Introduction
Landslides
• Catastrophic event covering a wide variety of mass movements and
processes involved in downward movement of masses of rock, earth or
debris under the influence of gravity (Hemasinghe et al., 2018)
• Result of various factors like geology, soil, terrain slope, land use, road
networks etc
• Can even be triggered by heavy rain, volcanic eruption, earthquake,
blasting and drilling

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Kathmandu University
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Why are Landslides so Frequent in
Nepal?
Rugged and fragile geophysical structure
Very high peaks and high angle of slopes
Complex geology,
Variable climatic conditions
Active tectonic processes
Unplanned settlement and development
activities
 Absence of effective water-channeling
mechanisms
Source:(Water Resources Research and Development Centre,2020)
Lack of alternatives for the local
population

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Kathmandu University
Landslide Susceptibility Assessment
• Measure of spatial probability of a landslide occurring in an area under
the local geo-environmental condition.
• Depicts the extent to which a terrain can be affected by future landslides.

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Frequency Ratio Method

• Based on the observed relationship, that exist between distribution of
landslide and each landslide-related casual factors.
• Ratio of the area where landslides occurred to the total study area
• Frequent and effective technique for landslide susceptibility mapping
• FR value of 1 is the average value.
 FR>1 : Greater susceptibility for landslides
 FR<1: Lesser susceptibility for landslides

Department of Geomatics Engineering

Kathmandu University
Problem Statement
• Landslides:
Often uncertain and difficult to predict its occurrence with high precision
Most studies primarily concerned with reporting of mishaps after the
disasters.
Geological complexity making field survey tedious and risky.

• Frequency ratio method for landslide susceptibility Assessment

Compares landslide inventory with landslide causative factors to
determine the distribution of landslide using GIS techniques.

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Kathmandu University
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Objectives
Primary Objective

• To develop landslide susceptibility map in GIS using frequency ratio

method.

Secondary Objectives

• To quantitatively evaluate the relationship between landslide occurrence

and landslide-related factors.
• To validate the model with the existing landslide locations.

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Scope of Work
• Inclusion of seven causative factors for landslide susceptibility
assessment in Sindhupalchowk, Nepal.
• Collection of data from secondary sources
• Integration of data in GIS environment
• Statistical modelling approach using Frequency Ratio method
• Accuracy assessments and Validation by AUC-ROC curve

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Kathmandu University
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Study Area

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Workflow

Fig: Workflow Chart

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Kathmandu University
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Criteria Identification

Landslide Causative
Factors

Road
Slope Aspect River Lithology Precipitation Land cover
network

Fig: Chart showing the landslide causative factors taken into account

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Kathmandu University
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Frequency Ratio Method
• 

Where,
= Number of landslide pixels in each factor class p
= Number of all pixels with landslide in the total study area.
= Number of pixel factor class p
= Number of pixels in study area.

Relative frequency(RF) of each class p

Prediction Rate of each factor p==

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Kathmandu University
Calculating Landslide Susceptibility
Index (LSI) 
•  LSI =

Where,
rating of each classes of the factor p
LSI =Landslide Susceptibility Index
= Prediction rate for each factor class p

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Validation and Accuracy Assessment
•  Assessment of success rate and prediction rate: AUC-ROC curve
• ROC curve: Plotted with TPR (True Positive Rate) against the FPR(False
Positive Rate)

where,
TN= true negative values
TP= true positive values
FP= false positive values
FN= false negative values

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Data Sources
The data will be collected from the secondary sources as follows:
Name Source Purpose

DEM USGS Earth Explorer Slope, aspect, curvature

Precipitation Department of Hydrology and Precipitation Map

Meteorology

 
Road networks ICIMOD Proximity to roads

River ICIMOD Distance from river

Geological data ICIMOD Lithology Map

Landcover ICIMOD Landcover Map

Landslide Inventory ICIMOD Landslide inventory map

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Kathmandu University
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Softwares to be used
S.NO Softwares Purpose

1 ArcGIS Preparing Thematic Maps and

Landslide Susceptibility Map

2. Excel Statistical evaluation and

calculation of Landslide
Susceptibility Index

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Kathmandu University
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Project Schedule
Month October November
  W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4

Topic

Project Selection      

Literature review      

Proposal defense      

Data collection                

Map preparation      

Report writing                

Final presentation                

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Expected Outcomes
• Landslide susceptibility map of Sindhupalchowk, Nepal.
• Thematic maps of each landslide causative factors.

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Kathmandu University
Conclusion
• Sindhupalchowk is one of the most landslide prone regions in Nepal.
• Prevention and reduction of damage by identifying areas vulnerable to
landslides
• Landslide susceptibility assessment in GIS by Frequency ratio method
• Map validation by using AUC-ROC curve

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Kathmandu University
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References
• Acharya, T., & Yang, I. (2015). Landslide hazard zonation using GIS: A
case study from Sindhupalchowk, Nepal. International Journal of
Applied Engineering Research, 10, 18385–18394.
• Chung, C.-J., & Fabbri, A. (2003). Validation of Spatial Prediction
Models for Landslide Hazard Mapping. Natural Hazards, 30, 451–472.
https://doi.org/10.1023/B:NHAZ.0000007172.62651.2b
• Cruden, D. M. (1991). Bulletin of the International Association of
Engineering Geology - Bulletin de l’Association Internationale de
Géologie de l’Ingénieur, 43(1), 27–29.
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02590167
• Cui, K., Lu, D., & Li, W. (2017). Comparison of landslide susceptibility
mapping based on statistical index, certainty factors, weights of evidence
and evidential belief function models. Geocarto International, 32(9),
935–955. https://doi.org/10.1080/10106049.2016.1195886

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References
• García-Rodríguez, M. J., Malpica, J. A., Benito, B., & Díaz, M. (2008).
Susceptibility assessment of earthquake-triggered landslides in El Salvador using
logistic regression. Geomorphology, 95(3), 172–191.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2007.06.001
• Hemasinghe, H., Rangali, R. S. S., Deshapriya, N. L., & Samarakoon, L. (2018).
Landslide susceptibility mapping using logistic regression model (a case study in
Badulla District, Sri Lanka). Procedia Engineering, 212, 1046–1053.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2018.01.135
• Khan, H., Shafique, M., Khan, M., Bacha, A., Shah, S., & Calligaris, C. (2018).
Landslide susceptibility assessment using Frequency Ratio, a case study of
northern Pakistan. The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Science,
22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrs.2018.03.004
• Meten, M., Bhandary, N., & Yatabe, R. (2015). Effect of Landslide Factor
Combinations on the Prediction Accuracy of Landslide Susceptibility Maps in
the Blue Nile Gorge of Central Ethiopia. Geoenvironmental Disasters, 2.
https://doi.org/10.1186/s40677-015-0016-7

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Kathmandu University
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Department of Geomatics Engineering

Kathmandu University