Chapter 4

Basic Probability

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 Objectives

The objectives for this chapter are:

 To understand basic probability concepts.

 To understand conditional probability.
 Use Bayes’ theorem to revise probabilities.
 Apply counting rules.

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Probability Helps Bridge Descriptive &
Inferential Statistics

 Probability principles are the foundation for:

 Probability distributions.
 Mathematical expectation.
 Binomial and Poisson distributions.

 For example, probability can be used on intent-

to-purchase survey responses and associated
follow-up responses to answer many purchase
behavior questions.

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The Sample Space Is The Collection Of
All Possible Outcomes Of A Variable

e.g. All 6 faces of a die:

e.g. All 52 cards of a bridge deck

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Each Possible Outcome Of A Variable
Is An Event
 Simple event:
 An event described by a single characteristic.
 e.g., A day in January from all days in 2018.
 Joint event:
 An event described by two or more characteristics.
 e.g. A day in January that is also a Wednesday from all
days in 2018.
 Complement of an event A (denoted A’):
 All events that are not part of event A.
 e.g., All days from 2018 that are not in January.

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 Basic Probability Concepts
 Probability – the numerical value representing the
chance, likelihood, or possibility that a certain
event will occur (always between 0 and 1).

 Impossible Event – an event that has no chance

of occurring (probability = 0).

 Certain Event – an event that is sure to occur

(probability = 1).

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 Mutually Exclusive Events

 Mutually exclusive events:

 Events that cannot occur simultaneously.

Example: Randomly choosing a day from 2018

A = day in January; B = day in February

 Events A and B are mutually exclusive.

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 Collectively Exhaustive Events
 Collectively exhaustive events:
 One of the events must occur.
 The set of events covers the entire sample space.
Example: Randomly choose a day from 2018.

A = Weekday; B = Weekend;
C = January; D = Spring;
 Events A, B, C and D are collectively exhaustive
(but not mutually exclusive – a weekday can be in
January or in Spring).
 Events A and B are collectively exhaustive and
also mutually exclusive.
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Three Approaches To Assessing
Probability Of An Event

1. a priori -- based on prior knowledge of the process

X number of ways in which the event occurs
probability of occurrence  
T total number of possible outcomes
Assuming
all
outcomes
2. empirical probability -- based on observed data
are number of ways in which the event occurs
equally probability of occurrence  total number of possible outcomes
likely
3. subjective probability

based on a combination of an individual’s past experience,

personal opinion, and analysis of a particular situation.

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 Example of a priori probability
When randomly selecting a day from the year 2018
what is the probability the day is in January?

X number of days in January

Probability of Day In January  
T total number of days in 2018

X 31 days in January 31
 
T 365 days in 2018 365

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 Example of empirical probability
Find the probability of selecting a male taking statistics
from the population described in the following table:

Taking Not Taking Total

Stats Stats
Male 84 145 229
Female 76 134 210
Total 160 279 439

number of males taking stats 84

Probability of male taking stats    0.191
total number of people 439

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 Subjective Probability Differs From
Person To Person
 What is the probability a new ad campaign is successful?
 A media development team assigns a 60% probability

of success to its new ad campaign.

 The chief media officer of the company is less

optimistic and assigns a 40% of success to the same

campaign.
 The assignment of a subjective probability is based on a
person’s experiences, opinions, and analysis of a
particular situation.
 Subjective probability is useful in situations when an
empirical or a priori probability cannot be computed.

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Summarizing Sample Spaces
Contingency Table -- M&R Survey Results.

Actually Purchased TV
Planned To Purchase TV Yes No Total
Yes 200 50 250
No 100 650 750
Total 300 700 1,000

Total Number
Of Sample
Space Outcomes.

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Summarizing Sample Spaces
Venn Diagram -- M&R Survey Results.

A = Planned to Purchase
A’ = Did not Plan To Purchase
B = Actually Purchased
B’ = Did not Purchase

Actually Purchased TV
Planned To Purchase TV Yes No Total
Yes 200 50 250
No 100 650 750
Total 300 700 1,000

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 Simple Probability: Definition & Computing
 Simple Probability refers to the probability of a simple
event.
 P(Planned to purchase)
 P(Actually purchased)
number of outcomes satisfying A
P( A ) 
total number of outcomes

P(Purchase) = 250 / 1000

Actually Purchased TV
Planned To Purchase TV Yes No Total
Yes 200 50 250
No 100 650 750
Total 300 700 1,000

P(Actually Purchased) = 300 / 1000

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Joint Probability: Definition & Computing
 Joint Probability refers to the probability of an
occurrence of two or more events (joint event).
 ex. P(Plan to Purchase and Purchase).
 ex. P(No Plan and Purchase).

number of outcomes satisfying A and B

P( A and B ) 
total number of outcomes

P(Plan to Purchase and Purchase) = 200 / 1000

Actually Purchased TV
Planned To Purchase TV Yes No Total
Yes 200 50 250
No 100 650 750
Total 300 700 1,000

P(No Plan and Purchase) = 50 / 1000

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Computing A Marginal Probability Via Joint
Probabilities
 Computing a marginal (or simple) probability:
P(A)  P(A and B1 )  P(A and B 2 )    P(A and Bk )

Where B1, B2, …, Bk are k mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive events.

P(Planned) = P(Yes and Yes) + P(Yes and No) =

200 / 1000 + 50 / 1000 = 250 / 1000

Actually Purchased TV
Planned To Purchase TV Yes No Total
Yes 200 50 250
No 100 650 750
Total 300 700 1,000

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 Marginal & Joint Probabilities In A
Contingency Table

Event
Event B1 B2 Total
A1 P(A1 and B1) P(A1 and B2) P(A1)
A2 P(A2 and B1) P(A2 and B2) P(A2)

Total P(B1) P(B2) 1

Joint Probabilities Marginal (Simple) Probabilities

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 Probability Summary So Far
 Probability is the numerical measure
of the likelihood that an event will 1 Certain

occur.
 The probability of any event must be
between 0 and 1, inclusively.
0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1 For any event A 0.5
 The sum of the probabilities of all
mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive events is 1.
P(A)  P(B)  P(C)  1
0 Impossible
If A, B, and C are mutually exclusive and
collectively exhaustive

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 General Addition Rule

General Addition Rule:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

If A and B are mutually exclusive, then

P(A and B) = 0, so the rule can be simplified:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

For mutually exclusive events A and B

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 General Addition Rule Example

P(Planned or Purchased) =
P(Planned) + P(Purchased) – P(Planned and Purchased) =
250 / 1000 + 300 / 1000 – 200 / 1000 = 350 / 1000

Actually Purchased TV
Planned To Purchase TV Yes No Total
Yes 200 50 250
No 100 650 750
Total 300 700 1,000

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 Computing Conditional
Probabilities
 A conditional probability is the probability of one
event, given that another event has occurred:
P(A and B) The conditional
P(A | B)  probability of A given
P(B) that B has occurred.

P(A and B) The conditional

P(B | A)  probability of B given
P(A) that A has occurred.

Where P(A and B) = joint probability of A and B

P(A) = marginal or simple probability of A
P(B) = marginal or simple probability of B
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 Conditional Probability Example
P(Purchased | Planned) = P(Purchased and Planned) / P(Planned) =

(200 / 1000) / (250 / 1000) = 200 / 250

Actually Purchased TV
Planned To Purchase TV Yes No Total
Yes 200 50 250
No 100 650 750
Total 300 700 1,000

Since Planned is given we only need to consider the top row of

the table.

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 A Decision Tree Is An Alternative To A
Contingency Table
200
Given Planned e d 250 P(A and B) = 200/1000
r c h as
or Not Planned: Pu
0 0 0 No
1
2 50/ Purc
h ase 50 P(A and B’) = 50/1000
n ned
Pla 250
All Conditional
House- Probabilities
holds 100
Did
Pla Not 750 P(A’ and B) = 100/1000
n e d
750 r c h as
/10
0 Pu
0
No
Purc
h ase 650 P(A’ and B’) = 650/1000
750
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Independent Events
 Two events are independent if and
only if:

P(A | B)  P(A)
 Events A and B are independent when the
probability of one event is not affected by the
fact that the other event has occurred.

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 Are The Events Planned and
Purchased Independent?
Does P(Purchased | Planned) = P(Purchased)?

P(Purchased | Planned) = 200 / 250 = 0.8.

P(Purchased) = 700 / 1000 = 0.7.

Since these two probabilities are not equal, these two events are
dependent.

Actually Purchased TV
Planned To Purchase TV Yes No Total
Yes 200 50 250
No 100 650 750
Total 300 700 1,000

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Multiplication Rules For Two Events
The General Multiplication Rule

P(A|B)  P(A and B) / P(B)

Solving for P(A and B)

P(A and B)= P(A|B) P(B)

Note: If A and B are independent, then P(A | B)  P(A)

and the multiplication rule simplifies to:

P(A and B)  P(A)P(B)

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Marginal Probability Using The General
Multiplication Rule
 Marginal probability for event A:
P(A)  P(A | B1 ) P(B1 )  P(A | B 2 ) P(B 2 )    P(A | Bk ) P(Bk )

 Where B1, B2, …, Bk are k mutually exclusive and

collectively exhaustive events.
Let A = Planned, B1 = Purchase, & B2 = No Purchase

P(A) = P(A|B1)P(B1) + P(A|B2)P(B2) =

(200/300)(300/1000) + (50/700)(700/1000) = 0.25

Actually Purchased TV
Planned To Purchase TV Yes No Total
Yes 200 50 250
No 100 650 750
Total 300 700 1,000
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 Ethical Issues & Probability
 Ethical issues can arise when any statements
related to probability are presented to the
public.

 Unintended misinterpretations can occur with

people who are not comfortable with numerical
concepts.

 Advertising quoting probabilities can also be

intentionally misleading.

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 Bayes’ Theorem

 Bayes’ Theorem is used to revise previously

calculated probabilities based on new
information.

 Developed by Thomas Bayes in the 18th

Century.

 It is an extension of conditional probability.

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 Bayes’ Theorem

P(A | B i )P(B i )
P(B i | A) 
P(A | B 1 )P(B 1 )  P(A | B 2 )P(B 2 )      P(A | B k )P(B k )

 where:
Bi = ith event of k mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive events
A = new event that might impact P(Bi)

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 Bayes’ Theorem Example
 A drilling company has estimated a 40%
chance of striking oil for their new well.
 A detailed test has been scheduled for more
information. Historically, 60% of successful
wells have had detailed tests, and 20% of
unsuccessful wells have had detailed tests.
 Given that this well has been scheduled for a
detailed test, what is the probability
that the well will be successful?

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 Bayes’ Theorem Example
(continued)

 Let S = successful well

U = unsuccessful well
 P(S) = 0.4 , P(U) = 0.6 (prior probabilities)
 Define the detailed test event as D
 Conditional probabilities:
P(D|S) = 0.6 P(D|U) = 0.2
 Goal is to find P(S|D)

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 Bayes’ Theorem Example
(continued)

Apply Bayes’ Theorem:

P(D | S)P(S)
P(S | D) 
P(D | S)P(S)  P(D | U)P(U)
(0.6)(0.4)

(0.6)(0.4)  (0.2)(0.6)
0.24
  0.667
0.24  0.12

So the revised probability of success, given that this well

has been scheduled for a detailed test, is 0.667
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 Bayes’ Theorem Example
(continued)

 Given the detailed test, the revised probability

of a successful well has risen to 0.667 from
the original estimate of 0.4

Prior Conditional Joint Revised

Event Prob.
Prob. Prob. Prob.
S (successful) 0.4 0.6 (0.4)(0.6) = 0.24 0.24/0.36 = 0.667
U (unsuccessful) 0.6 0.2 (0.6)(0.2) = 0.12 0.12/0.36 = 0.333

Sum = 0.36

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 Counting Rules Are Often Useful
In Computing Probabilities

 In many cases, there are a large number of

possible outcomes.

 Counting rules can be used in these cases

to help compute probabilities.

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 Counting Rules
 Rules for counting the number of possible
outcomes
 Counting Rule 1:
 If any one of k different mutually exclusive and
collectively exhaustive events can occur on each of
n trials, the number of possible outcomes is equal to

kn

 Example
 If you roll a fair die 3 times then there are 63 = 216
possible outcomes
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 Counting Rules (continued)
 Counting Rule 2:
 If there are k1 events on the first trial, k2 events on
the second trial, … and kn events on the nth trial, the
number of possible outcomes is
(k1)(k2)…(kn)

 Example:
 You want to go to a park, eat at a restaurant, and
see a movie. There are 3 parks, 4 restaurants,
and 6 movie choices. How many different
possible combinations are there?
 Answer: (3)(4)(6) = 72 different possibilities
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 Counting Rules
(continued)
 Counting Rule 3:
 The number of ways that n items can be arranged in
order is

n! = (n)(n – 1)…(1)

 Example:
 You have five books to put on a bookshelf. How
many different ways can these books be placed
on the shelf?

 Answer: 5! = (5)(4)(3)(2)(1) = 120 different

possibilities.
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 Counting Rules (continued)
 Counting Rule 4:
 Permutations: The number of ways of arranging X objects
selected from n objects in order is

n!
n Px 
(n  X)!
 Example:
 You have five books and are going to put three on a bookshelf.
How many different ways can the books be ordered on the
bookshelf? n! 5! 120
n Px     60
(n  X)! (5  3)! 2
 Answer: different possibilities.

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 Counting Rules
(continued)
 Counting Rule 5:
 Combinations: The number of ways of selecting X
objects from n objects, irrespective of order, is
n!
n Cx 
X!(n  X)!

 Example:
 You have five books and are going to select three are to
read. How many different combinations are there, ignoring
the order in whichn!they are5!selected?
120
n Cx     10
X!(n  X)! 3! (5  3)! (6)(2)

 Answer: different possibilities

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 Chapter Summary

In this chapter we covered:

 Using basic probability concepts.

 Using conditional probability.
 Using Bayes’ theorem to revise probabilities.
 Using counting rules.

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