LECTURE 4: SIMULATION OF A QUEUING

PROBLEM

BY:
LIONEL BELL NGUENANG
LECTURER
DEPARTEMENT OF OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
Learning Objectives
• Understand the three types of simulation models
• Understand the five steps of conducting a Monte Carlo
simulation
• Analyze a simulation model as applied to Queuing Problems
Introduction
• Process of designing a model of a real
system and conducting experiments with
the model for the purpose of
understanding the behavior for the
operation of the system
• A duplication of the original system
• To understand the implementation of the
real system
• It is used by various types of organizations:
 For inventory management
 Financial decision
 Queuing & Maintenance PB
 Different business situations
 Emergency
Simulation Models

• Monte Carlo Simulation: situations involving probability or chance

• Operational gaming refers to simulation involving two or more competing
players
– Best examples are military games and business games
– Allow the testing of management and decision-making skills in
hypothetical situations of conflict
• Systems simulation similar to business gaming
• Allows users to test various managerial policies and decisions to evaluate their
effect on the operating environment
• Allows “what-if?” questions to test the effects of various policies
Verification and Validation
• It is important that a simulation model be checked to see that it is
working properly and providing good representation of the real-
world situation
• Verification involves determining that the computer model is
internally consistent and following the logic of the conceptual
model
– Answers the question “Did we build the model right?”
• Validation compares a simulation model to the real system it
represents to make sure it is accurate
– Answers the question “Did we build the right model?”
Monte Carlo Simulation
• When systems contain elements that exhibit chance in their behavior, the Monte Carlo
method of simulation can be applied
• The basis of the Monte Carlo simulation is experimentation on the probabilistic
elements through random sampling
– Some examples are
1. Inventory demand
2. Lead time for inventory
3. Times between machine breakdowns
4. Times between arrivals
5. Service times
6. Times to complete project activities
7. Number of employees absent
 Monte Carlo Simulation
• To understand this technique, we should refer to these five steps:
1. Establishing a probability distribution for important input
variables
2. Building a cumulative probability distribution for each variable
in Step 1
3. Establishing an interval of random numbers for each variable
4. Generating random numbers
5. Simulating series of trials
 Simulation of a Queuing Problem

• Analysis of waiting line problems has been an important area of

simulation application
• The assumptions of queuing models are quite restrictive
• Sometimes simulation is the only approach available
• Each queuing system is a typical problem of discrete event system,
and the computer simulation becomes a quite effective way for
solving the queuing problems and analyzing its performances in a
feasible manner
 Simulation of a Queuing Problem
• A manager of a Bank is attempting to determine how many tellers are
needed at the drive-in window during peak times. As a general policy,
the manager wishes to offer service such that customer waiting time
does not exceed 2 minutes. Giving the existing service level, as shown in
the data below, Does the drive –in window meet this specification?
Assuming service starts at 9:00 am.
Table 1: Service Time Table 2: Customer arrivals
Service time (min) Probability Time between successive Probability
customer arrivals (min)
0 0
0 0.10
1 0.25
1 0.35
2 0.20 2 0.25
3 0.40 3 0.15
4 0.15
4 0.10
5 0.05
 Simulation of a Queuing Problem

• Probability distribution for the given data

Probability distribution for customer arrival
Probability distribution for service time
Time between P Cumulative Random number
Service Probability Cumulative Random number
arrival Probability interval
interval
time Probability
0 0.1 0.1 00 – 10
0 0 0 00 - 00
1 0.35 0.45 11 – 45
1 0.25 0.25 01-25
2 0.25 0.70 46 – 70
2 0.2 0.45 26 - 45
3 0.15 0.85 71 – 85
3 0.4 0.85 46 - 85
4 0.1 0.95 86 – 95
4 0.15 1 86 - 100
5 0.05 1 96 - 100
 Simulation of 13 customers for the system
customer Random Arrival Time of Random Service Start of End of Waiting Idle
number Interval arrival Number time service service time time
1 50 2 9h02 52 3 9h02 9h05 0 2
2 28 1 9h03 37 2 9h05 9h07 2 0
3 68 2 9h05 82 3 9h07 9h10 2 0
4 36 1 9h06 69 3 9h10 9h13 4 0
5 90 4 9h10 98 4 9h13 9h17 3 0
6 62 2 9h12 96 4 9h17 9h21 5 0
7 27 1 9h13 33 2 9h21 9h23 8 0
8 50 2 9h15 50 3 9h23 9h26 8 0
9 18 1 9h16 88 4 9h26 9h30 10 0
10 36 1 9h17 90 4 9h30 9h34 13 0
11 61 2 9h19 50 3 9h34 9h37 15 0
12 21 1 9h20 27 2 9h37 9h39 17 0
13 46 2 9h22 45 2 9h39 9h41 17 0

Average waiting time per customer = = 8 minutes Σ =104

 HOMEWORK
• 13.27 Pg.512
• 13.32 Pg.514