r 3

t e
p
Cha Collecting
Information and
Forecasting Demand
 Discussion Outlines
1. components of a modern marketing information
system
2. useful internal records for such a system
3. makes up a marketing intelligence system
4. some influential macroeconomic developments
5. How companies can measure accurately and
forecast demand

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 Collecting Information

Customers

External Factors
Competitors
The company’s marketing
information system should be a
mixture of what managers think
they need, what they really need,
and what is economically feasible.
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 Marketing Information System Consists
People
Procedures

to gather,
sort,
analyze,
evaluate,
and distribute information
that is needed,
timely and accurate.
Equipment
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Marketing Information System
Internal Records ( results data)

Marketing Research

Insight

Marketing Intelligence
(happening data)
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 Internal Records

Databases / Data Mining purchase

history, product preferences, and can even
contain demographic and psychographic
information on customers.
Order-to-Payment Cycle
Includes invoices and shipping
documents. Customers prefer firms
that can get orders processed
quickly and accurately.

Sales Information Systems

provide managers with up-to-date information on the
current sales of individual products.
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 Marketing Intelligence
News and Trade Publications

Meet with customers,

suppliers, distributors,
and other managers
Monitor social
media sites
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 Improving Marketing Intelligence
Sales Force Establish industry network

External Experts Customer Advisory Panel

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Marketing Intelligence & the Internet

Independent Online Forums

Distributor or sales agents feedback sites

Customer review and expert opinion

sites

Customer complaint sites

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Analyzing the Macro environment

Needs and Trends

Unpredictable, short-lived, Offer a view of the
and without social, future due to their
economic, and political momentum and
significance. Fads are durability.
measured in months,
rather than years.

Fad Trend Megatrend

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Major Environmental Forces

Demographics Economic

Technological

Natural Political-Legal
Sociocultural
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 The Demographics Environment
The main one marketers monitor is
 Worldwide Population growth.
 a growing population does not mean growing markets
unless there is sufficient purchasing power.
 Population age mix.
six age groups: Preschool children, school-age children, teens, young
adult age 20 – 40, middle-aged adults 40 to 65, and older adults 65 and
older.
 Ethnic markets. Ethic and racial diversity varies across countries.
Ethnic groups have certain specific wants and buying habits. Marketers
must understand segment in term of ethic for the market to be targeted.
 Educational groups. In any society falls into five educational
groups: 1. Illiterates 2.High school dropouts, 3. High school degrees, 4.
College degrees, and 5. Professional degrees.
 Household patterns. Two types of household patterns, traditional
household and nontraditional household. Classifications: 1.Single live-
alones, 2. Single-parent families, 3. Childless married couples, and 4.
empty-nesters.
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 The World as a Village
If the world were a village of 100 people:

61 – Asian (20 Chinese, 17 Indian)

18 – Unable to read (33 have cell phones)
18 – Under 10 years of age (11 over 60 years old)
18 – Cars in the village
63 – Inadequate sanitation
67 – Non-Christian
30 – Unemployed or underemployed
53 – Live on less than $2 a day
26 – Smoke
14 – Obese
01 – Have AIDS

Source: David J. Smith and Shelagh Armstrong, If the World Were a Village: A
Book About the World’s People, 2 nd ed. (Tonawanda, NY: Kids Can Press,
2002)
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Economic Environment

Consumer
Psychology

Income
Distribution
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 Economic Environment
• Consumer Psychology
When economy under recession it will affect consumers financial situations.
“Mindless” spending would be out; willingness to comparison shop, haggle, and
use discounts would become the norm. Other maintained tighter spending
reflected a mere economic constraint and not a fundamental behavioral change.
Therefore, consumes’ aspirations would stay the same, and spending would
resume when the economy improves.

Income Distribution
1. Subsistence economies (Few market opportunities)
2.Raw-material-exporting economies. (Good markets for equipment, tools, suppliers, and
luxury goods for the rich.
3.Industrializing economies. A new rich class and a growing middle class demand new types
of goods,
4. Industrial economies. Rich markets for all sorts of goods. .

1 .Very low incomes , 2. Mostly low incomes, 3. Very low, very high incomes, 4. Low,
medium, high incomes, 5. Mostly medium incomes

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 Sociocultural
Environment

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Others
Natural Environment
Environmental Regulations

Technological
Environment
Accelerated pace of change
Unlimited opportunities

R&D Spending

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Forecasting and Demand Measurement

Market
- Size
- Growth
- Profit potential

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Market Types
Potential Market

Available Market

Target Market

Penetrated Market

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 . 2
e 3
u r
F ig
Ninety Types of Demand Measurement

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 Demand Measurement
total volume that would be bought by a defined customer group,
Market Demand in a defined geographical area, in a defined time period, in a
defined marketing environment, under a defined marketing
program

company’s estimated share of

market demand at alternative levels
of company marketing efforts in a
given time period.

Company Demand
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 Estimating Current Demand
Area market potential
Total market potential
Average
Potential Average
X purchase X
Buyers price
quantity

Chain-ratio method
Average percentage of income spent on:

Demand Expected % of
Alcoholic
for new X Population X Food X Beverages X X spending on
beverages
light beer Light beer

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 Estimating Future Demand

Sales Force Opinions

Buyer’s Intentions Forecasting

Past Sales Analysis

Expert Opinions
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