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Covid 19 Crisis India

This is a brief ppt that aims at addressing the issue - COVID 19 CRISIS IN INDIA: ECONOMIC IMPACT AND THE RECOVERY

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Arnab Kumar Nath
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
30 views12 pages

Covid 19 Crisis India

This is a brief ppt that aims at addressing the issue - COVID 19 CRISIS IN INDIA: ECONOMIC IMPACT AND THE RECOVERY

Uploaded by

Arnab Kumar Nath
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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1

COVID 19 CRISIS IN INDIA: ECONOMIC


IMPACT AND THE RECOVERY
COVID 19 CRISIS IN INDIA: ECONOMIC IMPACT AND THE RECOVERY 2

SYNOPSIS

 Introduction & Effect of COVID – 19

 The difference between different economic crisis

 Impact of Covid -19 on Indian economy

 Re-opening of the economy - India

 Effectiveness of traditional monetary and fiscal policies

 Geopolitical consequences of Covid – 19 in India

 Predictions of the Indian economy

 Conclusion
3

Introduction:
• The COVID 19 pandemic caused mass disruptions in the economy compared to previous crises due to its far - reaching Socio -
Economic impacts

• Even though the COVID 19 pandemic has caused huge setbacks to the Indian economy and while the growth of the economy may
strain relationships with China being its trading neighbour, export opportunities, domestic demand potential, and relevance of India as
an alternative investment market are going to work in favour of India

COVID - 19 Pandemic
In India, the first case was recorded in 2019
march 2020 and unfortunately it got
multiplied infinitely with the big impact in
normal life

Second wave of COVID - 19 Pandemic


2020 We were trying to get back into normal life
but we were house arrested by this
pandemic
4

Effects of COVID - 19:

Loss of human lives and


Supply chain
disruption of economic activities
Since it was a spreadable and tangible Disruption in supplies, unemployment and
disease, capable of making a life at risk low consumption demand

Decline in GDP Social problems


During 2020 - 2021, there is a reduction in Uncertainty in economy, job cuts,
world GDP growth rate by 3.3% social isolation etc..
5

History of severe
crisis:

• The world has experienced two major economic disruptions since the great depression before COVID - 19.
• AEC - Asian Economical / Financial crisis
• GFC - Global Financial crisis

# Asian financial crisis Global financial crisis COVID - 19

Year 1997 2008 - 2009 2019

Housing sector and share


Problematic area Housing sector related Health related
markets

Increase in FDI flow Grating loans at low


Effect Unemployment
declining interest

Risk Panic at market level Panic at market level Panic on survival


Nature Endogenous Endogenous Exogenous
6

Impacts of COVID - 19:


• India is the fifth-largest economy by nominal GDP and the third-largest economy by PPP. The COVID pandemic has brutally affected the Indian
economy.

GDP Growth Micro, Small and Medium enterprises


• FY 2019 - 20, 4% Medium term impact 46% decline in FY 20 which affects the
• FY 2020 - 21, 7.3% (Lower since employment, supply and consumption
independence) demand

Manufacturing and service sectors Unemployment, job and salary cuts


Mass supply challenges and demand in all Increased unemployment rate in FY 21 is
sectors like tourism, hospitality, aviation and real 7.1%
estate etc..

Poverty Revenues
• Per capita consumption fell by 20% Non tax revenues and non debt capital
• Individual income dropped by 40% receipts dropped by 15%

Get back the agreements


Increased inflation
Foreign investors withdrew the significant
amount from Indian market
7

Impacts of COVID - 19:


India is the fifth-largest economy by nominal GDP and the third-largest economy by PPP. The COVID pandemic has brutally affected the Indian economy.

Long term
impact
Consumption demand Investment in health care
No of poor increased by 2 times and middle Huge benefit in future
class decreased significantly

Withdraw of FDI Global inequality


This is decreasing over last 30 years which
571 million USD from India might slow down
increases the inequality
the economy growth in long run
8

Monetary and fiscal


policies:

• Monetary and fiscal policy are macroeconomic tools used to manage or

stimulate the economy. This policy together has great influence over a nation's

economy, its businesses, and its consumers.

• Medical impact of the Pandemic was handled well in India , But financial cries

are not. Even many fiscal and monitory amendments( Aatma Nirbhar

Bharat Package (ANBP) are made , those are not supported much to

MSME’s (Micro, Small, Medium enterprises ). So along with this

policy some additional improvement required in future if the same crisis arise.
Recovery and control 9

measures:

This is a matter of both life and death and prosperity or poverty. A deep recession is likely to cause widespread hardship, including increased

mortality rates for reasons other than the virus. We must, therefore, find smart strategies for re-opening businesses while minimizing health

risks. • Vaccination by category wise, age wise

• Insisted some protocols to be followed strictly for inter movement of peoples

• Negative test report submission for long and air travel

• Huge people movement work places to be worked with 50% employees

• Strengthening the local health system

• A list of permissible activities for industries

• Oxygen plant operationalization setup across the country

• Reinforcing the principle of locking down only the containment zones, not entire districts

• Digital app facilities for Strengthening coordination and communication at district level
team

• Promote work from culture for software countries

• Planning for contingencies plan like different task forces

• Phased-in Re-opening by Age Group


10
Geopolitical consequences of Covid – 19 in India

Need to add
11

Predictions:

o i t t e ’s
De l o o k
• With the changing state of the world, it ’s o u t l
I ndi a
o i t t e ’s
may be hard to predict the economy of De l o o k
c ut s ’s o u t l
d b a n k I nd i a
Wor l m i c
India. e c o n o
’s
India f o re c a s t
gro w t h
• Increase in fuel prices will affect the

cost of food and other living expenses

which will bite into the spending habits 7.1 - 7.6% 6.0 - 6.7%
FY 22 - 23 FY 23 - 24
on those in India as there will be an
7.5%
increased cost both from the increased FY 23

cost of oil prices, especially as demand

increases for energy in the

infrastructure and industrial sectors


12

Conclusion

The COVID 19 Pandemic was unique in its effects on the global economy through changing of supply chains and
spending habits, it created similar effects in inflation and less consumer confidence in the market. When looking
at the response of India to the pandemic it was found that India had a robust approach to the pandemic through
its usage of monetary policies, and its Make in India Policy. The purchasing manager’s index (PMI) numbers
attained 11 years high in May 2022. There is a significant rise in capital spending by the government. However,
the issues of inflation, income equality, and access to medicine will continue to expand in the country. In
addition, the concern of the push for India to become a manufacturing centre for the world might create
strained relationships with China which will become its direct competitor. Even considering all of this, India is
expected to command as the largest growing economy with 6%-7% GDP growth YOY over the next 5 years

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