Chapter
Confidence Intervals
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Chapter Outline
• 6.1 Confidence Intervals for the Mean ( Known)
• 6.2 Confidence Intervals for the Mean ( Unknown)
• 6.3 Confidence Intervals for Population Proportions
• 6.4 Confidence Intervals for Variance and Standard
Deviation
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Section 6.3
Confidence Intervals for Population
Proportions
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Section 6.3 Objectives
• How to find a point estimate for the population
proportion
• How to construct and interpret confidence intervals
for a population proportion
• How to determine the minimum sample size required
when estimating a population proportion
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Population Proportion
Population Proportion, p
• The probability of success in a single trial of a
binomial experiment is p
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Point Estimate for p
The point estimate for p, the population proportion of
successes, is given by the proportion of successes in a
sample and is denoted by
= Sample proportion
where x is the number of successes in the sample and n
is the sample size. The point estimate for the population
proportion of failures is = 1 – . The symbols and are
read as “p hat” and “q hat.”
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Example: Point Estimate for p
In a survey of 1550 U.S. adults, 1054 said that they use
the social media website Facebook. Find a point
estimate for the population proportion of U.S. adults
who use Facebook. (Adapted from Pew Research
Center)
Solution:
The number of successes is the number of adults who
use Facebook, so x = 1054. The sample size is n = 1550.
So, the sample proportion is
= = = 0.68 = 68%
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Confidence Intervals for a
Population Proportion
A c-confidence interval for the population proportion p
pq
ˆˆ
pˆ E p pˆ E where E zc
n
• The probability that the confidence interval contains p is
c, assuming that the estimation process is repeated a
large number of times.
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Constructing a Confidence Interval
for a Population Proportion
In Words In Symbols
1. Identify the sample statistics n
and x.
x
2. Find the point estimate p̂ . pˆ
n
3. Verify that the sampling
distribution of p̂ can be npˆ 5, nqˆ 5
approximated by the normal
distribution.
4. Find the critical value zc that Use Table 4 in
corresponds to the given level of App. B
confidence c.
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Constructing a Confidence Interval
for a Population Proportion
In Words In Symbols
pq
ˆˆ
5. Find the margin of error E. E zc
n
6. Find the left and right Left endpoint: p̂ E
endpoints and form the Right endpoint: p̂ E
confidence interval. Interval:
pˆ E p pˆ E
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Example: Constructing a
Confidence Interval for p
Use the data in Example 1 to construct a 95% confidence
interval for the population proportion of U.S. adults who
use Facebook.
Solution:
= 0.68. The point estimate for the population proportion
of failures is
= 1 – 0.68 = 0.32.
Using n = 1550, verify that the sampling distribution of
can be approximated by a normal distribution.
n = (1550)(0.68) = 1054 > 5 and
n = (1550)(0.32) = 496 > 5.
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Solution: Constructing a
Confidence Interval for p
• Using zc = 1.96, the margin of error is
E = zc = 1.96 0.023.
• Next, find the left and right endpoints and form the
95% confidence interval.
Left Endpoint Right Endpoint
– E 0.68 – 0.023 + E ≈ 0.68 + 0.023
= 0.657 = 0.703
0.657 < p < 0.703
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Solution: Constructing a
Confidence Interval for p
• 0.657 < p < 0.703
With 95% confidence, you can say that the population
proportion of U.S. adults who use Facebook is between
65.7% and 70.3%.
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Example: Constructing a
Confidence Interval for p
The figure below is from a survey of 800 U.S. adults
ages 18 to 29. Construct a 99% confidence interval for
the population proportion of 18- to 29-year-olds who
get their news on television. (Adapted from Pew
Research Center)
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Solution: Constructing a
Confidence Interval for p
Solution
From the figure, = 0.27. So, = 1 – 0.27 = 0.73. Using n
= 800, note that
n = (800)(0.27) = 216 > 5 and
n = (800)(0.73) = 584 > 5.
So, the sampling distribution of is approximately
normal.
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Solution: Constructing a
Confidence Interval for p
• Using zc = 2.575, the margin of error is
E = zc 2.575 0.040.
• Next, find the left and right endpoints and form the
99% confidence interval.
Left Endpoint Right Endpoint
– E 0.27 – 0.040 + E 0.27 + 0.040
= 0.230 = 0.310
0.230 < p < 0.310
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Solution: Constructing a
Confidence Interval for p
• 0.230 < p < 0.310
With 99% confidence, you can say that the population
proportion of 18- to 29-year-olds who get their news on
television is between 23.0% and 31.0%.
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Finding a Minimum Sample
Size
• Given a c-confidence level and a margin of error E,
the minimum sample size n needed to estimate p is
2
zc
n pq
ˆ ˆ
E
• If n is not a whole number, then round n up to the
next whole number.
• This formula assumes you have an estimate for
and .
If not, use = 0.5 and = 0.5.
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Example: Determining a
Minimum Sample Size
You are running a political campaign and wish to
estimate, with 95% confidence, the proportion of
registered voters who will vote for your candidate.
Your estimate must be accurate within 3% of the true
population. Find the minimum sample size needed when
1. no preliminary estimate is available.
Solution:
Because you do not have a preliminary estimate
for p̂ use pˆ 0.5 and qˆ 0.5.
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Solution: Determining a
Minimum Sample Size
• zc = 1.96 E = 0.03
2 2
zc 1.96
n pq
ˆ ˆ (0.5)(0.5) 1067.11
E 0.03
Round up to the nearest whole number.
With no preliminary estimate, the minimum sample
size should be at least 1068 voters.
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Example: Determining a
Minimum Sample Size
You are running a political campaign and wish to
estimate, with 95% confidence, the proportion of
registered voters who will vote for your candidate. Your
estimate must be accurate within 3% of the true
population. Find the minimum sample size needed if
2. a preliminary estimate gives pˆ 0.31.
Solution:
Use the preliminary estimate pˆ 0.31
qˆ 1 pˆ 1 0.31 0.69
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Solution: Determining a
Minimum Sample Size
• zc = 1.96 E = 0.03
2 2
zc 1.96
n pq
ˆ ˆ (0.31)(0.69) 913.02
E 0.03
Round up to the nearest whole number.
With a preliminary estimate of pˆ 0.31, the
minimum sample size should be at least 914 voters.
You need a larger sample size if no preliminary
estimate is available.
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