THE NUCLEAR ISSUE

Pakistan and Geopolitical Studies

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Content
 Why States go nuclear?
 Power Dynamics Associated with Acquisition of Nuclear
Technology and Weapons
 Nuclear Weapons Development: 1947-98
 Post 1998 Developments
 Indian Nuclear Doctrine
 Pakistani Nuclear Doctrine
 Pakistan’s Ballistic Missile Systems
 Indian Ballistic Missile Systems
 NSG Waiver to India and Implications for Regional Balance
of Power
 Nuclear Energy for civil purposes

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How We Shall Proceed
 Videos of Nuclear Attack
 Some Quotes on Nuclear Weapons
 Development of Nuclear Programmes in South
Asia
 Pakistan and India’s Nuclear Doctrines
 Nuclear Energy for civilian purposes
 Why it is imperative to equip ourselves

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USA Unleashes the Deadly Bomb on Japan

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Quotes on Nuclear Weapons

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Quotes on Nuclear Weapons

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Quotes on Nuclear Weapons

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Quotes on Nuclear Weapons

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Quotes on Nuclear Weapons

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Quotes on Nuclear Weapons

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Quotes on Nuclear Weapons

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Why States Go Nuclear?
• To enhance national security by creating a credible deterrent against potential adversaries. The
Security and Deterrence possession of nuclear weapons is often seen as a means to deter aggression and protect a state
from external threats

• To enhance international prestige and status. Nuclear weapons are considered a symbol of great
Prestige and Status power status, and their possession can elevate a state's standing in the global arena.

• To balance power dynamics in a region. If neighboring states possess nuclear weapons, a state
Regional Balancing may feel compelled to acquire them to maintain a balance of power and prevent being
strategically disadvantaged.

National Pride and •To assert national pride and sovereignty. Some states pursue nuclear weapons as a matter of
national pride and to demonstrate their independence in decision-making on matters of national
Sovereignty security.

• To counter perceived threats. If a state perceives existential threats or faces a hostile security
Perceived Threats environment, the acquisition of nuclear weapons may be viewed as a necessary measure for
survival.

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Nuclear Acquisition Models
• States pursue nuclear weapons for security reasons, primarily to deter
Security Model potential adversaries and protect their sovereignty. (India)

• States seek nuclear weapons for prestige and status, aiming to assert
Prestige Model themselves as major players in global politics. ((North Korea)

• States pursue nuclear weapons to balance power dynamics in a region,

Survival Model • States view nuclear weapons as essential for survival, particularly in the face
of perceived existential threats. (Israel)

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Power Dynamics Associated with Acquisition
of Nuclear Technology and Weapons
1. Strategic Advantage:
Acquiring nuclear weapons can provide a state with a strategic advantage, influencing the balance of power in its favor and potentially
deterring adversaries.
2. International Influence:
Possession of nuclear weapons enhances a state's international influence, allowing it to play a more significant role in global affairs
and negotiations.
3. Security Guarantees:
Nuclear weapons can provide a form of security guarantee, reducing the likelihood of external intervention or aggression against a
nuclear-armed state.
4. Regional Dynamics:
The acquisition of nuclear weapons can reshape regional dynamics, affecting the behavior of neighboring states and potentially leading
to arms races.
5. Non-Proliferation Regime:
States with nuclear weapons have a unique position in international negotiations on non-proliferation issues, influencing global efforts
to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons.
6. Perceived Threats and Tensions:
The pursuit of nuclear weapons can increase tensions and security concerns among neighboring states, potentially leading to regional
instability.

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 Nuclear Weapons Development: 1947-98
1940s -1959
India Pakistan
 1948 – AEC created, Homi Bhabha  Late 1950s – Zulfikar Ali Bhutto,
strongly supports creating a self- Minister for Fuel and Natural
sufficient nuclear infrastructure Resources, advocates the
 Building the nuclear infrastructure development of nuclear weapons
and creating a large pool of trained  1956 – Pakistan Atomic Energy
personnel Commission (PAEC) created
 China’s development of nuclear
weapons is acknowledged in internal
discussions
 Political establishment against
nuclear weapons

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Nuclear Weapons Development: 1960’s
India Pakistan
 1960s – increased nuclear assistance from  Pakistan acquires and begins operating
foreign countries Pakistan Atomic Research Reactor
 1962 - Disastrous border war with China shifts (PARR)
opinion gradually in favor of nuclear weapons  Mid-1960s – Bhutto’s requests Gen Ayub
 1964 – China’s nuclear test further strengthens Khan to build nuclear weapons
the pro-bomb lobby.
 1965 – SNEPP initiated, Indo-Pak war
 1964-65 – Pakistan takes notice of
(China’s support for Pakistan & U.S. refusal to India’s reaction to China’s nuclear test
supply arms)  1965 – Indo-Pak war (U.S. refusal to
 1966 – SNEPP halted supply arms)
 Late 1967 – new effort to develop nuclear  Late 1960s - Bhutto writes Myth of
explosives initiated Independence in which he advocates the
 1968-70 – India opposes the NPT development of nuclear weapons.
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Nuclear Weapons Development: 1970’s
India Pakistan
 1971 – Indo-Pak war  1971 – Indo-Pak war
 January 1972 – Bhutto convenes a meeting of
 1972 – Approval given for fabricating scientists and announces the decision to develop
a nuclear explosive nuclear weapons
 1974 – India tests a nuclear  1973-77 – Pakistan tries to acquire reprocessing
explosive, dubbed as a PNE. Exact plants from France, but U.S. intervenes
yield is still unclear (between 4 – 12  1974 – A.Q. Khan, working in the Netherlands,
offers his assistance
kilotons)
 1975 – Pakistan starts acquiring equipment for
 Post 1974 – further development of uranium enrichment and other components of
nuclear weapons is slowed down the nuclear fuel cycle
 Pakistan shifts from a plutonium based nuclear
arsenal to HEU based arsenal

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Nuclear Weapons Development: 1980’s
India Pakistan
 Early to mid 1980s – nuclear weapons  Pakistan steadily makes progress in its
development proceeds in fits and nuclear weapons program (enrichment
starts. 1974 design is improved facility operational, cold tests conducted,
nuclear test-site built)
 1982 – Additional nuclear tests
planned but cancelled  U.S. ignores Pakistan’s nuclear weapons
program due to the Afghan war
 1983 – India sanctions the Integrated  1987 – Op. Brasstacks, A.Q. Khan
Guided Missile Development delivers an implicit nuclear threat to an
Program (IGMDP) Indian journalist. Officially, a Pakistani
 1986-87 – Operation Brasstacks, first minister delivers a similar nuclear threat
nuclear crisis  Late 1980s – Pakistan begins
development of ballistic missiles

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Nuclear Weapons Development: 1990’s
India Pakistan
 1990 – crisis over Kashmir (second  1990 – crisis over Kashmir (second
nuclear crisis) nuclear crisis)
 1995 – NPT extended indefinitely  Pakistan acquires ballistic missile
 1995 – India prepares for nuclear technology from North Korea
test(s) but cancels after U.S. discovers  April 1998 – Pakistan tests the Ghauri
test(s) preparations ballistic missile
 1996 – CTBT opens for signature  May 1998 – Pakistan conducts 6
 May 1998 – India conducts 5 nuclear nuclear tests
tests

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Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia
 Indian nuclear tests: May 11 and 13, 1998
 Diplomatic efforts to stop Pakistani tests
 Pakistan nuclear tests: May 28 & 30, 1998
 Immediate economic sanctions on both India
and Pakistan

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 Post 1998 Developments
India Pakistan
 Formulates a nuclear doctrine – adopts a no-  Creates a National Command Authority (NCA) to
first use posture and a triad based on a manage strategic forces
minimum and survivable deterrent force  Formulates a nuclear doctrine, rejects no-first use
 Constitutes a tri-service Strategic Rocket of nuclear weapons. Official doctrine not released
Command to manage land-based nuclear  1999 – Kargil conflict
missiles  2001: Attack on Indian Parliament
 Creates a Nuclear Command Authority  2002 – Increased tensions
(NCA) to manage nuclear forces  2008: Mumbai Attacks
 1999 – Kargil conflict  2016: Pathankot Attack and Uri Attack
 2001: Attack on Indian Parliament  2019: Pulwama Attack and Balakot Airstrikes
 2002 – Increased tensions
 2008: Mumbai Attacks
 2016: Pathankot Attack and Uri Attack
 2019: Pulwama Attack and Balakot Airstrikes 21
 Nuclearization of South Asia & Stability
India Pakistan
 Tension with China  Nuclear weapons capability by 1989-
 1974 “peaceful nuclear explosion” 1990
(PNE)  Today: ~90-110 nuclear weapons
 Today: ~80-100 nuclear weapons  Goals: overcoming conventional
 Goal: regional stability inferiority,
 Keeping regional balance of power

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Nuclear Doctrine
 What is a Nuclear Doctrine
 The nuclear doctrine of a country is the set of principles and guidelines that
define its nuclear weapons policy, such as when, how, and why to use them. India
and Pakistan are both nuclear-armed states that have a history of conflict and
rivalry, and their nuclear doctrines reflect their security and strategic interests.

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Indian Nuclear Doctrine
 No First Use (NFU):
• Stance: India declares a policy of No First Use, meaning it commits not to use nuclear weapons first in any conflict.
• Exception: However, India retains the right to respond with nuclear weapons if it faces a nuclear attack or a major attack
using other weapons of mass destruction.
 Massive Retaliation:
• Response: In the event of a nuclear attack on India or its forces, the response will be massive and designed to inflict
unacceptable damage on the adversary.
 Credible Minimum Deterrence:
• Credible Minimum Deterrence" is a concept in nuclear strategy that refers to the idea that a country, in possessing
nuclear weapons, aims to maintain only the minimum level of nuclear capability necessary to deter an adversary from
launching a nuclear attack.
• Objective: India's nuclear doctrine aims at maintaining a credible minimum deterrent to deter potential adversaries.
• Arsenal: The focus is on having a sufficiently potent and survivable arsenal rather than pursuing an extensive nuclear
stockpile.
 Non-use Against Non-nuclear Weapons States:
• Policy: India has a policy of not using nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapons states.

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Pakistani Nuclear Doctrine
 Full Spectrum Deterrence:
• Objective: Pakistan's nuclear doctrine includes the concept of Full Spectrum Deterrence, which implies a
range of nuclear capabilities designed to deter aggression at all levels of conflict.
• Flexible Response: Pakistan emphasizes the flexibility of its response options, suggesting that it could use
nuclear weapons in response to conventional threats.
 First Use in Response to Aggression:
• Stance: Unlike India's NFU policy, Pakistan has not committed to a strict No First Use policy. It retains the
option of using nuclear weapons first in response to perceived existential threats.
 Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNWs):
• Development: Pakistan has developed and deployed short-range, battlefield nuclear weapons known as
Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNWs).
• Purpose: TNWs are seen as a means to counter India's conventional military superiority and to raise the
threshold for the use of conventional forces.
 Credible Minimum Deterrence:
• Similarity: Like India, Pakistan also emphasizes the concept of maintaining a credible minimum deterrent.

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Pakistan’s Ballistic Missile Systems
(Source: Arms Control Today)

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India’s Ballistic Missile Systems
(Source: Arms Control Today)

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NSG Waiver
 NSG Waiver to India is a special exemption granted by the Nuclear
Suppliers Group (NSG) to India in 2008, allowing it to participate in
civilian nuclear trade with other countries, despite not being a signatory
to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The NSG is a group of 48
countries that seek to prevent nuclear proliferation by controlling the
export of materials, equipment, and technology that can be used to make
nuclear weapons.

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NSG Waiver
 The NSG Waiver to India was a result of the India-US Civil Nuclear
Agreement, also known as the 123 Agreement, signed in 2005. The
agreement aimed to enhance cooperation and partnership between India
and the US on civil nuclear energy, as well as other areas of mutual
interest, such as trade, security, and democracy. The agreement also
recognized India as a responsible nuclear state with an advanced nuclear
program and a strong non-proliferation record.

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NSG Waiver
 The NSG Waiver to India required the consensus of all the NSG members,
some of whom had reservations and objections to the deal. The main
opposition came from China, which argued that the waiver would
undermine the NPT and the global non-proliferation regime, and that it
would create a double standard and discrimination against other non-
NPT states, such as Pakistan. The waiver was also opposed by some non-
governmental organizations and activists, who feared that it would
increase the risk of nuclear arms race and conflict in South Asia.
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NSG Waiver
 The NSG Waiver to India has significant implications and benefits for
India, as well as for the world. The waiver enables India to access civilian
nuclear technology and fuel from other countries, which can help India
meet its growing energy demand, reduce its dependence on fossil fuels,
and address its climate change challenges. The waiver also enhances
India’s status and role as a hegemon in Asia and global player and partner,
especially in the fields of science, technology, and innovation. The waiver
can disturb the regional balance of power to a greater degree.
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NUCLEAR ENERGY FOR
PEACEFUL PURPOSES

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Nuclear Energy and Power Generation

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Nuclear Energy and Power Generation
 In December 2022 alone, the electricity produced by Pakistan’s nuclear power
reactors made up 27% of the nation’s total energy requirement. The overall cost of
the energy produced was equal to one-half of a US penny. Similarly, nuclear power
plants generated 2284.8 GWh in the final month of the previous year, making them
one of the top energy producers, followed by hydroelectric, coal-based electricity,
natural gas, and re-gassified liquified natural gas (RLNG).

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Nuclear Energy and Power Generation

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Nuclear Energy and Power Generation
 According to reliable and credible sources, Pakistan through its six NPPs
has saved $3.035 billion with reference to oil, $2.207 billion with
reference to RLNG, and $1.586 billion with reference to imported coal
during the fiscal year 2022. The same amount of electricity produced by
NPPs when generated by other sources of energy production costs some
$3billion extra in fuel charges alone, not including the amount of
expenses on other related ingredients, further affecting the broader
parameters of Pakistan’s economy
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Nuclear Energy and Power Generation
 As per an estimate of December 2022, out of the total share of electricity
generated from all sources, the share of nuclear energy was 27.15 percent (or
2,284.8 GWh) generated at Rs1.073/unit, followed by hydel with 20.44
percent (1,720.4 GWh), coal-based power 18.1 percent (1,520.9 GWh) at
Rs11.5/unit, natural gas 15.13 percent (1,273.8 GWh) at Rs10.5/unit, RLNG
13.7 percent (1,153.7 GWh) at Rs20.2/unit.
 Besides, 0.46 percent (38.91 GWh) of expensive electricity was generated
from furnace oil during December at Rs25.7971/unit.
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Nuclear Energy and Power Generation

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Nuclear Medicine
 In Pakistan, nuclear medicine services are delivered under the Pakistan
Nuclear Regulatory Authority (PNRA), guided by the principles laid down by
the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). There are 51 nuclear
medicine setups, public and private sector included, with varying degree of
services in the country. Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) is the
largest single contributor with 18 centers spread across the length and
breadth of the country, including some remote cities.

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Quran and Military Preparedeness

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Quran and Military Preparedeness
 This verse from the Holy Quran instructs Muslims to be prepared to defend themselves against their
enemies:
 “And prepare against them whatever you are able of power, including steeds of war to threaten the
enemy of Allah and your enemy, and others besides them, whom you may not know but whom Allah does
know.
And whatever you shall spend in the cause of Allah shall be repaid unto you, and you shall not be treate
d unjustly.”
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 This verse emphasizes the importance of being ready to defend oneself against enemies of Allah and
their enemies. It also highlights the significance of spending in the cause of Allah, which will be
rewarded by Allah in return. 41
Thank You

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