Chapter Four

Population Growth and

Economic Development

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 Structure of the
Presentation
 Some Basic Concepts
 Historical Trends in Population Growth
 Structure of the World’s Population
 The Demographic Transition
 Causes and Consequences of High Fertility
 From Population Growth to Economic
Development: Some Policy Approaches

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 Brainstorming
Questions
 What are the causes of population
growth?
 Is population growth an opportunity
or a threat to development?
 What are the consequences of
population growth?
 What can you recommend to reap
the positive and reduce the negative
consequences of population growth?

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4.1 Basic Concepts
 Population Growth
 Is change in the number of individuals in a
population over a specific period

Can be influenced by factors such as birth


rates, death rates, migration, and age
structure
 Natural population increase:
 Difference between the number of births and deaths
in a population over a given period

 When births outnumber deaths, the population

experiences natural growth
 Fertility Rates:
 The average number of children born per woman

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4.2 Historical Trend of population
growth

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…Trend
Past population growth
 10,000 years ago, the estimated world
population was around 5 million
 2,000 years ago, world population had grown to
at least 175 million
 From year 1 to around1500, it was 450 million
 What do you think was the reason for slow growth rate
of population during this period?

 Some of the reasons could be:

 High infant and child mortality
 High maternal mortality
 Limited medical facilities and knowledge
 Limited food supply and famine incidence
 War and conflict

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…Trend
 In 1850 ( period of industrial revolution), the
global population was around 1.25 billion people.

 By 1950, it reached 2.536 billion

 In 100 years (1850–1950), an additional 1.28

billion people were added to the planet’s
numbers

 In four decades thereafter (1950–1990), the

earth’s human population more than doubled
again, bringing the total figure to around 5.3
billion.

 What do you think are reasons for rapid

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…Trend
The rapid population increase was largely due to:
 Declining mortality
 Improvements in healthcare, sanitation,
and nutrition
 Campaigns against malaria, smallpox,
yellow fever, and cholera
 High fertility rate
 Cultural norms, lack of access to family
planning, limited education and employment
opportunities for women
 Higher life expectancy
 Economic Development
 In the short run- contribute rapid population growth
due to healthcare and improved living standard
 In the long run lead to lower fertility. Why?
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…Trend
 In 2018 the world population has reached 7.25
billion
 In 2050 it was forecasted to be reach 9.8 billion
and in 2100, 11.2 billion
 Even though to world population growth rate have
slowed, the global population continues to increase.

 As of the latest data, the world's population is growing

at an estimated rate of around 1.14% per year

 This means that the population is currently increasing

by approximately 86 million people annually.

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4.3 Structure of the World’s
Population
Regional Variations:
 Population growth rates vary significantly by
region

 Africa and parts of Asia, continue experiencing

high population growth. Why?
 High fertility rates, limited access to
contraception, and cultural norms favoring larger
families

 In contrast, many developed countries, especially

in Europe and East Asia, have low or even
negative population growth rates. Why?
 Declining fertility rates, and net outmigration

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…Structure
World Population Distribution by Region, 2010 and 2050
…Structure
Fertility Trends
 Fertility rates: the average number of children
born per woman
 Replacement level: 2 children per a women
 Above replacement level: 2.1 children per women
 Bellow replacement level: less than 2 children per
women
 In many countries, fertility began falling by
around 1970
 However, it still vary widely by country and
region, with some experiencing very high rates
while others reached below-replacement
levels

 Fertility rate has been falling less rapidly in

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…Structure
Fertility rate for selected countries, 1990 and 1027

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…Structure
Age structure (population pyramid)
 Population is relatively young in the developing
world
 In countries with such an age structure, the
dependency ratio is very high
 The workforce in developing countries must
support as many children as it does in the
wealthier countries
 The base of the population pyramid was
 very wide for the low-income countries,
 not quite as wide for middle income countries,
 much steeper for the high-income countries

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…Structure
Population Pyramids: Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Countries,
1965; and 2016

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 4.4 Demographic transition
 A model indicating historical shift of populations
from
 high birth and high death rates to low birth and low
death rates

 Provides a framework for understanding the link

b/n population growth and economic
development.

 It suggests that as societies progress from

agrarian to industrialized economies;
 they experience predictable shifts in birth and death
rates,
 leading to changes in population growth rates and age
structures.
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 …Transition
The five stage demographic transition

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 …Transition
1. Pre-Industrial ( high stationary)
 Both birth rates and death rates are high, resulting in
minimal population growth.
 Characterized by agrarian economies and limited access to
healthcare
2. Early Industrial ( early expanding)
 Decline in death rates while birth rates remain high
 Characterized by significant population expansion.
3. Late Industrial ( late expanding)
 Birth rates begin to decline and death rate remain low
 Characterized by smaller family sizes and slower population
growth
 Population growth slows down during this stage

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 …Transition
4. Post-Industrial ( low stationary)
 Both birth and death rates are low, resulting in a
stable or slowly growing population.
 Population aging becomes a significant
demographic challenge as life expectancy
increases and birth rates remain below
replacement level.
5. Declining
 Very low birth rate and low death rate

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4.5 Causes of High Fertility
 Cultural and Social Norms: Cultural attitudes
towards family size and marriage can influence
fertility rates.
 In some societies, larger families are source of pride,
social status, or economic security
 Lack of access to contraception and family
planning programs
 This may be due to factors such as cost, availability,
and cultural or religious beliefs.
 Economic factors:
 he need for labor in agricultural economies or
expectations of support in old age.
 Low Levels of education among women
 Inadequate healthcare infrastructure: Limited
access to healthcare services, particularly in
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 4.6 Consequence of High Fertility
 Population growth have both positive and
negative effects on economic
development
Positive Effects:
 Increased labor supply for economy
 Market expansion: create larger consumer
markets, stimulating demand for goods and
services
 Innovation and entrepreneurship: to meet the
needs of expanding markets.
 Human capital accumulation

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 …Consequence
Negative Effects:
 lowers per capita income growth
 Pressure on resources
 Pressure on natural resources,
infrastructure, and public services, leading to
 environmental degradation and pollution
 Unemployment and underemployment

 Poverty and Income Inequality, inadequate

access to education and healthcare
 Lower education and health services

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 …Consequence
 Food shortage and hunger: feeding the
world’s population is made more difficult by rapid
population growth

 International migration

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 Some policy Approach
 Invest in female education and job creation
 Female nonagricultural wage employment
 Access to family panning Services
 Educate people about negative consequences of
high fertility rate and provide family planning
programs
 Improve international economic relations
 Research into technology of fertility control
 Financial assistance for family planning
programs
 Development of old-age and social security plans
 Lowered prices and better information on
contraceptives

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 Some policy Approach
Reading Assignment
 Malthusian Population Trap

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