Building the Schedule

Estimating Activities and the Critical

Path, and Developing the Scheduke
Week 5

MGT4109 – Project Time Management & Technology

 By the end of this class, you will…
• Describe Activity Estimation in Project Management.
• List the key activities for activity duration estimation
• Discuss the role of the project manager in estimating activities.
• Describe the Schedule Model.
• Describe the benefits and provide examples of Gantt Charts
• Identify the Critical Path for a project schedule
• Discuss Project Float
• Use MSProject to: Add and manage activity durations, enable auto scheduling, and use the
different techniques to improve the schedule.

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 PMBOK: Project Schedule
Management Overview

There are 6 processes related to schedule

management in PMBOK. 5 are under
Planning, and 1 under Control & Monitor
process groups.

6.1 Plan Schedule Management

6.2 Define Activities
6.3 Sequence Activities
6.4 Estimate Activity Durations
6.5 Develop Schedule

6.6 Control Schedule

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 Estimating Activities Duration

Estimating activity durations uses information from the scope of work, required
resource types or skill levels, estimated resource quantities, and resource
calendars. Other factors that may influence the duration estimates include
constraints imposed on the duration, effort involved, or type of resources (e.g.,
fixed duration, fixed effort or work, fixed number of resources

The Estimate Activity Durations process requires an estimation of the amount

of work effort required to complete the activity and the of available resources
estimated to complete the activity. These estimates are used to approximate the
number of work periods (activity duration) needed to complete the activity
using the appropriate project and resource calendars.

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 Estimating Activities Duration
Inputs Tools & Techniques Outputs

1. Project management plan 1. Expert judgement 1. Duration estimates

2. Activity list and attributes 2. Analogous estimating 2. Basis of estimates
3. List of milestones 3. Parametric estimating 3. Updates to project
4. Resource requirements, 4. Three-point estimating documents: activity
assignments, and 5. Data analysis for attributes, assumption
calendars. alternatives and reserve log, and lessons learned.
5. Lessons learned 6. Meetings
6. Enterprise factors
7. Org processes
8. Risk register

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 Things you need to estimate activity duration

• List of activities and their attributes, including

description, successor and predecessor relationships,
and leads and lags.
Milestone list
• Resource list and assignments
• Resource calendars (work hours, vacations and holidays
etc.)
• Assumptions log (constraints and assumptions that
bring risks)
6 • Resource requirements
 Activity duration estimation: tools and techniques

Expert judgement:
Expertise should be considered from individuals or
groups with specialized knowledge or training in the
following topics:
• Schedule development, management, and
control
• Expertise in estimating
• Discipline or application knowledge.

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 Activity duration estimation: tools and techniques

Analogous Estimating:
• Analogous estimating is a technique for estimating the duration or
cost of an activity or a project using historical data from a similar
activity or project.
• Analogous estimating is generally less costly and less time-
consuming than other techniques, but it is also less accurate.
• Analogous estimating is most reliable when the previous activities
are similar in fact and not just in appearance, and the project team
members preparing the estimates have the needed expertise.

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 Activity duration estimation: tools and techniques

PARAMETRIC ESTIMATING
Parametric estimating is an estimating technique in which an algorithm is used to calculate cost or duration based on
historical data and project parameters. Parametric estimating uses a statistical relationship between historical data
and other variables (e.g., square footage in construction) to calculate an estimate for activity parameters, such as
cost, budget, and duration.
Example:
It takes 1 hours to install 10 foot of a fence (0.1 hour per 10 ft). A fence that is 200 feet long, the duration is:
Time needed for 200 feet = 0.1 x 200
= 20 hours.
Parametric estimating can be improved using additional factors such as employee performance, weather or traffic.

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 Activity duration estimation: tools and techniques

THREE-POINT ESTIMATING
This technique uses 3 points (values) to create an estimate that helps define an approximate range for an activity
duration. It uses the following:
1. Most likely (tM): the realistic estimate of the duration.
2. Optimistic (tO): the activity duration based on analysis of the best-case scenario for the activity.
3. Pessimistic (tP): the duration of the activity based on the worst-case scenario.
Based on the three-point estimates above, the expected duration of the activity (tE) can be calculated as:
tE= (tO + tM + tP) / 3
For example, building a fence will likely need 5 days, but if things go well we may finish in 3 days. If it rains, it may
take 9 days to finish.
tE = (4 + 5 + 9)/3 = 6 days.

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 Activity duration estimation: tools and techniques
Other techniques:
• BOTTOM-UP ESTIMATING
• DATA ANALYSIS:
Alternatives analysis.
Reserve analysis.
• DECISION MAKING (team members voting)
• MEETINGS (such as sprint or iteration meetings)

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 Activity duration estimation: tools and techniques
BOTTOM-UP ESTIMATING
Bottom-up estimating involves the
estimation of work at the lowest
possible level of detail. These
estimates are then aggregated in
order to arrive at summary totals.
By building detailed cost and time
estimates for a work package, the
probability of being able to meet
the estimated amounts improves
substantially.

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 Activity duration estimation: tools and techniques
Reserve analysis (Contingency)
Reserve Analysis: Used for estimating activity duration and cost, reserve analysis includes estimation of
additional time to the project schedule (to allow time for unexpected delay) and additional cost to the project
budget (in case of activity cost overruns)

The PMBOK defines reserve analysis as "an analytical technique to determine the essential features and
relationships of components in the project management plan to establish a reserve for the schedule duration,
budget, estimated cost, or funds for a project.“

Contingency reserve analysis is an integral part of project management because it helps to ensure that the
project is completed on time and within budget. Project managers can reduce the likelihood of unexpected
delays or cost overruns by identifying potential risks and taking steps to mitigate or eliminate them.

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 GANTT Chart

A Gantt chart is a project

management tool that illustrates
work completed over a period of time
in relation to the time planned for the
work.
It typically includes two sections:
• the left side outlines a list of tasks
• the right side has a timeline with
schedule bars that visualize work.

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 Activity duration estimation: tools and techniques
Alternatives analysis.

Alternatives analysis is the process of achieving the same outcome through different means or ways. For
example, if we re-deploy resources from a task with float to another task with zero float to crash that task, there
is a possibility of controlling delays. At the same time, there are risks associated with it.

DECISION MAKING (team members voting)

Often used in Agile methodology, team members vote on the Story Points that represent the amount of effort
needed for a specific task. Once team members votes, outliers are removed, and the voting continues until
consensus is reached.

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 Activity duration estimation: outputs
• Duration estimates: a quantitative assessment of time needed for the activity with a range
of possible results such as:
• A range of 2 weeks ± 2 days
• 3 weeks with 15% of exceeding and 85% confidence that it will be 3 weeks or
less.

• Basis of estimates: such as amount and type of additional details supporting the estimates.
• Project documents updates:
• Updates to activity attributes
• Updates to assumptions log
• Updates to lessons learned

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 Developing the Schedule

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 What is involved with developing a schedule?
Developing an acceptable project schedule is an iterative process.
The schedule model is used to determine the planned start and finish dates for project activities and milestones
based on the best

available information.

Schedule development can require the review and revision of duration estimates, resource estimates, and
schedule reserves to establish an approved project schedule that can serve as a baseline to track progress.

Key steps include defining the project milestones, identifying and sequencing activities, and estimating
durations. Once the activity start and finish dates have been determined, it is common to have the project staff
assigned to the activities review their assigned activities.

The staff confirms that the start and finish dates present no conflict with resource calendars or assigned
activities on other projects or tasks and thus are still valid. The schedule is then analyzed to determine conflicts
with logical relationships and if resource leveling is required before the schedule is approved and baselined.

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 The Schedule Model: how do build a schedule?

19 Project Scheduling & the PMI-SP Credential - ppt video online download (google.com)
 Project Information

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 Scheduling Method

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 Scheduling Method: CPM

The critical path method is a technique

that allows you to identify tasks that are
necessary for project completion.
The critical path in project management
is the longest sequence of activities that
must be finished on time to complete the
entire project
Example of determining the Critical Path

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 Developing the schedule: tools and techniques
Duration
Critical Path Method
Total float
The Duration and the Total
Float are key in calculating
the Critical Path for the project
schedule.

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 Scheduling Tools

Microsoft Project Professional

Primavera
GanttPro
Monday.com
Smartsheet
Zoho
Wrike
Asana
Zapier
….

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 Developing the schedule: inputs outputs and techniques

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 Developing the schedule: tools and techniques

SCHEDULE NETWORK ANALYSIS

• Schedule network analysis is the overarching technique used to generate the project schedule model.
• It employs several other techniques such as:
• Critical path method
• Resource optimization techniques
Modeling techniques
• Other forms of analysis such as:
• Assessing the need to aggregate schedule reserves to reduce the probability of a schedule slip.
• Reviewing the network to see if the critical path has high-risk activities or long lead items that
would necessitate use of schedule reserves or the implementation of risk responses to reduce
the risk on the critical path.

Schedule network analysis is an iterative process that is employed until a viable schedule
model is developed.

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 Developing the schedule: tools and techniques

Critical Path Method

The critical path method is used to estimate the
minimum project duration and determine the
amount of schedule flexibility on the logical
network paths within the schedule model.

Schedule network analysis technique calculates the early start, early finish, late start,
and late finish dates for all activities without regard for any resource limitations by
performing a forward and backward pass analysis through the schedule network.

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 Developing the schedule: tools and techniques

Critical Path Method

The longest path includes activities A, C, and
D, and therefore the sequence of A-C-D is the
critical path. The critical path is the sequence of
activities that represents the longest path
through a project, which determines the shortest
possible project duration. The longest path has
the least total float—usually zero.

The critical path method is used to calculate the critical path(s) and the amount of total and
free float or schedule flexibility on the logical network paths within the schedule model.

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 Developing the schedule: tools and techniques

Project Float
On any network path, the total float or schedule flexibility is
measured by the amount of time that a schedule activity can
be delayed or extended from its early start date without
delaying the project finish date or violating a schedule
constraint. A critical path is normally characterized by zero
total float on the critical path.

• Critical paths may have positive, zero, or negative total float depending on the constraints
applied.
• Positive total float is caused when the backward pass is calculated from a schedule constraint
that is later than the early finish date that has been calculated during forward pass
calculation.
• Negative total float is caused when a constraint on the late dates is violated by duration and
logic.
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 Developing the schedule: tools and techniques
Critical path is ACD
Total float = 0
Project duration is 30 days.

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 Developing the schedule: tools and techniques

Project Float
Negative float analysis is a technique that helps to find possible accelerated ways of
bringing a delayed schedule back on track.

Adjustments to activity durations (when more resources or less scope can be arranged), logical
relationships (when the relationships were discretionary to begin with), leads and lags, or other
schedule constraints may be necessary to produce network paths with a zero or positive total float.

Once the total float and the free float have been calculated, the free float is the amount of time that a
schedule activity can be delayed without delaying the early start date of any successor or violating a
schedule constraint.

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 Float vs Free Float

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 Developing the schedule: tools and techniques
Float Scenarios
20 min
Total duration: 50 minutes
Get dressed 20 min Total float: 0
1
Make breakfast 10 min
Make coffee

20 min
Total duration: 60 minutes
2 Get dressed 20 min Total float: 10
Make breakfast 10 min
Make coffee
10 min of Tiktok

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 Developing the schedule: tools and techniques
Float Scenarios

20 min
6 min
20 Total duration: 40 minutes
4 min
Get dressed min Total float: -10 minutes
Make breakfast
Make coffee
10 min

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 Developing the schedule: tools and techniques

Resource Optimization
Resource optimization is used to adjust the start and finish dates of activities to adjust planned
resource use to be equal to or less than resource availability.
Resource leveling. A technique in which the start and finish dates are adjusted based on
resource constraints with the goal of balancing the demand for resources with the available
supply.
Resource leveling can often cause the original critical path to change. Available float is used for
leveling resources. Consequently, the critical path through the project schedule may change.
Resource smoothing. A technique that adjusts the activities of a schedule model such that the
requirements for resources on the project do not exceed certain predefined resource limits.

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 Developing the schedule: tools and techniques

Schedule Compression
Schedule compression techniques are used to shorten or accelerate the schedule duration without
reducing the project scope in order to meet schedule constraints, imposed dates, or other schedule
objectives.
- Crashing: A technique used to shorten the schedule duration for the least incremental cost by adding
resources.
Examples of techniques: pay overtime, bring additional resources, or expedite delivery of activities
on the critical path.
- Fast tracking: activities or phases normally done in sequence are performed in parallel for at least a
portion of their duration.
Fast tracking only works when activities can be overlapped to shorten the project duration on the critical
path

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 Developing the schedule: tools and techniques

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 Developing the schedule:
Delivering a Schedule
Gantt Charts: bar charts represent
schedule information where activities are
listed on the vertical axis, dates are
shown on the horizontal axis, and activity
durations are shown as horizontal bars
placed according to start and finish
dates.

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