IME unit-1
IME unit-1
Keynes's
Theory
Quantity Theories
• How is the general price level determined? Why does price level
change? Classical or pre- Keynesian economists answered all these
questions in terms of quantity theory of money.
• In its simplest form, it states that the general price level (P) in an
economy is directly dependent on the money supply (M);
• P = f(M)
• If M doubles, P will double. If M is reduced to half, P will decline
by the same amount. This is the essence of the quantity theory of
money. Though the theory was first stated in 1586, it received its
full-fledged popularity at the hands of Irving Fisher in 1911. Later,
an alternative approach was given by a group of Cambridge
economists. However, the basic conclusion of these two theories is
same price level varies directly with and proportionally to money
supply.
• Basic Concepts used in theory:
• Quantity of money: the total amount of money in circulation in an economy is
known quantity of money.
• Value of money/ value of currency: The value of money, then, is the quantity
of goods in general that will be exchanged for one unit of money. The value of
money is its purchasing power, i.e., the quantity of goods and services it can
purchase.
• Prices: rate of different goods and services prevailing in the economy is
known as prices.
• Relationship between quantity of money and prices: the theory says there is
direct relationship between quantity of money (M) and Prices, i.e. with
increase in quantity of money (M), prices will also increase and v ice-versa.
This is represented by the following equation: M ∞ P
Fisher’s Transaction Theory of quantity of
money
• Cash balances version of the quantity theory of money is superior to Fisher’s version of the
quantity theory of money on the following grounds:
• (i) The cash balances version lays stress on the subjective valuations and human motives which are the
basis of all economic activities in sharp contrast to the highly mechanical nature of the concept of
velocity in Fisher’s equation.
• (ii) The Cambridge version of the theory brings to light a new element, namely, the level of income,
changes therein and in its velocity. Instead of being concerned with the total transactions it is concerned
with the level of income, which, in turn, determines the level of economic development, employment
and price level. As a matter of fact, the problem of price level cannot be studied without a reference to
changes in income and output. Moreover, it is not the velocity of money which matters but the velocity
of circulation of money due to changes in income that matters.
• (iii) The cash balances equation brings to light the demand for money to hold. This emphasis on the
demand side is in sharp contrast with traditional emphasis on the supply side. Actually, the Cambridge
equation was put forward to validate the classical quantity theory of money according to which the
supply of money is the sole determinant of the price level.
• (iv) The cash balances approach links itself with the general theory of
value, since it explains the value to money in terms of the demand for
and supply of money. The equation P = M/KY is a more useful device
than the transaction equation P = MV/T , because it is easier to know
how large cash- balances individuals hold than to know how much they
spent on various types of transactions.
• (v) The cash balances approach has given rise to the famous liquidity
preference theory, which has become an integral part of the theory of
income, output and employment.
• Demand for money: Liquidity preference means the desire of the public to hold cash. According
to Keynes, there are three motives behind the desire of the public to hold liquid cash: (1) the
transaction motive, (2) the precautionary motive, and (3) the speculative motive.
• Transactions Motive: The transactions motive relates to the demand for money or the need of
cash for the current transactions of individual and business exchanges. Individuals hold cash in
order to bridge the gap between the receipt of income and its expenditure. This is called the
income motive.
• The businessmen also need to hold ready cash in order to meet their current needs like payments
for raw materials, transport, wages etc. This is called the business motive.
• Precautionary motive: Precautionary motive for holding money refers to the desire to hold cash
balances for unforeseen contingencies. Individuals hold some cash to provide for illness,
accidents, unemployment and other unforeseen contingencies. Similarly, businessmen keep cash
in reserve to tide over unfavorable conditions or to gain from unexpected deals.
• Keynes holds that the transaction and precautionary motives are relatively interest inelastic, but
are highly income elastic. The amount of money held under these two motives (M1) is a function
(L1) of the level of income (Y) and is expressed as M1 = L1 (Y)
• Speculative Motive: The speculative motive relates to the desire to hold
one’s resources in liquid form to take advantage of future changes in the
rate of interest or bond prices. Bond prices and the rate of interest are
inversely related to each other. If bond prices are expected to rise, i.e.,
the rate of interest is expected to fall, people will buy bonds to sell when
the price later actually rises. If, however, bond prices are expected to fall,
i.e., the rate of interest is expected to rise, people will sell bonds to avoid
losses.
• According to Keynes, the higher the rate of interest, the lower the
speculative demand for money, and lower the rate of interest, the higher
the speculative demand for money. Algebraically, Keynes expressed the
speculative demand for money as
• M2 = L2 (r)
• Where, L2 is the speculative demand for money, and
• r is the rate of interest.
• Geometrically, it is a smooth curve which slopes downward from left to
right.
• Now, if the total liquid money is denoted by M, the transactions plus
precautionary motives by M1 and the speculative motive by M2,
then
• M = M1 + M2. Since M1 = L1 (Y) and M2 = L2 (r), the total liquidity
preference function is expressed as M = L (Y, r).
• Supply of Money: The supply of money refers to the total quantity
of money in the country. Though the supply of money is a function
of the rate of interest to a certain degree, yet it is considered to be
fixed by the monetary authorities. Hence the supply curve of money
is taken as perfectly inelastic represented by a vertical straight line.
• Determination of the Rate of Interest: Like the price of any product,
the rate of interest is determined at the level where the demand for
money equals the supply of money. In the following figure, the
vertical line QM represents the supply of money and L the total
demand for money curve. Both the curve intersect at E2 where the
equilibrium rate of interest OR is established.
• At the point E1 the supply of money OM is greater than the demand for
money OM1. Consequently, the rate of interest will start declining from
OR1 till the equilibrium rate of interest OR is reached. Similarly at OR2
level of interest rate, the demand for money OM2 is greater than the supply
of money OM. As a result, the rate of interest OR2 will start rising till it
reaches the equilibrium rate OR.
• Criticisms:
• 1. It has been pointed out that the rate of interest is not purely a monetary
phenomenon. Real forces like productivity of capital and thriftiness or
saving by the people also play an important role in the determination of
the rate of interest.
• 2. Liquidity preference is not the only factor governing the rate of interest.
There are several other environmental factors which influence the rate of
interest by affecting the demand for and supply of investible funds. These
factors are : rate of GDP in economy, inflation or deflation in economy,
trade cycle etc.
• 3. The liquidity preference theory does not explain the existence of
different rates of interest prevailing in the market at the same time.
• 4. Keynes ignores saving or waiting as a means or source of investible fund.
To part with liquidity without there being any saving is meaningless.
• 5. The Keynesian theory only explains interest in the short-run. It gives no
clue to the rates of interest in the long run.
Thank You