CHAPTER 7

Probability

• Experiments, Sample Spaces, and

Events
• Probability: Definition, Rules, and
Counting Techniques
 Terminology
An experiment is an activity with observable
results (called outcomes).

A sample point is an outcome of an experiment.

The sample space is the set of all possible sample
points.

An event is a subset of a sample space.

Ex. Rolling a die

Outcomes: landing with a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6

face up.
Sample Space: S ={1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Events:  , {1}, {2}, {3}, {4}, {5}, {6}, S

Impossible Certain
event event
Ex. An experiment consists of spinning the hand
on the disk below two times. Find the sample
space.
P
C
W

S = {(P,C), (P,W), (P,P), (C,P), (C,W), (C,C),

(W,P), (W,C), (W,W)}
 Events
The union of events A and B is the event A  B.
The intersection of events A and B is the event A  B.
The complement of event A is the event AC.

Ex. Rolling a die. S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Let A = {1, 2, 3} and B = {1, 3, 5}

A  B {1, 2,3,5}
A  B {1,3}
C
A  B {2}
Events A and B are mutually exclusive if A  B .

Ex. When rolling a die, if event A = {2, 4, 6}

(evens) and event B = {1, 3, 5} (odds), then A and
B are mutually exclusive.

Ex. When drawing a single card from a standard

deck of cards, if event A = {heart, diamond} (red)
and event B = {spade, club} (black), then A and B
are mutually exclusive.
 Probability
The probability of an event occurring is a measure
of the proportion of the time that the event will
occur in the long run.

Finding the Probability of an Event

Suppose that in n trials an event E occurs m times.
The relative frequency of the event E is m/n.
If the relative frequency approaches some value
P(E) as n becomes larger, then P(E) is called the
empirical probability of E.
 Ex. The table below represents the frequency of
certain types of license plates observed by a family
on a recent trip. Find the probability distribution.

Province Number Probability

Gauteng 45 45/150 = 0.300
Limpopo 80 80/150 = 0.533
Free State 20 20/150 = 0.133
North West 5 5/150 = 0.033

Notice 150 total

observations
Ex. Assume that when rolling a die each face is
equally likely to show up. If event E = {2} then
since S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, we have P(E) = 1/6.
That is, the probability of rolling a 2 is 1 in 6.

Similarly, the probability of rolling any face

number is 1/6.
Let S = {s1, s2, s3,…,sn} where each si represents a
simple event (all mutually exclusive) and let P(si)
represent the probability of event si.
The function P, which assigns a probability to
each simple event is called a probability density
function.
Also
0 P( si ) 1 probabilities are between 0 and 1
P ( s1 )  P ( s2 )  ...  P ( sn ) 1 they add to 1

    P(si )  P(s j )
P  si   s j add probabilities
Finding the Probability of an Event E

1. Determine a sample space S associated with the

experiment.
2. Assign probabilities to the simple events of S.
3. If E = {s1, s2, s3,…,sn} (each a simple event) then
P(E) = P(s1) + P(s2) +…+ P(sn). If E is the
empty set then P(E) = 0.
Ex. An experiment consists of spinning the hand
on the disk below one time. Assume each
outcome is equally likely.
A
C
W
Find P(C) and then find P  C   W  .
Notice S = {C, A, W} each of which has a probability
of 1/3.
1
P C  
3
1 1 2
P  C   W   P (C )  P (W )   
3 3 3
 Properties of the Probability
Density Function

Property 1 P( E ) 0 for any E

Property 2 P( S ) 1
If E and F are mutually exclusive, then
Property 3 P ( E  F ) P ( E )  P ( F )
Ex. A local grocery store has kept track of the amount of
money spent by its customers on a single visit. The probability
table that follows was prepared from that data. Find the
probability that if a customer is selected at random, the amount
spent by the customer will be
a. More than R150 = 0.15
b. More than R50 but less than or equal to R200 = 0.50

Money spent Probability

x  200 0.05
150  x 200 0.10

100  x 150 0.15

0.25
50  x 100
x 50 0.45
 Property 4 Addition Rule
If E and F are any two events of an experiment, then

P ( E  F ) P ( E )  P ( F )  P ( E  F )
Subtract
overlap

E F

Note: If E and F are mutually exclusive, then

P( E  F ) 0
Ex. A card is drawn from a well-shuffled deck of 52
playing cards. What is the probability that it is a king
or a heart?
K = King and H = Heart
4 13 1
P( K )  , P( H )  , P( K  H ) 
52 52 52

P ( K  H ) P ( K )  P ( H )  P ( K  H )
4 13 1
  
52 52 52
16 4
 
52 13
Property 5 Rule of Complements
If E is an event of an experiment and EC denotes
the complement of E, then

 
P E C 1  P ( E )

Ex. A card is drawn from a well-shuffled deck of 52

playing cards. What is the probability that it is not a
king? 4
K = pick a king, P ( K ) 
52

 
P K C
1  P ( K ) 1 
4 48 12
 
52 52 13
Computing the Probability of an
Event in a Uniform Sample Space
Let S be a uniform sample space and let E be any
event. Then

number of favorable outcomes in E n  E 

P E   
number of possible outcomes in S n S 
 Ex. Suppose that you reach into a box of 12 size
AA batteries and you know that 4 of them are
dead. Find the probability that

a. In one draw you get a good battery.

n good batteries  C 8,1 8 2
  
n batteries  C 12,1 12 3

b. In two draws without replacement you get

two good batteries.
n ways to get 2 good  C 8, 2  28 14
  
n ways to draw 2 batteries  C 12, 2  66 33
Ex. Three balls are selected at random without
replacement from the jar below. Find the
probability that

a. All 3 of the balls are green.

n draw 3 green  C 3,3 1
 
n draw 3 C 8,3 56
b. One ball is red and two are black.
n draw 1 red, 2 black  C 2,1C 3, 2  6 3
  
n draw 3 C 8,3 56 28
(1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)

(2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)

(3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3,5) (3,6)

(4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)

(5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)

(6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)