Climate Change and Agriculture:
Impacts, Adaptation, and
Mitigation
Mark W. Rosegrant
Research Fellow Emeritus
International Food Policy Research Institute
Texas State University | 30 March 2023
Outline
Historical perspective
Climate change scenarios
Impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation on crops and
livestock
Impacts on agricultural production and food security
Can investments agricultural research and climate smart farming systems
achieve significant adaptation to and mitigation of climate change
impacts?
Conclusions
Climate change in historical context
The entire history of
agriculture has taken
place in a period of
relatively stable
temperatures.
Agriculture
Source: Adapted from Schellnhuber et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2016)
Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Global Emissions by
Sector, 2019
Total Annual Global GHG
Emissions ~ 50 GtCO2e
Source: IPCC
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
SSP1 – Low Challenges
SSP2 – Intermediate Challenges,
business as usual (med-med)
SSP3 – High Challenges
SSP4 – Adaptation Challenges
Dominate
SSP5 – Mitigation Challenges
Dominate
Projected global population (left; billions) and
global GDP (right; trillion US$ on PPP basis)
Notes: Data from the SSP database; chart by Carbon Brief using Highcharts.
Source: Hausfather, Z. 2018. Explainer: How ‘Shared Socioeconomic Pathways’ explore future climate change
Impacts on crop productivity: long-term trends—
c and d are change in 2069–2099 median yields compared to 1983–2013 median yields
Source: Jägermeyr et al. (Nature Food, 2021)
Impacts on animal productivity: long-term trends
Source: Thornton et al. (Lancet Planetary Health, 2022)
Climate change impacts in 2050: economic responses
matter
Average of 5 global economic models for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds & sugar
Yields Area Production Prices Trade
20
Percent change in 2050
15
10
-5
-10
SSP1-RCP4.5 SSP2-RCP6.0 SSP3-RCP8.5
Source: Wiebe et al., Environmental Research Letters (2015)
Impacts on crop productivity: shorter-term shocks
Low-yield events are projected to become more Multiple climate-related breadbasket failures have become
frequent for maize in southern Africa, with 1-in-20-year more frequent for wheat, soybeans and maize, and this trend is
events becoming 1-in-5-year events in some areas projected to continue with future climate change
Wheat Soybeans
Maize Rice
Source: Thomas et al. (in review) Source: Gaupp et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2019)
Climate effects on nutrient availability
Source: Beach et al. (Lancet Planetary Health, 2019)
13 |
Population at risk of hunger (SSP2, RCP8.5)
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; SAS = South Asia; FSU = Former Soviet Union; MEN = Middle
East and North Africa; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean Source: IFPRI, IMPACT
Can investments achieve significant adaptation to
and mitigation of climate change impacts?
Focus on sustainable development hunger goal (SDG2) and Paris
agreement target for GHG emissions reduction to 2030: closing the
investment gap to reach the food security SDG and the Paris emissions
reductions target.
Investment in agricultural research and development and climate-smart
technical options for farming systems to reduce GHG emissions
Objectives across the investment gap
Ensure less than 5% of the world’s population go hungry by 2030.
Reduce and sequester emissions in agriculture and stop
emissions from land use change for food production, on a
trajectory consistent with stabilizing global warming at less than
2°C above pre-industrial levels.
Modeling the gap: Scenario analysis
Scenarios and projected outcomes
Scenarios modeled in IMPACT are a baseline or business-as-usual scenario and alternative rates of
investment in agricultural research and development
Outcomes for food security are projected as changes in the number of hungry people due to changes
in calorie consumption
GHG emissions post-processor gives the GHG impacts generated by modeled changes in crop and
livestock production systems caused by agricultural productivity growth in the R&D investment
scenarios
Changes in nitrous oxide due to more efficient fertilizer use and changes in methane emissions from
reduction in rice area and number of animals generated by productivity growth
GHG emissions from changes in land cover (reduced deforestation) driven by changes in crop area
harvested and pastureland are computed.
Modeling the mitigation gap: technical options
in farming systems
Assessment of technical options based on data from IPCC and others;
parameters include:
Savings in tCO2e per ha or animal unit
Rate of adoption in % of area or herd
Cost of investment per tCO2e saved
Carbon price of $70/tCO2e
Business as usual
Projected average annual ag R&D investments in the Global South, 2015–2050
R&D to enhance productivity
World population Agricultural Climate change
at risk of hunger emissions impacts
7.3% in 2030 100 Mt CO2 and 66 m more
vs. target of 5% 1,000 MtCO2e non- people at risk of
CO2 emissions over hunger in 2030
the annual carbon
budget to 2030 for 2°C
path
Closing the gap: additional annual investments
Ag R&D for sustainable agriculture intensification
Assessment of technical options
based on data from IPCC and
others; parameters include:
Savings in tCO2e per ha or
animal unit
Rate of adoption in % of area
or herd
Cost of investment per tCO2e
saved
Carbon price of $70/tCO2e
Technical mitigation options
Projected changes in crop yields under alternative investment
scenarios, % difference from REF in 2030, all crops.
Closing the gap: hunger
World population at risk of hunger
$4 bn more per year in R&D could
deliver a 30% reduction in risk of
hunger by 2030 relative to
business as usual
Closing the gap: climate change mitigation
Non-CO2 emission reductions
MtCO₂e/year
2030 2050
Through R&D 291 497
Through technical mitigation 720 780
Total 1,011 1,277
Trajectory consistent with stabilizing climate below 2°C 1,000
CO2 emission reductions and sequestration
MtCO₂e/year
2030 2050
Through less land use change 111 248
Through technical mitigation 1,150 1,360
Total 1,261 1,608
Trajectory consistent with stabilizing climate below 2°C 100 2,300
Closing the gap: economic benefits of R&D
Boost to per capita
incomes in the Global
South
Reduction in global
food commodity
prices
Boost to GDP in the
Global South
To sum up…
The estimated gap that needs to be closed to meet the hunger target and climate
trajectories by 2030 is:
$4 bn in
R&D investment
+ $6.5 bn in
technical climate-
= $10.5 bn
annually to 2030
smart options
Predicted economic benefits to the Global South: $1.7
trillion per year by 2030.
Other important policies for food security and
climate change adaptation and mitigation
Agriculture value
Finance
chains
Extension Gender-responsive policies and investments
Social protection Water management
Carbon payments Smart subsidies
Some unanswered questions
How can agricultural land use change be
reversed by 2050 while ending hunger?
Sub-Saharan African population at risk of hunger
What other investments and policies are
needed end hunger in sub-Saharan Africa?
How can climate smart agriculture become
more affordable to adopt?
How can the benefits and the burden be
equitably shared?
Conclusions
Climate change is pushing agriculture and food systems well beyond historical experience
Impacts on agriculture and food security are negative overall, but will vary by commodity,
region, time, and ability of producers (and consumers) to respond and adapt
Ability to respond and adapt depends on individual decisions as well as public policies and
investments
Impacts are projected to be greatest in low- and middle-income countries that are least
able to respond and adapt
Increased public investments on Ag R&D and climate-smart farming systems can
substantially reduce the impacts of climate change on food security and GHG emissions
and generate large economic benefits
