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Bayes Theorem is a key concept in probability theory that allows for updating beliefs based on new evidence, first formulated by Reverend Thomas Bayes in 1763 and popularized by Pierre-Simon Laplace in the 19th century. The theorem involves calculating posterior probabilities using prior probabilities and likelihoods, with applications in fields such as medical diagnosis, spam filtering, machine learning, and financial modeling. However, its effectiveness depends on the quality of data and the choice of prior probabilities, which can lead to overfitting if not handled properly.

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20 views8 pages

Nawalmathsppt

Bayes Theorem is a key concept in probability theory that allows for updating beliefs based on new evidence, first formulated by Reverend Thomas Bayes in 1763 and popularized by Pierre-Simon Laplace in the 19th century. The theorem involves calculating posterior probabilities using prior probabilities and likelihoods, with applications in fields such as medical diagnosis, spam filtering, machine learning, and financial modeling. However, its effectiveness depends on the quality of data and the choice of prior probabilities, which can lead to overfitting if not handled properly.

Uploaded by

nawal
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Introduction to

Bayes Theorem
Bayes Theorem is a fundamental concept in probability theory,
providing a framework for updating our beliefs in light of new evidence.
Brief History of Bayes
Theorem
1 1763
Reverend Thomas Bayes, an English mathematician, first
formulated the theorem, though it wasn't published until
after his death.

2 19th Century
Pierre-Simon Laplace extended and popularized Bayes' work,
leading to its widespread use in various fields.

3 20th Century
The development of computers and statistical software
propelled the practical application of Bayes Theorem.
Defining Bayes Theorem
P(A|B) Posterior Probability: Probability
of event A given that event B
has occurred

P(B|A) Likelihood: Probability of event


B given that event A has
occurred

P(A) Prior Probability: Probability of


event A before observing event
B

P(B) Probability of event B


Conditional Probability
Explained
Probability of A given B Intuitive Example
It refers to the likelihood of Imagine you're testing for a
event A happening, assuming disease. The conditional
that event B has already probability would be the
happened. This is the core chance of having the disease
concept behind Bayes given a positive test result.
Theorem.
Applying Bayes Theorem
in Practice
Identify Events
Clearly define the events involved, including the event you're
interested in predicting and the evidence you have.

Gather Data
Collect relevant data about the events and their probabilities,
including prior probabilities, likelihoods, and any existing
knowledge.

Apply the Formula


Plug in the values into the Bayes Theorem equation to calculate
the posterior probability of the event you're interested in.
Bayes Theorem in Real-
World Applications
1 Medical Diagnosis 2 Spam Filtering
Predicting the probability of Classifying emails as spam
a disease based on or not spam based on
symptoms and test results. keywords and other
features.

3 Machine Learning 4 Financial Modeling


Building algorithms that Assessing the risk and
learn from data and make return of investments based
predictions, such as image on historical data and
recognition and natural market trends.
language processing.
Limitations and Assumptions of Bayes Theo
Data Quality Prior Information Overfitting

The accuracy of the posterior The choice of prior probabilities can If the data is not representative, the
probability heavily relies on the significantly influence the results, model can overfit to the training data,
quality and relevance of the prior making it crucial to have a well- resulting in poor generalization to
probabilities and likelihoods. informed prior distribution. new data.
Conclusion .
Bayes Theorem offers a powerful framework for updating beliefs in the
face of new evidence. Understanding its nuances, limitations, and
applications is essential for harnessing its potential in various fields.

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