Probability

Probability
• Probability defines the likelihood of occurrence of
an event. There are many real-life situations in
which we may have to predict the outcome of an
event. We may be sure or not sure of the results of
an event. In such cases, we say that there is a
probability of this event to occur or not occur.
Probability generally has great applications in
games, in business to make probability-based
predictions, and also probability has extensive
applications in this new area of artificial intelligence.
• The probability of an event can be calculated by
probability formula by simply dividing the
favorable number of outcomes by the total
number of possible outcomes. The value of the
probability of an event to happen can lie between
0 and 1 because the favorable number of
outcomes can never cross the total number of
outcomes. Also, the favorable number of outcomes
cannot be negative. Let us discuss the basics of
probability in detail in the following sections.
 What is Probability?
• Probability can be defined as the ratio of the
number of favorable outcomes to the total
number of outcomes of an event. For an
experiment having 'n' number of outcomes,
the number of favorable outcomes can be
denoted by x. The formula to calculate the
probability of an event is as follows.
• Probability(Event) = Favorable Outcomes/Total
Outcomes = x/n
• Let us check a simple application of probability to
understand it better. Suppose we have to predict
about the happening of rain or not. The answer to
this question is either "Yes" or "No". There is a
likelihood to rain or not rain. Here we can apply
probability. Probability is used to predict the
outcomes for the tossing of coins, rolling of dice, or
drawing a card from a pack of playing cards.
• The probability is classified into theoretical
probability and experimental probability.
Terminology of Probability Theory
• The following terms in probability help in a better
understanding of the concepts of probability.
• Experiment: A trial or an operation conducted to
produce an outcome is called an experiment.
• Sample Space: All the possible outcomes of an
experiment together constitute a sample space.
For example, the sample space of tossing a coin is
head and tail.
• Favorable Outcome: An event that has
produced the desired result or expected event
is called a favorable outcome. For example,
when we roll two dice, the possible/favorable
outcomes of getting the sum of numbers on
the two dice as 4 are (1,3), (2,2), and (3,1).
• Trial: A trial denotes doing a random experiment.
• Random Experiment: An experiment that has a
well-defined set of outcomes is called a random
experiment. For example, when we toss a coin,
we know that we would get ahead or tail, but we
are not sure which one will appear.
• Event: The total number of outcomes of a
random experiment is called an event.
• Equally Likely Events: Events that have the
same chances or probability of occurring are
called equally likely events. The outcome of
one event is independent of the other. For
example, when we toss a coin, there are equal
chances of getting a head or a tail.
• Exhaustive Events: When the set of all
outcomes of an experiment is equal to the
sample space, we call it an exhaustive event.
• Mutually Exclusive Events: Events that cannot
happen simultaneously are called mutually
exclusive events. For example, the climate can
be either hot or cold. We cannot experience
the same weather simultaneously.
 Probability Formula
• The probability formula defines the likelihood
of the happening of an event. It is the ratio of
favorable outcomes to the total favorable
outcomes. The probability formula can be
expressed as,
 Different Probability Formulas
• Probability formula with addition
rule: Whenever an event is the union
of two other events, say A and B,
then
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B)
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B)
• Probability formula with the complementary
rule: Whenever an event is the complement
of another event, specifically, if A is an event,
then P(not A) = 1 - P(A) or P(A') = 1 - P(A).
P(A) + P(A′) = 1.
• Probability formula with the conditional rule:
When event A is already known to have
occurred and the probability of event B is
desired, then P(B, given A) = P(A and B), P(A,
given B). It can be vice versa in the case of
event B.
P(B∣A) = P(A∩B)/P(A)
• Probability formula with multiplication rule:
Whenever an event is the intersection of two
other events, that is, events A and B need to
occur simultaneously. Then P(A and B) =
P(A)⋅P(B).
P(A∩B) = P(A)⋅P(B∣A)
Example 1:
• Find the probability of getting a number less
than 5 when a dice is rolled by using the
probability formula.
Solution:
• To find:
Probability of getting a number less than 5
Given: Sample space = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Getting a number less than 5 = {1,2,3,4}
Therefore, n(S) = 6
n(A) = 4
Using Probability Formula,
P(A) = (n(A))/(n(s))
p(A) = 4/6
m = 2/3
• Answer: The probability of getting a number less than 5 is
2/3.
 Example 2:
• What is the probability of getting a sum of 9
when two dice are thrown?
Solution:
• There is a total of 36 possibilities when we throw two
dice.
To get the desired outcome i.e., 9, we can have the
following favorable outcomes.
(4,5),(5,4),(6,3)(3,6). There are 4 favorable outcomes.
Probability of an event P(E) = (Number of favorable
outcomes) ÷ (Total outcomes in a sample space)
Probability of getting number 9 = 4 ÷ 36 = 1/9
• Answer: Therefore the probability of getting a sum of
9 is 1/9.
 Probability Tree Diagram
• A tree diagram in probability is a visual
representation that helps in finding the
possible outcomes or the probability of any
event occurring or not occurring. The tree
diagram for the toss of a coin given below
helps in understanding the possible outcomes
when a coin is tossed and thus in finding the
probability of getting a head or tail when a
coin is tossed.
Tree Diagram for the Toss of a Coin
 Types of Probability
• There can be different perspectives or types of
probabilities based on the nature of the
outcome or the approach followed while
finding the probability of an event happening.
The four types of probabilities are,
• Classical Probability
• Empirical Probability
• Subjective Probability
• Axiomatic Probability
 Classical Probability
• Classical probability, often referred to as the
"priori" or "theoretical probability", states that
in an experiment where there are B equally
likely outcomes, and event X has exactly A of
these outcomes, then the probability of X is
A/B, or P(X) = A/B. For example, when a fair die
is rolled, there are six possible outcomes that
are equally likely. That means, there is a 1/6
probability of rolling each number on the die.
 Empirical Probability
• The empirical probability or the experimental
perspective evaluates probability through
thought experiments. For example, if a weighted
die is rolled, such that we don't know which side
has the weight, then we can get an idea for the
probability of each outcome by rolling the die
number of times and calculating the proportion
of times the die gives that outcome and thus find
the probability of that outcome.
 Subjective Probability
• Subjective probability considers an individual's
own belief of an event occurring. For example,
the probability of a particular team winning a
football match on a fan's opinion is more
dependent upon their own belief and feeling
and not on a formal mathematical calculation.
 Axiomatic Probability
• In axiomatic probability, a set of rules or axioms by
Kolmogorov are applied to all the types. The chances of
occurrence or non-occurrence of any event can be
quantified by the applications of these axioms, given as,
• The smallest possible probability is zero, and the largest
is one.
• An event that is certain has a probability equal to one.
• Any two mutually exclusive events cannot occur
simultaneously, while the union of events says only one
of them can occur.
Finding the Probability of an Event
• In an experiment, the probability of an event
is the possibility of that event occurring. The
probability of any event is a value between
(and including) "0" and "1".
 Events in Probability
• In probability theory, an event is a set of
outcomes of an experiment or a subset of the
sample space.
• If P(E) represents the probability of an event E,
then, we have,
• P(E) = 0 if and only if E is an impossible event.
• P(E) = 1 if and only if E is a certain event.
• 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1.
• Suppose, we are given two events, "A" and "B", then the
probability of event A, P(A) > P(B) if and only if event "A"
is more likely to occur than the event "B". Sample
space(S) is the set of all of the possible outcomes of an
experiment and n(S) represents the number of outcomes
in the sample space.
• P(E) = n(E)/n(S)
• P(E’) = (n(S) - n(E))/n(S) = 1 - (n(E)/n(S))
• E’ represents that the event will not occur.
• Therefore, now we can also conclude that, P(E) + P(E’) = 1
 Coin Toss Probability
• Let us now look into the probability of tossing
a coin. Quite often in games like cricket, for
making a decision as to who would bowl or
bat first, we sometimes use the tossing of a
coin and decide based on the outcome of the
toss. Let us check as to how we can use the
concept of probability in the tossing of a single
coin. Further, we shall also look into the
tossing of two and three coming respectively.
 Tossing a Coin
• A single coin on tossing has two outcomes, a head,
and a tail. The concept of probability which is the
ratio of favorable outcomes to the total number of
outcomes can be used to find the probability of
getting the head and the probability of getting a
tail.
• Total number of possible outcomes = 2; Sample
Space = {H, T}; H: Head, T: Tail
• P(H) = Number of heads/Total outcomes = 1/2
• P(T)= Number of Tails/ Total outcomes = 1/2
 Tossing Two Coins
• In the process of tossing two coins, we have a total of four
outcomes. The probability formula can be used to find the
probability of two heads, one head, no head, and a similar
probability can be calculated for the number of tails. The
probability calculations for the two heads are as follows.
• Total number of outcomes = 4; Sample Space = {(H, H), (H, T), (T, H),
(T, T)}
• P(2H) = P(0 T) = Number of outcome with two heads/Total
Outcomes = 1/4
• P(1H) = P(1T) = Number of outcomes with only one head/Total
Outcomes = 2/4 = 1/2
• P(0H) = (2T) = Number of outcome with two heads/Total Outcomes
= 1/4
 Tossing Three Coins
• The number of total outcomes on tossing three coins simultaneously is
equal to 23 = 8. For these outcomes, we can find the probability of getting
one head, two heads, three heads, and no head. A similar probability can
also be calculated for the number of tails.
• Total number of outcomes = 23 = 8 Sample Space = {(H, H, H), (H, H, T), (H,
T, H), (T, H, H), (T, T, H), (T, H, T), (H, T, T), (T, T, T)}
• P(0H) = P(3T) = Number of outcomes with no heads/Total Outcomes = 1/8
• P(1H) = P(2T) = Number of Outcomes with one head/Total Outcomes = 3/8
• P(2H) = P(1T) = Number of outcomes with two heads /Total Outcomes =
3/8
• P(3H) = P(0T) = Number of outcomes with three heads/Total Outcomes =
1/8
 Dice Roll Probability
• Many games use dice to decide the moves of
players across the games. A dice has six possible
outcomes and the outcomes of a dice is a game
of chance and can be obtained by using the
concepts of probability. Some games also use two
dice, and there are numerous probabilities that
can be calculated for outcomes using two dice.
Let us now check the outcomes, their
probabilities for one dice and two dice
respectively.
 Rolling One Dice
• The total number of outcomes on rolling a die is 6, and
the sample space is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Here we shall
compute the following few probabilities to help in better
understanding the concept of probability on rolling one
dice.
• P(Even Number) = Number of even number
outcomes/Total Outcomes = 3/6 = 1/2
• P(Odd Number) = Number of odd number
outcomes/Total Outcomes = 3/6 = 1/2
• P(Prime Number) = Number of prime number
outcomes/Total Outcomes = 3/6 = 1/2
 Rolling Two Dice
• The total number of outcomes on rolling two
dice is 62 = 36. The following image shows the
sample space of 36 outcomes on rolling two
dice.
Sample Space for Tossing Two Coins
• Let us check a few probabilities of the outcomes from two
dice. The probabilities are as follows.
• Probability of getting a doublet(Same number) = 6/36 = 1/6
• Probability of getting a number 3 on at least one dice =
11/36
• Probability of getting a sum of 7 = 6/36 = 1/6
• As we see, when we roll a single die, there are 6
possibilities. When we roll two dice, there are 36
possibilities. When we roll 3 dice we get 216 possibilities.
So a general formula to represent the number of outcomes
on rolling 'n' dice is 6n.
 Probability of Drawing Cards
• A deck containing 52 cards is grouped into
four suits of clubs, diamonds, hearts, and
spades. Each of the clubs, diamonds, hearts,
and spades have 13 cards each, which sum up
to 52. Now let us discuss the probability of
drawing cards from a pack. The symbols on
the cards are shown below. Spades and clubs
are black cards. Hearts and diamonds are red
cards.
Sample Space of Playing Cards
• The 13 cards in each suit are ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, jack,
queen, king. In these, the jack, the queen, and the king are called
face cards. We can understand the card probability from the
following examples.
• The probability of drawing a black card is P(Black card) = 26/52 =
1/2
• The probability of drawing a hearts card is P(Hearts) = 13/52 = 1/4
• The probability of drawing a face card is P(Face card) = 12/52 =
3/13
• The probability of drawing a card numbered 4 is P(4) = 4/52 = 1/13
• The probability of drawing a red card numbered 4 is P(4 Red) =
2/52 = 1/26
 Probability Theorems
• The following theorems of probability are
helpful to understand the applications of
probability and also perform the numerous
calculations involving probability.
• Theorem 1: The sum of the probability of
happening of an event and not happening of
an event is equal to 1. P(A)+P(¯A)=1
• Theorem 2: The probability of an impossible
event or the probability of an event not
happening is always equal to 0. P(ϕ)=0P(ϕ)=0
• Theorem 3: The probability of a sure event is
always equal to 1. P(A) = 1
• Theorem 4: The probability of happening of
any event always lies between 0 and 1.
0 < P(A) < 1
• Theorem 5: If there are two events A and B,
we can apply the formula of the union of two
sets and we can derive the formula for the
probability of happening of event A or event B
as follows.
• P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)
−P(A∩B)
• Also for two mutually exclusive events A and
B, we have P( A U B) = P(A) + P(B)
 Counting Techniques
• Product Rule
Permutations
Factorial
Combination
 Assessment 2
1. How many even four – digit numbers can be
formed from the digits 0, 1, 2, 5, 6 and 9 if each
digit can be used only once?
2. A delegation of 4 students is selected each year
from a college to attend the National Students
Association annual meeting . In how many ways
can the delegation be chosen if there are twelve
eligible students and two of them are married
and will only attend the meeting together.
 Assessment 2
3. In how many ways can 12 basketball players
be distributed into 3 teams so that each team
contains 4 basketball players?
4. Your neighbour has 2 children. He picks one of
them at random and comes by your house; he
brings a boy named Joe (his son). What is the
probability that Joe’s sibling is a brother?
 Assessment 2
5. In a lottery, 10,000 tickets are sold at $1 each
with a price of $7500for one winner. What is
the average result for each bettor?
6. A certain type of missile hits its target with
probability 0.30. How many missiles should be
fired so that there is at least an 80%
probability of hitting a target?
 Assessment 2
7. Box A contains 8 items of which 3 are defective,
and box B contains 5 items of which 2 are defective
. An item is drawn at random form each box. What
is the probability that one item is defective and
one not?
8. In a certain college, 4% of the men and 1% of the
women are taller than 6 feet. Furthermore , 60% of
the students are women. Now if a student is
selected at random and is taller than 6 feet, what is
the probability that the student is a woman?