Probability
Session
Introduction to Probability
Relationship between Events
Independent Events
Tools for Organizing Probability
Introduction to Probability
Overview, Terms, Examples
Overview
• Probability is the measure of how
likely an event is to occur. It is a
branch of mathematics that deals
with the study of uncertainty and
randomness.
• Probability is expressed as a number
between 0 (impossible event) and 1
(certain event).
Overview
1. Probability helps in making
predictions, understanding trends,
and analyzing data effectively.
2. It provides a framework to handle
uncertainty and aids in decision-
making in fields like business,
medicine, and engineering.
Overview
1. Weather forecasting: Predicting
the chance of rain.
2. Sports analysis: Calculating the
likelihood of a team winning.
3. Finance: Assessing the risk of
investments.
Terms
1. Experiment:
A process that leads to a result or
outcome.
Example 1: Rolling a six-sided die.
Example 2: Flipping a coin.
2. Outcome:
A possible result of an experiment.
Example 1: Rolling a "3" on a die.
Example 2: Getting "heads" on a coin
toss.
Terms
3. Sample Space (S):
The set of all possible outcomes of an
experiment.
Example 1: For rolling a die,
S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
Example 2: For flipping a coin,
S={Heads, Tails}
4. Event:
A subset of the sample space,
representing outcomes of interest.
Example 1: Rolling an even number on a
die, {2,4,6}
Equation
• The probability of an event A is given by:
• Where:
• Favourable outcomes: Outcomes that
satisfy the condition of the event.
• Total number of outcomes: All possible
outcomes in the sample space.
EXAMPLES
EXAMPLES
EXAMPLES
Equation
• The complement of probability of an event
A is given by:
• Where:
• = The Probability of the Opposite of
event A.
• P(A) = The Probability of Event A
EXAMPLES
Expressions
• In the analysis of probability,
understanding how to represent and
organize likelihoods effectively is
essential.
• Probability can be expressed using
fractions, decimals, percentages, and
ratios
Fractions
• Probability as a fraction is expressed as
the ratio of favourable outcomes to the
total number of possible outcomes.
• Rolling a 6 on a standard die:
Decimals
1. The Probability that an event will occur
• Probabilities can also be expressed as
is 1
decimals, offering a continuous range
2. The Probability that an event will not
for values between 0 and 1.
occur is 0
• The probability of flipping a coin and
landing heads:
Percentages
• Probabilities expressed as percentages
represent the likelihood out of 100.
• Probability of drawing a heart from a
standard deck of cards:
Ratios
1. Favorable outcomes (rolling an even
• Represent probabilities as a comparison number): {2,4,6}, which are 3 outcomes.
of favourable to unfavourable outcomes. 2. Unfavorable outcomes (rolling an odd
• Probability of rolling an even number on number): {1,3,5} which are also 3
a die: outcomes.
Relationship Between Events
Forms, Examples
Mutually-
Exclusive
• Events that cannot happen at
the same time.
• Example 1: Rolling a "3" or a "5"
on a die.
• Example 2: Tossing a coin and
getting "heads" or "tails."
Complementary
• Events where one happens if and only
if the other does not.
• Example 1:
• Event A: Rolling an even number;
• Complement Ac: Rolling an odd
number.
• Example 2:
• Event A: Rain tomorrow;
• Complement Ac: No rain tomorrow.
Independent
• Events where the occurrence of
one does not affect the other.
• Example 1: Tossing a coin and
rolling a die.
• Example 2: Drawing a card,
replacing it, and drawing another
card.
Dependent
• Events where the outcome of one
event affects the outcome of another
event.
• Example 1: Drawing cards without
replacement
• Example 2: Picking marbles from a
bag without replacement
Independent Events
Introduction, Examples
Introduction
1. Rolling a die and flipping a
coin:
The outcome of the die does not
affect the coin flip.
2. Drawing a marble, replacing it,
and drawing again:
The replacement ensures the
second draw is independent.
Equation
• The Total Outcomes of 2 independent
Events is given by:
• Where:
• Event A has m possible outcomes,
and
• Event B has n possible outcomes,
• This enables us to determine the total
sample space
EXAMPLES
EXAMPLES
EXAMPLES
Equation
• The probability of 2 independent Events
is given by:
• Where:
• = The Probability of both events A
and B happening simultaneously.
• P(A) = The Probability of Event A
• P(B) = The Probability of Event B
EXAMPLES
EXAMPLES
EXAMPLES
EXAMPLES
EXAMPLES
EXAMPLES
EXAMPLES
EXAMPLES
Tools for Organizing Probability
Introduction, Tree Diagrams, Venn Diagrams
Introduction
• In the analysis of probability,
understanding how to represent and
organize likelihoods effectively is
essential.
• Probability can be organized using
tools such as tree diagrams, tables,
and Venn diagrams.
Tree Diagrams
• Clearly visualize sequential events and
their probabilities.
• Example: Drawing two cards from a deck
without replacement.
• Steps:
• Identify each event and its possible
outcomes.
• Branch outcomes from each event.
• Label branches with probabilities.
EXAMPLES
3
6 Even Number
1
Head
2
3
6 Odd Number
3
1 6 Even Number
2 Tail
3
6 Odd Number
EXAMPLES
EXAMPLES
Venn Diagrams
Coffee Tea
• Illustrates intersections, unions, and 1 1 1
complements of events. 2 4 2
• Example: Probability of liking coffee or tea.
• Steps:
• Draw circles for each event.
• Overlap circles to show shared
elements.
• Calculate regions of interest
EXAMPLES
Even Tail
Number
3 3 1
6 12 2
EXAMPLES
EXAMPLES
Examples
Questions & Answers
EXAMPLES
EXAMPLES
EXAMPLES
3 Blue
7
Blue
3 4
7 7
Pink
4
7
3 Blue
Pink 7
4
7
Pink
EXAMPLES
EXAMPLES
EXAMPLES
EXAMPLES
EXAMPLES
