Modelling and Prediction of

Maximum Power Point Tracking

Control for Solar Energy System

Presented by
Zeinab Gowaly

Supervisors
Prof. Dr.Mohamed Ahmed Fkirin
Dr. Emad Abdelsattar Elsheikh
 Introduction

• Modeling and predicting solar energy systems is crucial to

achieving maximum power point tracking control. In
recent years, the demand for renewable energy sources
has significantly increased, driven by the need for
sustainable and environmentally friendly power
generation.

• Among these, solar PV systems have emerged as a

prominent solution, due to their ability to harness solar
However, the performance of PV systems is highly
dependent on atmospheric conditions, which can
change rapidly, leading to fluctuations in the power
output

• While traditional MPPT methods such as Perturb

and Observe (P&O) and Incremental Conductance
(INC) have been widely used, they often face
limitations such as slow convergence, steady-state
oscillations, and suboptimal performance under
complex environmental conditions.
• This thesis focuses on the modeling and prediction of
Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) control
strategies to enhance the energy harvesting capability
of solar energy systems. Accurate prediction of the
maximum power point (MPP) is essential to address
challenges posed by rapidly changing irradiance and
temperature, significantly impacting PV system
performance. This thesis focuses on designing and
implementing these two dynamic MPPT algorithms,
LSTM-ANN and LSTM-FLC, to effectively manage
• generation due to fluctuating atmospheric
conditions, ensuring that the PV system
consistently operates at its optimal power point.
The proposed controllers are evaluated and
compared to LSTM-Proportional Integral (PI) and
traditional MPPT methods, including ANNs,
Fuzzy Logic, and hybrid ANN–Fuzzy.
• The performance metrics used in the evaluation
include tracking efficiency, response time, and
system stability. The simulation results with real-
time data demonstrate that the LSTM-optimized
controllers significantly outperform conventional
methods, particularly in adapting to sudden
changes in irradiance and temperature
 Problem Statements

• Dynamic Environmental Variability in Solar PV

Systems

• Solar photovoltaic (PV) systems are highly sensitive to

rapidly changing atmospheric conditions, such as irradiance
and temperature, leading to fluctuations in power output.
Traditional Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT)
methods struggle to maintain optimal performance under
these dynamic conditions, resulting in energy losses, slow
convergence, and steady-state oscillations.
 2. Limitations of Conventional MPPT
Techniques

• Established MPPT approaches, such as Perturb and Observe

(P&O) and Incremental Conductance (INC), exhibit suboptimal
tracking efficiency, delayed response times, and instability
under partial shading or rapidly varying weather conditions.
Additionally, existing AI-based MPPT methods (e.g., standalone
Artificial Neural Networks or Fuzzy Logic
• Controllers lack the adaptability required for real-time dynamic
adjustments.
 3. Need for Advanced Predictive and Adaptive
Control

• There is a critical need for a robust, data-driven

MPPT framework to accurately model solar power
behavior and predict optimal operating points in real
time. Current hybrid techniques combining AI and
control strategies (e.g., ANN-FLC) still face
challenges in handling non-linearities and sudden
environmental changes, necessitating an improved
predictive control mechanism.
 Main Contributions

1. Development of an LSTM-Enhanced MPPT

Framework

 A novel LSTM-based Artificial Neural Network (LSTM-

ANN) MPPT algorithm is proposed to improve
prediction accuracy and dynamic response under varying
weather conditions.
 An advanced LSTM-Fuzzy Logic Controller (LSTM-
FLC) hybrid model is introduced to enhance adaptability
and stability in real-time solar power tracking .
 2. Real-Time Adaptive Control for
Dynamic Conditions
 The proposed LSTM-optimized controllers
dynamically adjust to rapid irradiance and temperature
fluctuations, minimizing power oscillations and
improving tracking efficiency.
 The integration of LSTM’s temporal learning
capabilities with fuzzy logic’s rule-based decision-
making ensures robust performance in both steady-
state and transient conditions.
 3. Comparative Performance Evaluation
Against Conventional Methods
A comprehensive simulation study compares the
proposed LSTM-ANN and LSTM-FLC methods
against traditional MPPT techniques (P&O, INC),
standalone AI methods (ANN, FLC), and hybrid ANN-
FLC approaches.

• Key metrics such as tracking efficiency, convergence

speed, and stability are analyzed using real-time solar data,
demonstrating superior performance of the proposed
techniques.
 4. Validation of Enhanced Energy Extraction

 Experimental results confirm that the LSTM-based MPPT

controllers achieve higher energy extraction efficiency under
partial shading and rapidly changing environmental conditions
compared to conventional and hybrid methods.
•By addressing the limitations of existing MPPT strategies, this research
contributes to more efficient, stable, and adaptive solar energy systems,
facilitating better integration of renewable energy into power grids.
•
 Research Objectives
• This research focuses on developing a hybrid LSTM-based
MPPT controller that combines ANNs and FLC to enhance the
accuracy, speed, and efficiency of power tracking in solar PV
systems utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) and hybrid
approaches, such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and
Fuzzy Logic Controllers (FLCs). While these methods improve
tracking efficiency and adaptability, many studies lack
comprehensive evaluations under diverse and long-term
environmental conditions,
 Research
Objectives
and some methods face challenges in real-time
implementation due to their computational complexity.
This research aims to address these gaps by developing a
dynamic MPPT controller that integrates Long Short-Term
Memory (LSTM) neural networks with FLC.
The primary objective of this thesis is to model, predict, and
enhance the efficiency of MPPT control for solar PV systems
using LSTM-based deep learning techniques.
 • The specific objectives are

• Develop and implement LSTM-ANN and LSTM-FLC MPPT

controllers for real-time power tracking.

• Compare the efficiency, response time, and stability of the proposed

controllers with conventional MPPT methods (P&O, INC, ANN, and
Fuzzy Logic).

• • Evaluate the effectiveness of the controllers under varying

irradiance and temperature conditions.

• Minimize oscillations and power losses, ensuring that the system

consistently operates at its maximum efficiency.
 Research Methodology
Overview
•This study employs a simulation-based approach using MATLAB/Simulink to achieve the
research objectives.
•The methodology involves:
 System Modeling: Developing a stand-alone PV system with a DC-DC boost converter
and MPPT controllers.
 Performance Evaluation: Comparing the proposed models with traditional MPPT methods
based on:
 Tracking accuracy (%), Response time (ms), Steady-state oscillations, and System
efficiency (%)
• MPPT Controller Design: Implementing LSTM-ANN and LSTM-FLC hybrid controllers
for improved power tracking.
 P&O Method

• • One of the simplest and widely used MPPT

algorithms.
• • Works by perturbing the voltage and
observing the power output.
• • If power increases, the perturbation
continues in the same direction, otherwise, it
reverses.
• • Drawback: Oscillations around the MPP
leading to power losses.
 Incremental Conductance
Method

• • Uses the derivative of power with

respect to voltage to find the MPP.
• • More accurate than P&O in rapidly
changing conditions.
• • Can quickly track MPP without
oscillations.
• • Requires more complex calculations
than P&O.
 AI-based MPPT

• • Uses machine learning or fuzzy logic to

predict MPP.
• • Can adapt to varying environmental
conditions.
• • Neural networks and fuzzy controllers
improve accuracy and efficiency.
• • More computationally intensive but
offers better tracking performance.
 Modeling of Solar Energy
System

• • Mathematical models are used to

simulate PV system behavior.
• • Models include irradiance,
temperature, and panel characteristics.
• • Helps design and optimize MPPT
controllers.
 Prediction in MPPT

• • AI techniques such as deep learning are

used for MPP prediction.
• • Historical data is analyzed to anticipate
changes in irradiance and temperature.
• • Allows for faster and more accurate
MPPT response.
 System Components

• • PV Panels: Convert sunlight into

electricity.
• • DC-DC Converter: Adjusts voltage and
current to track MPP.
• • MPPT Controller: Implements MPPT
algorithm to optimize power output.
 PV Panel Characteristics

• • Power-Voltage (P-V) and Current-

Voltage (I-V) curves define the behavior
of a solar panel.
• • MPP is the optimal operating point
where power output is maximized.
• • Affected by irradiance and temperature
changes.
 DC-DC Converters

• • Types of converters used in MPPT:

• - Buck Converter (Step-down)
• - Boost Converter (Step-up)
• - Buck-Boost Converter (Voltage
adaptation)
• • Helps optimize power transfer from PV
panel to the load.
 MPPT Algorithm
Implementation

• • Implemented in microcontrollers or
DSPs.
• • Requires real-time measurement of
voltage and current.
• • Uses control algorithms to adjust duty
cycle of DC-DC converters.
 Simulation Techniques

• • MATLAB/Simulink used for MPPT

algorithm simulation.
• • Allows testing different MPPT
strategies under varying conditions.
• • Verifies system stability and efficiency
before implementation.
 Experimental Setup

• • Hardware implementation using PV

panel, sensors, microcontroller, and DC-
DC converter.
• • Testing conducted under different
environmental conditions.
• • Performance comparison with different
MPPT techniques.
 Performance Analysis

• • MPPT efficiency is evaluated based on:

• - Power extraction efficiency
• - Speed of tracking MPP
• - Stability under varying conditions
 Comparative Study

• • Comparison of MPPT techniques based

on:
• - Efficiency
• - Response time
• - Complexity and cost
 Case Studies

• • Real-world applications of MPPT in

solar power systems.
• • Implementation in residential,
commercial, and industrial sectors.
 Environmental Impact

• • Contribution of MPPT in reducing

energy wastage.
• • Enhancing the efficiency of solar energy
systems.
• • Role in promoting green and
sustainable energy sources.
 Economic Viability

• • Cost-benefit analysis of implementing

MPPT.
• • Payback period and return on
investment.
• • Economic feasibility for large-scale
solar farms.
 Future Trends

• • Emerging MPPT technologies using AI

and IoT.
• • Smart grid integration with solar power
systems.
• • Advancements in power electronics for
solar inverters.
 Challenges and Limitations

• • Computational complexity of AI-based

MPPT.
• • Cost implications of implementing
advanced tracking methods.
• • Need for high-speed sensors and
controllers.
 Conclusion

• • MPPT is essential for maximizing solar

energy utilization.
• • Different MPPT techniques offer trade-
offs in performance and complexity.
• • Future research focuses on AI-based
MPPT for higher efficiency.
 Future Work

• • Development of hybrid MPPT

strategies.
• • Integration of cloud computing for
predictive MPPT.
• • Enhancing MPPT adaptability for
extreme weather conditions.
 References

• • List of sources and citations.

 Acknowledgments

• • Gratitude to supervisors, team, and

funding sources.
 Appendix

• • Additional data, graphs, and

supplementary information.
 LSTM-ANN for MPPT

• • Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks

are a type of recurrent neural network (RNN)
used for time-series prediction.
• • Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are used
for pattern recognition and decision-making.
• • Combining LSTM with ANN helps in
predicting the maximum power point (MPP)
under varying conditions.
 LSTM-ANN Architecture

• • Input Layer: Solar irradiance,

temperature, voltage, and current.
• • LSTM Layers: Extract temporal
dependencies in power variations.
• • ANN Layers: Process extracted features
and predict optimal MPP.
• • Output Layer: Provides control signal
for MPPT.
 LSTM-ANN Advantages

• • Adaptability: Learns from past data to

improve MPP prediction.
• • Higher Accuracy: Reduces oscillations
and increases energy efficiency.
• • Robustness: Performs well in dynamic
weather conditions.
 LSTM-FLC for MPPT

• • Fuzzy Logic Controller (FLC) is used to

handle uncertainties in solar power
generation.
• • LSTM-FLC integrates deep learning with
fuzzy control for real-time MPPT
adjustments.
• • It enhances the stability and tracking
speed of MPPT systems.
 LSTM-FLC Architecture

• • LSTM Network: Predicts the solar

power variations.
• • Fuzzy Logic System: Uses predefined
fuzzy rules to adjust control actions.
• • Decision Output: Provides an optimized
MPPT control signal.
 Performance Comparison:
LSTM-ANN vs. LSTM-FLC

• • LSTM-ANN: Best suited for long-term

power trend prediction.
• • LSTM-FLC: More effective in handling
sudden variations and uncertainties.
• • Hybrid models combining both
approaches can further enhance MPPT
efficiency.