6.

CLIMATE CHANGE, IMPACT, ADAPTATION, AND MITIGATION IN ETHIOPIA

Climate of Ethiopia

• Due to proximity of the country to Equator, there is high solar radiation Energy.

• Route of high wind passage.

• Route of monsoonal moisture flow.

• Arid to tropical rainy to temperate climatic regime.

• High rainfall amount ( >2500 mm/year), with prolonged rainy season.

• Suitable climate for various living habitat.

April 23, 2025 1

Topography and Climatic features of Ethiopia
 Sources of fresh water for neighboring courtiers

 Climatic seasonality and variability

 Diversified agro climatic and ecological zones

 Diversified culture and ethnicities

April 23, 2025 2

• The climate of Ethiopia is influenced by altitude and latitude as well as
topographic features such as water bodies, highlands and valleys.

• Ethiopia lies near the equator, where the maximum heat of the Sun is received.

• The Sun is overhead twice a year in all parts of the country.

• The mean maximum temperature varies spatially and temporally.

• The lowest mean maximum temperature (10°C) occurs over the NW (Mt. Ras
Dashan) and central highlands, whereas the highest mean maximum temperature
(45°) is found over the Dankil Depression.
April 23, 2025 3
 Traditional Climate Classification:
Climate classification based on Altitude-Temperature

Daily Mean Temperature (ºC) Altitude (meters) Climate Class

 16 Over 3000 Wirch (Alpine)
13 – 20 2300 – 3000 Dega (Temperate)
16 – 24 1500 – 2300 Weina Dega (Subtropical)
16 – 28 800 – 1500 Quolla (Tropical)
 24 Below 800 Bereha (Desert)

April 23, 2025 4

 Köppen’s Climate Classification (After Lemma Gonfa)
Based on this methodology the climate of
Ethiopia has ten categories (Lemma Gonfa,
1996). These are:
 Bwh: Hot arid climate;
 Bsh: Hot semi-arid climate;
 Bsk: Cool semi-arid climate;
 Aw: Tropical rainy climate;
 Am: Tropical rain forest climate;
 Cwb: Warm temperate rainy climate I
(dry months in winter);
 Cfb: Warm temperate rainy climate II (all
months having some amount of rainfall);
 Aws: Tropical climate (criteria for both Figure 2: Modified Köppen’s Climate Classification
summer and winter dry is met);
 Cws: Warm Temperate climate (criteria With this classification a large portion of the
for both winter and summer dry is met); Lowlands in the Northeast and Southeast fall
and under hot arid & semi-arid climates (Bwh &
 H: Highland climate. (Figure 1.3.3a). Bsh). Most of western Ethiopia as well as the
Highlands of the South and the East have
tropical rainy climate (Aw); while the
Highlands in Southwest have warm &
tropical rainy climates (Am, Cwb & Cfb).
April 23, 2025 5
 Thornthwaite’s Classification (After Lemma Gonfa, 1996)
Using this methodology, simply known as
moisture/aridity index, Ethiopia has five
moisture zones: humid, moist sub-humid, dry
sub-humid, semi-arid, arid climates (Lemma
Gonfa, 1996) (Figure 3). With this
classification a large portion of the
Highlands of the country fall under humid
and dry sub-humid climates. The Lowlands
to the east and the southeast are arid while
the transition zones in between these
Lowlands and Highlands are semi-arid. A
significant portion in the Afar Triangle is a
desert.

April 23, 2025 6

 Rainfall regime of Ethiopia (After Tesfaye Haile, 1987)
Uni-modal (Single-maxima): The wet period
extends from February/March to
October/November. However, the duration
of the wet period decreases from south to
north. This region covers the western half of
the country enclosed between latitudes 6°N
to 15°N and longitudes 33°E to 38°E).
Bi-modal type-1: In this regime, a small peak
occurs in April and a major one in August.
This type of climate is found between
latitudes 6°N to 15°N and longitudes 38°E to
44°E. It is for this rainfall regime that the
“three-seasons” definition is appropriate.
These are Bega (October to January of the Diffused - The region is characterized by
next year), Belg (March to May), and Kiremt irregular, meager and erratic rainfall. It
(June to September). covers the area near and around the Dallol
Bi-modal type-2 - This region is Depression and extends to the Red Sea
characterized by two distinct wet periods Coast.
separated by two distinct dry periods. The
peak rainfall months are April and October.
The region covers most of the Lowlands of
the South and Southeast (in between 35°E to
48°E and 3°N to 9°N grid).
April 23, 2025 7
 Agroclimatic Zones (NMSA 1996)
• This classification utilizes the concept of water balance, length of growing period and its
associated onset date, dependable length of growing period, and expected minimum
growing period at a given probability level.

• The country is divided into 53 distinct growing period zones. These growing period zones
could be grouped into three major agro-climatic zones;
 Areas without significant growing period (N),
 Areas with single growing period (S), and
 Areas with double growing period (D).

• On the basis of crop evaporative demand versus availability the number of distinct zones in
each major agroclimatic zone N, S and D are 5, 21 and 27 respectively.

• By combining growing period zones with temperature and moisture regimes these 53
distinct growing period zones are regrouped into 14 agroclimatic zones.

• This indicates
April 23, 2025 that Ethiopia has a vast climatic and agroclimatic resources base. 8
  Areas without significant
growing period (N),

 Areas with single growing

period (S), and

 Areas with double growing

period (D).

April 23, 2025 9

 Seasonal classification
• Meteorologically, a season is a period when an airmass characterized by homogeneous
temperature, relative humidity, wind, rainfall, and etc.,

• In high and mid-latitudes, seasons are classified as winter, spring, summer and autumn, while
in low latitudes it is categorized as wet and dry seasons.

• In Ethiopia, the seasons are unique & are classified based on annual rainfall patterns.
• Based on the mean annual and mean monthly rainfall distributions, the rainfall regimes are
delineated and the types of seasons in Ethiopia are identified as
Bega (October-January)
Belg (February-May)
Kiremt (June-September)

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 Rainfall characteristics in Ethiopia

January-December

June-September

February-May

October-January

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April 23, 2025 12
April 23, 2025 13
 Seasonal rainfall variability as it is expressed as CV (%)

CV<20 represents low variability, CV values 20≤CV<30 represents moderate variable and CV >30 reveals high rainfall variability

April 23, 2025 14

 Inter-seasonal rainfall variations
under different global episodes

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April 23, 2025 16
April 23, 2025
Standardized Rainfall anomalies

-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0

1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
R² = 0.306626368126857

1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
All-Ethiopia standardized FMAM rainfall anomaly

2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
17
April 23, 2025 18
April 23, 2025 19
 Ethiopian vulnerability to Climate Change

• Ethiopia has a high degree of risk to hydro-meteorological hazards and natural disasters.

• Vulnerability is exacerbated due to high level of poverty and its dependence on key sectors
most likely effected by climate change: agriculture, water, tourism, and forestry.

• Ethiopia is at high-risk to natural disasters such as flooding as well as drought, its topographic
diversity and highly marginalized segments of the population, make vulnerable.

• Inadequate infrastructure to handle the increasing population are also impacting the
vulnerability to natural disaster sensitivity and climate change vulnerability.

April 23, 2025 20

 Ethiopian vulnerability to Climate Change

•Ethiopia is exposed to numerous hazards including droughts, floods, volcanoes, and earthquakes.

•Increasing urbanization in Ethiopia is putting pressure on existing infrastructure.

•Recurring droughts & floods have the most severe impact on Ethiopia’s population & the country has a
long history of droughts (high magnitude, frequency, & impact since the 1970s).

•The 2011 Horn of Africa drought left more than 4.5 million people in need of food assistance.
April 23, 2025 21
•Widespread death of livestock in the south and SE parts of the country.
 Ethiopian vulnerability to Climate Change

•For Ethiopia’s pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in drought prone areas, increasing aridity

and recurring drought conditions present the most significant climate-hazard.

•Southern and Eastern parts of Ethiopia, including Afar, Somali, Oromia regions, often experience

severe droughts and increased water scarcity.

•The successive drought and frequent floods have had a strong effect on poverty, food security,

livelihood status and the human capital of communities.

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 Key natural hazard statistics 1980-2020

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April 23, 2025 24
Hazard: The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical
event or trend or physical impact that may cause loss of life, injury, or other
health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure,
livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems, and environmental resources.

Exposure: The presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems,

environmental functions, services, and resources, infrastructure, or economic,
social, or cultural assets in places and settings that could be adversely
affected.

Vulnerability: degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope

with, adverse effects of climate change.
• Vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts and elements including
sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.
April 23, 2025 25
Impacts: the term impacts is used primarily to refer to the effects on natural and human
systems of extreme weather & climate events and of climate change.

• Impacts generally refer to effects on lives, livelihoods, health, ecosystems, economies,

societies, cultures, services, and infrastructure due to the interaction of climate changes
or hazardous climate events occurring within a specific time period and the vulnerability
of an exposed society or system.

• The impacts of climate change on geophysical systems, including floods, droughts, and
sea-level rise, are a subset of impacts called physical impacts.

Risk: The potential for consequences where something of value is at stake and where the
outcome is uncertain, recognizing the diversity of values.
• Risk is often represented as probability of occurrence of hazardous events or trends
multiplied by the impacts if these events or trends occur.
• Risk April
results
23, 2025
from the interaction of vulnerability, exposure, and hazard. 26
Adaptation: The process of adjustment to actual or expected
climate and its effects.

• In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid

harm or exploit beneficial opportunities.

• In some natural systems, human intervention may facilitate

adjustment to expected climate and its effects.

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April 23, 2025 28
 Climate-Change Impacts/Adaptation/Vulnerability for Crops
• The potential challenges from environmental change to our food systems are
substantial.

• Yields are reduced with increasing climate changes,

• Yield impacts are more negative in tropical vs temperate regions and they vary
substantially between crops.

• Yield variability is likely to increase over the forthcoming decades.

• There is substantial uncertainty in projected crop yield changes and the
implications of these on food prices arising through variations in crop.
April 23, 2025 29
Climate-Change Impacts/ Adaptation/ Vulnerability for Domestic Animals
• Livestock are the source of 33% of the protein in human diets and, especially in
developing countries, provide many other services such as traction, manure, risk
management, and income.
• The impact of climate change on livestock agriculture including;
• Feed-grain production, availability, and price
• Pastures and forage crop production and quality;
• Temperature increases and rainfall decreases have affected the grasses
• Animal production, health, and reproduction
• Disease and pest distribution
• Water scarcity and quality
• Biodiversity, loss of genetic and cultural diversity

April 23, 2025 30

 Adaptation to Climate Change
• Adaptation to climate change is unlikely to be achieved with a single strategy.
• An integrated, evidence-based, and transformative approach , which include
 animals housing,
reproduction,
nutrition,
health care, and
genetic changes
• Integrated grazing management.
• Raise regional appropriate animals
• Application of best practice and measures

April 23, 2025 31

• Droughts and floods have historically imposed heavy costs in Ethiopia.

• The projected impacts of climate change may affect the consequences of these
events, & could potentially hinder advancements in key development areas such
as food security, water resources management, health, & economic growth.

• In recognition of this fact, the government of Ethiopia has initiated activities to:
• determine vulnerability and adaptation priorities, while
• the donor community has provided support to facilitate mainstreaming of
adaptation considerations into development processes and
• increase resilience in the agriculture and food security sector.

April 23, 2025 32

However, a number of adaptation needs remain, including
• the need for more technical expertise in vulnerability and adaptation
assessment and
• implementation in sectors such as agriculture and food security,
water resources, and health;
• improved technical facility and technological capacity to provide
accurate and timely weather and climate forecasts;
• a strengthened institutional framework for dealing with climate
change; and
• enhanced coordination.

April 23, 2025 33

Climate Impacts and Vulnerability

• Observations indicate a rise in average temperature of about 1.3°C between 1960 and 2006.

• Major floods have been a common occurrence, leading to loss of life and property in numerous
parts of the country.

• Rising sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean influence the migration of the Intertropical
Convergence Zone and can further increase

• Variability in the timing and duration of rainfall seasons, and consequently cause frequent drought.

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April 23, 2025 35
 Projected Weather and Climate
While projections for Ethiopia vary across climate models, the majority of climate
models suggest the following:
• Median annual temperature will continue to increase through the 2090s.

• Although there are significant discrepancies between model predictions for

rainfall for many areas in Africa, current rainfall projections for Ethiopia for the
2060s range from a decrease of 6% below the observed 1970-99 average to an
increase of 24%.

• Most models predict a larger percentage of precipitation falling during heavy

events, which can increase the risk of disasters such as floods and landslides.

April 23, 2025 36

 Projected Weather and Climate
• Agriculture, including crop and livestock production (MoARD, 2010), is the main economic
sector in the country, contributing 47% of GDP, followed by services and industry,
comprising 42.2% and 10.8%, respectively.

• Key crops affected include barely, wheat, maize, and sorghum.

• Although agriculture contributes just under half of the country GDP, it employs 85% of the
workforce, with 95% of the agricultural GDP composed of small-scale farming.

• Ethiopia has the largest livestock population in Africa.

• The pastoral sector supplies 40 to 50% of the cattle and goats for the domestic market and is
also the prominent supplier for export markets.
April 23, 2025 37
 CLASSIFICATION OF VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

• As per the IPCC report “Top down and bottom-up models are the two basic approaches to
examine the linkages between the economy and specific GHG emitting sectors such as
the energy system.

• The differences between their results are rooted in a complex interplay among the
differences in purpose, model structure, and input assumptions”.

• Impacts frameworks are sometimes referred to as the first generation or top down
frameworks.

• They were mainly designed to help understand the potential long-term impacts of climate
change, a probabilistic understanding of future changes.
April 23, 2025 38
Basic framework of top-down approach

April 23, 2025 39

 Bottom-up Framework
• The adaptation frameworks, sometimes referred to as the second generation or
bottom up frameworks have been designed to focus on adaptation and involve
stakeholders.
• Compared to top down approaches, bottom up assessment approaches address near
term concerns.
• Bottom-up assessment models examine technological options or project-specific
climate change mitigation policies.
• They emphasize specific technologies and regulations.
• Bottom-up studies are useful for the assessment of specific policy options at the
sectoral level thus assessing how to enhance local capacity. It involves community
and private sector assessment initiatives and implementation mechanisms.
• It also encourages stakeholder consultations at each level of assessment.
• More of traditional knowledge is used and for analysis informal techniques are used
April 23, 2025 40
April 23, 2025 41
April 23, 2025 42
The sectors in Ethiopia that are most vulnerable to climate change

April 23, 2025 43

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April 23, 2025 46
 Sources: MoFED, 2010; FDRE, 2012

April 23, 2025 47

April 23, 2025 48
 KEY ECOSYSTEM VULNERABILITIES

Highlands
• The highland areas are comprised of the middle highlands with altitudes
between 1,500-2,300 meters above sea level (m.a.s.), and
• the highlands, with altitudes upwards of 2,300 m.a.s. These ecosystems host a
rich diversity of flora and fauna, including a number of endemic species, such as
several globally recognized endemic bird areas.

• The highlands also support the majority of the country’s human population.
• The high population density and the economic activities undertaken in the
highlands are placing stress on fragile highland ecosystems.

April 23, 2025 49

• Climate variability has already begun to affect highland areas, with rainfall irregularities
and associated flooding and droughts of greatest concern.
• For instance, localized flooding below hillsides is a widespread hazard in the foothills of
the mountainous areas in northwest Amhara, which can damage agriculture and ecosystems.
• Predicted changes in climate may increase climate risks and worsen non-climate stressors,
such as soil problems and the pest damage that already plagues the Arsi-Bale Highlands
• Lowlands
• consist primarily of the arid lowland plains.
• These ecosystems and the resources they provide, such as grazing grasslands and
firewood for household use and sale, support the well-being and livelihoods of the
estimated 8 million pastoralists located in the Ethiopian portion of the Horn of Africa.
• are currently under pressure from a number of non-climate stresses such as overgrazing,
overexploitation, shifts away from traditional modes of rangeland management, bush
encroachment, introduction of invasive species, and population growth.

April 23, 2025 50

 Adaptation-Relevant Strategies, Plans, and Policies

• Plan for Accelerated and Sustainable Development to End Poverty

• Environmental Policy of Ethiopia
• Agriculture and Rural Development Policy and Strategy
• National Agricultural Research Policy and Strategy
• Water Resources Management Policy
• Health Sector Development Policy and Program
• National Policy on Disaster Prevention and Preparedness
• National Policy on Biodiversity Conservation and Research
• Population Policy
• Science and Technology Policy

April 23, 2025 51

 Sources of Environmental laws
What are the sources of environmental law?
• The major sources of international environmental law are treaties
and international agreements.
What are the five source of environmental law?
These includes: economics, environmental, information, social,
attitudinal and behavioral barriers that are not yet fully understood.
 Interpretation and application is another potentially important
source of environmental law.

April 23, 2025 52

 Adaptation-Relevant Strategies, Plans, and Policies

Priority Adaptation Projects from NAPA

• Promoting drought/crop insurance program

• Strengthening drought and flood early warning system

• Developing small-scale irrigation and water harvesting schemes in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas.

• Improving rangeland resources management practices in pastoral areas

• Community-based sustainable utilization and management of wetlands

• Building capacity for climate change adaptation

• Realizing food security through a multi-purpose large-scale water development project in Genale-Dawa Basin

• Community –based carbon sequestration in Rift Valley System

• Establishing a national climate research center

• Promoting on-farm and homestead forestry and agroforestry in arid, semi-arid , and dry sub-humid areas.
April 23, 2025 53
 Although the CRGE Strategy seeks to make Ethiopia a climate resilient country,
• most of its priorities are geared toward mitigation efforts,
• primarily in achieving high crop and livestock production,
• maintaining and creating carbon sinks, and
• achieving higher energy efficiency.
• In addition, although structures are in place,
• enforcement is weak, and
• the country still faces challenges in implementation, including
• capacity constraints,
• monitoring and implementation, reporting and verification of abatement measures,
• weak networking between different national stakeholders, and
• limited integration of local knowledge in the policy-making process .

April 23, 2025 54

April 23, 2025 55
Priority Challenges & Constraints for Addressing Vulnerability
& Increasing Resilience
• Lack of research and development capacity to assess the impacts and
consequences of climate change.

• A dearth of individuals with specialization in vulnerability and adaptation

assessment, including in sectors such as agriculture, water resources, and health.

• Limited skilled capacity, facilities, and technologies to provide accurate and

timely weather and climate forecasts.
• A weak institutional framework for dealing with climate change.
• A need for improved coordination and synergy of adaptation actions generally and
in specific sectors at both national and sub-national levels.
April 23, 2025 56
Adaptation options in the agricultural sector should include
• Improved management of soil and water resources to mitigate drought conditions and ensure
water availability;
• Flood & drought monitoring systems to respond appropriately to hazard events;
• Soil conservation measures (such as composting and terracing);
• Establishment of windbreaks (strips of trees, shrubs, and vines to reduce wind-related
evaporation and damage associated with heavy rains);
• Engineering solutions (such as pipe irrigation, which controls evaporation, percolation, and
seepage);
• Introduction of improved seeding techniques;
• small reservoirs; and improved outdoor grain storage facilities;
• Improved livestock production;
• Mapping of vulnerable agricultural areas; and
• Research on indigenous resilient crop species.
April 23, 2025 57
 The national environmental policy: The strength and weakness of the policy
The Overall Policy Goal
The overall policy goal is to improve and enhance the health and quality of life of all
Ethiopians and to promote sustainable social and economic development through the sound
management and use of natural, human-made and cultural resources and the environment as a
whole so as to meet the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of
future generations to meet their own needs.
Strength and weakness of the policy: Read Ethiopian Environmental Policy: Challenges and
Prospects on Sustainable Social and Economic Development By: Kelbesa Wakuma Kenea
(Masters of Arts (Public Administration) INDIRA GANDHI NATIONAL OPEN UNIVERSITY May,
2012).

April 23, 2025 58

 The national environmental laws
What is National Environmental Law?
In the context of the Ethiopian legal system, National environmental law includes the provisions concerning the
environment in the 1995 FDRE constitution; different environmental treaties ratified by the House of
Representatives according to Art. 9 (4) of our constitution and all laws (federal and regional) concerned with the
environment (Forestry, Land, Water use and other sectoral laws).

April 23, 2025 59

 The national environmental laws

April 23, 2025 60

 The national environmental laws

April 23, 2025 61

 Topic D2. Slide 3 of 21

Challenges & opportunities on climate change adaptation and mitigation

(eg. MRV system)
 An important procedure built in a systematic way to
• generate transparency
• built trust on their effectiveness and
• facilitate decision-making
 Can be used to estimate:
• emissions at national, regional, sectoral levels
• impacts of mitigation policies and actions
• financial flows/technology transfer/capacity building and their
impacts
 Without a robust MRV projects would have difficulties in finding
markets
 Topic D2. Slide 4 of 21

Scope: Measurement

 Measurements can be applied at different levels (national, sub-

national), as well as sectoral and facility (factory)
 Establish baselines as a reference point for setting future mitigation
targets
 Involve a range of organizations in the measurement process including
public and private sectors
 Multiply activity data (AD), e.g. energy statistics, with country-specific
emission factors (EFs) to achieve an estimate of total emissions.
 Topic D2. Slide 5 of 21

Scope: Reporting
Reporting, which is intended for the production of National
Communications, Biennial Update Reports (BURs), and Nationally
Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) includes:
 Sectors activities and types of gas
 Institutional arrangements
 Methodologies used, data sources, underlying assumptions
 Methodology used to determine the uncertainty
 Methodology of baseline construction
 Scope: Verification
Topic D2. Slide 6 of 21

 Verification helps implement quality assurance and quality control

(QA/QC) procedures at national level, in order to improve
transparency, accuracy, consistency, completeness, comparability and
the overall confidence in the emission estimates.
 Intended for both for data providers and the national entity
responsible for compiling the emissions estimates
 Verification is not supposed to control countries but rather to install
an international learning process and to foster continuous
improvement.
 Topic D2. Slide 7 of 21

MRV of National Communication

• Developed countries are required to submit information on their national

greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories annually.
• They also submit national communication periodically, according to dates set by
the COP.
• At COP16, it was decided that developing countries would submit their national
communications (which include national GHG inventories) every four years.
 Topic D2. Slide 11 of 21

Planning the MRV system for REDD+

 Define initial priorities for capacity development:

• understanding the national REDD+ implementation strategies and policies
• identifying high priority areas to focus MRV activities (and demonstrations) using a
stratified national approach
 Early actions will need to deal with partial MRV but leakage need to be assessed
nationally
 Link with evolving benefit sharing mechanisms
 Synergy of national and local monitoring
• Role of local communities and experts in REDD+ implementation
 Topic D2. Slide 17 of 21

International
Reporting

National level
MRV
• National priorities and strategies for local REDD+
• REDD+ participation and safeguards
implementation
• National datasets and streams for local use • Local data collection as input to national monitoring (forest
• Capacity development and revenue stream (for MRV) inventory, regular and near-real time tracking of forest change
• MRV guidance & standards events)
• National data infrastructure and quality control of local • Performance reporting (long-term) for local implementation
measurements activities
• Monitoring of leakage • Independent data sources for validation purposes

Local level
Monitoring
Pratihast et al., 2013,
 Topic D2. Slide 19 of 21

 Continuous MRV improvements is important to encourage broad

participation and step-wise progress
 National forest monitoring system in place
 Linking data and emission estimates to financial incentives and
benefit sharing
 Reduce uncertainties by improving institutional and individual
capacities at all levels
 Sustained support on the national and sub national processes from the
international level
 Developing countries, especially those with extensive wetlands have
opportunities to develop their MRV systems
 Topic D2. Slide 19 of 21

Thank you!