Statistics for Business Decisions – II
BBA (Regular) 2.3
Resource Person
Dr. Savita K, BEL First Grade College
SEP Syllabus as per BCU
with Skill Development
Pedagogy
• Classroom lecture
• Tutorials
• Group discussion
• Seminar
• Field Work
• Case studies
• Asignment
Course Outcome
• Develop Proficiency in Statistical Methods
• Understand and Apply Time Series Analysis
• Perform Interpolation and Extrapolation
• Evaluate Population Theories and Techniques
• Analyze Demographic and Vital Statistics
Unit.1: CORRELATION, REGRESSION ANALYSIS – 12
Hrs
• Coefficient of Correlation: Covariance, Karl Pearson’s
Coefficient of Correlation.
• Simple Linear Regression: Introduction to Simple Linear
regression, Determining Equation of Regression Line (x on y
and y on x),
• Measure of Variation (Coefficient of Determination, Standard
Error of the Estimate),
• Statistical Inference about the slope and Testing the Overall
Regression Model.
Unit.2: TIME SERIES ANALYSIS – 12
Hrs
• Introduction, Components of a Time Series: Secular trend,
Short term variation, Random or irregular variation.
• Components of Time series, Time Series Models (Additive,
Multiplicative),
• Measurement of trend: Graphical or free hand curve fitting
method, Semi-Average method, Least square method, Moving
average method (2 yearly, 3yearly, 4yearly and 5yearly moving
averages)
Time Series Models
Additive Model:
Concept:
Assumes the observed time series value is the sum of the trend,
seasonal, and irregular components.
Mathematical Representation:
Y(t) = Trend + Seasonality + Cyclical Patterns + Irregular Component.
Multiplicative Model:
Concept:
Assumes the observed time series value is the product of the trend,
seasonal, and irregular components.
Mathematical Representation:
Y(t) = Trend * Seasonality * Cyclical Patterns * Irregular Component.
Unit.3: INTERPOLATION AND EXTRAPOLATION
-10 Hrs
• Introduction: Assumptions, uses of interpolation and
extrapolation.
• Methods of Interpolation: Graphic Method, Newton’s forward
difference method, Newton’s backward difference method,
• Introduction to Binomial expansion method (derivation only).
Unit.4: VITAL STATISTICS – 12 Hrs
• Meaning of demography and Vital statistics. Methods of collection of
Vital Statistics and uses.
• Fertility, growth and mortality rates. Definition of fertility and
fecundity.
• Fertility rates- CBR, ASFR, GFR and TFR (Problems).
• Growth rate- Gross reproduction rate and Net reproduction rate
(Problems).
• Mortality rates- CDR, ASDR, S.T.D.R.(Problems) IMR, NMR and MMR
(Theory Only).
Unit.5: Statistical Quality Control - 10
Hrs
• Introduction to SQC, Uses of SQC, Process and Product
Control,
• Control Charts: Upper Control Limit, Lower Control Limit,
Central Line.
• Construction and Statistical basis of 3-σ Control charts ( X-bar
& R-chart, X-bar & s-chart np-chart, p-chart, c-chart and u-
chart)[Theory Only], Rational Sub-grouping.
Skill Developments Activities:
1. Calculate Regression for an imaginary dataset.
2. Differentiate between additive and multiplicative
time series models.
3. Calculate Correlation for an imaginary dataset.
4. List any five uses of Statistical Quality Control
QP Pattern – 80 marks
Unit Section A Section B Section C Section D
2 marks 5 marks 15 marks 5 marks
1 2 2 (a+b) 1 2
2 2 2 (a+b) 1 1
3 2 2 (a+b) 1 -
4 2 2 (a+b) 1 -
5 2 2 (a+b) 1 1
Any 5/8 Any 4/6 Any 3/5 Any 1
Internal Assessment
• 2 Class Tests for 20 marks each. 10 marks shall be based on average of two tests (20
Marks each). Each test shall be of at least 01-hour duration to be held during the
semester.
• The remaining 10 marks of the Internal Assessment shall be based on Attendance and
Assignments /skill development exercises of 05 marks each.
• The marks based on attendance shall be awarded as given below:
• 75% to 80% = 02 marks
• 80% to 85% = 03 marks
• 85% to 90% = 04 marks.
• 90% to 100% = 05 marks.
• 5 marks for any activities /skill development exercises
Class work ,Project work, Field Study, Quiz, Presentation, Group Discussion, Case study,
Assignment.
