The 'impact analysis' or

detailed study phase of EIA

involves:

i. identifying the impacts more

specifically

ii. predicting the characteristics

of the main impacts

iii.evaluating the significance of

the residual impact

Impact Analysis 1
 EMCA
Initial Environmental IEE Sch.
Screening
Examination (IEE) Review 2

EIA
Required EIA Not
Scoping/
Terms of Required
Reference

Full-Scale
You EIA
are
here EIA
Approved
EIA Decision
Review Making EIA Audit and
Monitoring
Evaluation

EIA Not
Approved

Evaluate
Options

2
 The term ‘environment’
includes:

(Commonly referred to as “valued

environmental/ ecosystem components
(VECs)
human health and safety
flora, fauna, ecosystems and biodiversity
soil, water, air, climate and landscape
useof land, natural resources and raw
materials
protected areas and sites of special
significance
heritage, recreation and amenity assets
livelihood,lifestyle and well being of
affected communities
Impact identification methods

i. checklists

ii. matrices

iii. networks

iv. overlays and geographical

information systems (GIS)

v. expert systems

vi. professional judgement

vii. Risk assessment

Impact Analysis 4
 Example of a checklist
(For rural and urban water supply and sanitation projects)

Aspects of EIA Checklist Questions Yes No Additional

Will the project: Data needs

Sources of Impacts 1. Require the acquisition or conversion of significant areas

of land for reservoir/treatment works etc. (e.g. > 50 ha
rural, > 5 ha urban)?
2. Result in significant quantities of eroded material, effluent
or solid wastes?

3. Require significant accommodation or service amenities to

support the workforce during construction (eg > 100
manual workers)?

Receptors of Impacts 4. Flood or otherwise affect areas which support

conservation worthy terrestrial or aquatic ecosystems,
flora or fauna (eg protected areas, wilderness areas,
forest reserves, critical habitats, endangered species); or
that contain sites of historical or cultural importance?
5. Flood or otherwise affect areas which will affect the
livelihoods of local people (eg require population
resettlement; affect local industry, agriculture, livestock
or fish stocks; reduce the availability of natural resource
goods and services)?
6. Involve siting sanitation treatment facilities close to
human settlements (particularly where locations are
susceptible to flooding)?
7. Affect sources of water extraction?

Environmental Impacts 8. Cause a noticeable permanent or seasonal reduction in

the volume of ground or surface water supply?

9. Present a significant pollution risk through liquid or solid

wastes to humans, sources of water extraction,
conservation worthy aquatic ecosystems and species, or
commercial fish stocks?
10. Change the local hydrology of surface water-bodies (eg
streams, rivers, lakes) such that conservation-worthy or
commercially significant fish stocks are affected?
11. Increase the risk of diseases in areas of high population
density (eg onchocerciasis, filariasis, malaria, hepatitis,
gastrointestinal diseases)?
12. Induce secondary development, eg along access roads,
or in the form of entrepreneurial services for construction
and operational activities?

Mitigation Measures 13. Be likely to require mitigation measures that may result in
the project being financially or socially unacceptable?

Comments

I recommend that the programme be assigned to

Category

Signature: Delegation.........................................Desk...................................
Sectoral Matrix (Leopold Matrix)

Valued Env.
Component
(VEC)

Archaeological/Historical
Surface Water Quality

Seismology/Geology

Terrestrial Wildlife

Development

Socioeconomic
Public Health
Land Quality

Resettlement
Projects
Air Quality

Aesthetics
Industries
Land Use
Fisheries
Erosion

Forests

Noise

Ports and Harbours

Airports

Rapid Transit

Highways

Oil/Gas Pipelines

Significant Impact Moderate - Significant Impact Insignificant Impact

 Checklist Example2

Actions Affecting Potential

Resources and
Values: Damages:

1. Disruption of 1. Impairment of Other

Hydrology Beneficial Water
2. Resettlement Uses
3. Encroachment on 2. Social Inequities
Precious Ecology 3. Loss of ecological
4. Encroachment on Values
Historic/ 4. Loss of these Values
Cultural Values 5. Conflicts with Other
5. Cooling Tower Beneficial Water
Obstruction Uses
6. Regional Flooding 6. Hazard to Plant
Hazard Operations
7. Waste Emissions 7. Intensification of
Related to Siting Problems of
Pollution Control

Impact Analysis 7
 Example of a network
(showing linkages leading to changes in quality of
life, wildlife and tourism)

CHANGING QUALITY CHANGING QUALITY

OF LIFE FOR WILDLIFE OF TOURISM

Loss of Habitat Increased Incidents

between Loss of Natural
Wildlife & People Wilderness Value

Deforestation & Erosion of River Bank Overgrazing Changes in

Loss of Biodiversity Gorge Erosion Around
Animal Behaviour
Access Paths Water Holes

Too small an area

for animal numbers

Riparian Constriction Harrassment

Selective Cutting of wildlife
of trees for Water Wave Vegetation of wildlife
Pollution Effects Reduced movements
Curio Wood
More Fences/ Visual DisturbanceIncreasing
Oily discharges River Bank & Island Enclosures Impacts of wildlife noise levels
from boats etc. Development

New Road
Demand for Expansion of More Aircraft More & Bridge at Old
More More
Curios Rafting Jetties & Hotels/Camps Flying Over Motor Drift/Zambezi
Increased & Tourist Facilities Falls & Town Vehicles National Park
Licences Boat Licences

Increased Visitor Numbers

Demand for More Direct Improved Border Improved Road Links

Low-spending International Facilities - Livingston/Lusaka
Tourism Increases Flights - Zambia/Botswana/Namibia

Increased customs co-operation

Airport Upgrading between Zimbabwe/Zambia

(Bisset)
 Choice of EIA method
depends on:

 the type and size of the proposal

 the type of alternatives being
considered
 the nature of the likely impacts;
 the availability of impact
identification methods
 the experience of the EIA team
with their use
 the resources available - cost,
information, time, personnel

Impact Analysis 9
 Main advantages and
disadvantages of impact
identification methods

ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES
Checklists • simple to understand • do not distinguish
–simple and use between direct and
–ranking • good for site selection indirect impacts
and and priority setting • do not link action and
weighting impact
• the process of
incorporating values
can be controversial
Matrices • link action to impact • difficult to distinguish
• good method for direct and indirect
displaying EIA results impacts
• significant potential
for double-counting of
impacts
Networks • link action to impact • can become very
• useful in simplified complex if used beyond
form for checking for simplified version
second order impacts
• handles direct and
indirect impacts
Overlays • easy to understand • address only direct
• good display method impacts
• good siting tool • do not address impact
duration or probability
GIS and • excellent for impact • heavy reliance on
computer identification and knowledge and data
expert analysis • often complex and
systems
• good for ‘experimenting’ expensive

Impact Analysis 10
 Information required to
establish baseline conditions

 current conditions
 current and expected
trends
 effects of proposals already
being implemented
 effects of other proposals
yet to be implemented

Impact Analysis 11
 An environmental impact

(Wathern, 1988)

Impact Analysis 12
 Impact characteristics can
vary in:

 nature (positive/negative,
direct/indirect)
 magnitude (severe, moderate, low)
 extent/location (area/volume
covered, distribution)
 timing (during construction,
operation etc, immediate, delayed)
 duration (short term/long term,
intermittent/continuous)
 reversibility/irreversibility
 likelihood (probability, uncertainty)
 significance (local, regional, global)

Impact Analysis 13
 Orders of Impact Example

River Embankment

1st Order
Dry Flood Plains

2nd Order
Loss of Plain Fisheries

3rd Order Loss of Fisheries Income

4th Order Social Tension & Poverty Intensified

 Impact characteristic
summary table

IMPACT TYPE

IMPACT
air quality health etc
CHARACTERISTIC

nature

magnitude

extent/location

timing

duration

reversibility

likelihood (risk)

significance

Impact Analysis 15
 Data Requirements

 Project
» Type
» Size
» Location

 Area of potential impact

» Physical resources
» Biological resources
» Economic development
resources
» Quality of life
» Other existing and planned
projects

16
 Sources of Information

 Existing reports on environmental

resources in the area

 Previous assessment reports

» EIA reports on similar project types
» Reports on other projects in the
region that may cause similar
disturbances

 Regional planning, policy and other

reports

 Field studies

 Local citizens and traditional knowledge

17
 Methods of impact prediction

 ‘best estimate’ professional

judgement and experience with
similar project types
 quantitative mathematical
models
 experiments and physical
models
 case studies as analogues or
references

Impact Analysis 18
 Types of uncertainty in
impact prediction

 scientific uncertainty – limited

understanding of the
ecosystem or community
affected
 data uncertainty – incomplete
information or insufficient
methodology
 policy uncertainty – unclear or
disputed objectives or
standards

Impact Analysis 19
 Types of social impacts

 demographic – changes to
population numbers,
distribution
 cultural – changes to customs,
traditions and values
 community – changes to
cohesion, relationships etc.
 socio-psychological – changes
to quality of life and well being

Impact Analysis 20
 Health impacts

Examples of health impacts by sector

Communicable Non Nutrition Injury Psychosocial
disease communicable disorder and
disease loss of well-
being
Mining Tuberculosis Dust induced Crushing Labour migration
lung disease
Agriculture Parasitic Pesticide Loss of
infections poisoning subsistence
Industry Poisoning by Occupational Disempowerment
pollutants injury
Forestry Loss of food Occupational
production injury
Dams and Water borne Poisoning by Increased food Drowning Involuntary
irrigation diseases pollutants production displacement
schemes
Transportation HIV/Aids Heart disease Traffic injury Noise and
induced stress
Energy Indoor air Electromagnetic Community
pollution radiation displacement

Source: Birley, 2000

Impact Analysis
21
 Factors affecting economic
impacts

 duration of construction and

operation
 workforce requirements for each
period
 skill requirements (local availability)
 earning
 raw material and other input
purchases
 capital investment
 outputs
 the characteristics of the local
economy

Impact Analysis 22
 Factors affecting fiscal
impacts

 size of investment and workforce

requirements
 capacity of existing service
delivery and infrastructure
systems
 local/regional tax or other
revenue raising processes
 demographic changes arising
from project requirements

Impact Analysis 23
Examples of threshold tests
for environmental
acceptability

Box 3: Examples of threshold tests for environmental acc eptability

Level of ac ce ptability Potentia l impa ct threshold

Unacce ptable Exceeds legal threshold, e.g.

q ualitystandard
Unacce ptable Increases level of risk to public
health and safety ab ove
q ualitative or quantitative criteria
(e.g. in so me jurisdictions an
inc reased risk of death of 1 in a
million per year
Unacce ptable Extinc tion of b iolo gical species,
loss of genetic diversity, rare or
endangered species, c ritical
habitat
Norma llyunacc epta ble C onflict with existing
environmental policies , land-use
p lans
Norma llyunacc epta ble Loss of popula tions of commercial
b iolo gica l species
Norma llyunacc epta ble Large-sca le loss of productive
c ap acity of renewable resources
May be acce ptable only with Avoidance of spread of biolog ical
minimiz
a tion, mitigation, management d isease, pests, feral animals,
weeds
May be acce ptable only with Taking of rare or endangered
minimiz
a tion, mitigation, management spec ies
May be acce ptable only with Some loss of threatened habitat
minimiz
a tion, mitigation, management
Norma llyacce pta ble Some loss of populations and
habitats of non-threatened
spec ies
Norma llyacce pta ble M odification of landsc ape without
d owngrading special aesthetic
va lues
Norma llyacce pta ble Emissio ns d emonstrably less than
the c arryin g capacity of the
receiving environment
Source : Sip p e 1999
 Key elements for assessing
impact significance

 environmental standards
 level of public concern
 scientific and professional
evidence concerning:

- resource loss/ecological
damage

- negative social impacts

- foreclosure of land and

resource use options

Impact Analysis 25
 Guiding principles for
determining impact
significance:

 use established procedure

or guidance
 adapt relevant criteria or
comparable cases
 assign significance
rationally and defensibly
 be consistent in the
comparison of alternatives
 document the reasons for
judgements

Impact Analysis 26
 Test for significance by
asking three questions

 Are there residual environmental

impacts?
 If yes, are these likely to be
significant or not?
 If yes, are these significant
effects likely to occur?

Impact Analysis 27
 Impact significance criteria

 environmental loss and

deterioration
 social impacts resulting from
environmental change
 non-conformity with
environmental standards
 probability and acceptability of
risk

Impact Analysis 28
 Ecological significance
criteria

 reduction in species diversity

 habitat depletion or fragmentation
 threatened, rare and endangered
species
 impairment of ecological functions
e.g.

– disruption of food chains;

– decline in species population;

– alterations in predator-prey
relationships.

Impact Analysis 29
 Social significance criteria

 human health and safety

 decline in important resource
 loss of valued area
 displacement of people
 disruption of communities
 demands on services and
infrastructure

Impact Analysis 30
 Environmental standards

 limits on effluent discharge

concentrations
 clean air standards, water quality
standards
 policy objectives and targets
 plans or policies that protect or
limit use of natural resources

Impact Analysis 31
 Alternative approaches to
determining significance

 apply technical criteria

when changes are
predictable
 use negotiation when
significance is disputable

Impact Analysis 32
 Practical guidance

Impacts are likely to be significant if

they:
 are extensive over space or time
 are intensive in concentration or in
relation to assimilative capacity
 exceed environmental standards or
thresholds
 do not comply with environmental
policies/ land use plans
 affect ecological sensitive areas and
heritage resources
 affect community lifestyle,
traditional land uses and values

Impact Analysis 33
 Possible Strategies for
Alternatives

 Re-evaluate regional plans (e.g., to

address cumulative impacts with other
planned projects)

 Review project options (i.e.,

alternatives and modifications)

 Evaluate site mitigation strategies;

including compensation strategies

 Likely you’ll use a combination of

strategies

34
 Examples of Project
Alternatives

 No-build alternative
 Demand alternatives (e.g., using existing
energy capacity more efficiency rather
than building more capacity)

 Activity alternatives (e.g., providing public

transport rather than increasing road
capacity)

 Location/rerouting alternatives

35
 More Examples of
Project Alternatives

 Process alternatives (e.g., re-use of

process water, reducing waste, different
logging methods)

 Scheduling alternatives (e.g., timing of

project construction)

 Input alternatives (e.g., use of different

raw materials or sources of energy)

(refer to topic on industrial ecology & cleaner

production)

36
 Where to from Here?

No Further
Action
Required:
Issues with: No Effect Write up
Issues with: findings in
EIA Project
Insignificant Effect Report

Issues with: Unknown

Significant
Effect

Issues with: Significant

Effects within the
Scope of the EIA

Issues with: Significant

Effects outside the
Scope of the EIA

Action Action
Required: Required:
Identify
Develop the
Information
Environmental &
Needs & Tasks
Social
Required to
Management
Resolve
Plan & Protection
Outstanding E
Write up findings and Measures to
& S impacts
recommendations in Resolve E&S
EIA report impacts
 Example EIA Report Contents

1. Description of the Project

2. Description of the Baseline Environment

3. Screening of Potential Environmental Issues

and Rationale for their Significance Grading

4. Environmental Mitigation (Protection)

Measures

5. Environmental Monitoring and Institutional

Requirements

6. Recommendations for Additional Studies

7. Conclusions

38
 EIA in the Project Cycle

Conventional Corresponding
Project Planning Environmental
Protection Activity

Project
Reconnaissance Survey
Screening
Initial
Environmental
Examination
Pre-feasibility Study
Environmental
Impact
Assessment
Feasibility Study

Checking Design
Final Design

Monitoring Construction

Construction
Monitoring
Operations and
Environmental
Effects
Operation

39
 @@@@@@

The end

UNEP Training Resource Manual Topic 6 Slide 40