Measures of fertility

and
Reproduction
 Definitions
Fecundity—Physiological capacity to conceive
Infecundity (sterility)—Lack of the capacity to
conceive.
– Primary sterility—Never able to produce a child
– Secondary sterility—Sterility after one or more children have
been born
 Definitions
Fecundability—Probability that a woman will
conceive during a menstrual cycle
 Fertility (natality)—Manifestation of fecundity

 Infertility—Inability to bear a live birth

 Natural fertility—Fertility in the absence of

deliberate parity-specific control
 Definitions
• Reproductivity—Extent to which a group is replacing its
own numbers by natural processes.
• Gravidity—Number of pregnancies a woman has had

• Parity—Number of children born alive to a woman

• Birth interval—Time between successive live births

• Pregnancy interval—Time between successive

pregnancies of a woman
 Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
• Let B = Number of births
• Let P = Mid-year population
• Let W15-44= Number of women of reproductive
ages CBR  B *1000  B * P *1000 f
15 49

P P15f  49 P

• Crude Birth Rate—Number of births per 1,000

population in a given time period.
B
CBR  * 1000
P
 Based on CBR values Fertility
 High fertility Rate = > 30/1000

 Medium fertility rate = 20-30/1000

 Low fertility rate = < 20/1000

Limitations of CBR

Only a crude estimate of fertility.

All the population included in the denominator is not exposed to the risk of pregnancy.

 Not good for comparing fertility across populations

 General Fertility Rate (GFR)
 General Fertility Rate—Number of births per 1,000
women of reproductive ages in a given time period.

B
GFR  f
*1000
P15 49
• It eliminates distortions that might arise due to different age and sex
distributions among the total population.

 The major limitation of GFR is that not all women in the denominator are

exposed to the risk of child birth.

 Exercise
General Fertility Rate (GFR)
• Use the following data to calculate the GFR per 1,000
women aged 15–49:
• Island of Mauritius, 1985
• Age Group Women 15-19
52 013 20-24
54 307 25-29
46 990 30-34
40 211 35-39
30 401 40-44
23 496
• 45-49 12000
• Total births: 18 500
• Source: U.N. Demographic Yearbook, 1986
 Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR[a]) and TFR

• ASFR(a)—Number of births per 1,000 women of

a specific age group a in a given time period.
Ba
ASFR( a )  * 1000
Wa
Where Ba=Number of births to women of age (group) “a”
Wa= Number of women of age (group) “a”
a= age group 15-19, 20-24,… 44-49.
 Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
• Total Fertility Rate(TFR)—Number of children a woman
will have if she lives through all the reproductive ages and
follows the age-specific fertility rates of a given time period
(usually one year).
• For single-year age
49
Ba 49
TFR   * 1000   ASFR(a )
a 15 Wa a 15

• For five year age groups

45 49 45 49
Ba
TFR 5 *  *1000 5 *  ASFR(a )
a 15 19 Wa a 15 19
 Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
• Example: ASFR and TFR—Country X, 2004
• Age group Birth #of Women ASFR
• 15-19 43807 1230396 35.60 20-24
257872 1390077 185.51 25-29
236088 1653183 142.81 30-34
115566 1608925 71.83 35-39 38450
1241967 30.96 40-44 6627
941963 7.04
45-49 1600 841963 1.9
475.64
TFR=5*475.64/1000=2.38
It indicates on average a woman in country x will have 2.38 number of
children at the end of her reproductive life following the 2004 ASFR.
 Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)

• Let B =Number of female births

f

• B t = Number of male and female births, i.e.,

all births
 Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)
• Gross Reproduction Rate—Number of
daughters expected to be born alive to a
hypothetical cohort of women (usually 1,000) if
no one dies during childbearing years and if the
same schedule of age-specific rates is applied
throughout the childbearing years.
• Note: In the gross reproduction rate mortality of
the mother's generation before the end of the
childbearing age is not taken into consideration.
 Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)
45  49 f
B
GRR 5 * 
a 15  19
ASFR(a ) * a

Ba
t

GRR TFR * Proportion of female births

If the sex ratio at birth is assumed constant across ages of

women.
 Exercise Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)

• Use the following data to calculate the GRR

• United States, 1990
Age Group of Births
Mothers #of Women Total Male
15-19 8651 522 267
20-24 9345 1094 560
25-29 10 617 1277 653
30-34 10 986 886 454
35-39 10 061 318 163
40-44 8924 49 25
45-49 5600 28 13
Numbers are in 1000s
Check the correct answer is 1.07 daughters per woman.
 Note that
 Age-specific fertility rates are per 1,000 women.

 TFR: Total fertility rate expressed per woman

 GFR: General fertility rate expressed per 1,000 women age 15-49

 CBR: Crude birth rate, expressed per 1,000 population

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 16

 Measures of Mortality

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 17

 Mortality (Death)
 Mortality refers to deaths that occur within a population

 Death is a unique and universal event, and as a final event, clearly

defined

 Mortality (Death) rates have three essential elements:

 A population group exposed to the risk of death (denominator).

 The number of deaths occurring in that population group

(numerator)
 A time period.

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 18

 Cont…
 Common measures of mortality includes:

A. Crude Death (Mortality) Rate (CDR)

 The crude death rate is the number of deaths per 1000
population in a given year.
CDR = Total number of deaths in a year X 1000
Mid-year population
 As its name implies the CDR is not a sensitive measure
(indicator) of health status of a population.
05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 19
 B. Age specific Death (Mortality) Rates

 Death Rates can be calculated for specific age

groups, in order to compare mortality at different
ages.

ASMR = Number of deaths in a specific age group X 1000

Mid-year population of the same age group

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 20

 C. Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)
 Infant Mortality Rate is the number of deaths of infants
under one year of age (0-11 months of age) per 1000
live births in a given year.
 Infant (children under one year of age) are at highest
risk of death than any other age group

IMR = No of death of children < 1 year in a year X 1000

Total live births during that year
 In Ethiopia, IMR is 59 per 1000 live births (CSA, 2012).
05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 21
 IMR…
 The infant mortality rate is considered to be a
sensitive indicator(good indicator) of the health
status of a community, because it reflects the
socio-economic condition of the population; like:
 level of education,
 environmental sanitation,
 adequate and safe water supply,
 communicable diseases, provision of health services.
05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 22
 D. Child Mortality Rate (CMR)

 It is the number of deaths of children 1-4 years of

age per 1000 children 1-4 years of age.
 It is a sensitive indicator of the health status of a
community.
CMR = No of deaths of children 1-4 year in a year X 1000
Total number of children 1-4 years of age

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 23

 E. Under Five Mortality Rate (<5MR)

 It is the number of deaths of children under five

years of age in a year per 1000 children under
five years of age .
 It is also a very good indicator of the health
status of a community.
<5MR = No of deaths of children <5 yrs in a year X 1000
Total number of children < 5 years of age

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 24

 F. Neonatal Mortality Rate (NNMR)
 Neonatal period is the first month of age of an infant.

 Neonatal mortality (death) is the death of infants under

one month (<4 weeks) per 1000 live births.

NNMR = No of deaths of infants < 1 month in a yr X 1000

Total number of live births in the same year
 In Ethiopia, NNMR is 37 per 1000 live births (CSA, 2012).

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 25

 NNMR…
 Neonatal mortality rate reflects mortality due to:
Maternal factors during pregnancy

Birth injuries

Neonatal infection, etc.

 It is an indicator of the level of prenatal and

obstetric components of maternal and child
health care (MCH).

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 26

 G. Post-Neonatal Mortality Rate (PNNMR)
 The post neonatal age is the period of time between one
month up to one year.
 Post – Neonatal mortality (death) is deaths of infants one
month (four weeks) of age up to one year (1 – 11 months
age of) per 1000 live births.

PNNMR = No of deaths of infants 1 month to 1 yr in a yr X1000

Total Number of live births during the same year

 In Ethiopia, post neonatal death accounts for 22 per 1000 live births (CSA,
05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 27
2012).
 PNNMR…
 The post-neonatal mortality rate reflects deaths due to
factors related to;
Environmental sanitation
Infections (communicable diseases)
Nutritional problems
Child care etc.

 It can be used as an indicator to evaluate Maternal and

Child Health Care services and socio-economic

development of a community
05/28/2025 or country.
by Hanan Abdulkadir 28
 H. Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR)

Definition:
‘Maternal Mortality’ is death of a woman while
pregnant ,or within 42 days of termination of
pregnancy irrespective of the duration or site of the
pregnancy from any cause related to, or aggravated
by the pregnancy or its management not from
accidental causes

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 29

 Conti….
 Maternal mortality ratio is the number of maternal
deaths related to pregnancy, child birth and post natal
(Puerperium) complications per 100,000 live births.

MMR = Number of deaths of women related to pregnancy ,child birth and Puerperium in
a year X 100,000
Total number of live births in the same year

 It is a sensitive indicator of health status of a population.

 05/28/2025
It reflects the socio- economic status of a community. 30
by Hanan Abdulkadir
 Maternal Mortality Rate
• Number of deaths due to maternal causes per 1,000
women of reproductive ages

Note: Maternal mortality ratio is more widely used

•Represents both the obstetric risk and the frequency

with which women are exposed to this risk

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 31

 I. Sex Specific Death Rates (SSDR)
 Sex Specific Death Rate is the number of deaths among a
specific sex group (males or females) per 1000 population of
the same sex group.

SSDR for males = Number of deaths among males X 1000

Total number of males

 Sex specific mortality rate is used to determine which sex

group is at higher risk ofby Hanan
05/28/2025
death than the other.
Abdulkadir 32
 Cont…
Factors in mortality decline

 Improvement in health conditions

 Good living standards
 Advancement in science and technology
 Increased control of epidemic diseases through improved

housing ,better food and water supply ,adoption of

sanitary measures, and discovery of different antibiotics.
 Wide spread application of the existing knowledge
05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 33
 Measurement of Migration

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 34

 Migration
 It is a process of involving movement of people from one
geographical area to another.

It involves change of residence and crossing of pre-

defined boundary.
Like fertility and mortality, it is one component of
population change.
 Migration takes various forms across space and time.
 It has significant effect on the development of separate cultures and
diffusion
05/28/2025 of cultures. by Hanan Abdulkadir 35
 Definitions of term

• In-migrant—A person who moves in a political area within

the same country
• Immigrant—An international migrant who enters the area
from a place outside the country
• Out-migrant—A person who moves out of a political area
within the same country
• Emigrant—An international migrant departing to another
country by crossing the international boundary
05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 36
Types of Migration
1. Primitive migration (it is response to environmental
conditions)
2. Forced migration (necessary transfer of group of people)
3. Impelled migration (Migrants retain some ability to
decide to move or not)
4. Free migration (Movements for economic betterment)
5. Mass migration (large numbers ,communities move out
with out being informed.)
05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 37
 Factors that cause migration

1. Push factors

Are negative home conditions that force people to move

like;
 Decline in the national resource.
 Loss of employment
 Oppressive or repressive discriminatory treatment
 Natural disaster

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 38

 2. Pull factors

 Positive attributes at the new location like;

 Better Employment opportunities

 Better Education opportunities

 preferable living conditions

 Emergence of new activities

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 39

 Migration can be classified in terms of :

1. Distance traveled =internal or international

2. Time period over which migration takes place = Short

term or long term

3. Characteristics of places of origin and destinations =

Urban or Rural

4. The forces behind the population movement =

Political or labor

5. The political designation of areas b/n which the

movement takes placeby Hanan
05/28/2025 = international
Abdulkadir or internal 40
 Migration…

 In broad terms migration can be classified in to

two internal and International migration

1. Internal migration
 It affects only the distribution of population.

 Is a movement with in the boundary of a country

 Involves crossing of political boundaries

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 41

 Migration…
 Internal migration could be
Rural to rural
Rural to urban
Urban to urban
Urban to rural

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 42

 Causes of internal migration
1. Regional inequality in economic development

2. Disasters such as war, flood, drought

3. Low agricultural productivity.

4. High population pressure

5. Poverty and hunger

6. The attraction of towns as a center of education, higher

income and social amenities.

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 43

 2. International migration

 It entails movement of people across national

boundaries.
 Affects all parts of the globe in terms of distribution,
gain or loss of population
 It is referred to as emigration with respect to the sending
nation and immigration with respect to the receiving
nation

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 44

 International…

 Movements across national boundary may be classified

in to short term or long term, temporary or
permanent, voluntary or forced, legal or illegal etc.
 Data on international migration could be obtained from.
 Frontier control
 From population register
 Population census and surveys

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 45

 Cont…
 Net Internal migration=In-migrants - Out-migrants

 Net International migration=Immigrants – Emigrants

Note: Net migration for an area often includes both

international and internal migration

 Gross Internal migration= In-migrants + Out migrants =

Migration turnover
05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 46
 Cont…

 Migration stream—A group of migrants

having a common origin and destination in a
given migration period.

 Migration counter stream—In opposite

direction of stream.
05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 47
 Migration…

Immigration rate

 The number of immigrants arriving at a

destination per 1,000 population at that

destination in a given year.

IMR = No. of immigrants X1000

total population at destination

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 48
 Migration measures…

Emigration rate
 The number of emigrants departing an area of
origin per 1,000 population at that area of origin in
a given year

EMR = No. of emigrants X1000

total population at origin

 NInternationalMR =No. of immigrants–No. of emigrants X1000

05/28/2025
Total mid year population
by Hanan Abdulkadir 49
 Migration…

 Migration is:
Age selective – young adults tend to be more migrant
than other groups.
Sex selective – more males in long distance migration
and more females in short distance migration.
Marital status--migration is mostly selective of the
single and separated ones.

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 50

 Population growth

 It is defined as; increment/decrement of  Specifically, population

the size of the population in a given year
growth rate refers to the
as a result of natural increase and net
change in population over a
migration.

 It is the rate at which the number of unit time period, often

individuals in a population increases expressed as a percentage of

/decrease in a given time period, the number of individuals in
expressed as a fraction of the initial
the population at the
population.
beginning of that period

05/28/2025 51
 Population growth

There are two mechanisms • A positive growth rate indicates that

by which population change, the population is increasing, while a

negative growth rate indicates that

 Natural change
the population is decreasing.
 Net migration • A growth ratio of zero indicates that

there were the same number of

 Total Growth Rate
individuals at the beginning and end
= Natural change + Net of the period
Migration X 100
Total
Population
05/28/2025 52
• A population has a birth rate of 200/1000
individuals , a death rate of 100/1000
individuals, an immigration rate of 50/1000
individuals, and an emigration rate of 10/1000
individuals. ‘
• What is the grwoth rate of this population
populations

05/28/2025 53
 population projection

• population projection is:

– An extrapolation of historical data into the
future
– An attempt to describe what is likely to happen
under certain explicit assumptions about the
future as related to the immediate past

05/28/2025 54
 Linear growth  Exponential growth
adding the same amount in • an initial population
each unit of time increases by the same
• Pt = P0 + bt percentage
• =P1 + ( B – D) + ( I -E) • Pt = P0(ert)
 Geometric growth e=2.718281828459.
• population change that
differs by a consistent
ratio over time
• Pt = P0 (1+ r)t

05/28/2025 55
• a population of Arba Minch town grows by 15
% per year. if the population was 100000 in
the year 2015, fin the projected popilation in
2020.
• Ethiopia has a population growth rate of 2.55.
If ther were 120 million people in the year
2015, when will there be 300 million people
ethiopia

05/28/2025 56
 Doubling time
 The doubling time of a population is the number of years it
would take for a population to double in size if the present rate
of growth remained unchanged.
 A more vivid way of showing population growth is to
calculate how long ,as its current growth rate , a population
would take to double in size
 Its purpose has been to emphasize how quickly populations
can grow, doubling their numbers geometrically.
 Doubling Time = 70/r or ln2 /r
05/28/2025 57
 Exercise Doubling Time

• Arba Minch town has a population of 50,000. If the growth rate

of Arba Minch town is 2%, then how long will it take for the
population of Arba Minch town to double. What is Doubling
time (in years) ?

05/28/2025 58
 POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF MIGRATION

1. Positive effects

 As people migrate to urban centers the productivity and

per capita income of the agricultural population will

increase.

 Ingestion of investable funds in their small farms.

 Supplementary and complementary economic activities

may also develop.

 Information flow to rural

05/28/2025 by Hananareas.
Abdulkadir 59
 2. Negative effects

On the infrastructure

On the environment

Imbalance in male and female ratio

On social security

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 60

 Effects…
Unskilled rural-urban migrants are most likely to
accept the so called 3-D
dirty,
dangerous,
difficult jobs in urban areas, either inside their countries or
abroad
 Physical and cultural transitions when they move to
cities may cost them a lot.

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 61

 MIGRATION AND HEALTH

 The interaction between health and migration is

a complex and dynamic one that is influenced by:
 the socio-economic and cultural background of migrants,
 their previous health history, and
 the nature and quality of the health care situation they
had access prior to moving.

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 62

 Cont…
 It is also influenced by the circumstances surrounding
the migration itself and then the social and health
characteristics of re-settlement.
 The process of migration introduces threats to
psychosocial health and well being in a number of
ways.
 The decision to move, for example, is often replete
with fear of the unknown, about those being left
behind, and a sense of impending loss.
05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 63
 Cont…

 Some observers have termed it as a type of

cultural death that seriously affects:
 the well being of migrants and
 their capacity to settle elsewhere, especially where there
are additional obstacles of language, culture as well as
policies and practices.

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 64

 Cont…
 As all people do, migrants carry with them the
health “footprints” of the countries and social
environments they come from.
 The health and social living conditions of
migrants have drawn concern from both a
human rights and public health point of view.

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 65

 Cont…
 Few diseases have provoked the concern that has
surrounded HIV/AIDS, including the fear that
people from parts of the world with high HIV
infection rates are likely to bring the disease with
them.
 The movement of people from different regions
of the world can also mean a movement of
genetic diseases.
05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 66
 Cont…
 The health dimensions of migration received
relatively little attention from either receiving
countries.

 Thus, with the exception of concern for the health

of refugees in conflict and post conflict settings, the
health of people on the move has remained a
neglected field
05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 67
 Summary

• Migration is an important element in the growth of

the population and the labor force of an area

• International and internal migration are the two

broad types of migration

• The measurement and analysis of migration are

important in the preparation of population
estimates and projections
05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 68
 URBANIZATION

 It is growth of the proportion of people living in urban

areas.

 The world is undergoing the largest wave of urban

growth in history.

 In 2008, for the first time in history, more than half of

the world’s population were living in towns and cities.

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 69

 Cont…
 By 2030 this number will swell to almost 5 billion,
with urban growth concentrated in Africa and
Asia.
 In principle, cities offer a more favorable setting
for the resolution of social and environmental
problems than rural areas.
 Cities generate jobs and income.
05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 70
 Cont…

 Cities can deliver education, health care and

other services more efficiently than less densely

settled areas.
 Cities also present opportunities for social

mobilization and women’s empowerment.

 The density of urban life can relieve pressure on

natural habitats and areas of biodiversity.

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 71
 Cont…

 Fertility rates are lower in urban than in rural

areas throughout the world.

 However, the fact that such large percentages of

people in many developing countries are young

means that urban population growth will

continue rapidly for years to come.

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 72
 Cont…

 Migration is also a significant contributor to urbanization, as

people move in search of social and economic opportunity.

 B/c environmental degradation and conflict may drive people off

the land.

 Often people who leave the countryside to find better lives in the

city have no choice, where they lack access to decent housing,

sanitation, health care and education.

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 73

 Cont…
 Poverty is now growing faster in urban than in rural areas.

 One billion people live in urban slums, which are typically

overcrowded, polluted and dangerous, and lack basic services such

as clean water and sanitation.

 For the most part, rich countries are already urbanized, and most of

the expected urban growth will occur in less-developed regions,

which have fewer resources for coping with the scale of the

change.
05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 74
 Adverse effects of Urbanization:

 There is increasing competition for facilities due

to the high standard of living in urban areas,
which has triggered several negative effects:-
overcrowding and its consequences of overcrowding.

Lack of sanitation

Poverty

Illiteracy
05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 75
 Cont…
Unemployment and Crime is the worst impact of
urbanization.
Global warming, air pollution, water scarcity and
pollution and loss of forest cover, agricultural land
and depletion of wildlife as a result of urban
extension, pose serious threats to the environment.
Waste are a major problem in large cities.

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 76

 Cont…
 Air pollution results from over-dependence on motorized
transport and from burning of coal to supply energy.
 Water pollution results from poor sewage facilities and
disposal of industrial heavy metals into waterways.
 Vast quantities of solid waste are produced in industries.

 Traffic congestion and noise pollution are major

environmental impacts of large cities.

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 77

 Population Composition

05/28/2025 78
 Structure of Population

 Population Structure is the distribution of the population

among its age and sex groupings and is diagnosed with an
Age-Sex Pyramid.
 Structure of Population has important implications for labor
force size and productivity and raises as well the issue of the
dependency burden.

05/28/2025 79
 Age-sex Composition of population

 Demographically, Age and Sex are the most basic characteristics

of a population &represents the starting point for many studies.

 Demographers are interested in the age-sex composition of

population particularly the ages at which people engaged in

certain behaviors( getting married, having birth etc.).

 Analysis of age-sex composition of population is an essential for

demographic investigation.

05/28/2025 80
 Cont…
 More over the age-sex composition of the population is
central to understanding the nature and functioning of
societies.
 In Africa , nearly half (50%) of the population are under
15 years of age , compared with only 20% in Europe.
 The high proportion of children in African countries
immediately implies in-built potential for rapid
population growth, as well as great and continuing need
for investment in education and employment.
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 Cont…

 In contrast, European countries are experiencing rapid

growth in the numbers of older people, creating concerns
about the funding of pensions and health services.

 Age-sex structure further reflects the overall outcome of

the processes of fertility, mortality and migration.
 They therefore give insights in to causes of population
change.
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 Graphing and Summarizing statistics on age-sex composition

 Obtaining information on the age and sex structure of a

population and plotting the information on a graph is often
the first step in seeking to understand the nature of processes
affecting populations.

 For convenience in summarizing and graphing statistics on

age, five year grouping of ages is widely employed instead of
single year ages.

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 Cont…

 The quality of statistics on age depends

substantially upon whether people know when
they were born & whether they are inclined to
understate or exaggerate their ages.
 Misstatement of age is evident in preferences for
ages ending in 0 or 5,which can lead to
appreciable age concentration at particular
values.
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 Graphing age-sex composition
Population Pyramid

 Population pyramid graphically presents the population of an area

or country in terms of its composition by age and sex at a point in
time.
 The pyramid consists of a series of bars, each drawn
proportionately to represent the relative contribution of each age-
sex group (often in five-year groupings) to the total population.
 By convention, males are shown on the left of the pyramid, females on the
right, young persons at the bottom, and the elderly at the top.

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 Age sex composition cont….
 Populations of countries can differ markedly as a result of past and
current patterns of fertility, mortality, and migration.
 However, they all tend to fall into three general profiles of age-sex
composition.
1. Rapid growth is indicated by a pyramid with a large percentage
of people in the younger ages.
2. Slow growth is reflected by a pyramid with a smaller proportion
of the population in the younger ages.
3. Zero growth or decreasing populations are shown by roughly
equal numbers of people in all age ranges.
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 Type of populations
• Population may be categorized in to three major groups on
their state of expansion
• Type I-Expansive
• Type II-Stationary
• Type III-Constrictive

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 Type of populations
a. Expansive type
 It is a triangular(broad-base and narrow apex) pattern of

a pyramid reflects a high birth rate over a long period of

time.
 In Expansive type only a small proportion of persons

have survived into the older age groups and a large

percentage of people are in the younger ages; as a result
the median age is relatively young.
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 Type of populations

 The expansive structure is typically characterized by:

 High fertility and
 High mortality rate
 a rapid population growth rate.
 high dependency ratio(High proportion of children)
 This is characteristics of traditional poor countries mostly
for Africa and Asia.

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 Age sex composition cont….

• Population Pyramid – Expansive type

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 Type of populations
b. constrictive type(bell shaped polygon)
 It has a narrow base & a narrow apex(as compared to the middle of
the pyramid). It is characterized by a recent decline in fertility,
leading to slow PGR(r), high life expectancy &high median ages.

• Population Pyramid – Slow Population Growth-bell shaped

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 Age sex composition cont….
c. Stationary type /rectangular polygon)
 Is characterized by constant fertility and mortality schedule
for a long period of time.
 Stationary population model assumes a zero growth rate (i.e.,
constant and equal numbers of births and deaths each year)
or
 a decreasing population where roughly equal numbers of
people in all ages but tapering of gradually at the older ages.
 The pyramid is almost of a rectangular shape .
05/28/2025
This is includes declining in fertility , declining mortality,
92
 Age sex composition cont….

• Population Pyramid – Zero or Declining Growth

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 Population Pyramid of Ethiopia

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 • Theory of Demographic Transition

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 Demographic transition is the historical shift of high birth and
death rates to low birth and death rates.
 The change in populations basically consists of a shift from an
equilibrium condition of high birth and death rates, characteristic
of agrarian societies to a newer equilibrium in which both birth
and death rates are at much lower level.
 States that birth rates and death rates tend to decline with economic
& technological progress.

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 Stages of demographic transition
STAGE ONE
Pre-industrial stage
• Birth Rate and Death rate are both high.
• Population growth is slow and fluctuating
• Characterize pre-industrial & traditional societies.

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-This pattern evolved in the 18th & 19th centuries.
Reasons for High BR
• Lack of family planning
• High Infant Mortality Rate
• Need for workers in agriculture
• Religious Beliefs
• Children as economic assets

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Death Rate is high because of:
• High levels of disease
• Famine
• Lack of clean water and sanitation
• Lack of health care
• War
• Lack of education, etc..,

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 STAGE TWO
Transitional stage

 Birth Rate remains high.

 Death Rate falling& life expectancy improves.

 During this period, a marked excess of births over deaths

developed leading to a rapid expansion of population.
• Death Rate falls as a result of:
 Improved Hygiene & sanitation

 Improved food production and storage

 Improved health care

 Improved transport for food

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 STAGE THREE
Industrial stage
 Birth Rate starts to fall.
 Death Rate continues to fall.
Reasons of decline in Birth rate:
 Family planning available
 Lower Infant Mortality Rate

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 STAGE FOUR
post-industrial stage
 Increased mechanization reduces need for workers
 Increased standard of living
 Changing status of women
 Birth Rate and Death Rate balance each other
 Population stops growing

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 Demographic transition: Stages

05/28/2025 1037.18
Figure
 Population distribution

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 Population distribution

 Definition: It is geographical or spatial

arrangements of human population.
 Population is not evenly distributed around the
earth’s surface because the distribution is based
on:
Availability of resources
soil fertility
Climatic condition and etc.
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 Cont…

 Generally population distribution can be classified

into two:
 Sparsely populated: places with a few people living with a
low population density.
Sparsely populated = Less than 100 people/ km2
 Densely populated: places that are crowded with a high
population density.
Densely populated = More than 100 people/ km2
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 Concepts of population distribution

 Over-population- whenever a reduction in the population size

would enable a smaller population to earn a better living.
 Under-population- where people are so few that they cannot
develop their resources effectively to better their conditions of life
 Carrying capacity- population that can be supported by available
resources.
 The number of individuals that a given environment can support.

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 Population density
 Population density- how much land in relation to population.
 Refers to the number of people in a certain area of land or in a given
area (km²).
 Two types of density

1. Man-land or Arithmetic Density:

 number of persons/ area
 Often unrealistic because it assumes an even distribution of
people
2. Physiological or Nutritional Density-
 number of persons/ cultivated area
 more realistic.
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 Cont…
Formula to calculate:
 Population density

Population ÷ Land area = # of people / km2

For example
What is the population density of:
Ethiopia
– Population 127,117,967
– Land Area 133,910 km2
POPULATION DENSITY = 949 people/ km2

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 Spatial Distribution

 The spatial distribution of the population

describes the degree and quality of access of a
population to land and other resources.

 The man/land ratio has been increasing over the

last several decades due to:-
 the rapid rate of population growth

the secular decline in environmental quality.

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 Variation in density of settlements

 Cities generally have high population densities while areas

such as countryside and deserts usually have low
population densities.

 Country side usually have low population densities with

few people per square kilometer.

 Cities have high population densities with high number of

people per square kilometer.
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Factors affecting Population Density and Distribution

I. Physical factors
II. Human factors

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• Physical factors:
 water supply, climate, Vegetation and soil fertility, natural
resources.
 E.g. mountainous areas or severe slope repels population and
River valleys often draw high density of population as result of
alluvial deposits and accessibility

• Human factors:
 Economic = Job opportunity

 Political =government stability

 Social = desire of people to live close to one another

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 THANK YOU!!!

05/28/2025 by Hanan Abdulkadir 114