Probability
Maths Methods- Chapter 9 Cambridge Textbook
Data Analysis, Probability and Statistics
Random experiments, sample spaces, outcomes, elementary
and compound events, random variables and the distribution
of results of experiments
Simulation using simple random generators such as coins,
dice, spinners and pseudo-random generators using
technology, and the display and interpretation of results,
including informal consideration of proportions in samples
Addition and Multiplication principles of counting
Combinations including the concept of a selection and a
computation of
and the application of counting techniques to probability
Key Knowledge and Skills
The properties that probabilities for a given sample space
are non-negative and the sum of these probabilities is one
Counting techniques and their application to probability
Set up Probability simulations and describe the notions of
randomness and variability, and their relation to events.
Apply counting techniques to solve probability problems
and calculate probabilities for compound events, by hand
in simple cases
DO NOW:
1. What can you remember about both theoretical
probability & complementary events?
2. Under what conditions theoretical probability =
Experiment P.
Learning Intention
To understand how to write sample space
To understand how to calculate probabilities and determining outcomes
Success Criteria
I can write sample space
I can find complementary events
I can find the probability of equally likely outcomes
It is possible to test a graph to see if it represents a
function by using the vertical line test. Given
Defining a function the graph of a relation, if you can draw a vertical
line that crosses the graph in more than one place,
then the relation is not a function.
• A function is a relation such that for each x-value there is only one
corresponding y-value. This means that, if (a,b) and (a,c) are ordered
pairs of a function, then b=c. In other words, a function cannot
contain two different ordered pairs with the same first coordinate.
Key Terms
Probability Probability
Event
The probability of an event is how likely that
event is to happen. A probability must have a
value in the range of 0 (impossible) to 1
(certain).
0 1
Impossible
Certain
Key Terms
Sample Space Probability
Event
Sample space
The sample space of an experiment is a list of Outcomes
the possible outcomes in the experiment.
An event is a collection of one or more
outcomes from the sample space from an
experiment.
The probabilities of all outcomes in a sample
space will add up to 1.
𝑁𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 : 0 ≤ Pr ( 𝐴 ) ≤1
Key Terms
Check for Understanding Sample space
Outcomes
You are rolling a regular 6 sided die.
What are the possible outcomes in the
sample space?
{0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5}
{6}
{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
{0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Probability
• A random experiment is an experiment in which the
outcome of a single trial is uncertain
• An outcome is the result of a single trial. An outcome
might also refer to as a sample point.
• The sample space of an experiment is the set of all
possible outcomes.
• An event is a subset of the outcomes in the sample
space.
Worked Example 1 Worked Example 2 Worked Example 3 Your Turn
List the sample space List the sample space List the sample space List the sample
when a coin is tossed in number when Ms. for the number of space for a bag of
twice Kaur will call Juliana phone calls you will marbles that have
as Julian make today. the numbers 1 to 7
written on them.
9B - Estimating Probabilities
• When the sample space is infinite, the probability of an
event is equal to the sum of the probabilities of the
outcomes in that event.
Key Terms
Theoretical probability Probability
Event
Sample space
To calculate theoretical probability, we use the Outcomes
following formula: Theoretical
probability
Favourable
outcome
This is probability notation – whenever you are
completing an answer about probability, you
should include this!
Calculating theoretical Key Vocabulary
Theoretical
probability Probability
Favourable
outcomes
To calculate probability, follow these steps.
1.Make a list of all the possible outcomes. Outcomes
2.Make a list of all the favourable outcomes Event
(the outcomes that you want). Fraction
3.Write the probability as a fraction using the Simplify
formula.
4.Simplify the fraction if possible.
Key Terms
Worked Example Outcome
Likely
Prime
Suppose a number is drawn at random from
the numbers 7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14. What is the
probability of choosing a prime number?
Key Terms
Worked Example
Complementary Events
• When two events have no elements in common and
together, they make up the entire sample space, they
are said to be complementary events.
• The complement of event A is the event A’, which
consists of all outcomes in that are not in A. since the
sum of the probabilities is 1, we can write:
Key Terms
Model answer Complementary
event
A card is drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards. What is the probability the
card is:
a) not a heart
b) not an ace
Key Terms
Model answer
Solution:
9B Estimating Probabilities
• When we are dealing with a random experiment which
does not have equally likely outcomes, other methods
of estimating probabilities are required.
9C – Multi-Stage Experiments
Probability is the subject of predicting how likely something will happen.
Sample Space is the set of all possible outcomes for an experiment
Intersection means where two things overlap and means they occur at the same time
Union means both together
Modelled Example:
Use a tree diagram to help you
List the sample space when a
Coin is tossed three times and the
Outcome of each toss is noted:
Worked Example 1: Use Tree Try this:
Diagram
A jar contains 3 red and 4 black marbles, and another jar
contains 2 red and 3 black marbles. If one marble is
selected from each jar, find the probability that two
marbles are selected.
Find the probability that the sum is greater than 9.
Worked Example 2:
A table can also be useful in multi-stage experiments:
Two dice are rolled and the sum of the numbers showing
is found.
a.) List the sample space of this experiment.
b.) Find the probability that the sum is greater than 9.
Do now
DO NOW:
.
SOLUTION:
9D/E – Combining Events/Probability
Tables
Define:
1. Venn Diagram
2. Universal Set
3. Empty Set
4. Union
5. Intersection
6. Complement
7. Disjoint or Mutually Exclusive sets
Universal Set
Probability Tables
A probability table or Karnaugh map is an alternative way to represent sets or
probabilities.
Consider the following Venn Diagram
The same information
can be represented
in the Karnaugh map:
The Addition Rule
Modelled Question
= Pr (A’) + Pr (B’)- Pr (A’)
= 0.25+0.48 – 0.13
= 0.6
Your turn:
A book is chosen at random from a bookshop. It is known that in
this bookshop:
• The probability that the book is a hardback but not a novel is
0.05
• The probability that the book is not a hardback but a novel is
0.12
• The probability that the book is not a novel is 0.19
Find the probability that randomly chosen book is
a.) A Novel
b.) A hardback novel
c.) A hard back
Chapter 9F – Conditional Probability
Worked Example 1:
Worked Example 2:
A jar contains 5 green marbles and 7 red marbles. Two marbles are selected
without replacement. G represents the event that a green marble is selected,
and R represents the event that a red marble is selected.
a.) Draw a tree diagram to represent this situation.
b.) State
Your turn:
In a particular class 55% of the students are girls, 35% of the girls in the class
play soccer and 70% of the boys play soccer. A student is chosen at random
from the class. If G represents the event that a girl is chosen and S represents
the event that the student plays soccer, Find:
9G – Independent Events
In Other words:
What is Pr (A/B)?
Basically Probability of
event A given the event B has occurred:
What if they are independent
then condition doesn’t matter – means A is non-impacted by B.
Worked Example 1:
Solution:
Check for Understanding:
