Renewable Energy in India: Status and Future Prospects
the time is running outsoon, there will be nothing left to burn on earth but earth itself
By: Pushkar Shanker Dept. of Electrical Engineering Guru Nanak Dev Engineering College
ENERGY IN INDIA: AN OVERVIEW
India consumes 3.7% of the worlds commercial energy making it the 5th largest consumer of energy globally. Total installed capacity of 1,44,912 MW. 350 kgoe per capita primary commercial energy consumption. 22% of world average. Per capita electricity consumption: 600 kWhr per year. About 80% of total rural energy consumption comes from non-commercial energy. 84% villages electrified. 44% of rural households electrified.
INDIAN POWER SECTOR
Source: Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
ENERGY CONSUMPTION TREND
ENERGY SCENARIO IN INDIA
Rapid economic development & Increasing population = High demand for Energy A sustained 8% GDP growth of India requires an annual increase of:
a) Commercial energy supply from 3.7% to 6.1% b) Total primary energy supply from 2.2% to 5.1%
Limited supply of COAL, coupled with its poor quality, low level of technologies advancements and high environmental hazards. Limited domestic reserves and uncertain foreign supply of hydrocarbons.
WHY RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR INDIA?
Power
shortage Rising Prices of Oils & Gases Ecological Hazards Ample resources and sites available Abundant sunshine Government incentive Increased financing options
BENEFITS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
Avoid the high costs involved in transmission capex. Avoid distribution losses Technical & otherwise Avoid recurring fuel cost Boost the rural economy Encourage self help groups & self dependence Enable village co-operatives to supply and / or monitor distribution Make available much needed energy for basic needs at the doorstep at affordable prices.
INSTALLED CAPACITY FROM RENEWABLE ENERGY
Source: Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
CURRENT FOCUS
Promoting rural energy for productive uses and linked social benefits Promoting renewable energy for rural electrification and industrial applications Enhancing access of the rural poor to affordable and sustainable energy services Supporting training and capacity building for manufacture, local assembly and maintenance of renewable energy technologies / systems Organizing global forum activities and providing strategic expert advice on renewable energy technologies and energy policy planning and institutional framework
RENEWABLE ENERGY DEPLOYMENT
Wind installation (global) Indias share (and position) 60,000 MW (cumulative) 6270 MW(fourth in the world)
SPV cell production (global)
Indias share (and position) Biogas plants (global) Indias share (and position) Solar Thermal (global) Indias share (and position)
Source: Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
1,700 MW (in 2005)
37 MW (seventh in the world) 16 million units (cumulative) 3.9 million family size units (second in the world) 110 million sq.m (cumulative) 1.65 million sq. m (ninth in the world)
INDIA RENEWABLE POWER POTENTIAL
Renewable Resource
Wind Power
Estimated Potential
45,000 MW
Remarks
Sites with wind densities of 300 W/m2 or higher with 9% of assessed area available for wind farms requiring 12 ha/MW. 20 mha of wastelands yielding 10 MT/ha/annum of woody biomass giving 4000 kcal/ kg with system efficiency of 30% and operating at 75% PLF. Assuming solar energy: 4-6 kWhr/ m2/ day and depending upon future developments making solar technology cost-competitive for grid power applications.
Biomass Power
45,000 MW
Solar Power
50,000 MW
Small Hydro Power Bio-Energy
15,000 MW 24,000 MW
Source: Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
COMMERCIAL ENERGY IMPORTS FOR 8% GDP
Fuel Range of Requirement in Scenarios 350486 100197 632-1022 1351-1702 Assumed Domestic Production 35 100 560 ---Range of Import Imports (Percent)
Oil (Mt) Natural Gas (Mtoe) Coal (Mtoe) Total Commercial Primary Energy
315451 0-97 72-462
9093 0-49 11-45
387-1,010 29-59
Source: Energy Policy Report, Planning Commission, India
INDIA AN ATTRACTIVE RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET
India has a large potential for energy generation by utilization of renewable energy source MNRE has planed a target capacity addition of 10,000 MW during the 11th five year plan
10% of annual power capacity additions to be from Renewable between 2003-2012
As per the E&Ys renewable energy index, which takes into account various factors governing renewable energy growth in a country, India is ranked 3rd overall. High potential for development across various renewable source
INDIAN WIND ENERGY SECTOR OVERVIEW
CURRENT SCENARIO
4th largest producers of wind energy in the world. Indias current installed wind capacity is 8.7 GW (approx. 10% of the worlds total installed capacity). Capacity growth has been strong with a 22% CAGR over last decade. Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra & Karnataka are the leaders in wind capacity.
INDIAN WIND ENERGY SECTOR OVERVIEW
FUTURE POTENTIAL
Cumulative installed capacity is expected to reach 12 GW by 2010. Generation based subsidy of Rs 0.50per unit recently announced for 10 years (limit of 5 MW per developer and 50 MW in aggregate).
KEY TREND IN INDIA WIND ENERGY INDUSTRY
Manufacturer Value Chain
Manufacturing Erecting & Commissioning Guarantees & Maintenance
Developer Chain
Site Identification
Contracts & Clearances
Operation
All players in India undertaking a Dual Role Manufacturing & Developer Various Indian Companies are looking to enter the sector Infrastructure Developers Electrical Equipment Manufacturers
INDIAN SOLAR ENERGY MARKET OVERVIEW
MASSIVE POTENTIAL OF INDIA
Huge potential for Solar Energy development in India High sunshine days, abundance of sites make soalr energy an enticing prospect
MARKET IN GROWTH STAGE
Installed manufacturing capacity has grown from a meager 10 MW in 2000 to a total of 335 MW by 2007. India is now 7th worldwide in Solar PV Cell production Generation capacities expected to pick up with generation linked subsidy announced by government
KEY TRENDS IN INDIAN SOLAR INDUSTRY
EXPANSION ACROSS THE BOARD
Various existing players planning Brownfield expansion. Huge new Greenfield facilities being planned.
KEY DRIVERS INCLUDE:
Low operating costs Capital subsidy (20/25%) by government for large semi-conductor based units (for large investments above certain limits) Possibility of Solar Energy development locally. Public and private capital in abundant supply.
INDIAN HYDRO POWER SECTOR OVERVIEW
POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO POWER GENERATION
India ranks 8th in terms of hydro-electricity generated Potential to provide energy in remote and hilly areas where extension of an electrical transmission grid system is uneconomical Till now, 14 States have announced policies for setting up commercial SHP projects.
KEY POSITIVE
Proven Technology Low O&M Costs High energy conversion efficiency (70%)
INDIAN HYDRO POWER SECTOR OVERVIEW
KEY DRAWBACKS
High gestation period High capital costs (per MW) Social Costs
FUTURE POTENTIAL Hydro capacity expected to reach 57 GW by 2012. Small hydro potential is expected close to 15 GW. MNRE has introduced subsidy schemes for SHPs up to 25 MW. Well-established manufacturing base for full range and type of small hydro equipments.
BIOMASS ENERGY OVERVIEW
Agricultural Crops and Residues Oil Bearing Plants Bio Mass Woody Biomass Resources Industrial and Municipal Waste Harvesting Collection Handling Storage
Supply System
Biochemical Thermo chemical Conversion Physical/Chemical
End Products
Heat Electricity Transport Fuels Solid Fuels
INDIAN BIOMASS MARKET OVERVIEW
CHALLENGES
POTENTIAL
DRIVERS
Small sized Dependence on agricultural output Insecure raw material linkage Shortage of equipment Lack of cheap financing, both debt & equity Currently, few focused biomass players
20 GW of power may be generated from 300 MT of agro waste (currently produced) 50% currently burnt in the open Less than 3% potential realized Can revolutionize pace of rural electrification.
Agro based economy Large, Unexploited domestic resource Favorably aligned regulatory environment Simple technology Power deficit across states
SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL RETURNS IN RE BASE GENERATION PROJECTS
Given the comparatively higher cost of generating energy from renewable sources, necessity for financial support for the industry. Government has introduced subsidies to make returns attractive for developers. Indicative expected returns:
Type of Project Returns
Wind 5-6 20-25
Hydro (PPA) 5-6 15-18
Hydro (Merchant) 5-6 20-25
Biomass 4-5 16-20
Solar 18-20 --
Costs (Rs. Cr/MW) Equity IRR
THANK YOU
By: Pushkar Shanker Department of Electrical Engineering Guru Nanak Dev Engineering College Gill Park, Ludhiana.
