Probability
Probability
• Probability means possibility. It is a branch of mathematics that deals
with the occurrence of a random event. The value is expressed from
zero to one.
• Probability has been introduced in Maths to predict how likely events
are to happen.
• The meaning of probability is basically the extent to which something
is likely to happen. This is the basic probability theory, which is also
used in the probability distribution, where you will learn the
possibility of outcomes for a random experiment.
• To find the probability of a single event to occur, first, we should know
the total number of possible outcomes.
Example
• For example, when we toss a coin, either we get Head OR Tail, only two possible
outcomes are possible (H, T). But when two coins are tossed then there will be four
possible outcomes, i.e {(H, H), (H, T), (T, H), (T, T)}.
Formula for Probability
• The probability formula is defined as the possibility of an event to happen is equal to
the ratio of the number of favourable outcomes and the total number of outcomes.
Probability of event to happen P(E) =
Number of favourable outcomes/Total Number of outcomes
• Sometimes students get mistaken for “favourable outcome” with “desirable
outcome”. This is the basic formula. But there are some more formulas for different
situations or events.
Probability Term and Definition
Terminology
Term Definition Example
Sample Space The set of all the possible outcomes to 1.Tossing a coin, Sample Space (S) = {H,T}
occur in any trial 2.Rolling a die, Sample Space (S) = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Sample Point It is one of the possible results In a deck of Cards:
•4 of hearts is a sample point.
•The queen of clubs is a sample point.
Experiment or A series of actions where the outcomes The tossing of a coin, Selecting a card from a deck of
Trial are always uncertain. cards, throwing a dice.
Event It is a single outcome of an experiment. Getting a Heads while tossing a coin is an event.
Outcome Possible result of a trial/experiment T (tail) is a possible outcome when a coin is tossed.
Complimentary The non-happening events. The In a standard 52-card deck, A = Draw a heart, then A’ =
event complement of an event A is the event, Don’t draw a heart
not A (or A’)
Impossible Event The event cannot happen In tossing a coin, impossible to get both head and tail at
the same time
Types of Probability
Theoretical Experimental
Probability Probability
Axiomatic
Probability
• Theoretical Probability
It is based on the possible chances of something to happen. The theoretical probability
is mainly based on the reasoning behind probability. For example, if a coin is tossed, the
theoretical probability of getting a head will be ½.
• Experimental Probability
It is based on the basis of the observations of an experiment. The
experimental probability can be calculated based on the number of possible outcomes by the
total number of trials. For example, if a coin is tossed 10 times and head is recorded 6 times
then, the experimental probability for heads is 6/10 or, 3/5.
• Axiomatic Probability
In axiomatic probability, a set of rules or axioms are set which applies to all types.
These axioms are set by Kolmogorov and are known as Kolmogorov’s three axioms. With the
axiomatic approach to probability, the chances of occurrence or non-occurrence of the events
can be quantified. The axiomatic probability lesson covers this concept in detail with
Kolmogorov’s three rules (axioms) along with various examples.
• Conditional Probability is the likelihood of an event or outcome occurring based on the
occurrence of a previous event or outcome.
Probability of an Event
• Assume an event E can occur in r ways out of a sum of n probable or
possible equally likely ways. Then the probability of happening of the
event or its success is expressed as;
P(E) = r/n
• The probability that the event will not occur or known as its failure is
expressed as:
P(E’) = (n-r)/n = 1-(r/n)
• E’ represents that the event will not occur.
• Therefore, now we can say;
P(E) + P(E’) = 1
• This means that the total of all the probabilities in any random test or
experiment is equal to 1.
• Major Applications of Probability
• It is used for risk assessment and modelling in various industries
• Weather forecasting or prediction of weather changes
• Probability of a team winning in a sport based on players and strength
of team
• In the share market, chances of getting the hike of share prices
1Q: List out some major business applications of probability.
Any queries…?
THANK YOU
