Afghanistan Climate Smart

Agriculture Action Plan

 Outline
1. 2. 3. 4.
Objectives and Status of the Agrifood The CSA Solutions and Next Steps
Methodology of the System Investment Costs
CSAAP
 Objectives

• To identify the climate-smart agriculture (CSA) investments that offer the

greatest potential to transform Afghanistan's agriculture and food systems
into a more productive and climate-resilient sector

• Major focus is on informing the next generation of agriculture and food

investments that could contribute to food security and economic
recovery beginning from the EFSP.
 Methodology: 4 Key Steps

1. Background analysis and data collection

o Comprehensive literature review was conducted, covering key agricultural
subsectors, including government and development agency reports
o FAO/IIASA land cover data and climate modeling, DIEM household surveys
o Expert engagement through FGDs and questionnaires
o Horticulture value chain study with national consultants
o Building resilient food system study with national consultants
 Methodology: 4 Key Steps

2. Identification of Key Issues and Investment Priorities

o Identified key elements of Afghanistan’s food system to define intervention
priorities
o Agroecological Zones and Livelihoods Analyses
o Framing of sector-wide priorities and aligning with existing plans
o Stakeholder consultations to provide insights into both short- and long-term needs
for different regions
 Methodology: 4 Key Steps

3. Screening and Development of Investment Packages

o Reviewed past and ongoing investment projects funded by Development Partners
o Extracted lessons on outcomes, costs, feasibility, and institutional capacity
considerations under pre-2021 conditions
o Established prioritization criteria and scoring system focusing on productivity
improvements, jobs creation, income generation, social inclusion, climate resilience,
and environmental sustainability
o Validation workshop (June 2024) and technical stakeholder review (September 2024)
 Methodology: 4 Key Steps

4. Scaling up and Investment Implications

o Estimated financing needs and cost of inaction
o Assessed the scale of production increases required to address food security
challenges, with and without CSA
o Assessed private sector investment opportunities and capital requirements across
geographic zones
o Assessed environmental externalities through Greenhouse Gas analyses
 • 11.6 million (25% population) experiencing
high levels of acute food insecurity

2. • 2 million (35%) under 5 stunted children

Status of Agrifood • Climate shocks and economic instability are
Systems in Afghanistan worsening the crisis

Afghanistan ranks among the top 5 • Afghanistan ranks 4th among countries most
food insecure countries requiring
at risk of climate-related crises and 7th in
support to prevent further
deterioration of food and nutrition vulnerability with minimal coping capacity
security
• The frequency of droughts has risen from
once every three years (1986–2012) to every
other year (2013–2023)
 Big Data and Machine Learning Predict the Probability of
Food Crises in Afghanistan

Climate and economic factors are major

drivers of food insecurity, leaving
vulnerable households at risk.

https://tinyurl.com/2ddtu67r

• Floods cause immediate crop and infrastructure damage, while droughts

exacerbate water scarcity and lower crop yields, driving up food prices
and lowering agricultural wages
• Inflation and currency depreciation, further reduce the purchasing
power of consumers and strain affordability.
• These combined challenges leave vulnerable households particularly at
risk.
 Agroecological–Livelihood Zones for Targeting Interventions

Five distinct zones based on irrigation

access, landholding sizes, population
densities, and livestock ownership
 Climate Change Predictions for the Agroecological–Livelihood Zones

Projected Climate Impacts

• Higher seasonal and annual temperatures everywhere in Afghanistan

(0.9 to 2.2 degrees C), with generally decreasing annual rainfall.
• Warming is seen as an opportunity to increase cropping intensity in the
northeastern, central and west-central regions
• Warming is seen as a threat in low-lying southern parts of the country
with potential adverse impact on production even under irrigation
conditions
 Climate Change Impacts on Wheat Production

Projected Climate Impacts

 Climate Change Impacts on Rice Production

Projected Climate Impacts

 Climate Change Impacts on Irrigation Demand for Rice

Projected Climate Impacts

• Under more intense climate change scenarios, irrigation water demand

will increase significantly in regions where production conditions
improve the most

• Conversely, severe climate change will negatively impact rice production

potential in several other regions, leading to a decline in overall
irrigation water demand for rice due to reduced production capacity
 Climate Change Impacts on Fruits Cultivation

Projected Climate Impacts

• As the frost-free area expands, the long-term potential for citrus

production will increase significantly in the Southeastern region and,
notably, in the Central and West-Central regions—where citrus
cultivation was not previously possible under historical climate
conditions.
• However, the traditional citrus-growing hub in the Eastern region will
gradually become less suitable due to rising temperatures
 • Investing in climate resilience is an urgent, agenda
for Afghanistan

3. • Agrifood systems offer the best synergies between

development and climate action, advancing
CSA Solutions and
national growth, food security, and climate goals
Investment Costs
• Beyond emergency aid, Afghanistan must
prioritize long-term resilience by diversifying
agriculture, promoting sustainable farming,
strengthening value chains through the private
sector, and enhancing climate early warning
systems.
Interventions for Building Resilient Food Systems

Short-term emergency support by restoring production and supporting livelihoods

Promote the use of climate-resilient crop and livestock technologies, advisory services,
insurance and other financing products

Diversify production systems through horticulture and value-added products to

improve nutrition and incomes

Leverage private sector investment in technology and agrologistics

Develop irrigation capacities and promote efficient water management

technologies
This aligns with MAIL request for investment and TA support shared
with UNAMA
Adaptation phases for Climate-Resilient Food Systems

To effectively build resilience in Afghanistan’s food systems; adaptation must occur in 3

overlapping phases over different timescales.

1. Short-term (1–5 years): Incremental adaptation focused on immediate risk reduction

and efficiency improvements within the existing food system.

2. Medium-term (6–10 years): Systemic adaptation addressing broader institutional,

policy, and market barriers to enhance resilience across the food system.

3. Long-term (10+ years): Transformative adaptation involving fundamental shifts in

Afghanistan’s food systems, restructuring agricultural landscapes, value chains, and
livelihoods for climate resilience
 Adaptation phases and Implementation Considerations

Adaptation phase Typical interventions Implementation considerations

Incremental Short term,  Climate-resilient crops.  Requires minimal policy change but depends on
1–5  Strengthening animal health services and improved fodder training, local knowledge, and availability of resources.
management  Can be rapidly implemented through local extension
 Use of better post-harvest storage techniques services, NGOs, and farmer cooperatives.
 Water conservation techniques  Provides immediate relief but has limited long-term
transformative impact.
Systemic Medium term,  Agroecological and integrated farming systems Investments in  Requires policy reforms, institutional coordination, and
6 – 10 roads, cold storage, irrigation networks, and food processing significant financial investment.
units  Impact begins in the medium term but lays the
 Land tenure reforms. foundation for long-term resilience
 Microfinance solutions for smallholder farmers  Can be supported by public-private partnerships
 Improving early warning systems. (PPPs), donor funding, and government-led programs
Transformative Long term,  Large-scale landscape restoration.  Requires strong governance, sustained financial
> 10  Economic and livelihood transitions investment, and institutional support.
 Large-scale water management and irrigation overhaul  Impact is multi-generational, ensuring long-term food
security and resilience.
 Requires international cooperation, technology
transfer, and climate finance investments.
Investment Costs (US$ Million)
4.
Action versus Inaction Costs (US$ Million)
4.
Next Steps

1. World Bank internal reviews

2. Finalize Report Preparation

3. Dissemination
Thank you!