Predicting a winner between the android and the i os
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The document compares the Android and iOS platforms across several assets to predict a winner. It finds the platforms tied based on a quantitative analysis, with both scoring 23 points. However, the conclusion is that Android will power its way to the top of the mobile market within two years. This is because Android has greater global penetration more widely spread than iOS, which will eventually tilt the balance in its favor.
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Predicting a winner between the android and the i os
- 1. Predicting a winner between the ANDROID and the iOS Brief background to the war The battle for the mobile devices began when Apple launched their “iPHONE” SDK in March 2008. This SDK was used by Apple to launch the first iPHONE in 2007, and its acceptance by the early “innovators” , the MAC Geeks, ensured that its unique features were quickly embraced by the early adopters, and the chasm between them and the early majority was easily crossed. The fact that the marketing by Apple monopolized this space, did not deter the iPHONE to go from strength to strength in a matter of months! This blitzkrieg shocked and awed its rivals in the business. Google unveiled its ANDROID OS in 2007 with the founding of the Open Handsets Alliance, which was a consortium of 86 hardware, software and telecom companies. The first commercial ANDROID device was the HTC Dream, which was released in Oct , 2008. The HTC device, unlike the iPHONE, was available for retail across the globe and since then a slew of devices and hardware manufacturers have uses the platform to launch mobile devices. iOS created a closed eco-system (iTunes) by recognizing the traction is had managed to generate, especially with the launch of its iPHONE, and quickly seized the first mover advantage that it had over its ANDROID rivals. A counterattack from the ANDROID camp was late and not up to the expected levels by the consumers. Current scenario The mobile devices market consists of the following product categories, sold globally Smart phones Tablets Phablets Users of feature phones are gravitating to smart phones (US , Japan and EU markets), and those who use basic phones today, are moving to feature phones (India , China), as a final stepping stone to smart phones in the future- this migration and traction is not lost on the mobile eco-system stakeholders, consisting of the hardware manufacturers, software developers and the telecom enterprises. The ANDROID versus iOS competitive position iOS COMPATIBLE INCOMPATIBLE COMPATIBLE RIVAL EVOLUTION EVOLUTIONS VERSUS ANDROID REVOLUTION INCOMPATIBL REVOLUTION RIVAL VERSUS REVOLUTIONS E EVOLUTION
- 2. According to my assessment, both ANDROID and the iOS are rival revolutionary technologies. These 2 technology platforms provided the technology support to seamlessly transition from the “feature phone” category to a true “smart phone”. While the iOS has remained a closed source technology, the ANDROID is an open source, Linux kernel based, flexible, robust alternative. In order to provide a basis for our prediction of who the final winner of this war would be, lets use the standards assets framework to compare the 2 platforms and assess who the most likely winner of this would be. About the assets framework The assets framework is a comparative tool used to assess the strength of one platform versus that of the other. This framework is used for qualitative analysis of the competing technologies; however for the purposes of this specific analysis, a quantitative methodology will be used. A quantitative methodology can be used by the analyst to provide support to the argument, for or against, based on the research results, while assuming equal weight to each parameter. A scale of 1-5, will be used for each asset, 1 for low and 5 for high marks. ASSET 1- CONTROL OVER INSTALLED USER BASE According to the IDC report tabled in May 2012, ANDROID was the leading platform in the smart phones market at an astounding 59%, followed by 23% for the iOS. This is a global perspective. However, when we look at the overall MOBILE DEVICES market, we observe that the ANDROID lags far behind its rival because of 1 product category- the tablet, the iPAD. From 2007 till date, Apple has sold an estimated 450 million devices in all, whereas ANDROID has sold an estimated 400 million devices. By comparing the figures available for smart phones from IDC and the above statement, we know that APPLE continues to dominate in the tablet market. According to IDC, Apple had 68% of the global tablet market using its
- 3. iOS operating system as of May 2012, whereas Android share of the tablets market dropped from 39% to 32% as of May 2012. Prognosis Both operating systems have almost the same number of global user base. While ANDROID continues to grow at a fast pace and dominate the smart phone market, it is blanked out in the tablets market by its rivals. ANDROID- For its rapid penetration in the smart phone market I will give it a 3, because it is performing poorly in the tablet market. iOS- For its continued domination of the tablet market, but slipping market share in the smart phones category, I will give it a 3. ASSET 2- INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS The ANDROID technology provides a robust and flexible platform to the developer, whereas the iOS source code is a closely protected platform, available to a discerning few. The recent global battles between Apple and its rivals using ANDROID platforms have shown that its evenly poised at the moment- in some markets Apple wins, and in others it loses. This is an inflexion point for the rival platforms- iOS, will try to cultivate and grow its walled garden, the iTunes, whereas, the Open Handsets Alliance will continue to “democratize” this space , while developing innovative means to monetize and commercialize its value offer to the global consumer. Applications and software based on both these rival platforms have patent protection, however the key difference will be based on the number of path breaking patents that each platform can potentially deliver in the future. Prognosis- ANDROID- This platform is open source and has a unique combination of being robust and flexible at the same time. Open source coding opens its potential to provide innovations far higher by virtue of its exposure to a very large developer community. I will therefore give this platform a 4. iOS- This continues to be an closed source platform, available to a limited community. While today it may have traction because of the network effects, at the tipping point, when the rival devices overtake this platform, there is a high probability that allegiances will be stressed and the developer community may go over to the rival camp. This therefore limits the capacity of this platform to provide continuous innovations and patents in the future- for this I give this platform a 3. ASSET 3- ABILITY TO INNOVATE The innovation capability of the both the rival eco-systems are superb. It’s a headlong battle for Apps, for product design, for launches and innovative marketing initiatives are the support system. When SIRI was launched in the iPhone 4S, it was the WOW that propelled revenues; circa 2012, we find rivals in the space, namely, Google assistant, Cluzee, Evi, S-Voice etc all in a matter of months! ANDROID has the superior capability to offer contextual search through Google search, where as the iOS has its developer community deploying innovative products that stitch social and personal together, seamlessly. However, the big difference is again, the availability of these rival platforms to the developers community and the impact of the network effects on the allegiance of the developers community.
- 4. Prognosis- ANDROID- Open source coding opens its potential to a very large community of developers. The potential can be amplified many times , if the ANDROID platform overtakes its rival, and the network effects take over. There is a high probability that if the consumer networks grow for this platform, developers will switch. I will therefore give this platform a 4. iOS- While today it may have traction because of the network effects, at the tipping point, when the rival devices overtake this platform, there is a high probability that allegiances will be stressed and the developer community may switch. This therefore limits the capacity of this platform to provide continuous innovations in the future- for this I give this platform a 3. ASSET 4- FIRST MOVER ADVANTAGE Both the rival standards were launched at about the same time. Both launched products based on these platforms at about the same time. Therefore there is not much to choose from on this parameter. Prognosis- ANDROID- Launched in 2007, first product launched in 2008. Score 3 iOS- launched in 2007, official release to developers in 2008, first iPhone in 2007. Score 3 ASSET 5- MANUFACTURING CAPABILITIES While Apple has used outsourced manufacturing from mainland China and Taiwan to produce its line of devices that use the iOS platform, its rival camps have their own strengths. Samsung, HTC and LG have leveraged their economies of scale to bring cutting edge products of their own at very competitive prices, thus generating traction with their ANDROID devices. However it has to be noted that recently Apple was hauled up for poor working conditions at its major outsourced manufacturer, FOXCONN and there were reports of labor unrest. It also pertinent to note that its rivals , also happen to be its suppliers- Samsung supplies memory chips to Apple for their devices. It is easy to submit that in-house manufacturing has major competitive advantages, especially when the stakes are as high as this. Prognosis- ANDROID- Hardware manufacturers especially have very tight control over their manufacturing operations, which are in house. Plus, they are suppliers to the rival camp. Score 4. iOS- Since the manufacturing is outsourced, the remote management of best practices, systems, laws , quality etc can become a major issue if the growth continues on track- it is highly likely that something will give way if the stress increases, which in all likelihood it will. Add to that their suppliers being their rivals in the same battlefield. Score 3. ASSET 6- STRENGTH IN COMPLEMENTS The iOS led to the creation of an entire eco-system of developers and content providers, the iTunes. With the iPod touch and then with the tremendous traction with the launch of the iPhone in 2007, it was clear that content would drive the business and the revenues. Apple seized the initiative and invested heavily in developing its own , controlled , “wall garden” , providing consumers a plethora of choices in content. It quickly leveraged its early
- 5. adoption to move to Apps, and through its Apps store offered compelling reasons to its users to pay for its services. This was only possible because of the tight control that Apple had over its iOS source code and which it guarded zealously. ANDROID on the other hand offered the flexibility that the iOS lacked, how ever, due to its “open” architecture, it could not be converted to an iTune rival. Reason was that at the same time , everybody “owned “ the ANDROID, and yet they did not. Before a cohesive front could be created to take on the Apple App market, it was too late and Apple had covered a lot of ground. Nevertheless, ANDROID has managed to catch up and is hounding the heels of its rival- this has happened primarily due to the tremendous traction that the ANDROID platform generated over the last 2 years and the positive network effects. Where it lacks, is in the successful creation of an eco-system like the iTune store. The Apple iTune world supports its smart phone, the iPhone, its media player, the iPod touch, its tablet, the iPad and its MAC range of laptops and PCs. All these devices are able to “talk” to each other using the iOS platform and seamlessly transfer media , mails and Apps from one device to the other. This is a superb example of a system, growing on its own, through its complementary strengths. This is missing from the ANDROID platform. While the iOS is known for its “service” offer- the iPhone Siri can guide you to your destination as your drive or deliver your newspaper to you via its newspaper App. The ANDROID App list is a mash up of features and concepts that provide practicality and utility to their users. Individually they are great products, but don’t come together under one seamless environment or “eco-system” Prognosis- ANDROID- Due to inability to create a comprehensive, cohesive complementary eco-system, it scores a low 2. iOS- Because of its strengths in leveraging its complements successfully, it scores a 4. ASSET 7- BRAND NAME AND REPUTATION According to the Millward Brown Top 100 brand report for 2012, Apple takes the crown with an estimated valuation of 182 Billion $, with Google in 3rd place at an estimated 107 Billion $. Even if we sum up the brand values of other key players in the ANDROID eco-system, like Samsung (14 Billion $) and LG (5 Billion $), ANDROID does not come close to iOS. The difference is every so slight. This difference can be bridged if the key stakeholders in the ANDROID eco – system can come together in a unified front (highly unlikely with HTC, LG and Samsung) to create rival to the iTune (more likely with Google launching its first Android jelly bean Motorola device after acquiring its assets). Google with its youtube service, its Google play service and its brand strengths has the capability to give iOS a run for its money. Right now Apple has a slight edge over its rival platform. Prognosis- ANDROID- Scores 3 , for gaining tremendous traction , especially after 2009, and having the inherent potential to rival the iTune in the near future. iOS- Scores 4 , for its continued domination of this space through clever management of its eco-system.
- 6. The SCORE EVALUATION All the assets have been given equal weight in order to avoid any bias. The weight will be multiplied to the scores given and the total calculated ANDROID iOS CONTROL OVER INSTALLED 3 3 USER BASE INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY 4 3 RIGHTS ABILITY TO INNOVATE 4 3 FIRST-MOVER ADVANTAGE 3 3 MANUFACTURING 4 3 CAPABILITIES STRENGTH IN COMPLEMENTS 2 4 BRAND NAME AND 3 4 REPUTATION The sum of the 2 columns reveals a tie- each is scored at 23 apiece! THE FINAL VERDICT Google will power its way into the TOP of the mobile devices market in the next 2 years. It first tested the waters by offering ANDROID as a “democratic” option against the “restrictive” iOS to the key stakeholders who had everything to lose by not heeling to Apple. It has used the last 4 years to watch the battle unfold , from the side lines and take notes on the hits and misses of each side. It has very quietly acquired Motorola and just as quietly launched its first Android device in the market last week. I am not surprised that it has launched its Android tablet, NEXUS, at an aggressive price point of 199 $ to kill the Kindle in one master stroke, as also flank the iPad.All it now needs to do is connect the dots- create an eco-system using its tested YouTube platform, its Google play, gmail, GTalk,flicker and compelling content and Apps on one end, and its Google glasses, its Google phones, its Google tablets, Google Phablets on the other end. ANDROID competitive advantage is that despite its apparent lag, behind the iOS, its global penetration is higher and more evenly (widely) spread, than that of its rival, and it’s this critical factor which will , eventually tilt the balance in ANDROID’s favor.