![Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
• Scientific and intergovernmental body under the UN
• Dedicated to the task of providing the world with an objective,
scientific view of climate change and its political and economic
impacts
• Established in 1988 by two United Nations organizations, the
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United
Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and later endorsed
by the United Nations General Assembly through Resolution
• The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC is to "stabilize
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level
that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic [i.e., human-
induced] interference with the climate system“
•The 2007 Nobel Peace Prize was shared, in equal parts,
between the IPCC and Al Gore](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/bioenergypaper-170821113636/85/GLOBAL-WARMING-CAUSES-FLOOD-DROUGHT-18-320.jpg)
GLOBAL WARMING CAUSES FLOOD & DROUGHT
- 2. Global temperature trend Note that these are surface temperatures and mostly overland. The temperature in upper levels may be different, even reversed.
- 3. What cause the temperature of the atmosphere to go up? ➜ Natural variation – by internal chaotic dynamics of the earth-atmosphere system ➜ Solar activity – either direct increase of solar energy output or indirect “trigger” mechanisms due to solar activity (though nobody knows how) ➜ Greenhouse effect – increasing “greenhouse” gases such as CO2, CH4, NO, CFC,…etc. (actually H2O is very efficient, too, but at present it is assumed to be in steady state). The last one is presently thought to be the most likely cause of the global warming
- 5. Greenhouse effect Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 240 Watt per m3 343 Watt per m3 103Watt per m3
- 6. Co2 Concentration in 2007 The 2007 rise in global carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations is tied with 2005 as the third highest since atmospheric measurements began in 1958. The red line shows the trend together with seasonal variations. The black line indicates the trend that emerges when the seasonal cycle has been removed.
- 7. Source: Dr L Gohar and Prof K Shine, Dept. of Meteorology, University of Reading Rising levels of greenhouse gases Source: Stern Review
- 8. How fast will the CO2 concentration increase?
- 9. If temperature can change, so do other meteorological and environmental variables. The change in temperature may cause a change in precipitation. Vegetation may also change in response to temperature and precipitation changes. And there will be changes in the animal and human world in response to these environmental changes.
- 10. Ice shelves of the South Pole have partly separated and are collapsing. (NASA) Receding high mountain glaciers Melting ice and rising sea level
- 11. Of course the physical environmental change will lead to changes in the biosphere – including our society.
- 12. Not everybody is convinced of the greenhouse gases - global warming theory At this point, it appears that the warming itself is real – the surface temperature indeed becomes higher in the last few decades. The question is – Is the warming caused by the greenhouse gases (especially CO2)? Some groups, especially the IPCC members argue strongly for it. But there are other groups that are not convinced. The summary to the right is from Robinson et al. (1998). Summary World leaders gathered in Kyoto, Japan, in December 1997 to consider a world treaty restricting emissions of ''greenhouse gases,'' chiefly carbon dioxide (CO2), that are thought to cause ''global warming'' severe increases in Earth's atmospheric and surface temperatures, with disastrous environmental consequences. Predictions of global warming are based on computer climate modeling, a branch of science still in its infancy. The empirical evidence actual measurements of Earth's temperature shows no man-made warming trend. Indeed, over the past two decades, when CO2 levels have been at their highest, global average temperatures have actually cooled slightly. You can get this from the following website http://www.oism.org/pproject/review.pdf You can get IPCC reports at http://www.ipcc.ch/
- 16. Climate Change Impact in India Rajasthan- Drought Rann of Kutch – sea level rise Mumbai-Salt water intrusion Kerala –Productivity of Forest Tamil Nadu-Coral bleaching Ganges – Sedimentation problem Sunderbans-Sea level raise Northwest India-reduction In rice yield
- 17. Source: New Indian Express
- 18. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) • Scientific and intergovernmental body under the UN • Dedicated to the task of providing the world with an objective, scientific view of climate change and its political and economic impacts • Established in 1988 by two United Nations organizations, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and later endorsed by the United Nations General Assembly through Resolution • The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC is to "stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic [i.e., human- induced] interference with the climate system“ •The 2007 Nobel Peace Prize was shared, in equal parts, between the IPCC and Al Gore
- 19. •One of the main IPCC activities is the preparation of comprehensive Assessment Reports about the state of scientific, technical and socio- economic knowledge on climate change, its causes, potential impacts and response strategies. The IPCC also produces Special Reports, which are an assessment on a specific issue and Methodology Reports, which provide practical guidelines for the preparation of greenhouse gas inventories •The IPCC does not carry out its own original research, nor does it do the work of monitoring climate or related phenomena itself. •Thousands of scientists and other experts contribute (on a voluntary basis, without payment from the IPCC) to writing and reviewing reports, which are then reviewed by governments of more than 120 countries. •The IPCC provides an internationally accepted authority on climate change •Since its inception in 1988 the IPCC has prepared five multivolume assessment reports. The Fifth Assessment Report was released between September 2013 and November 2014.
- 20. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Synthesis Report 2nd November 2014 Copenhagen
- 21. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Key Messages ➜ Human influence on the climate system is clear ➜ The more we disrupt our climate, the more we risk severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts ➜ We have the means to limit climate change and build a more prosperous, sustainable future AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM, AR5 WGIII SPM
- 22. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Humans are changing the climate Year Globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperatures It is extremely likely that we are the dominant cause of warming since the mid-20th century AR5 WGI SPM
- 23. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Temperatures continue to rise Year Globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperatures Each of the past 3 decades has been successively warmer than the preceding decades since 1850 AR5 WGI SPM
- 24. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Oceans absorb most of the heat ➜ More than 90% of the energy accumulating in the climate system between 1971 and 2010 has accumulated in the ocean ➜ Land temperatures remain at historic highs while ocean temperatures continue to climb AR5 SYR
- 25. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger than in the previous three decades AR5 WGIII SPM
- 26. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Sources of emissions Energy production remains the primary driver of GHG emissions 35% 24% 21% 14% 6.4% 2010 GHG emissions Energy Sector Agriculture, forests and other land uses Industry Transport Building Sector AR5 WGIII SPM
- 27. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report AR5 SYR SPM
- 28. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report AR5 SYR SPM
- 29. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
- 30. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
- 31. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
- 32. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
- 33. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
- 34. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Projected climate changes Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in the climate system Global glacier volume will further decrease Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin as global mean surface temperature rises Oceans will continue to warm during the 21st century AR5 WGI SPM
- 35. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Potential Impacts of Climate Change Food and water shortages Increased poverty Increased displacement of people Coastal flooding AR5 WGII SPM
- 36. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report The window for action is rapidly closing 65% of our carbon budget compatible with a 2°C goal already used Amount Used 1870-2011: 515 GtC Amount Remaining: 275 GtC Total Carbon Budget: 790 GtC AR5 WGI SPM
- 37. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Climate Change Poses Risk for Food Production AR5 SYR SPM
- 38. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Stabilization of atmospheric concentrations requires moving away from the baseline – regardless of the mitigation goal. Based on Figure 6.7 AR5 WGIII SPM
- 39. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Stabilization of atmospheric concentrations requires moving away from the baseline – regardless of the mitigation goal. ~3°C Based on Figure 6.7 AR5 WGIII SPM
- 40. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Figure SPM.10, A reader’s guide From climate change risks to GHG emissionse
- 41. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Limiting Temperature Increase to 2˚C Measures exist to achieve the substantial emissions reductions required to limit likely warming to 2°C A combination of adaptation and substantial, sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can limit climate change risks Implementing reductions in greenhouse gas emissions poses substantial technological, economic, social, and institutional challenges But delaying mitigation will substantially increase the challenges associated with limiting warming to 2°C AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM,AR5 WGIII SPM
- 42. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Mitigation Measures More efficient use of energy Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy • Many of these technologies exist today Improved carbon sinks • Reduced deforestation and improved forest management and planting of new forests • Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage Lifestyle and behavioural changes AR5 WGIII SPM
- 43. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Ambitious Mitigation Is Affordable ➜ Economic growth reduced by ~ 0.06% ➜ This translates into delayed and not forgone growth ➜ Estimated cost does not account for the benefits of reduced climate change ➜ Unmitigated climate change would create increasing risks to economic growth AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM
- 44. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report The Choices We Make Will Create Different Outcomes With substantial mitigation Without additional mitigation Change in average surface temperature (1986–2005 to 2081–2100) AR5 WGI SPM
- 45. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) IPCC is currently in its Sixth Assessment cycle. During this cycle, the Panel will produce three Special Reports, a Methodology Report on national greenhouse gas inventories and the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) The meeting to draft the outline of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) took place in Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) from 1 to 5 May 2017. The draft outlines will be considered by the Panel when it meets in September 2017 The three Working Group contributions to AR6 will be finalized in 2021 and the AR6 Synthesis Report in the first half of 2022 in time for the first UNFCCC global stock take under the Paris Agreement in 2023.
- 46. Per-capita Carbon –dioxide emission (Metric Tons) Country in metric tons USA 20.01 Europe 9.40 Japan 9.87 China 3.60 Russia 11.71 India 1.02 World average 4.25
- 47. Signed UNFCCC on 10th June 1992 India ratified the Kyoto protocol India has a National Action Plan on Climate Change ➜ National Solar Mission ➜ National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency ➜ National Mission on Sustainable Habitat ➜ National Water Mission ➜ National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem ➜ National Mission for a “ Green India” ➜ National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture ➜ National Mission on Strategic Mission on Climate Change India’s Initiatives
- 48. India’s Initiatives India has a well developed policy, legislative regulatory & programmatic regime for promotion of Energy efficiency, renewable energy, nuclear power, fuel switching, energy pricing reform addressing GHG emission
- 49. THANK YOU