A foolproof Way to Estimate a Software Project

A foolproof Way to Estimate a Software Project

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  A fool proofway to Estimate aSoftware Project Maurice de Beijer @mauricedb
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   Maurice deBeijer  The Problem Solver  Microsoft MVP  Freelance developer/instructor  Helping startups  Currently at https://someday.com/  Twitter: @mauricedb  Web: https://www.TheProblemSolver.dev  E-mail: [email protected] 2 © ABL - The Problem Solver
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  Topics  No Estimates? Program evaluation and review technique  Three-point estimation  OpenAI and ChatGPT  Team size
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  No Estimates?
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  Can we learnfrom history?
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  Submarines & Planning USVirginia-class submarine
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  Apollo & Planning Photo byNASA on Unsplash
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  Apollo & Planning Photo byNASA on Unsplash
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  Program evaluation and reviewtechnique
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  Program evaluation and review technique PERT isa method of analyzing the tasks involved in completing a given project, especially the time needed to complete each task, and to identify the minimum time needed to complete the total project. It incorporates uncertainty by making it possible to schedule a project while not knowing precisely the details and durations of all the activities. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Program_evaluation_and_review_technique
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  Three-point estimation
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  Three-point estimation The three-point estimationtechnique is used in management and information systems applications for the construction of an approximate probability distribution representing the outcome of future events, based on very limited information. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-point_estimation
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  Assumption It will probablytake 3 days plus or minus 2 to do a task. The average is 3 days!
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  Reality It will probablytake 3 days to do a task. If everything goes well just 1 day. But it could take up to 9 days if we are unlucky. The average is 3,66 days!
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  Three-point estimation
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  Three-point Estimation Activity Predecessor Time estimates Expected time Opt.(o) Normal (m) Pess. (p) A — 2 4 6 4.00 B — 3 5 9 5.33 C A 4 5 7 5.17 D A 4 6 10 6.33 E B, C 4 5 7 5.17 F D 3 4 8 4.50 G E 3 5 8 5.17
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  Resulting Gantt chart
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  What Activities? Photo by DollarGill on Unsplash
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  The Magical Number Seven,Plus or MinusTwo: SomeLimitsonOurCapacityfor ProcessingInformation Miller's law
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  What Activities? Photo by petrsidorov on Unsplash
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  Can we addfrom the future?
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  The future Photo byAmeer Basheer on Unsplash
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  AI is verygood at cancer detection Photo by National Cancer Institute on Unsplash
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  OpenAI ChatGPT Photo by JonathanKemper on Unsplash
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  Generate a listof tasks
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  Generate tasks
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  ChatGTP Prompts
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  ChatGTP Prompts
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  Generate estimates using PERT
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  Generate estimates
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  Excel table
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  Creating aGantt chart
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  Creating a Gantt chart
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  Creating a Gantt chart
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  Team size
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  Team size “Nine womencan't make a baby in one month” “Adding manpower to a software project that is behind schedule delays it even longer” -- Brooks's laws
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  Team size  Startwith a small and experienced team  Add some less experienced developers after a while  Is the project is struggling at the end?  Don’t add more developers!  Instead remove less capable developers!  ☞ “Less capable” does not mean “Less experienced” ☜
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  Conclusion  No Estimatesusually doesn’t work  PERT works well even with a lot of uncertain tasks  ChatGPT will help you find and estimate tasks  Keep the team size as small as possible Specially when struggling with the final delivery
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  Maurice de Beijer @mauricedb maurice.de.beijer @gmail.com ©ABL - The Problem Solver 40