Australia's Environmental Predictive Capability
Download as PPTX, PDF0 likes121 views
The document outlines the National Environmental Prediction System (NEPS) consultations held in February 2020, aiming to federate existing research capabilities in Australia for improved environmental prediction and risk management. It discusses the goals, objectives, and potential benefits of establishing NEPS, as well as the necessary stakeholder involvement and resources required for its success. Key discussion points include identifying priority aspects for NEPS, additional resources needed, and contributions from participants to enhance environmental modeling and data integration.
Australia's Environmental Predictive Capability
- 1. National Environmental Prediction System (NEPS) Community consultations 3 -13 February 2020 Dr Michelle Barker (Facilitator) Federating world-leading research, data and technical capabilities to create Australia’s
- 2. Acknowledgement of country We wish to acknowledge the traditional custodians of the land we are meeting on, the Gadigal people of the Eora Nation We wish to acknowledge and respect their continuing culture and the contribution they make to the life of this city and this region. We pay our respects to their Elders past, present and emerging.
- 3. Today’s agenda Link to slides: tinyurl.com/rfp82p8 Google docs: tinyurl.com/t2fexwz Twitter hashtags: #NEPS #NCRIS @NCRISImpact
- 4. Australia invests in national research infrastructure • NCRIS is an Australian Government funding initiative • NCRIS is a national network of world-class research infrastructure projects • NEPS would be a new national capability alongside NCRIS projects
- 5. Developing a plan for a National Environmental Prediction System
- 6. • Obtain broad agreement from key stakeholders regarding the scope of a NEPS Expert Panel: - Professor Rob Vertessy (Chair) - Dr Andrea Hinwood - Dr Adam Lewis - Dr Phil McFadden AO - Mr Warwick McDonald - Dr Steve Morton Supported by Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN) NEPS Scoping Study key objectives: • Develop a detailed establishment plan including identification of stakeholder co‐investments and actions necessary to support the development
- 8. Rationale Vision o Networked infrastructure o Allowing integration of environmental observations with predictive modelling o To provide evidence-based advice o To boost our economy through improved environmental risk management Drivers o Increasingly urgent requirements from decision-makers for predictive advice on environmental risks o Maturity of existing infrastructure for environmental assessment o Rapid technical advances in sensors and in data integration, and in research capacity for predictive synthesis
- 9. Federating existing research infrastructure capabilities Citizens Research Industry Government Environmental information community v International (RDA, GBIF) v Existing information infrastructure for climate (and other) prediction Academies & research centres NCRIS RI (inc Clouds) GA BoM DoEE ABS DAWR DIIS NEPS
- 10. Benefits Users: simplified access to rich cross-domain data on the Australian environment, with greater transparency, reproducibility and reuse. Service providers: greater and more sophisticated use of their digital assets and from improved understanding of priorities for new data capture and enrichment.
- 11. Poll: Which of the following describe you? • Provider of environmental observational data • Provider of environmental models and predictions • Provider of environmental decisions • Provider of environmental research infrastructure • User of environmental observational data • User of environmental models and predictions • User of environmental decisions • User of environmental research infrastructure
- 12. What does NEPS look like? • Federated research infrastructure • Not a research program or operational policy tool • Goal is to enable good predictive models for any scenario • Supporting collaborative science • Value grows with more researchers, more data, and more models
- 13. Elements of an Environmental Prediction System
- 14. Federated Entity ~ Synthesis Activity Collaboration across three increasing levels: • Shared conceptual framework and standards • Shared access to standardised data • Shared and interlocking system models ASRIS/ CSIRO
- 15. Synthesis centres characteristics include: • Incubator for transformational science • Highly interactive and connected culture • Problem to solutions orientation • Pathway for uptake • Appetite for risk and adaptation • Shared resources and services Source: Rodrigo A, Alberts S, Cranston K, Kingsolver J, Lapp H, et al. (2013) Science Incubators: Synthesis Centers and Their Role in the Research Ecosystem. PLoS Biol 11(1): e1001468. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1001468
- 17. • Australian Aerobiology Working Group: medical professionals, botanists, climate change modellers etc • Collate and analyse regional pollen count data • Provides data to medical community and allergy suffers
- 18. Flagship projects will help to: • Form initial user community • Seed NEPS with valuable data and models • Identify/resolve common challenges • Deliver early benefits and value
- 19. Flagships – examples only Australian Fire Risk Modelling Urban Strategic Planning Environmental Impact Assessments
- 20. SAFE Urban Strategic Planning NEPS Investment Conceptual Framework Federated Data Interoperable Models Provenance & Traceability NEPS Flagship Projects (Examples Only) Regulatory Processes Research Processes Australian Fire Risk Modeling
- 21. A future without NEPS? • Fragmented, duplicated, ad hoc, inefficient efforts – opportunity and financial costs • Limited opportunities to integrate insights and models across domains • National planning for environmental change curtailed • Major decisions around key issues made without coordinated scientific input
- 23. Today’s discussion topics (30 mins each) A. What are the key aspects that need to be included in NEPS and which of these are the priorities? B. What additional resources or approaches are needed to enable NEPS? C. What could you or your organisation contribute in the context of NEPS?
- 24. What you can do Questions and comments? Make a comment or submission NEPS Submissions close 5pm AEDT Monday, 2 March 2020 Email [email protected] NEPS online: https://science.uq.edu.au/neps
- 26. Today’s agenda Link to slides: tinyurl.com/rfp82p8 Google docs: tinyurl.com/t2fexwz Twitter hashtags: #NEPS #NCRIS @NCRISImpact
- 27. Topic A. What are the key aspects that need to be included in NEPS and which of these are the priorities?
- 28. Poll question: Please rank these potential aspects of NEPS in priority order 1. Establish a Synthesis Centre 2. Coordinate development of a comprehensive set of Australian Essential Environmental Variables 3. Develop/coordinate development of cross-domain spatiotemporal data integration services 4. Coordinate development/interoperability of catalogue services for discovery and use of vocabularies, services, datasets, etc 5. Establish /coordinate ecosystem of modelling environments/expertise to deliver world-class cross-domain environmental models 6. Focus on small number of high-value achievable exemplars for cross-domain integration, modelling, prediction (e.g. specific systems such as the Murray-Darling, national-scale microclimate modelling, biodiversity value of land units, heat islands, ...) 7. Represent Aust interests in international networks/standards bodies
- 29. Poll question: Which of the following major classes of information access are most important? 1. Cross-domain access to all primary observations and measurements for any location (point, grid cell or shape) within any time period. 2. Access to best-available modelled representations of key environmental variables at different scales in space and time. 3. Hypercube functionality to retrieve modelled representations of a set of key environmental variables across multiple space-time units at different scales – including grid cells, cadastral units, and other arbitrary divisions 4. Ability to schedule models and analyses using arbitrary combinations of spatiotemporal and non-spatiotemporal assets 5. Provenance, source data, contributing institutions and users for any data asset or data product
- 30. What are some research and industry R&D outcomes that will be realised as a result of this new capability, that could not be achieved without these aspects? Add comments to google doc: tinyurl.com/t2fexwz Sectors include: • Health • Environment • Mining and resources • Tourism
- 31. Today’s agenda Link to slides: tinyurl.com/rfp82p8 Google docs: tinyurl.com/t2fexwz Twitter hashtags: #NEPS #NCRIS @NCRISImpact
- 32. Topic B. What additional resources or approaches are needed to enable NEPS? What is needed in the NEPS investment plan, as potential future additions to other organisations to enable the the NEPS vision? • Resources to increase openness/access to existing/future data • Funding to expand or maintain key long-term monitoring efforts • Resources to participate in international networks, etc. • Resources and staffing to coordinate efforts within NEPs to model systems and align with other infrastructures • Resources to build models Which are needed in the short/medium/long-term?
- 33. Some challenges Scientific • Near term forecasts can ignore or even create long-term problems • Maintain long term perspective, use long term data, even when we are focused on near- term forecasts • Use model-data cycle to learn the actual scaling structures of the systems Social • Failed forecasts breed scepticism about modelling and predictions • People are bad at thinking probabilistically • Adopt language of the military? E.g., threat levels, scenarios, consequences of actions • Incorporate users in integrated learning communities when developing forecasts. “When you incorporate users into the decision, they don’t blame you when surprises happen.”
- 34. Poll question: What are major barriers to establish/maintain a NEPS capability? • cultural divide (eg between govt/industry/research or across research disciplines) • competency (in modelling, data management etc) • commitment (from govt to create and sustain) • communications (with key stakeholders) • the concept (is this supported) Note: all five are needed to maintain successful collaboration
- 35. What new data sources, analytic methods or tools that are potential game changers for environmental management could arrive in the next five years? Add comments to google doc: tinyurl.com/t2fexwz
- 36. Topic C. What could you or your organisation contribute in the context of NEPS? Examples • Established data standards • Existing datasets (including consideration of their FAIRness, openness, standards- compliance, etc.) • Environmental models (algorithms or services) • Representation of Australian research needs in international standards bodies • Interfaces for accessing international environmental datasets for use in Australia • Virtual laboratories • Storage/compute facilities • Communications channels • Use cases for environmental prediction
- 37. If you could access funding to participate in NEPS, what would you invest in? Would you rank this investment as: - Urgent - Nice to have - Wish list
- 38. What are some research and industry R&D outcomes that will be realised as a result of this new capability, that could not be achieved without these aspects? Add comments to google doc: tinyurl.com/t2fexwz Sectors include: • Health • Environment • Mining and resources • Tourism
- 39. Poll question: What will be some other outcomes if Australia does not develop a NEPS capability?
- 40. Summation •Topic A: What are the key aspects that need to be included in NEPS and which of these are the priorities? •Topic B: What additional resources or approaches are needed to enable NEPS? •Topic C: What could you or your organisation contribute in the context of NEPS?
- 41. What you can do Make a comment or submission NEPS Submissions close 5pm AEDT Monday, 2 March 2020 Email [email protected] NEPS online: https://science.uq.edu.au/neps
- 42. SAFE – Shared Analytic Framework for the Environment
- 43. Parallel and separate processes ASCERTAIN factors ACQUIRE information ASSESS and decide ASSURE monitoring ADAPT Management ADJUST Values REVIEW Drivers REFINE Models SPRAT TERN BOM SAFE AURIN Regulatory Processes Research Processes
- 44. Digital Twin of Australian Environment Science-Policy Interface NEPS Investment Unifying effort for environmental prediction ASCERTAIN factors ACQUIRE information ASSESS and decide ASSURE monitoring ADAPT Management ADJUST Values REVIEW Drivers REFINE Models Regulatory Processes Research Processes Conceptual Framework Federated Data Interoperable Models Provenance & Traceability
- 45. SAFE Urban Strategic Planning NEPS Investment Conceptual Framework Federated Data Interoperable Models Provenance & Traceability NEPS Flagship Projects (Examples Only) Regulatory Processes Research Processes Australian Fire Risk Modeling
Editor's Notes
- #3: Perth – Whadjuk Adelaide – Kaurna Melbourne - Boon Wurrung and Woiwurrung (Wurundjeri) peoples of the Kulin Nation Sydney – Gadigal people of the Eora Nation Brisbane – Turrbal, Jagera and Yugara peoples Generic: “I/We wish to acknowledge the traditional custodians of the land we are meeting on. I/We wish to acknowledge and respect their continuing culture and the contribution they make to the life of this city and this region.”
- #4: Introduce staff, facilities, fire escapes, use of zoom.
- #6: The Australian Government Department of Education has commissioned the NEPS Scoping Study to provide technical assessments and requirements analysis for a NEPS, and to define implementation costs and timeframes to establish and manage a NEPS as national research infrastructure to meet researcher and operational user needs. The NEPS Scoping Study involves undertaking targeted consultations with key experts and stakeholders, including relevant areas of the existing National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy (NCRIS) network.
- #7: Welcome any Expert Panel members who are online. Highlight objective of broad agreement, explain consultations already undertaken, timelines.
- #10: NEPS will make significant use of existing capabilities and as far as possible reinforce existing NRIs to deliver components that are currently absent or insufficient. Australia has strong foundations, comprised of institutions, expert teams, data sets and supporting analytic tools. Yet, end-users and providers of environmental information both see the need to build on those foundations so that better environmental management decisions can be made. The System Design for NEPS needs to address the mechanisms required to support the necessary networking or federation across existing national research infrastructures (NRIs) and other significant national and State and Territory environmental data assets and to deliver the complementary capability required to facilitate integrated access and modelling based on these infrastructures and assets. International collaborations are also important.
- #14: Technical – hardware and software tools – developing enable tools are part of bringing a joined up environmental information infrastructure to life and accessible by both machines and people. Information – the information highway enablers such data exchange standards and dictionaries – definitions and meaning Social – this is where the major choke point in information supply chains occurs: institutional arrangement, data governance, licencing agreement conditions etc
- #15: System of systems Interoperable models Data hypercube Build on not duplicate RI Use existing resources & models Integrate subdomains Bring people together to solve complex problems a high-level perspective on the embedding of Subdomain Infrastructure Communities within NEPS and highlights the areas for which additional NEPS investments will be necessary. The green cells in each row are indicative of the current level of activity or investment by these lead infrastructures in different stages of the research data lifecycle, either directly as part of the operational activity of the infrastructure community or via contributions from the community members. The yellow cells and arrows represent the aspects for which additional cross-domain coordination and investments will be required to deliver NEPS.
- #18: https://www.pollenforecast.com.au/
- #21: NCRIS: Support high-quality research Drives greater innovation in the Australian research sector and the economy more broadly Projects support strategically important research Allows Australian researchers and their international partners to address key national and global challenges
- #22: The impact of failing to invest directly in NEPS will be that progress towards such a capability will, fragmented and ad hoc. As a result, the nation’s ability to plan for environmental change will be severely curtailed. Lack of coordination in addressing interoperability and prediction challenges will result in duplication of effort, with each science domain having to bear the cost of addressing the same set of social, institutional and technical challenges in isolation. Understanding possible environmental changes under human development and climate change is vital at this point for the nation’s economy. Major decisions around infrastructure investment, energy and human health will need to be made, but it will be difficult for the scientific community to contribute in a coordinated manner to assist with these challenges. Understanding possible environmental changes under human development and climate change is vital at this point for the nation’s economy.
- #33: Discussion on these points.
- #44: NCRIS: Support high-quality research Drives greater innovation in the Australian research sector and the economy more broadly Projects support strategically important research Allows Australian researchers and their international partners to address key national and global challenges
- #45: NCRIS: Support high-quality research Drives greater innovation in the Australian research sector and the economy more broadly Projects support strategically important research Allows Australian researchers and their international partners to address key national and global challenges
- #46: NCRIS: Support high-quality research Drives greater innovation in the Australian research sector and the economy more broadly Projects support strategically important research Allows Australian researchers and their international partners to address key national and global challenges