Generating and testing the ideas that will smell just right! An innovative approach to  concept creation and screening Esomar Copenhagen June 17 2008   Jaroslav Cír  Global Consumer and Market Insight Director Rexona, Unilever Evert Bos   Managing Director NL
WILDFIRE - a new approach  to innovation
To generate a large number of ‘pre-ideas’ with strong potential, which are to be regularly and continuously fed into the ‘Innovation Funnel’ of the European Deo IC. A chance to interact more with others, to share the learning and create a new philosophy for the innovation process using ONE team rather than many. To disseminate the innovation culture within the category and within Unilever. To create and train an energetic and inquisitive team of people in the Deo Category (Marketing, CMI/CTI and R&D). Project Wildfire has been initiated with the following objectives:
To create an ongoing, coordinated  ‘rolling-programme’  and not a series of separate events  and importantly… To be quick– ‘Year One’ from project inception to first consumer -validated bank of ideas in less than 6 months  To be flexible – capable of accommodating a range of start points, from individual brand platforms, to more general market and societal trends
Why?
Traditional method- random concepts mainly confined to the bottom draw With Project Wildfire Concepts & testing Ideas Route to market Better informed concepts  & testing Insight & Pre Ideas Route to market
How?
PHASE   1 PHASE   2 PHASE   3 Inspiration Sessions Small teams out & about in different, inspiring environments, gathering a large number of pre-ideas, guided by an experienced facilitator .  Harvesting + Acceleration Focused working sessions to  accelerate the team’s thinking, identifying & strengthening emerging pre-ideas.   •  Training •  Facilitation •  Ideation •  Design learnings •  Facilitation •  Ideation •  Prototyping •  Design  Select + Evaluate DEO Gallery to build & vote Final selection of concepts  to progress  BrainJuicer Online consumer Brainstorm Predictive Market Selection UNILEVER DEO TEAM Mission possible WOW & YB
Generating ideas online  using Creative consumers Creative 6’ers™
Let the Creative’s   Create! Brainstorms are team bonding exercises and great at creating commitment  and  BUT  harmony hinders revolutionary ideas Every person & idea has equal worth   BUT  only 6% of folk are highly creative Suspending judgement helps creativity BUT  creatives are the harshest critics A group is good at creating acceptable & evolutionary ideas   Individualists create Fresh ideas (‘New & Different’, ‘Weird & Wonderful’) Colleagues are boxed in by corporate paradigms that act as self limiting beliefs Creatives are truly open minded, so… Avoid  Brainstorming to generate fresh ideas
A $trillion marketing services industry  Trying to satisfy the thirst for creativity
We know how to measure intelligence...  Can creativity be measured?
Creating measures of creativity An experiment with a national representative  sample of 5,000 Implicit creativity measures (Personality tests) Measuring  Creativity Explicit creativity measures (Creativity tests) Putting well-known academic and psychological tools to the test Mednick’s  Remote Association  Test Insight Test -  cognitive plane  shifting Horowitz Test -  visual abstraction  to test flexibility Torrance Test of Creativity Thinking -  elaboration  and  divergent  thinking to test for fluency, flexibility, originality
W illoughby  I ndividualist –  T eam player ( WIT ) test Adaptors/Team Players Prefer to take ideas and improve them. Fairly cautious, practical and standard approaches. Prefer incremental innovation, structure and consensus. Prefer to work in groups. Their motto is to  do things better.   Innovators/Individualist Prefer to find new ideas and ‘big bang’. Can be risky, challenging and abrasive. Prefer solving problems with less structure and consensus. Prefer to solve problems alone. Their motto is  do things differently.
Idea generation exercise
BrainJuicer Creativity Test
 
Creativity is like any other aptitude
The more creative the person,  the more ideas they had & the more creative they were Elephant ideas Make ears bigger Give it a squeak Make the eyes move Ears feels different  Make trunk longer Squirt water from trunk (given as e.g.) Sing Nellie the elephant Make it walk  Elephant ideas +  humanising ideas Pull the trunk to open its mouth Trumpet when it detects movement Have babies inside  • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Allow it to speak Give it spectacles Give it clothes  Talk back to you Record a message Have the child’s name on it Elephant ideas + humanising ideas + more abstract ideas A finger puppet Water proof 4 bath Make it laugh Make it dance Make it fart & burp Help spell & count Roar when smacked • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Elephant Hoover Radio, tusks for volume & tuning A Pyjama case Tusks 4 teething Add wheels & ride it Vibrates to soothe Microwaveable as a  hot water bottle The Creativity Test with 5,000 showed a bell curve distribution of creativity just like any other talent Regular 60 Watt 49% Night Light 31% The Lights Are Off 2% Bright Spark 17% Incandescent! 1% 6% =  validated Creative Sixers
How the Creative   works How best to Use Creative Sixers: Increase creative output by challenging them  Increase creative output by giving them 4 days to think about it Increase creative output by asking for at least 8 ideas Use Creatives’ New Think as input to create New & Sound Concepts **the best ideas tend  NOT  to be the 1st ideas 6% =  validated Creative Sixers
How the Creative   works “ Using BrainJuicers we generated & tested dozens of ideas to find a winner. What would normally take us months we finished in 2 weeks.  More Juice please! ” Jaroslav Cir – Global Consumer & Market Insight Manager Rexona  Output a ‘Deck of Ideas’   of the best 52 ideas + 2 Jokers
  A radio with one tusk for volume & the other  for tuning
  Bedtime comforter for babies with teething tusks
Deo Concepts inspired  by Creative 6’ers™  Elaborated upon in the workshop
Spritz  & Go No aluminium compounds  combating sweat & odours effectively Good for your skin (Vitamin E)  Natural ingredients  like lime, green tea, lemon, tea tree oil mixes Angel Pocket sized   No white marks  Smelling fresh and clean all day Natural Protection Plant extract / no chemicals / no scent Nat-U-ral or NATURA   Invisible working in the background Very  natural/neutral  No white marks Natures organic blend   Organic and natural ingredients/shapes   Suggest freshness and purity Colours would be bright Aurora A very  small, thin aerosol can fitting into handbag   Label would be peelable so that no one would know what it was One use deodorant   Special applicator for just one application  So small can be  kept in even the smallest clubbing purse Creative Individualists’ Ideas and Resulting Concepts:   New Female Deodorant Usage Ideas – Creatives (Women)
Deo  Patches   Tackling the cause of body odour, not masking the smell  Selling patches , similar to anti-smoking patches  worn under clothing  to prevent body odour Ice Queen   Keeping you  clean, cool and fresh  all day long Clear  and no white marks Bottle is white and feminine shape with a crown shape lid.  Be Cool   Keeping you fresh and dry Keeping your  skin feeling cool and fresh Long-lasting and moisturizing Packaging minimalist, maybe Japanese Fresh Shield   Small sachets , easily opened, with a clear gel Non sticky leaving no residue  Natural floral and plant fragrances An antiperspirant in a  flat tin   Fits in your pocket or handbag  with lockable top Creative Individualists’ Ideas and Resulting Concepts:  New Female Deodorant Usage Ideas – Creatives (Women)
Inspire Instant drying powder  Three-set phial of fragrances  could mix and match to the fragrance that suits you. No white marks Slowed down hair regrowth Invisible No smell,  leaves no white marks , doesn't flake and stops  underarm sweating Does not clog pores Diaphanous Invisible shield  giving long lasting protection Mix & Match  Like a room fragrancer Variety of smells –  fragrances that can be blended  or Individually applied so can be flexible with your mood   Invisible Shield  Not white but  skin toned  so it didn’t show on dark clothing Cream that absorbed rapidly and would be totally odourless Creative Individualists’ Ideas and Resulting Concepts:  New Female Deodorant Usage Ideas – Creatives (Women)
QuiFresh   All over deodorizing shower gel using extracts of Aloe and citrus.  Automatically deodorizes everywhere  A  two sided bottle  with the liquid in the middle, one side like  usual shower gel  and the other side with a grill which  the gel comes out  of evenly for underarm application Sweet Individual Protecting against odour  Reacting with  your skin’s own oils  to produce a  unique pleasing scent  Creative Individualists’ Ideas and Resulting Concepts:  New Female Deodorant Usage Ideas – Creatives (Women)
Smelly or Pit Stop   Funky and trendy  with all ages. Bringing health benefits Different smells e.g  smelly petal, smelly berry Powder  ball  Don't like roll-ons because they leave you wet & sticky Don't like sprays; not good for the environment How about a roller ball  dry powder roll on ?  No wetness , no spray CFCs, & easy to use.  Creative Individualists’ Ideas and Resulting Concepts:   New Female Deodorant Usage Ideas – Creatives (Women)
Mousse  deodorant  Leaving no marks Long lasting  Leaving silky soft skin.  Creative Individualists’ Ideas and Resulting Concepts:   New Female Deodorant Usage Ideas – Creatives (Women)
Fresh and  Bare   Antiperspirant deodorant  Inhibiting underarm hair growth Leaving skin smooth Bare armpits with none of the hassle   24/7 Protecting  day and night  with one easy application Selection of natural and perfume fragrances  Handbag size  No whitening of skin/clothing on application  Clear  Product with a  clear bottle so that you can see how much product is left   Creative Individualists’ Ideas and Resulting Concepts:   New Female Deodorant Usage Ideas – Creatives (Women)
Full Stop   Increasing effect to match demand  Time release capsules  Unisex offers New Male Deodorant Usage Ideas – Creatives (Men) Impact Keep both feet and shoes smelling fresh with deo inlays! Out with the cheese and in with the pleasant smell!! DryTec   Let the skin breathe! Odour and healthy skin control!  Copy and learn from high performance fabrics Shower and a towel in a can On-the-go solution: spray on cleanser, towel off then spray deo Anti-perspirant body wash & deo 2-in-1   Plain transparent container, to see how much is left Small enough to slip into gym bag The Invisible Deo Odourless, unnoticeable Essence   Easy, no-mess application / non-staining Good for the skin / anti-bacterial / moisturising Effective over a long period Environmentally friendly design, pleasant smelling  Non-disposable cartridge-refillable roll-on  Lavender, Rose or Neroli Miniature key ring size deo Sahara  Anti-perspirant, incredibly effective  Long-lasting fragrance matching more exclusive men's fragrances Night & Day Bottle in two parts: Metallic Blue & Yellow/Orange 2 different scents: light and fresh, deep & masculine
Screening concept ideas: ‘Let the Market Decide’ 15 ideas in a Predictive Market  where 500 select the most Potent
The Wisdom of Crowds  How the Many Can Be Smarter than the Few, James Surowiecki (2004)
Galton’s surprise findings collective guess  =  1197 lbs actual weight  =  1198 lbs
IEM -   The original Predictive Market X 596 Polls (1988 - 2000)    ¾
The   Experiments Monadic Test of  10 concepts & matched targeted samples of 100 A Predictive Market with the same 10 concepts & a diverse ‘crowd’ of 500
How Brainjuicer Predictive Markets work Tested 15 ideas with a convenience sample of 500  answering for how they believe the market would react Share the game with them , “imagine you owned shares in all these ideas..., which one would you sell + diagnostics & why and which one would you double your shares in and why?” Aggregated buy/sell scores  accurately sorts ‘wheat from chaff’, purchase projection indicates the ‘grade of wheat’ & the rich quali-quant diagnostics provide creative direction Works across cultures  with universal net preference scores
Experiment:  Top 2 Box Purchase Intention  Results for 10 HPC Ideas in UK A diverse crowd will be as accurate as a targeted sample  A ‘Predictive Market’ will be as accurate as a monadic test  Answering for the market as accurate as answering for oneself New Product Concepts Monadic Test with matched samples of 100 in the target market Predictive Market with diverse group of 500 people   Significant Differences A 85 85   B 83 76 + C 81 80   D 78 86   E 74 70   UK Norms (top two box) 67 67 67 F 64 28 *** G 64 28 *** H 54 35 * I 49 45 J 43 16 ***
First Exposure to Predictive Markets Breaking Paradigms ! Conventional Approach Focus on consumer reactions / Users Test among target segment Understand consumers’ personal motivations/ reactions New Approach Testing relying on the Wisdom of the Crowds: Large, diverse crowd that scores independently, faithfully aggregated Respondent considers how the market will react, and not personal reactions (projective technique) High incidence on non-category users (65% do not use Plug-ins)
Let the Market select Monadic Test   Less differentiation Over-rewards the mediocre Scores vary by culture More expensive samples Costly to test many ideas 5-6 week turn process Predictive Markets Sorts ‘wheat from the chaff’ Can also grade the ‘wheat’ More comparable cross-culture Cheaper convenience sample VFM way to test many ideas 2-3 week process
Deo ideas in the  Predictive Market’ 15 ideas in a Predictive Market  where 500 select the most Potent
% Doubling and Selling Shares in Each Idea – Male  Sample: 500 Einstein represents ideas inspired by the Creative 6’ers™   Bars represent a breakdown of the % buying and % selling each idea Net preference score sorts wheat from chaff to reveals which concepts have real potential ?   ? ? ? ? ? -10 -5 -5 -4 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 5 19 Net Preference:
% Doubling and Selling Shares in Each Idea – Female  Sample: 503 ?      ? ? ? ? ? Einstein represents ideas inspired by the Creative 6’ers™   Bars represent a breakdown of the % buying and % selling each idea Net preference score sorts wheat from chaff to reveals which concepts have real potential Net Preference:   -17 -7 -5 -4 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 6 14
A shift towards “culture of innovation” AXE R&D  CSI  DOVE AXE CTI
Translating the ideas to mixes and we are introducing them to the markets!  NAME AXE DAY  &  AXE NIGHT FRAGRANCES Day – Have Fun  (Givaudan) With citrus, fruity & woody notes, a fragrance which responds to one definition: A subtle fragrance for playing the mating game in public during the day. Night - Laikipia (Firmenich) With woody, oriental & spicy notes, it has one objective: A mysterious fragrance for one on one mating game in the night. Insight & communication  You need different tactics & weapons for each moment. That’s why now you’ve got Axe  Day  &  Night ,  2 fragrances, one for each moment.

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Esomar Innovation presentation June 2008

  • 1. Generating and testing the ideas that will smell just right! An innovative approach to concept creation and screening Esomar Copenhagen June 17 2008 Jaroslav Cír Global Consumer and Market Insight Director Rexona, Unilever Evert Bos Managing Director NL
  • 2. WILDFIRE - a new approach to innovation
  • 3. To generate a large number of ‘pre-ideas’ with strong potential, which are to be regularly and continuously fed into the ‘Innovation Funnel’ of the European Deo IC. A chance to interact more with others, to share the learning and create a new philosophy for the innovation process using ONE team rather than many. To disseminate the innovation culture within the category and within Unilever. To create and train an energetic and inquisitive team of people in the Deo Category (Marketing, CMI/CTI and R&D). Project Wildfire has been initiated with the following objectives:
  • 4. To create an ongoing, coordinated ‘rolling-programme’ and not a series of separate events and importantly… To be quick– ‘Year One’ from project inception to first consumer -validated bank of ideas in less than 6 months To be flexible – capable of accommodating a range of start points, from individual brand platforms, to more general market and societal trends
  • 6. Traditional method- random concepts mainly confined to the bottom draw With Project Wildfire Concepts & testing Ideas Route to market Better informed concepts & testing Insight & Pre Ideas Route to market
  • 8. PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3 Inspiration Sessions Small teams out & about in different, inspiring environments, gathering a large number of pre-ideas, guided by an experienced facilitator . Harvesting + Acceleration Focused working sessions to accelerate the team’s thinking, identifying & strengthening emerging pre-ideas. • Training • Facilitation • Ideation • Design learnings • Facilitation • Ideation • Prototyping • Design Select + Evaluate DEO Gallery to build & vote Final selection of concepts to progress BrainJuicer Online consumer Brainstorm Predictive Market Selection UNILEVER DEO TEAM Mission possible WOW & YB
  • 9. Generating ideas online using Creative consumers Creative 6’ers™
  • 10. Let the Creative’s Create! Brainstorms are team bonding exercises and great at creating commitment and BUT harmony hinders revolutionary ideas Every person & idea has equal worth BUT only 6% of folk are highly creative Suspending judgement helps creativity BUT creatives are the harshest critics A group is good at creating acceptable & evolutionary ideas Individualists create Fresh ideas (‘New & Different’, ‘Weird & Wonderful’) Colleagues are boxed in by corporate paradigms that act as self limiting beliefs Creatives are truly open minded, so… Avoid Brainstorming to generate fresh ideas
  • 11. A $trillion marketing services industry Trying to satisfy the thirst for creativity
  • 12. We know how to measure intelligence... Can creativity be measured?
  • 13. Creating measures of creativity An experiment with a national representative sample of 5,000 Implicit creativity measures (Personality tests) Measuring Creativity Explicit creativity measures (Creativity tests) Putting well-known academic and psychological tools to the test Mednick’s Remote Association Test Insight Test - cognitive plane shifting Horowitz Test - visual abstraction to test flexibility Torrance Test of Creativity Thinking - elaboration and divergent thinking to test for fluency, flexibility, originality
  • 14. W illoughby I ndividualist – T eam player ( WIT ) test Adaptors/Team Players Prefer to take ideas and improve them. Fairly cautious, practical and standard approaches. Prefer incremental innovation, structure and consensus. Prefer to work in groups. Their motto is to do things better. Innovators/Individualist Prefer to find new ideas and ‘big bang’. Can be risky, challenging and abrasive. Prefer solving problems with less structure and consensus. Prefer to solve problems alone. Their motto is do things differently.
  • 17.  
  • 18. Creativity is like any other aptitude
  • 19. The more creative the person, the more ideas they had & the more creative they were Elephant ideas Make ears bigger Give it a squeak Make the eyes move Ears feels different Make trunk longer Squirt water from trunk (given as e.g.) Sing Nellie the elephant Make it walk Elephant ideas + humanising ideas Pull the trunk to open its mouth Trumpet when it detects movement Have babies inside • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Allow it to speak Give it spectacles Give it clothes Talk back to you Record a message Have the child’s name on it Elephant ideas + humanising ideas + more abstract ideas A finger puppet Water proof 4 bath Make it laugh Make it dance Make it fart & burp Help spell & count Roar when smacked • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Elephant Hoover Radio, tusks for volume & tuning A Pyjama case Tusks 4 teething Add wheels & ride it Vibrates to soothe Microwaveable as a hot water bottle The Creativity Test with 5,000 showed a bell curve distribution of creativity just like any other talent Regular 60 Watt 49% Night Light 31% The Lights Are Off 2% Bright Spark 17% Incandescent! 1% 6% = validated Creative Sixers
  • 20. How the Creative works How best to Use Creative Sixers: Increase creative output by challenging them Increase creative output by giving them 4 days to think about it Increase creative output by asking for at least 8 ideas Use Creatives’ New Think as input to create New & Sound Concepts **the best ideas tend NOT to be the 1st ideas 6% = validated Creative Sixers
  • 21. How the Creative works “ Using BrainJuicers we generated & tested dozens of ideas to find a winner. What would normally take us months we finished in 2 weeks. More Juice please! ” Jaroslav Cir – Global Consumer & Market Insight Manager Rexona Output a ‘Deck of Ideas’ of the best 52 ideas + 2 Jokers
  • 22. A radio with one tusk for volume & the other for tuning
  • 23. Bedtime comforter for babies with teething tusks
  • 24. Deo Concepts inspired by Creative 6’ers™ Elaborated upon in the workshop
  • 25. Spritz & Go No aluminium compounds combating sweat & odours effectively Good for your skin (Vitamin E) Natural ingredients like lime, green tea, lemon, tea tree oil mixes Angel Pocket sized No white marks Smelling fresh and clean all day Natural Protection Plant extract / no chemicals / no scent Nat-U-ral or NATURA Invisible working in the background Very natural/neutral No white marks Natures organic blend Organic and natural ingredients/shapes Suggest freshness and purity Colours would be bright Aurora A very small, thin aerosol can fitting into handbag Label would be peelable so that no one would know what it was One use deodorant Special applicator for just one application So small can be kept in even the smallest clubbing purse Creative Individualists’ Ideas and Resulting Concepts: New Female Deodorant Usage Ideas – Creatives (Women)
  • 26. Deo Patches Tackling the cause of body odour, not masking the smell Selling patches , similar to anti-smoking patches worn under clothing to prevent body odour Ice Queen Keeping you clean, cool and fresh all day long Clear and no white marks Bottle is white and feminine shape with a crown shape lid. Be Cool Keeping you fresh and dry Keeping your skin feeling cool and fresh Long-lasting and moisturizing Packaging minimalist, maybe Japanese Fresh Shield Small sachets , easily opened, with a clear gel Non sticky leaving no residue Natural floral and plant fragrances An antiperspirant in a flat tin Fits in your pocket or handbag with lockable top Creative Individualists’ Ideas and Resulting Concepts: New Female Deodorant Usage Ideas – Creatives (Women)
  • 27. Inspire Instant drying powder Three-set phial of fragrances could mix and match to the fragrance that suits you. No white marks Slowed down hair regrowth Invisible No smell, leaves no white marks , doesn't flake and stops underarm sweating Does not clog pores Diaphanous Invisible shield giving long lasting protection Mix & Match Like a room fragrancer Variety of smells – fragrances that can be blended or Individually applied so can be flexible with your mood Invisible Shield Not white but skin toned so it didn’t show on dark clothing Cream that absorbed rapidly and would be totally odourless Creative Individualists’ Ideas and Resulting Concepts: New Female Deodorant Usage Ideas – Creatives (Women)
  • 28. QuiFresh All over deodorizing shower gel using extracts of Aloe and citrus. Automatically deodorizes everywhere A two sided bottle with the liquid in the middle, one side like usual shower gel and the other side with a grill which the gel comes out of evenly for underarm application Sweet Individual Protecting against odour Reacting with your skin’s own oils to produce a unique pleasing scent Creative Individualists’ Ideas and Resulting Concepts: New Female Deodorant Usage Ideas – Creatives (Women)
  • 29. Smelly or Pit Stop Funky and trendy with all ages. Bringing health benefits Different smells e.g smelly petal, smelly berry Powder ball Don't like roll-ons because they leave you wet & sticky Don't like sprays; not good for the environment How about a roller ball dry powder roll on ? No wetness , no spray CFCs, & easy to use. Creative Individualists’ Ideas and Resulting Concepts: New Female Deodorant Usage Ideas – Creatives (Women)
  • 30. Mousse deodorant Leaving no marks Long lasting Leaving silky soft skin. Creative Individualists’ Ideas and Resulting Concepts: New Female Deodorant Usage Ideas – Creatives (Women)
  • 31. Fresh and Bare Antiperspirant deodorant Inhibiting underarm hair growth Leaving skin smooth Bare armpits with none of the hassle 24/7 Protecting day and night with one easy application Selection of natural and perfume fragrances Handbag size No whitening of skin/clothing on application Clear Product with a clear bottle so that you can see how much product is left Creative Individualists’ Ideas and Resulting Concepts: New Female Deodorant Usage Ideas – Creatives (Women)
  • 32. Full Stop Increasing effect to match demand Time release capsules Unisex offers New Male Deodorant Usage Ideas – Creatives (Men) Impact Keep both feet and shoes smelling fresh with deo inlays! Out with the cheese and in with the pleasant smell!! DryTec Let the skin breathe! Odour and healthy skin control! Copy and learn from high performance fabrics Shower and a towel in a can On-the-go solution: spray on cleanser, towel off then spray deo Anti-perspirant body wash & deo 2-in-1 Plain transparent container, to see how much is left Small enough to slip into gym bag The Invisible Deo Odourless, unnoticeable Essence Easy, no-mess application / non-staining Good for the skin / anti-bacterial / moisturising Effective over a long period Environmentally friendly design, pleasant smelling Non-disposable cartridge-refillable roll-on Lavender, Rose or Neroli Miniature key ring size deo Sahara Anti-perspirant, incredibly effective Long-lasting fragrance matching more exclusive men's fragrances Night & Day Bottle in two parts: Metallic Blue & Yellow/Orange 2 different scents: light and fresh, deep & masculine
  • 33. Screening concept ideas: ‘Let the Market Decide’ 15 ideas in a Predictive Market where 500 select the most Potent
  • 34. The Wisdom of Crowds How the Many Can Be Smarter than the Few, James Surowiecki (2004)
  • 35. Galton’s surprise findings collective guess = 1197 lbs actual weight = 1198 lbs
  • 36. IEM - The original Predictive Market X 596 Polls (1988 - 2000)  ¾
  • 37. The Experiments Monadic Test of 10 concepts & matched targeted samples of 100 A Predictive Market with the same 10 concepts & a diverse ‘crowd’ of 500
  • 38. How Brainjuicer Predictive Markets work Tested 15 ideas with a convenience sample of 500 answering for how they believe the market would react Share the game with them , “imagine you owned shares in all these ideas..., which one would you sell + diagnostics & why and which one would you double your shares in and why?” Aggregated buy/sell scores accurately sorts ‘wheat from chaff’, purchase projection indicates the ‘grade of wheat’ & the rich quali-quant diagnostics provide creative direction Works across cultures with universal net preference scores
  • 39. Experiment: Top 2 Box Purchase Intention Results for 10 HPC Ideas in UK A diverse crowd will be as accurate as a targeted sample A ‘Predictive Market’ will be as accurate as a monadic test Answering for the market as accurate as answering for oneself New Product Concepts Monadic Test with matched samples of 100 in the target market Predictive Market with diverse group of 500 people Significant Differences A 85 85   B 83 76 + C 81 80   D 78 86   E 74 70   UK Norms (top two box) 67 67 67 F 64 28 *** G 64 28 *** H 54 35 * I 49 45 J 43 16 ***
  • 40. First Exposure to Predictive Markets Breaking Paradigms ! Conventional Approach Focus on consumer reactions / Users Test among target segment Understand consumers’ personal motivations/ reactions New Approach Testing relying on the Wisdom of the Crowds: Large, diverse crowd that scores independently, faithfully aggregated Respondent considers how the market will react, and not personal reactions (projective technique) High incidence on non-category users (65% do not use Plug-ins)
  • 41. Let the Market select Monadic Test Less differentiation Over-rewards the mediocre Scores vary by culture More expensive samples Costly to test many ideas 5-6 week turn process Predictive Markets Sorts ‘wheat from the chaff’ Can also grade the ‘wheat’ More comparable cross-culture Cheaper convenience sample VFM way to test many ideas 2-3 week process
  • 42. Deo ideas in the Predictive Market’ 15 ideas in a Predictive Market where 500 select the most Potent
  • 43. % Doubling and Selling Shares in Each Idea – Male Sample: 500 Einstein represents ideas inspired by the Creative 6’ers™ Bars represent a breakdown of the % buying and % selling each idea Net preference score sorts wheat from chaff to reveals which concepts have real potential ?   ? ? ? ? ? -10 -5 -5 -4 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 5 19 Net Preference:
  • 44. % Doubling and Selling Shares in Each Idea – Female Sample: 503 ?      ? ? ? ? ? Einstein represents ideas inspired by the Creative 6’ers™ Bars represent a breakdown of the % buying and % selling each idea Net preference score sorts wheat from chaff to reveals which concepts have real potential Net Preference: -17 -7 -5 -4 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 6 14
  • 45. A shift towards “culture of innovation” AXE R&D CSI DOVE AXE CTI
  • 46. Translating the ideas to mixes and we are introducing them to the markets! NAME AXE DAY & AXE NIGHT FRAGRANCES Day – Have Fun (Givaudan) With citrus, fruity & woody notes, a fragrance which responds to one definition: A subtle fragrance for playing the mating game in public during the day. Night - Laikipia (Firmenich) With woody, oriental & spicy notes, it has one objective: A mysterious fragrance for one on one mating game in the night. Insight & communication You need different tactics & weapons for each moment. That’s why now you’ve got Axe Day & Night , 2 fragrances, one for each moment.