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THE 2012 ATLANTIC BASIN
HURRICANE SEASON SUDDENLY
BECAME ACTIVE WITH
  4 ADDITIONAL HURRICANES
         SECOND HALF
  September 5 –November 30, 2012
2012’S STORM TRACKS
   (as of September 8)
2012 ATLANTIC BASIN STORM
   TRACKS AS OF OCT. 16
NAMED STORMS IN 2012
            (Continued)
•   ISAAC – Hurricane, August 21
•   JOYCE –Tropical Storm, Aug. 25
•   KIRK –Hurricane, Aug. 27
•   LESLIE –Hurricane, Sept. 3
•   MICHAEL – Hurricane, Sept. 4
•   NADINE – Tropical Storm, Sept. 12
NAMED STORMS IN 2012

•   OSCAR – Tropical Storm, Oct. 4
•   PATTY – Tropical Storm, Oct. 11
•   RAFAEL – Hurricane, Oct. 12
•   SANDY – Tropical Storm, Oct. 22
•   TONY
•   VALERIE
•   WILLIAM
The 2012 season is lagging behind
            past seasons:
By Sept. 5, 2005, we had three major
   hurricanes (Dennis, Emily, and
  Katrina),and by Sept. 5, 2011, we
  had one major hurricane (Katia).
  This year, we have one-- Michael.
ISAAC: FROM TS ON AUG, 21
 TO HURRICANE ON AUG. 26
ISAAC DID NOT RETURN IN THE
 GULF AS TS NADINE: SEPT 12
LESLIE: FROM A TS ON SEPT
3 TO HURRICANE ON SEPT 5
SEPT 8: CAT 1 HURRICANE
   LESLIE IS HEADED
 SLOWLY NORTHWARD
TOWARDS BERMUDA AND
         CANADA
SEPT 9: LESLIE PASSES 120
 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA
TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL:
FAR OUT IN ATLANTIC—SEPT. 4
Between 5 a.m. on Wednesday
and 5 a.m. Thursday, Michael’s
 pressure suddenly fell 40 mb
 and the maximum sustained
 winds increased by 63 mph,
  truly a remarkable case of
     rapid intensification
MICHAEL BECOMES CAT 3
  HURRICANE: SEPT. 6
Michael, the 7th hurricane of
 2012 and located 980 miles
west-southwest of the Azores
 and heading northeast at 7
 mph, will likely weaken as it
 encounters colder waters..
MICHAEL’S PATH: SEPT. 6
MICHAEL’S ULTIMATE PATH
On Sept. 7th, the seasonal
ACE (Accumulated Cyclone
  Energy) (using the 1981-
2010 data base), stood at 61,
   or 143% of an average
         season.
BUT---
ON SEPTEMBER 12, 2012
 A LULL IN ACTIVITY OCCURED
                AS
    EL NINO BEGAN AGAIN
SEPT. 12: EL NINO BEGINS
          AGAIN
Depending on how quickly El
 Niño develops, there could be
 a quick shutdown of tropical
 systems during the latter part
 of the Atlantic season and an
extended season on the Pacific
              side.
TROPICAL STORM NADINE:
       SEPT. 12
TROPICAL STORM NADINE
   BECAME A CAT 1
HURRICANE ON SEPT. 14 th




 Because of its location in the Azores,
Nadine, the 8th hurricane of the season,
 did not cause any major concerns in
    spite of its unusually long life.
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR
 FORMED WEST OF THE CAPE
 VERDE ISLANDS ON OCT. 4th


Oscar, the 15th storm of 2012, was not
expected to last very long or to cause
         any major problems.
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR
  DIED ON OCTOBER 5
TROPICAL STORM PATTY
FORMED NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS ON OCT. 11th


Patty is the 16th storm of 2012.
TROPICAL STORM PATTY
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL
 FORMED ON OCT. 12TH



Rafael was the 18th storm and 9th
    hurricane of the season
HURRICANE RAFAEL: A CAT
 1 STORM ON OCTOBER 16
TROPICAL STORM SANDY
    FORMED ON OCT. 22ND



Sandy, whose future is still uncertain,
  was the 19th storm of the season
TROPICAL STORM SANDY:
      OCTOBER 22
CAT I HURRICANE SANDY:
       OCTOBER 24
OCTOBER 24:
CAT I HURRRICANE SANDY MADE
LANDFALL NEAR KINGSTON, THE
     CAPITOL, IN BERMUDA

Schools and businesses were closed
and people in low-lying areas under a
    flood watch were evacuated
OCTOBER 24

    Sandy, now the season’s ninth
 hurricane, is a huge storm with wind
and rain bands reaching out 330 km or
more from the storm center, producing
  15-50 cm of rain in Bermuda, Haiti,
   Dominican Republic, and Cuba
LIKELY IMPACTS OF SANDY ON
“FLORIDA SATURDAY”-- OCTOBER 27

• Miami, Florida, which is already water-
  logged from 1 ½ meters of rain this
  summer, is expected to experience
  more rain, gusty winds, huge waves,
  and dangerous rip tides as a likely
  weakened Sandy continues to move
  northward.
FORECAST FOR SANDY:
    OCTOBER 24
POSSIBILITIES AFTER
    “FLORIDA SATURDAY”
• Sandy could veer northeastward and
  eventually die in the Atlantic.
• Or, Sandy could become a powerful
  Nor’easter as it moves northward along
  the Eastern US seaboard
CUMMULATIVE IMPACTS

          66 DEATHS
ECONOMIC LOSSES: $2.577 BILLION

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The 2012 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Suddenly Became Active With 4 Additional Hurricanes Second Half September 5 – November 30, 2012

  • 1. THE 2012 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON SUDDENLY BECAME ACTIVE WITH 4 ADDITIONAL HURRICANES SECOND HALF September 5 –November 30, 2012
  • 2. 2012’S STORM TRACKS (as of September 8)
  • 3. 2012 ATLANTIC BASIN STORM TRACKS AS OF OCT. 16
  • 4. NAMED STORMS IN 2012 (Continued) • ISAAC – Hurricane, August 21 • JOYCE –Tropical Storm, Aug. 25 • KIRK –Hurricane, Aug. 27 • LESLIE –Hurricane, Sept. 3 • MICHAEL – Hurricane, Sept. 4 • NADINE – Tropical Storm, Sept. 12
  • 5. NAMED STORMS IN 2012 • OSCAR – Tropical Storm, Oct. 4 • PATTY – Tropical Storm, Oct. 11 • RAFAEL – Hurricane, Oct. 12 • SANDY – Tropical Storm, Oct. 22 • TONY • VALERIE • WILLIAM
  • 6. The 2012 season is lagging behind past seasons: By Sept. 5, 2005, we had three major hurricanes (Dennis, Emily, and Katrina),and by Sept. 5, 2011, we had one major hurricane (Katia). This year, we have one-- Michael.
  • 7. ISAAC: FROM TS ON AUG, 21 TO HURRICANE ON AUG. 26
  • 8. ISAAC DID NOT RETURN IN THE GULF AS TS NADINE: SEPT 12
  • 9. LESLIE: FROM A TS ON SEPT 3 TO HURRICANE ON SEPT 5
  • 10. SEPT 8: CAT 1 HURRICANE LESLIE IS HEADED SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARDS BERMUDA AND CANADA
  • 11. SEPT 9: LESLIE PASSES 120 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA
  • 12. TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL: FAR OUT IN ATLANTIC—SEPT. 4
  • 13. Between 5 a.m. on Wednesday and 5 a.m. Thursday, Michael’s pressure suddenly fell 40 mb and the maximum sustained winds increased by 63 mph, truly a remarkable case of rapid intensification
  • 14. MICHAEL BECOMES CAT 3 HURRICANE: SEPT. 6
  • 15. Michael, the 7th hurricane of 2012 and located 980 miles west-southwest of the Azores and heading northeast at 7 mph, will likely weaken as it encounters colder waters..
  • 18. On Sept. 7th, the seasonal ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) (using the 1981- 2010 data base), stood at 61, or 143% of an average season.
  • 19. BUT--- ON SEPTEMBER 12, 2012 A LULL IN ACTIVITY OCCURED AS EL NINO BEGAN AGAIN
  • 20. SEPT. 12: EL NINO BEGINS AGAIN
  • 21. Depending on how quickly El Niño develops, there could be a quick shutdown of tropical systems during the latter part of the Atlantic season and an extended season on the Pacific side.
  • 23. TROPICAL STORM NADINE BECAME A CAT 1 HURRICANE ON SEPT. 14 th Because of its location in the Azores, Nadine, the 8th hurricane of the season, did not cause any major concerns in spite of its unusually long life.
  • 24. TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORMED WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ON OCT. 4th Oscar, the 15th storm of 2012, was not expected to last very long or to cause any major problems.
  • 25. TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DIED ON OCTOBER 5
  • 26. TROPICAL STORM PATTY FORMED NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS ON OCT. 11th Patty is the 16th storm of 2012.
  • 28. TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORMED ON OCT. 12TH Rafael was the 18th storm and 9th hurricane of the season
  • 29. HURRICANE RAFAEL: A CAT 1 STORM ON OCTOBER 16
  • 30. TROPICAL STORM SANDY FORMED ON OCT. 22ND Sandy, whose future is still uncertain, was the 19th storm of the season
  • 31. TROPICAL STORM SANDY: OCTOBER 22
  • 32. CAT I HURRICANE SANDY: OCTOBER 24
  • 33. OCTOBER 24: CAT I HURRRICANE SANDY MADE LANDFALL NEAR KINGSTON, THE CAPITOL, IN BERMUDA Schools and businesses were closed and people in low-lying areas under a flood watch were evacuated
  • 34. OCTOBER 24 Sandy, now the season’s ninth hurricane, is a huge storm with wind and rain bands reaching out 330 km or more from the storm center, producing 15-50 cm of rain in Bermuda, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Cuba
  • 35. LIKELY IMPACTS OF SANDY ON “FLORIDA SATURDAY”-- OCTOBER 27 • Miami, Florida, which is already water- logged from 1 ½ meters of rain this summer, is expected to experience more rain, gusty winds, huge waves, and dangerous rip tides as a likely weakened Sandy continues to move northward.
  • 36. FORECAST FOR SANDY: OCTOBER 24
  • 37. POSSIBILITIES AFTER “FLORIDA SATURDAY” • Sandy could veer northeastward and eventually die in the Atlantic. • Or, Sandy could become a powerful Nor’easter as it moves northward along the Eastern US seaboard
  • 38. CUMMULATIVE IMPACTS 66 DEATHS ECONOMIC LOSSES: $2.577 BILLION