Investor presentation sept.oct_2010_r
- 1. Intact Financial Corporation (IFC) Investor Presentation Fall 2010
- 2. 2 Forward-looking statements Important notes: All references to direct premiums written (“DPW”) in this document exclude industry pools, unless otherwise noted. All references to “excess capital” in this document include excess capital in the P&C insurance subsidiaries at 170% minimum capital test (“MCT”) plus liquid assets in the holding company, unless otherwise noted. Catastrophe claims are any one claim, or group of claims, equal to or greater than $5.0 million, related to a single event. All underwriting results and related ratios exclude the MYA, except if noted otherwise. Certain of the statements in this document about the company’s current and future plans, expectations and intentions, results, levels of activity, performance, goals or achievements or any other future events or developments constitute forward-looking statements. The words “may”, “will”, “would”, “should”, “could”, “expects”, “plans”, “intends”, “trends”, “indications”, “anticipates”, “believes”, “estimates”, “predicts”, “likely” or “potential” or the negative or other variations of these words or other similar or comparable words or phrases, are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are based on estimates and assumptions made by management based on management’s experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions and expected future developments, as well as other factors that management believes are appropriate in the circumstances. Many factors could cause the company’s actual results, performance or achievements or future events or developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward- looking statements, including, without limitation, the following factors: the company’s ability to implement its strategy or operate its business as management currently expects; its ability to accurately assess the risks associated with the insurance policies that the company writes; unfavourable capital market developments or other factors which may affect the company’s investments and funding obligations under its pension plans; the cyclical nature of the P&C insurance industry; management’s ability to accurately predict future claims frequency; government regulations; litigation and regulatory actions; periodic negative publicity regarding the insurance industry; intense competition; the company’s reliance on brokers and third parties to sell its products; the company’s ability to successfully pursue its acquisition strategy; its ability to execute its business strategy; the company’s participation in the Facility Association (a mandatory pooling arrangement among all industry participants); terrorist attacks and ensuing events; the occurrence of catastrophic events; the company’s ability to maintain its financial strength ratings; the company’s ability to alleviate risk through reinsurance; the company’s ability to successfully manage credit risk (including credit risk related to the financial health of reinsurers); the company’s reliance on information technology and telecommunications systems; the company’s dependence on key employees; general economic, financial and political conditions; the company’s dependence on the results of operations of its subsidiaries; the volatility of the stock market and other factors affecting the company’s share price; and future sales of a substantial number of its common shares. All of the forward-looking statements included in this document are qualified by these cautionary statements. These factors are not intended to represent a complete list of the factors that could affect the company; however, these factors should be considered carefully, and readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements made herein. The company and management have no intention and undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
- 3. 3 Canada’s leader in auto, home and business insurance $4.2 $3.4 $2.2 $2.1 $1.9 • Dominant P&C insurer in Canada • Over $4 billion in direct premiums written • #1 in Ontario, Québec, Alberta, Nova Scotia • Substantial size and scale advantage • 11 successful acquisitions since 1988 • $8.2 billion cash and invested assets Who we are Scale advantage Distinct brands 11.0% 8.8% 5.8% 5.5% 4.9% Market share 2009 Direct premiums written1 ($ billions) Aviva Canada Co-operators General RSA Top five insurers represent 36% of the market TD Meloche 1 Industry data source: MSA Research excluding Lloyd’s, ICBC, SGI, SAF, MPI and Genworth 2 Combined ratio includes the market yield adjustment (MYA) 3 ROE is for Intact’s P&C insurance subsidiaries Intact Premium growth Combined ratio2 Return on equity3 1.7 pts 3.8 pts 7.5 pts IFC outperformance 10-year performance – IFC vs. P&C Industry1 Industry outperformer
- 4. 4 Consistent industry outperformance Source: MSA Research 2009 Data in both charts are for the year ended December 31, 2009 Industry results exclude Lloyd’s, ICBC, SAF, SGI, MPI, Genworth and Mutuals in Quebec Includes market yield adjustment (MYA) Significant scale advantage Sophisticated pricing and underwriting Multi-channel distribution Proven acquisition track record In-house claims expertise Broker relationships 104.8% 99.7% 96% 98% 100% 102% 104% 106% Top 10 (average) Cdn. P&C industry average =101.7% 61.6% 71.5% 71.3% 72.5% 65.1% 54.8% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% Auto PersonalProperty CommercialP&C Industry Intact 2009 combined ratios Five-year average loss ratios
- 5. 5 We continued to outperform the industry in H1-2010 • Net operating income of $231 million or 42.7% higher than last year due to improved underwriting performance • Solid overall combined ratio of 93.5% • Growth of 5.3% based on contributions from all lines of business • Operating return on equity of nearly 12% for the last 12 months • Year-to-date 2010 annualized operating return on equity of 15.4% 94.8% 99.7% 90% 93% 96% 99% 102% 105% Combined ratio (including MYA) Intact Top 20 Operating highlights: 2010 year-to-date Comparison with Canadian P&C industry1 benchmark 16.3% 9.6% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Return on equity 5.0% 4.5% 3% 4% 5% 6% Direct premiums written growth* 1. Industry data source: MSA Research excluding Lloyd’s and Genworth * Difference versus 5.3% due to exclusion of industry pools
- 6. 6 Q2-2010 Financial highlights (in $ millions, except as otherwise noted) Direct premiums written (excl. pools) Net underwriting income Net operating income per share (dollars) Earnings per share (dollars) $1,317.8 $66.3 $1.03 $1.04 Combined ratio 93.7% Q2-2009Q2-2010 $1,250.6 $43.2 $0.77 $0.62 95.7% • Underwriting results driven by improvements in personal property and commercial P&C • Solid underwriting performance, coupled with healthy investment income, resulted in 12-month operating ROE of 11.7%, despite strong storm activity in the past 12 months Change 5.4% 53.5% 67.7% (2.0) pts Trailing 12-month operating ROE 11.7% 10.9% 0.8 pts 33.8% $2,232.1 $135.3 $1.97 $2.05 93.5% YTD-2009YTD-2010 $2,119.4 $51.1 $1.35 $0.32 97.4% Change 5.3% 164.8% 540.6% (3.9) pts 45.9%
- 7. 7 Strong financial position and excess capital $8.2 billion in cash and invested assets • Excess capital position of $766 million, based on 170% MCT • As at June 30, 2010, the debt to total capital ratio was 14.6%. Based on a debt to total capital ratio of 20%, approximately $227 million of additional debt capacity remains • Board authorized up to 10% of total shares NCIB (56.5% complete as of August 31, 2010) • Solid ratings from A.M. Best, Moody’s and DBRS • Adequate claims reserves evidenced by consistent favourable development High-quality investment portfolio All figures as at June 30, 2010 unless otherwise noted 1 Excess capital over MCT of 170% 2 At 20% debt-to-total capital. Remaining debt capacity at June 30, 2010 Total acquisition capacity Approx. $1.0 b Excess capital at June 30, 20101 $766 Remaining debt capacity2 $227 Acquisition capacity ($ millions) • 98.3% of bonds are rated A or better • 77.9% of preferred shares are rated ‘P1’ or ‘P2’ • Minimal U.S. exposure • No leveraged investments Strong balance sheet (without issuing equity) Preferred shares 18.6% Cash and short term notes 3.9% Fixed income 62.7% Loans 4.1% Common shares 10.7% Invested asset mix is net of hedging positions
- 8. 8 12-month outlook: Industry pricing environment firming up in Canada Personal lines Commercial lines Capital • Premiums in personal lines increasing due to cost inflation Recent escalation in the costs of BI and AB claims should subside as a result of the September Ontario auto reforms; however, we expect further rate increases as industry premiums remain inadequate Home insurance premiums continue to increase reflecting the impact of more frequent and/or severe storms • Pricing conditions remain soft; signs in the past nine months that pricing has begun to firm up in segments where we operate. We do not expect meaningful acceleration in the near term. • Capital markets remain volatile, as economic data (particularly outside of Canada) raise questions about the sustainability of the global recovery • Low investment yields could influence higher premiums across the industry • Debt and equity capital markets are currently open allowing companies to raise capital at reasonable rates • Global capital requirements are becoming more stringent, whereas changes in requirements for Canadian P&C are likely to remain neutral overall Personal lines growth picking up speed Organic growth potential in commercial lines as pricing hardens and industry capacity shrinks Strong capital base to participate in industry consolidation
- 9. 9 Ontario auto reforms are now in place Context Implementation • Capping medical/rehabilitation and assessment/ examination expenses for minor injuries to $3,500. • Providing standard medical and rehabilitation coverage for non-catastrophic claims of $50,000, with optional coverage of $100,000 or $1,100,000. • Offering standard attendant care coverage for non- catastrophic claims of $36,000, with optional coverage of $72,000 or $1,072,000. • Supplying optional caregiver, housekeeping and home maintenance benefits for non-catastrophic claimants. • Capping each assessment to $2,000 – this applies for all assessments. • Eliminating rebuttal examinations. Key features • Accident benefits and tort-related bodily injury cost increases (AB inflation: 19% in last four years) have resulted in the industry raising rates by 20% since January 2008. • We estimate that the combined ratio of the industry exceeds 110% and that premiums remain inadequate. • Ontario drivers pay 5% of disposable income for auto insurance compared to 3% in other provinces. • In March 2010, new regulations providing choice to consumers and controlling costs were approved and became effective September 1, 2010. Risks • Political in nature, as many customers will receive renewals for less coverage but with increased rates. • FSCO estimates claims cost reduction of 6% upon implementation and reduced inflation going forward. • Coverage reforms will kick-in on policies that will renew only after Sept. 1, 2010. • Procedural reforms have impacted claims since Sept. 1, 2010. • Accidents reported after Aug. 31, 2010 are subject to reforms.
- 10. 10 Four distinct avenues for growth Personal lines • Ontario auto rate increases accelerating • Home insurance premiums also on the rise Commercial lines • Evidence of price hardening in Ontario • Opportunity to gain share in middle market Benefit from firming market conditions Consolidate Canadian P&C market Develop existing platforms Capital • Approx. $1.0 billion of total acquisition capacity Strategy • Grow areas where IFC has a competitive advantage Opportunities • Global capital requirements becoming more stringent • Industry underwriting results remain challenged • Continued difficulties in global capital markets Principles • Financial guideposts: long-term customer growth, IRR>20% • Stepped approach with limited near-term capital outlay • Build growth pipeline with meaningful impact in 5+ years Strategy • Enter new market in auto insurance by leveraging strengths: (1) pricing, (2) claims, (3) online expertise Opportunities • Emerging markets or unsophisticated mature markets • Continue to expand support to our broker partners • Expand and grow belairdirect and Grey Power • Transform BrokerLink by leveraging scale Expand beyond existing markets
- 11. 11 Strong organic growth potential through multi-channel distribution #1 Broker insurance company in Canada 1/3 Canadians to buy insurance online1 Targeting growing 50+ population Leveraging scale in distribution • #1 brand awareness in ON and PQ • Growing at 10%+ per year • Operating in ON and PQ • Leveraging explosive growth of the internet • Operating in ON and AB • Double-digit growth in 2009 • Web and call centres • Network of more than 1,800 brokers in Canada • Brokers in Canada own the commercial market and maintain large share of personal lines • Many customers prefer the personalized service and choice offered by a broker or agent 1 World Insurance Report, Capgemini. 1 in 10 customers say they use the internet to buy insurance, 1 in 3 wants to use it to buy insurance within 3 years In 10 yrs, 25% of the Canadian population will be 50 years+ Growth opportunity: expand support to our broker partners Growth opportunity: expand market share Growth opportunity: geographic expansion potential Growth opportunity: leverage scale in sales, marketing and technology • Proprietary brokers with $400 million in direct premiums written and approximately 174,000 customers • More than 45 offices in ON and AB
- 12. 12 Recent accolades Intact Insurance Highest in Customer Satisfaction among Québec Automotive Insurance Providers1 Grey Power Highest in Customer Satisfaction among Private Full-Coverage Automotive Insurance Providers1 Intact Financial Corporation Insurance Company of the Year 2010, Canada2 1. J.D. Power and Associates 2010 Canadian Auto Insurance Customer Satisfaction StudySM 2. World Finance Insurance Awards 2010, World Finance magazine
- 13. 13 Conclusion Disciplined pricing, underwriting, investment and capital management have positioned us well for the future • Largest P&C insurance company with substantial scale advantage in the market • Strong financial position • Excellent long-term earnings power • Organic growth platforms easily expandable • M&A environment more conducive to consolidation • Well-positioned as industry pricing conditions continue to improve
- 14. Appendices
- 15. 15 Independent broker, 67% Direct, 20% Agent, 13% P&C insurance is a $39 billion market in Canada Commercial other, 8.4% Automobile, 46.3% Home insurance, 18.4% Commercial P&C, 26.9% 3% of GDP in Canada OSFI = Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Industry DPW by line of business Eastern Provinces & Territories, 7% British Columbia,9% Prairies, 3% Ontario, 47% Quebec, 17% Alberta, 17% Industry - Premiums by province • Fragmented market, top five less than 36%, versus bank/lifeco markets which are closer to oligopoly • Brokers continue to own commercial lines and large share of personal lines in Canada; direct-to-consumer channel growing • Barriers to entry – scale, regulation, manufacturing capability, market knowledge • Home/business insurance rates unregulated; personal auto rates regulated in some provinces • Capital is regulated nationally by OSFI • 30-year ROE for the industry is approximately 10% Brokers dominate; direct growing1 1 Industry data source: MSA data excluding Lloyd’s, ICBC, SAF, SGI, MPIC, Genworth, Promutual Re and Mutuals in Quebec. All data as at the end of 2009.
- 16. 16 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 P&C industry 10-year performance versus IFC IFC competitive advantages Data in all charts as at December 31, 2009 OSFI = Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions 1Industry data source: MSA Research. excluded Lloyd’s, ICBC, SGI, SAF, MPI 2ROE is for Intact’s P&C insurance subsidiaries Combined ratio Direct written premium growth • Significant scale advantage • Sophisticated pricing and underwriting • In-house claims expertise • Multi-channel distribution • Broker relationships • Investment expertise • Management continuity Return on equity Industry 10-year avg.1 = 9.9% 10-year avg. = 17.4%2 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 115% 120% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 10-year CAGR = 8.5% Industry1 10-year CAGR = 6.8% Canadian P&C industry1 10-year avg. = 99.8% 10-year avg. = 96.0%
- 17. 17 Canadian private, 10% IFC, 11% Bank-owned, 8% Canadian mutuals, 11% Canadian public (excl. IFC), 7%Foreign-owned public, 35% Non-top 20, 18% Top 20 P&C insurers = 82% of market M&A environment Environment more conducive to acquisitions now than in recent years: • Industry ROEs, although improved from trough levels of mid-2009, are well below prior peak • Foreign parent companies are generally in less favourable capital position Acquisition strategy Further consolidation in Canadian P&C market likely • Targeting large-scale acquisitions of $500 million or more (direct premiums written) • Pursuing acquisitions in lines of business where we have expertise • Acquisition target IRR of 15% • Targets: − Bring loss ratio of acquired book of business to our average loss ratio within 18-24 months − Bring expense ratio to 2 pts below IFC ratio Approximate Size of Acquisition (DPW) (1) ($ millions) Allianz Canada (Personal and Small to Medium Commercial Lines) 2004 600 Zurich (Personal and Small Commercial Lines) 2001 510 Pafco (Niche Products) 1999 40 Guardian 1998 630 Canada Surety Personal Lines (Selected Provinces) 1997 30 Wellington 1995 370 St. Maurice 1994 30 Constitution 1992 30 Metropolitan General 1991 10 Commerce Group/belair 1989 290 Western Union 1988 60 Acquisition Year of Acquisition Source: MSA Research; excluding Lloyd’s and Genworth (based on 2009 DWP)
- 18. 18 Automobile * Personal property Commercial P&C * Includes commercial auto 6.4 -1.2 6.8 Good progress to date made on value creation opportunity in home insurance Industry loss ratio advantage (percentage points) Favourable gap (five-year average) Target of 10-15 points by early 2011 + • Rate increases • Segmentation • Insurance-to-Value • Management of water damage • Limit exposure to sewer back-up • Claims review • Customer education and incentives on loss control and prevention Opportunity to create loss ratio advantage similar to other business lines • Double-digit premium increases through higher rates and insured amounts • Lower indemnity costs by 5% Progress-to-date • Roughly 12 points benefit to the combined ratio as at Q2-2010
- 19. 19 The July 12th Alberta hailstorm presented another opportunity to demonstrate our core values • Helped over 9,000 of our customers get back on track • Increased capacity of our call centres • Secured facilities for drive-in appraisal and paintless repair centres • Mobilized appraisers and adjusters from across the country Catastrophes in context • As a P&C insurer, catastrophes are a normal part of our business • Historically, catastrophe losses have represented approximately 2 percentage points of our combined ratio on an annual basis • The 2008-2009 period experienced both a higher frequency and a higher severity of catastrophic events • IFC’s product pricing attempts to reflect this higher recent level of activity • Catastrophic events create quarterly earnings’ volatility as their timing is unpredictable • ‘Normal’ quarterly run-rate is ~ $20 million: − Catastrophe losses in Q1-2010 = $0 − Catastrophe losses in Q2-2010 = $19.2 million Total impact on Q3-2010 financials stated to be up to $50 million of claims after reinsurance but before tax.
- 20. 20 Historical financials * The market yield adjustment (MYA) reflects the impact of changes in the discount rate applied to the company's claims liabilities, as determined by the market-based yield of the underlying assets. Income statement highlights Direct written premiums (excluding pools) $ 4,275 $ 4,146 $ 4,109 $ 3,994 $ 3,906 Underwriting income (excluding MYA*) 54 117 189 404 538 Net operating Income (excluding MYA*) 282 361 457 531 612 Net operating EPS (excluding MYA*) 2.35 2.96 3.61 3.97 4.58 Balance sheet highlights Total invested assets $ 7,997 $ 6,094 $ 7,223 $ 7,227 $ 6,707 Debt 400 0 0 0 127 Total shareholders' equity (ex-AOCI) 3,047 3,079 3,290 3,421 2,893 Performance metrics Loss ratio (excluding MYA*) 70.0 % 68.2 % 66.2 % 59.1 % 56.3 % Expense ratio 28.7 % 28.9 % 29.0% 30.3% 29.7% Combined ratio (excluding MYA*) 98.7% 97.1% 95.2% 89.4% 86.0% Net operating ROE (excl. AOCI) 9.2% 11.3% 13.6% 16.8% 24.7% Debt / Capital 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.2% Combined ratios by line of business (excl. MYA) Personal auto 94.9% 95.9% 94.5% 87.3% 78.8% Personal property 109.0% 113.6% 102.2% 100.0% 104.0% Commercial auto 79.8% 87.2% 93.7% 86.9% 87.0% Commercial P&C 104.1% 85.3% 90.1% 85.2% 86.4% 2008 2007 2006 20052009
- 21. 21 Strategic capital management • Strong capital base has allowed us to pursue our growth objectives while returning capital to shareholders $0.340 $0.310 $0.320 $0.1625 $0.250 $0.270 - 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 53.8% 8.0% 14.8%• Acquisitions • Dividends • Share buybacks Capital priorities • 2010 – Board authorized up to 10% of total shares NCIB (56.5% complete as of August 31, 2010) • 2008 – Repurchased 4.6 million shares for a total of $176 million • 2007 – $500 million Substantial Issuer Bid Share buyback history Quarterly dividend 3.2% 6.3%
- 22. 22 Asset class Quality: Approx. 77.9% rated P1 or P2 Federal government and agency Corporate Cdn. Provincial and municipal Supranational and foreign ABS/MBS Private placements TOTAL High-quality, dividend paying Canadian companies. Objective is to capture non- taxable dividend income Fixed income Quality: 98.3% of bonds rated A or better 33.7% 29.4% 26.1% 8.3% 2.4% 0.1% 100% Fixed perpetual Perpetual and callable floating and reset Fixed callable TOTAL 47% 31% 22% 100% 100% Canadian Canadian United States Int’l (excl. U.S.) TOTAL 88% 1% 11% 100% Cash and invested assets As of June 30, 2010 Preferred shares Common shares 100% Canadian
- 23. 23 Long-term track record of prudent reserving practices 4.9% 2.9% 4.0% 3.2% 7.9% 3.3% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Rate of claims reserve development (favourable prior year development as a % of opening reserves) Historical long-term average has been 3% to 4% per year • Quarterly and annual fluctuations in reserve development are normal • 2005/2006 reserve development was unusually high due to the favourable effects of certain auto insurance reforms introduced during that time period • This reflects our preference to take a conservative approach to managing claims reserves
- 24. 24 Experienced and united leadership team Years In Industry Years With IFC Brindamour, Charles President & CEO 18 18 Beaulieu, Martin SVP, Personal Lines 22 22 Black, Susan SVP, Chief HR Officer 3 3 Blair, Alan SVP, Atlantic Canada 26 15 Coull-Cicchini, Debbie SVP, Ontario 6 6 Désilets, Claude Chief Risk Officer 29 21 Gagnon, Louis President, Intact Insurance 18 4 Garneau, Denis SVP, Quebec 22 8 Guénette, Françoise SVP, Corporate & Legal Services 22 13 Guertin, Denis President, Direct to Consumers Distribution 25 25 Hindle, Byron SVP, Commercial Lines 32 11 Iles, Derek SVP, Western Canada 38 19 Lincoln, David SVP, Corporate Audit Services (Canada) 32 13 Ott, Jack SVP, Chief Information Officer 29 14 Pontbriand, Marc Executive Vice President 12 12 Provost, Marc SVP & Managing Director IIM and Chief Investment Officer 27 13 Tullis, Mark Chief Financial Officer 32 11 Weightman, Peter President, Canada Brokerlink 24 24
- 25. 25 Investor Relations contact information Dennis Westfall Director, Investor Relations Phone: 416.341.1464 ext 45122 Cell: 416.797.7828 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Phone: 416. 941.5336 or 1.866.778.0774 (toll-free within North America) Fax: 416.941.0006 www.intactfc.com/Investor Relations